5年期整存整取利率3年时间已经"腰斩"。 5月份，一场力度空前的存款利率调降风暴席卷整个民营银行圈。 据第一财经不完全统计，在19家民营银行中，15家银行在5月份完成降息动作，单月调降频次多达22 次，与过去"小步快跑"的微调不同，民营银行在5月底集体亮出"狠招"，多家银行断崖式降息。 此次调降之后，民营银行3个月、6个月、1年期整存整取全面步入"1时代"；2年期、3年期、5年期存款 利息普遍在2%以内，最高2.4%。其中，多家银行5年期存款已下架。 "民营银行的存款利率甚至已被部分城商行、农商行反超，正在沦为'利率洼地'。"一位业内人士称。 截至5月底，民营银行存款利率上限已全面降至2.4%，这也击碎了储户们对于高息存款的最后幻想。 据业内统计，在民营银行阵营中，3个月存款利率最高为1.5%、6个月最高为1.8%；1年期存款利率最高 为1.85%，2年期最高为2.4%；3年期和5年期存款利率最高的是华瑞银行，分别为2.4%、2.35%。 而当前民营银行存款利率上限已全面降至2.4%，也击碎了储户们对于高息存款的最后幻想。 降息"闪电战" 5月20日，六大国有银行宣布下调存款利率，股份行快速跟进，而过去往往" ...

路透调查：81位经济学家一致认为，欧洲央行将于6月5日将存款利率下调至2.00%。 ...

Core Insights - The recent adjustment in deposit rates has led banks to modify their medium to long-term large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) products, with many banks reducing rates below 2% [1][2] - The tightening of large-denomination CD issuance is attributed to the overall decline in market interest rates and the need for banks to manage funding costs effectively [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of late May, 18 banks, including 6 major state-owned banks and 12 national joint-stock banks, have largely removed 5-year large-denomination CDs from sale, while 3-year CDs remain available but with limited quotas for certain clients [1] - The highest rate for a 3-year large-denomination CD is 1.8% from Bohai Bank, while most joint-stock banks offer rates around 1.75%, and state-owned banks offer rates at 1.55% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration indicates that the net interest margin for Chinese commercial banks narrowed to 1.43% in Q1 2025, a decrease of nine basis points from the end of Q4 2024 [1] - In March 2025, the average interest rates for large-denomination CDs were reported as 1.719% for 1-year, 1.867% for 2-year, 2.197% for 3-year, and 2.038% for 5-year [2] Group 3: Broader Rate Cuts - Major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, and others, have collectively lowered their deposit rates, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate dropping below 1% to 0.95% and the current account rate falling to 0.05% [2] - Joint-stock banks have followed suit, with 1-year fixed deposit rates now at 1.15% and 2-year rates at 1.2%, while 3-year and 5-year rates have been adjusted to 1.3% and 1.35% respectively [2]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.45 with a -6.33bp change, DR007 at 1.62 with a -3.59bp change, GC001 at 1.77 with a 15.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.76 with a 4.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.64 with a 0.10bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.46, 1.54, and 1.72 respectively, with changes of 0.76bp, 1.12bp, and 0.51bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.51 with a -3.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 4480 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and a net investment of 910 billion yuan after 3570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [4] - There will be 9460 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, with 1570 billion, 1545 billion, and 1425 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday [5] - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6%); state - owned and some joint - stock banks cut deposit rates [5] Group 2: Stock Indexes and Market Conditions - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 3839, 2685, 5652, and 6008 respectively, with changes of -0.54%, -0.52%, -0.31%, and -0.34% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts closed at 3809, 2669, 5578, and an unspecified value respectively, with changes of -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.3%, and -0.2% [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM trading volumes were 75774, 39115, 74989, and 195063 respectively, with changes of -12.6%, -15.2%, -10.3%, and 5.2%; their positions were 240995, 81979, 209867, and 329034 respectively, with changes of 2.3%, 2.0%, 0.4%, and 3.2% [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 9989 billion yuan, a decrease of 110 billion yuan; the pesticide and veterinary medicine sector rose significantly, while consumer sectors led the gains, and precious metals, semiconductors and other sectors led the losses [6] - The market volume shrank again, and the stock indexes oscillated weakly; the US postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9 [7] - Stock indexes may continue to oscillate weakly; the probability of incremental policies and strong capital intervention in the short - term is low, and the market may enter a policy vacuum period [7] - Macro - level core indicators showed a decline in April, indicating that the effectiveness of previous growth - stabilizing policies was not obvious; it is advisable to observe stock indexes cautiously and pay attention to macro - incremental signals [7] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.96%, 12.43%, 0.02%, and 6.10% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.45%, 12.20%, 6.30%, and 3.70% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.95%, 18.47%, 14.81%, and 12.26% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 23.66%, 21.62%, 18.05%, and 15.38% respectively [8]

《金融时报》记者注意到，中小银行为吸引更多储蓄资源，在存款利率设置上通常要略高于全国性银行。在本次调整后，部分城商行定期存款挂牌利率与 绝大多数股份行保持一致，整体的利率优势已不再明显。 紧跟全国性银行的步伐，各家城商行正在陆续下调存款挂牌利率。 记者从北京银行（601169）官网了解到，自5月27日起，该行已执行新的存款挂牌利率。调整后，该行一年期、二年期、三年期、五年期整存整取定期存 款挂牌利率分别调整为1.15%、1.20%、1.30%、1.35%，与光大银行（601818）、中信银行（601998）等多家股份制银行存款挂牌利率保持一致。 | 人民币储蓄存款利率表 (2025年5月27日起执行) | | | --- | --- | | 各项存款 | 储蓄存款利率(%) | | 一、活期存款 | 0.05 | | 二、定期存款 | | | (一) 整存整取 | | | 三个月 | 0. 70 | | 半年 | 0. 95 | | 一年 | 1. 15 | | 二年 | 1. 20 | | 三年 | 1. 30 | | 五年 | 1. 35 | 自5月26日起，江苏银行（600919）也调整了人民币存款挂牌 ...

