Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].

Employment and Social Security - The employment situation in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is generally stable, with a cumulative urban new employment of 59.21 million by the end of August this year, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years is 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established, including fiscal incentives, tax reductions, and financial support, to enhance employment priority policies [1] Social Insurance Reform - The number of participants in the national basic pension insurance reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with a cumulative balance of 9.81 trillion yuan, indicating a stable increase in fund support capacity [2] - The investment operation scale of the basic pension insurance fund is 2.6 trillion yuan, having doubled since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15% [2] Talent Development - The gradual implementation of a delayed retirement age policy is underway to transform demographic dividends into talent dividends during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Over the past five years, 92 million people have received subsidized vocational skills training, with 72 new occupations and 328 national occupational standards introduced [3] - The number of professional technical talents exceeds 80 million, and skilled workers total over 220 million, with over 72 million high-skilled talents [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised questions about the apparent contradictions in his remarks regarding interest rates, stock market valuations, and inflation control [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Valuation - Powell indicated that stock market valuations are "quite high," with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio nearing 20 times, which is 20% above historical averages [5]. - The concern is that a sudden drop in the stock market could lead to a decrease in consumer wealth, thereby suppressing consumption and negatively impacting the economy [5][10]. - Powell's warning about high valuations is more about risk prevention rather than direct market intervention, as financial stability is also a responsibility of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell described the impact of tariffs on inflation as a "one-time fluctuation," but acknowledged that this effect could take 3-6 months to fully transmit through the supply chain [5][6]. - The emphasis on "temporary" inflation is intended to prevent market panic and to provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy decisions [7]. - Powell's dual focus on stabilizing prices and promoting employment reflects the complex economic environment, where raising interest rates to control inflation could harm job growth [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with GDP growth at only 1.5% in the first half of the year, leading to cautious hiring by companies [10][13]. - Powell's recent interest rate cut is seen as a preventive measure against economic "stalling," while also aiming to cool down the overheated stock market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is acknowledged, but political pressures do exist, influencing the context in which Powell operates [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has implemented its first interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, revealing internal divisions among its officials regarding future monetary policy direction [1][14]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - There is a split among Federal Reserve officials, with 7 opposing further rate cuts and 10 supporting a more aggressive approach, indicating uncertainty in future policy decisions [1][7]. - Officials like Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Milan advocate for faster and larger rate cuts, while others express concerns about the potential risks of such actions [1][10]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - The core inflation indicator remains above the 2% target, raising fears that aggressive rate cuts could lead to renewed spending and inflation, undermining previous efforts to stabilize prices [5][16]. - There are signals of a weakening job market, with only 20,000 new jobs added in August, raising concerns about the balance between combating inflation and supporting employment [7][16]. Group 3: Political Influences - Milan's extreme position for a 50 basis point cut is viewed as politically motivated, reflecting external pressures from former President Trump, who has historically called for more aggressive rate cuts [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, with officials cautioning against political interference in monetary policy decisions, which could lead to misjudgments and increased risks [10][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current policy divergence reflects the complex economic landscape, with persistent inflation pressures and a softening job market, necessitating a careful approach to future monetary policy [16]. - As more economic data becomes available, the Federal Reserve aims to find a balanced path that supports stable economic growth while managing inflation risks [16].

Core Points - The article highlights the achievement of over 59.21 million new urban jobs created since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, exceeding the target of 55 million jobs [1][2] - The government has implemented various measures to stabilize employment, including financial support and skill training programs, contributing to the creation of high-quality job opportunities [2][3] Employment Achievements - Cumulative new urban employment reached 59.21 million by the end of August 2025, surpassing the target of 55 million [1][2] - Over 4.7 trillion yuan has been spent on employment subsidies, with 1.389 trillion yuan allocated for job retention funds [2] - The average annual balance of entrepreneurial guarantee loans is 300 billion yuan, with annual employment subsidy expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] Skill Training Initiatives - More than 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers have received subsidized vocational skills training during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training program aims to train 30 million people over three years, with 2.14 million enterprise employees participating in subsidized training in the first half of 2025 [3] Social Security Fund Performance - The basic pension insurance fund has maintained a positive balance, with total reserves reaching 9.81 trillion yuan by the end of August [7] - The average annual investment return rate for the basic pension insurance fund is 5.15%, with continuous positive returns for eight consecutive years [7] - The number of participants in basic pension insurance has increased to 1.072 billion, with a participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [6][7]

Employment Situation - The employment situation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is generally stable, with a total of 59.21 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 55 million [2][3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has implemented various measures to support employment, including actions for advanced manufacturing, small and medium enterprises, and the elderly economy [2] Skills Training - Over 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers have received subsidized vocational skills training during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training program is planned to train 30 million people over three years, with specific actions for different groups [3] Social Security Funds - The three main social insurance funds (basic pension, unemployment, and work injury) have maintained a surplus, with a cumulative balance of 9.81 trillion yuan as of the end of August [7] - The basic pension insurance fund has achieved positive returns for eight consecutive years since its investment operation began in 2016, with an average annual return rate of 5.15% [7] Insurance Coverage - The number of people covered by basic pension insurance has reached 1.072 billion, with a participation rate exceeding 95% [6] - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance for new employment forms has expanded to 17 provinces, covering over 20 million new employment form workers [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in employment and social security during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China, with a focus on achieving high-quality development [1][2] - As of the end of August, urban new employment reached 59.21 million, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years was 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by the most substantial reforms in the social security sector, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and provincial-level coordination of unemployment and work injury insurance [2] - The number of participants in the basic pension insurance reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds' income and expenditure reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with cumulative fund reserves of 9.81 trillion yuan, indicating a stable support capacity for social security [2]

