Core Viewpoint - The current external environment remains highly uncertain, and domestic growth stabilization policies should not be relaxed yet [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - It is expected that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with room for two types of LPR to decline within the year [1] - The recent reduction in deposit rates by state-owned banks is anticipated to lead other commercial banks to follow suit, resulting in an overall deposit rate decrease of approximately 0.11 to 0.13 percentage points [1] - This adjustment in deposit rates is expected to offset the impact of the LPR reduction on various loan rates, thereby stabilizing the banks' net interest margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts on deposits and loans by major banks signal a proactive approach by the government to lower financing costs for businesses and reduce the burden on residents, reflecting a commitment to stabilize economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have initiated the first round of deposit rate cuts this year, with the largest reductions of 25 basis points for three-year and five-year deposits, and one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% [1][3]. - The one-year LPR and five-year LPR have been reduced by 10 basis points, now standing at 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the first rate cut since 2025 [1][4]. - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than the LPR cut, which helps lower banks' funding costs and creates room for further LPR adjustments [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the dual reduction in LPR and deposit rates is a positive signal from policymakers aimed at stimulating effective financing demand and stabilizing credit levels amid external uncertainties [2][3]. - The recent monetary policy easing is expected to boost market risk appetite, as evidenced by the rise in A-share indices and the Hang Seng Index [1]. Group 3: Housing Loan Impact - The LPR cut directly affects mortgage rates, with the average mortgage rate expected to decrease to 3% following the 10 basis point reduction [6]. - For a 1 million loan over 30 years, the total repayment amount could decrease by approximately 20,000, with monthly payments reduced by about 55 [6]. - In Guangzhou, the actual mortgage rate remains unchanged at 3% due to adjustments in the banks' pricing strategies, despite the LPR cut [6][7].

Group 1: Market Activity - Net purchases included Meituan at 1.234 billion, China Mobile at 550 million, China Construction Bank at 499 million, and others, while net sales included Xiaomi Group at -310 million and Tencent Holdings at -306 million [1] - Southbound funds have recorded 11 consecutive days of net sales for Tencent, totaling 13.90601 billion HKD, and 3 consecutive days of net sales for Xiaomi, totaling 1.28491 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Sangfor Biopharma has reached a milestone agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707, involving an upfront payment of 1.25 billion and a total of 6.05 billion for global development and commercialization, setting a record for recent Chinese innovative drug licensing [4] - China Construction Bank and other major state-owned banks have announced a reduction in multiple terms of RMB deposit rates, with the three-year and five-year rates lowered by 25 basis points to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively [4] - Leap Motor reported a 187.1% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, reaching 10.02 billion RMB, driven by strong sales growth and optimized product structure, with a 4.9% increase in revenue per vehicle [4] Group 3: Product Launches - Xiaomi's Lei Jun announced that the Xiaomi玄戒O1, a self-developed 3nm flagship chip, has begun mass production, with two flagship products set to launch: the high-end Xiaomi 15s Pro smartphone and the ultra-high-end OLED Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting the impact of interest rate adjustments on both the stock and bond markets, as well as shifts in consumer spending behavior and preferences in entertainment activities. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume indicates significant divergence in market sentiment, with low volumes suggesting indecision and high volumes indicating consensus on price levels, leading to energy accumulation and release cycles [1] - The central bank conducted a 3.57 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 1.77 billion yuan, contributing to a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [1][2] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates and LPR (Loan Prime Rate) led to a slight increase in stock prices and a modest rise in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield moving to approximately 1.666% [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - In 2024, the average per capita consumption in the national catering sector decreased to 39.8 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, with the proportion of consumers increasing spending dropping from 50.0% in 2023 to 31.3% [4] - The contribution of the 20-39 age group to consumption growth has fallen from 30.3% to 19.1% since 2018, reflecting a shift in entertainment preferences towards more contemplative activities like park visits and City Walks [6] - A significant decline in traditional entertainment activities is noted, with KTV and bars experiencing a drop of 87% and 65% respectively, while activities like park visits and City Walks have seen substantial increases of 226% and 218% [8]

早盘速递 2025/5/20 热点资讯 1、4月份我国经济顶住压力稳定增长。国家统计局发布数据显示，今年4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，服务业 生产指数增长6%，社会消费品零售总额增长5.1%。1-4月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4%，扣除房地产开发投资后增长8%。数 据还显示，4月全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；1-4月全国房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，新建商品房 销售面积下降2.8%。 2、国家统计局发布70城房价数据显示，4月份，一、二线城市新房价格环比持平，三线城市略有下降，各线城市房价同比降幅 均持续收窄。新房价格环比上涨城市有22个，比上月减少2个，上海、大连新房价格环比涨幅全国第一；二手房价环比上涨城市 有5个，比上月减少5个，赣州二手房价环比涨幅居首。中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为，"小阳春"行情已经过去，市场进入 短暂的需求真空期。 4、巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）周一在一份报告中称，巴西2024/25年度大豆产量预估为1.697亿吨，此前预估为1.696亿 吨；大豆压榨量预估为5750万吨；将出口量预估小幅下调至1.082亿吨，此前为1.08 ...