回顾:央行昨日开展了3820亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量3820亿元,中标量3820亿元。当日1350亿元逆回购到期,据此计算,单 日净投放2470亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场将有9460亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至下周五分 别到期3570亿元、1570亿元、1545亿元、1425亿元。5月20日贷款市场报价 利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.0%(上次为3.1%),5年期以上LPR为3.5%(上次为 3.6%)。与此同时,5月20日早间,国有大行和部分股份行陆续更新了存款 挂牌利率,这也是去年10月之后,存款利率时隔7个月再次下调,也是大行 自2022年9月以来第七次主动下调。此次调整后,国有大行活期存款利率跌 破0.1%,定期存款中1年期利率跌破1%。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3860 | -0.57 | IF当月 | 3831 | -0.4 | | 上证50 | 2699 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent reduction in deposit interest rates has two characteristics: a relatively large adjustment range and fast follow - up by banks, indicating significant net interest margin pressure on banks. For banks, on the asset side, the requirement for interest rate levels will decrease, and the motivation to allocate bonds will increase due to weak credit issuance and improved bond cost - effectiveness. However, on the liability side, the scale of funds flowing out of the balance sheet may be large, and the pressure on the liability side may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain. For generalized asset management, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds will increase, and the spread of 3Y credit bonds will narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, with the outflow process lasting 2 - 3 months. For investors, credit bonds are a more certain choice, and for interest - rate bonds, new marginal changes need to be observed. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Deposit Interest Rate Cut and Its Impact on the Bond Market - **Characteristics of the Current Cut**: The adjustment range is large. With the 1Y and 5Y LPR both cut by 10BP, the deposit interest rate cuts of large - scale banks are 15BP and 25BP respectively, higher than previous levels. Also, banks have followed up quickly. As of May 22, 2025, 12 joint - stock banks have completed the adjustment, and some city and rural commercial banks are following suit, reflecting the large net interest margin pressure on banks [13]. - **Impact on Institutional Behavior**: - **Banks**: On the asset side, after the deposit interest rate cut, the average liability cost of the six major banks is expected to decrease by 10.3BP. With a large number of fixed - term deposits maturing in the next two years, the liability - side cost pressure will further ease, and the requirement for asset - side yields will decrease. Also, weak credit issuance and the improved cost - effectiveness of bonds increase the motivation to allocate bonds. On the liability side, the large - scale deposit interest rate adjustment may lead to a significant outflow of funds, and the liability - side pressure may increase, making the scale of bond allocation uncertain [17][21][25]. - **Generalized Asset Management**: Referring to previous interest rate cuts, after funds flow out of the balance sheet, the demand for 1 - 3Y credit bonds increases, usually leading to a narrowing of the 3Y credit bond spread. The spread starts to narrow about 3 - 4 weeks after the interest rate cut, and the outflow process lasts 2 - 3 months [26]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Bond Market**: Credit bonds are a more certain choice for investors, supported by coupon advantages and increased demand from funds flowing out of the balance sheet. Interest - rate bonds are in an oscillating upward phase and need new marginal changes to determine the direction. Considering the possibility of further interest rate cuts this year, investors can gradually increase their allocation of 10Y Treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.7% [30]. 3.2 Institutional Bond Custody No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3 Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: In the week of May 19 - 23, 2025, liquidity slightly eased. R007 closed at 1.63%, unchanged from the previous week, DR007 closed at 1.59%, down 5BP from the previous week, and the 6 - month national - share transfer discount rate closed at 1.14%, down 4BP from the previous week [40]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 108,111.6 billion yuan, up 0.2% from the previous week. For generalized asset management, the net financing of fund companies and bank wealth management products was - 848 million yuan and - 5.326 billion yuan respectively [43]. 3.4 Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performance interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.53 and 5.09 respectively, increasing by 0.18 and 0.25 compared to the previous week [48]. - **Asset Scarcity Index**: The "asset scarcity" index slightly increased, with a smaller index value indicating looser liquidity, lower credit bond supply, and higher credit bond demand [58]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [61][65][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio remained unchanged at 106.8% this week. Among generalized asset management institutions, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 113.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week; the fund leverage ratio was 101.9%, down 0.4 percentage points; and the securities firm leverage ratio was 184.