9月26日，国务院新闻办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。"十四五"以来，截至今年 8月底，我国城镇新增就业累计达5921万人。 超额完成城镇新增就业目标 人力资源社会保障部部长王晓萍介绍，"十四五"时期就业局势总体稳定，超额完成城镇新增就业5500万 人的目标任务。累计支出就业补助资金超过4700亿元，发放稳岗返还资金1389亿元，年均创业担保贷款 余额3000亿元，年均支出就业补助资金超1000亿元。 "先后实施先进制造业促就业行动、专精特新中小企业就业扬帆计划、助力民营经济发展壮大、支持银 发经济发展等一系列举措，助力新业态新模式不断涌现，创造了更多高质量就业岗位。"王晓萍说。 "十四五"时期高校毕业生逐年增加，2022年起每年超千万人。人力资源社会保障部会同有关部门，拓宽 就业渠道，稳定青年就业局势。对以务工为主要收入的近3亿名农民工，深化东西部劳务协作，加大劳 务品牌培育，农民工就业增收之路越走越宽，脱贫人口务工规模保持在3000万人以上。 健全就业公共服务体系，构建"省市县乡村"五级服务网络，建成近9000家零工市场，推动服务资源向基 层延伸、向农村覆盖。建立全国统一的就业信息资 ...

Gold - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that failing to quickly lower interest rates could harm the economy, advocating for significant rate cuts to return to neutral levels, proposing a 50 basis point cut followed by 125 basis points in the next two meetings [1] - UBS Global Wealth Management predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut rates in the coming months, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points by Q1 2026 [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that the expectation of rate cuts, following Powell's hint on August 22, has led to a rise in gold prices due to weakening economic data [1] - Technically, gold shows a bullish trend on weekly and monthly charts, with a potential upward movement if it breaks above $3,760, targeting $3,790 and possibly $3,850 next week [1] Oil - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized final value recorded at 3.8%, exceeding expectations and previous values, indicating strong economic resilience [2] - Eight oil companies have reached agreements with the Kurdish regional government in Iraq, leading to concerns about oversupply as Kurdish oil supply is set to resume [2] - The summer demand peak has passed, and OPEC+ continues to increase production, outpacing global oil demand growth, which is unfavorable for oil prices [2] - Technically, oil rebounded from around $62, reaching a high of $65.38, but faces resistance in the $65-$66 range; if it cannot break through, it may continue to fluctuate between $61.50 and $65 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. durable goods orders for August increased by 2.9%, significantly better than the previous decline of 2.7% and the expected drop of 0.5% [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were recorded at 218,000, down from 232,000, also better than expected [3] - Kansas City Fed President George indicates that recent data shows rising risks in the U.S. labor market, suggesting that rate cuts may be appropriate [3] - Technically, the dollar index continues to rise, breaking through the 98 resistance level, with a potential to breach 98.80 if the upward trend continues [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend on the daily chart, with a high probability of further increases [4] - The hourly chart indicates a high-level consolidation, with an upward shift in low points, suggesting an impending directional decision [4] - A drop below 45,230 could lead to a deeper correction towards 44,530, while a breakout above 45,890 could extend the upward trend [4] Copper - Copper prices failed to maintain upward momentum, peaking at $4.86 before falling below the critical support level of $4.74, indicating potential further declines [5] - The focus for the day is on the resistance at $4.74 and support at $4.62 [5] Market Overview - Federal Reserve officials emphasize the importance of focusing on employment rather than inflation, with various members expressing differing views on the appropriateness of rate cuts [6] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced a ban on diesel exports, which will last until the end of the year, and extended the gasoline export ban [6] Upcoming Data/Events - The U.S. will release August PCE data and personal spending month-on-month at 20:30 [7] - Federal Reserve's Barkin will speak at 21:00 [8] - The final value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and one-year inflation expectations will be released at 22:00 [7][8]

Core Points - The employment situation in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has been generally stable, with a cumulative urban new employment of 59.21 million, exceeding the target of 55 million [1][2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has spent over 470 billion RMB on employment subsidies and issued 138.9 billion RMB in stability return funds [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years was 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] Employment Services - The Ministry has strengthened comprehensive employment services and improved human resource matching efficiency, establishing a five-level service network covering provinces, cities, counties, and rural areas [2] - Nearly 9,000 gig markets have been established to extend service resources to grassroots and rural areas [2] - A total of 72 new occupations have been published during the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering industries such as digital economy, modern services, and intelligent manufacturing [2]