Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in China, as outlined by the Central Economic Work Conference, aiming for a deficit rate of 4% in 2023, the highest in recent years, to support economic growth and stability [1][15]. Policy Goals - The fiscal policy aims to integrate economic and social development goals, increase counter-cyclical adjustments, raise the deficit rate, and optimize expenditure structure while maintaining necessary spending intensity [15][16]. - The deficit scale is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [15]. Tools Arrangement - The government plans to utilize various fiscal tools, including government bonds, fiscal subsidies, special funds, and tax incentives, to enhance policy coordination across fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, and regional policies [16]. - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government bonds will be issued, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year, to support investment and financial stability [16]. Focus Areas - The fiscal policy will target weak links in high-quality development and economic circulation, with increased support for education, science and technology, social security, and health care, all seeing budget increases of over 5% [2][16]. - Central government transfers to local governments will be increased to 10.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, enhancing local financial support [2][16]. Implementation Rhythm - The government emphasizes a proactive approach to policy implementation, ensuring timely execution of confirmed policies and preparing for new policies to align with market expectations [2][16]. Economic Context - The article highlights the challenges posed by external factors, such as the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs," which necessitate a robust fiscal response to mitigate adverse impacts on China's economy [3][18]. - The fiscal policy is seen as a critical tool to counteract these external risks and support sustainable economic growth [3][18]. Achievements and Future Directions - The implementation of fiscal policies has already shown positive effects, with GDP growth of 5% in the previous year and a strong start to the current year [9][18]. - The government aims to further enhance fiscal policy effectiveness through reforms and improved management practices, focusing on high-quality development and addressing key economic challenges [17][20].

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Growth - As of the end of February, the broad money supply (M2) reached 320.52 trillion yuan, growing by 7% year-on-year [6] - The balance of RMB loans stood at 261.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [3] - The total social financing stock was 417.29 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [4] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - In the first two months of the year, RMB loans increased by 6.14 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 5.82 trillion yuan of this total [2] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 33.43 trillion yuan, growing by 12.4% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 10.3% [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year [3] Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first two months was 9.29 trillion yuan, which is 1.32 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] - In February, the issuance of local government bonds accelerated, with nearly 800 billion yuan issued for debt replacement, exceeding one-third of last year's total [4] - The net financing of corporate bonds has also seen rapid growth, supported by low bond market interest rates [4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Experts suggest that the financial system will continue to support the real economy's recovery and high-quality development due to stable credit growth and effective macro policies [1][2] - The central bank has indicated that it will maintain a proactive monetary policy to address uncertainties in the external environment while ensuring stable economic growth [7] - There is potential for further monetary policy adjustments to enhance support for key sectors and promote economic transformation [7]

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a five-year average growth rate of 4.9%[11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[11] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.1%, with 12.56 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 12 million[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.2%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% and infrastructure investment rising by 4.4%[24] - Real estate investment declined by 10.6%, marking a significant drop compared to previous years[24] Trade and Exports - China's total goods trade reached $6.16 trillion, with exports of $3.58 trillion (up 5.9%) and imports of $2.59 trillion (up 1.1%)[24] - The trade surplus was $992.2 billion, an increase of $168.9 billion from the previous year[24] Economic Forecast for 2025 - GDP growth is projected to be around 4.9%, with quarterly growth rates estimated at 5.0%, 5.2%, 4.9%, and 4.5%[43] - CPI is expected to show a gradual increase after a dip in February, while PPI may decline by approximately 2%[46] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on macroeconomic regulation to stabilize overall demand and support structural reforms[47] - Implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance economic recovery momentum[47]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall economic operation in China is stable and improving, particularly after the timely deployment of a package of incremental policies that boosted social confidence and led to a significant rebound in major economic indicators [4] - For 2025, China's GDP growth is expected to be around 4.9%, with inflation rates for CPI and PPI projected to remain stable [40][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in light of increasing external uncertainties, particularly due to rising international trade protectionism [4][23] Summary by Sections 1. Review of China's Economic Operation in 2024 - In 2024, China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates showing fluctuations [8] - The CPI increased by 0.2%, while the PPI decreased by 2.2%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices [9][10] - The service sector's growth slowed significantly, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [11][34] 2. External Environment and Issues for 2025 - The report highlights the potential impact of rising tariffs and trade protectionism on China's exports, particularly from the U.S. [23][24] - It notes that the trade surplus with the U.S. was significant, and any changes in trade policy could affect China's economic growth [24] - The report anticipates that net exports will contribute less to economic growth in 2025 compared to previous years [21][39] 3. Basic Trends and Policy Discussion for 2025 - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to rebound slightly, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investments, while real estate investment is projected to decline at a slower rate [38] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies will be more proactive, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive and monetary policies remaining moderately loose [42] - The anticipated GDP growth of 4.9% for 2025 is based on a combination of investment, net export changes, and a gradual increase in consumption [40][41]

国务院新闻办公室于3月5日上午11时30分举行吹风会，《政府工作报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹 阳，《政府工作报告》起草组成员、国务院研究室副主任陈昌盛解读《政府工作报告》，并答记者问。 陈昌盛：宏观调控中重视资产价格，把稳住楼市股市写进总体要求 ，这是第一次 陈昌盛表示，今年的政府工作报告充分体现2024年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，党中央对宏观调控思路的创 新。比如，报告明确提出强化宏观政策民生导向。 陈昌盛指出，报告还有一些新的提法， 比如，打破了"消费是慢变量"的常规，把提振消费放在更加突出的位置，而 且强调促消费和扩投资之间要形成互动。 再比如， 宏观调控中重视资产价格，把稳住楼市股市写进总体要求，这是第一次。 强调将政策资源更多投资于人、 服务于民生，这些都是宏观政策的创新，旨在通过形成经济发展与民生改善的良性循环，在稳增长、稳就业中更好 地促进高质量发展。 陈昌盛：要通过更大力度稳住楼市、股市等来推动CPI目标实现 陈昌盛表示， 价格是经济运行的"体温"。近两年，我国物价水平总体偏低，这对消费者来说是好事，但从国民经 济大循环来看并不好。促进物价温和回升被看作经济运行健康的表现。今年 ...