Group 1 - Major state-owned banks have announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, affecting various products including demand deposits, time deposits, and notice deposits [1] - The market had anticipated this new round of deposit rate cuts, leading to a recovery in bond market sentiment, with interest rate products leading the gains [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, which will influence various interest rates including deposit and loan rates [2] Group 2 - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to lower market funding costs, potentially leading to a decline in yields for credit products as well [4] - The cut in deposit rates opens up spread opportunities for credit products, as lower deposit rates make these assets more scarce and increase their allocation space [4] - Investors are advised to focus on medium to long-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds as potential investment opportunities following the rate cuts [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is to defend and wait and see [2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is to be bullish in the short - term [4] 2. Core Views Stock Index - Trump talked with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Putin is willing to draft a peace memorandum with Ukraine, and Zelensky is also willing to sign a peace memorandum and conduct negotiations but refuses territorial compromise and withdrawal. Fed officials poured cold water on interest - rate cuts, hinting that rates may stay high until at least September. China's April social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, industrial added - value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1%, January - April urban fixed - asset investment rose 4%, and national real - estate development investment fell 10.3% year - on - year. China's Ministry of Commerce demanded the US to correct its actions. Without a clear market driver, the stock index may move in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The bond market is in an environment of weak economic recovery, and the trading logic is returning to pricing the endogenous economic momentum. The market's expectation of a deposit - rate cut is reasonable due to the narrowing net interest margin of banks. A new round of deposit - rate adjustment is a measure to match the decline in policy rates, and stabilizing the interest margin is a long - term task. The rumored cut in deposit rates is higher than that of policy rates, providing new support for the decline in yields [3] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock - index futures rose 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.15% respectively [6] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury - bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.0%, 0.03%, and 0.0% respectively [9] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible volatile movement with adjustment risks [7] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a volatile movement [10] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3843.20 | 0.05 | 48882 | 149439 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2688.80 | 0.05 | 27081 | 51445 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5623.00 | 0.09 | 51297 | 118428 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5975.40 | 0.15 | 140984 | 192261 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.61 | 0.02 | 57954 | 82926 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | - 0.00 | 42586 | 66890 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.32 | 0.03 | 43076 | 47914 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.38 | - 0.00 | 48335 | 87939 | [12]

本文字数：1424，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.05. 20 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 存最高仅为1.3%，即按照挂牌利率不上浮，继续保持倒挂状态。 此次存款利率调整已在市场预期之内。此前央行行长潘功胜在5月7日国新办新闻发布会上宣布降准 降息，同时提到央行将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 20日出炉的新一期LPR（贷款市场报价利率）显示，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为3.6%；1年期 LPR为3%，上月为3.1%，均下行10BP，与此前逆回购利率调整幅度一致。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，截至2025年一季度，一般贷款加权平均利率下行至3.75%的历史 低位，商业银行净息差也回落至1.43%的低点。"本轮LPR降息落地后贷款利率料将进一步下行；本 轮存款降息和LPR调降同步落地，是在利率自律机制影响下，商业银行主动稳定息差的举措。"明明 说。 从调整范围和幅度来看，此次大行活期存款利率降幅与去年10月调整时降幅一致，3年期以下定期存 款利率降幅较上次收窄10个基点，3年期及5年期品种利率降幅与上次一致，均为25BP。有行业人 士对第一财经表示，定期存款仍是压降负债成本的重要方向。以3 ...

国有六大行均官宣下调存款利率，最大降幅25个基点 5月20日，工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、农业银行、邮储银行、交通银行下调人民币存款利率，一年期定期存款利率下破1%。 工商银行下调人民币存款利率，其中活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%；定期整存整取三个月期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、 0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年期均下调25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均下调15个基点。7天期通 知存款利率下调15个基点至0.3%。 | 项目 | 年利率% | | --- | --- | | 、城乡居民及单位存款 | | | (一)活期 | 0. 05 | | (二)定期 | | | 1. 整存整取 | | | 三个月 | 0. 65 | | 半年 | 0. 85 | | 一年 | 0. 95 | | 二年 | 1.05 | | 三年 | 1. 25 | | 五年 | 1. 3 | | 2. 零存整取、整存零取、存本取息 | | | 一年 | 0. 65 | | 三年 | 0. 85 | | 五年 | 0. 85 | | 3. ...

2025年5月20日，中国金融市场迎来重要变动，建设银行与招商银行率先启动今年首次人民币存款利率 下调。根据最新公布的利率表，这两家银行的活期存款下调0.05个百分点至0.05%，而各期限定期存款 挂牌利率则下调0.15-0.25个百分点不等。其中，三年期和五年期定期存款利率调整幅度最大，均下调了 0.25个百分点，分别降至1.25%和1.30%。此次调整是继去年两轮存款利率下调后的又一次重要调整，市 场普遍预期国有六大行和招商银行将按照惯例在同一天内进行一致的利率调整。 回顾去年的两轮存款利率调整可以发现一定的规律和趋势。2024年7月25日，工商银行、建设银行、农 业银行、中国银行、交通银行和邮储银行率先下调人民币存款利率，其中活期存款下调0.05个百分点， 通知、协定和一年期及以内定期存款利率下调了0.1个百分点，二年期及以上定期存款利率下调了0.2个 百分点。 随后在2024年10月18日，国有大行再度集体下调人民币存款利率。当时活期存款下调0.05个百 分点至0.1%，各期限定期存款挂牌利率全线下调0.25个百分点。 对比此次与去年两轮的存款利率调整 可以看出，此次调整基本延续了去年10月的调整模式 ...