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [68]. - **Bank Self - investment Comparison Table**: A comparison table for bank self - investment is provided, showing the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and post - tax and risk - adjusted returns of various assets such as general loans, 10Y Treasury bonds, and 10Y local bonds [73]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The overall market wealth management product break - even rate slightly decreased this week, with the break - even rate of all products at 2.0% [78]. 3.6 Treasury Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [83]. 3.7 Generalized Asset Management Landscape No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022, and its impact on the bond market may not be fully priced. The main impact may be on financial disintermediation, which is beneficial to credit bonds. Although short - term frictions and government bond supply shocks increase the pressure on certificate of deposit (CD) supply, CD yields are expected to gradually decline. The bond market is expected to gradually recover after short - term fluctuations [2][6][56] Summary by Directory I. This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022 - Since 2021, China's deposit rate formation mechanism has been adjusted multiple times. In 2021, the deposit rate ceiling was changed from a multiple to a point - based system; in 2022, banks were required to adjust deposit rates with reference to the 10 - year Treasury yield and 1 - year LPR; in 2023, the central bank tightened its constraints on bank deposit rates [7][8][11] - The decline in deposit rates is often greater than that of policy rates. Due to the narrowing of bank spreads, the central bank cut interest rates in May 2025, pushing the LPR down by 10BP, followed by a new round of deposit rate cuts. This time, the deposit rate ceiling was cut by the largest margin since 2022, reflecting the central bank's goal of protecting bank spreads and promoting a decline in social financing costs [15][23][26] II. The impact of deposit rate adjustment on bank liabilities requires the cooperation of liquidity environment and asset - side shocks - The decline in deposit rates mainly causes structural impacts on bank liabilities, such as funds flowing from some banks to others or being used to buy non - bank products. However, this time, all types of banks cut rates simultaneously, so the impact on each bank is relatively smooth, and the main impact may be increased financial disintermediation [28] - For the impact on the entire banking system to expand, two conditions are generally required: tight liquidity and asset - side shocks. For example, in the second half of 2020, the reduction of structured deposits, combined with tight liquidity and increased supply of credit and government bonds, led to a significant increase in CD rates; in April 2024, after the ban on manual interest subsidies, large - bank deposits decreased, but the stable liquidity environment limited the increase in CD rates [29][30][32] III. The core contradiction of this deposit rate cut may still be financial disintermediation, and its impact has not been fully priced - From the perspective of the money market, although there were fluctuations after the RRR cut and interest rate cut, they can be attributed to exogenous factors such as government bond net financing and tax - period disturbances. The central bank's short - term target DR007 center may have dropped to the 1.5% - 1.6% range, and the spread between the money market rate and the policy rate has been narrowing since March, with the possibility of further narrowing in June [33][36] - From the asset side, the decline in bank credit in April may be due to weakening credit demand after the concentrated lending in the first quarter, rather than the replacement of credit by special refinancing bonds. There is still about 1.3 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be used after May, which may restrict new credit. The supply of government bonds in May increased, which, combined with the frictions caused by the deposit rate cut, may be the reason for the recent fluctuations in CD rates. However, the impact of government bond supply is expected to weaken marginally in the future [45][49][56]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 宏观金融数据日报 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3882 | -0.81 | IF当月 | 3846 | -0.9 | | 上证50 | 2712 | -0.80 | IH当月 | 2693 | -0.8 | | 中证500 | 5653 | -0.88 | IC当月 | 5562 | -0.9 | | 中证1000 | 5990 | -1.26 | IM当月 | 5872 | -1.3 | | IF成交量 | 110117 | 52.7 | IF持仓量 | 251143 | 7.7 | | IH成交量 | 51804 | 38.4 | IH持仓量 | 85531 | 9.0 | | IC成交量 | 98824 | 27.3 | IC持仓量 | 216012 | 4.0 | | IM成交量 | 233775 | 15.2 | IM持仓量 | 335860 | 1.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - A new round of deposit rate cuts has begun, with foreign banks following suit in reducing RMB deposit rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (China) announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates effective June 3, with the interest rate for demand deposits decreasing from 0.10% to 0.05% [1] - For time deposits, the rates for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year terms have been cut by 15 basis points, now standing at 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively [1] - The 3-year deposit rate has been reduced by 25 basis points, from 1.50% to 1.25% [1]