Group 1 - The core PCE price index in the United States increased by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing the expected growth of 2.6% [1]

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 02:30 [1] - Key Point 2: Japan's unemployment rate for May will be released at 07:30 [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI for June will be announced at 14:45 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's industrial confidence index for June will be published at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone's economic confidence index for June will also be released at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 3: Federal Reserve's Williams will host a meeting at 19:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Canada's GDP monthly rate for April will be reported at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for May will be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: U.S. personal spending monthly rate for May will be announced at 20:30 [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: U.S. core PCE price index monthly rate for May will be published at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: Federal Reserve's Harker and Governor Cook will attend an event at 21:15 [1] - Key Point 3: U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value for June will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: U.S. one-year inflation expectations final value for June will be announced at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending June 27 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年率终值 2.9%，前值2.8%。 ...

美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值3.5%，预期3.4%，前值3.40%。 ...

Group 1 - As of June 25, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 953.39 tons, a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On June 25, spot gold slightly rebounded, fluctuating around $3,330, with a daily low of $3,312.03 and closing at $3,332.02, an increase of $9.09 or 0.27% [2] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to improved risk sentiment, which has suppressed gold prices; however, renewed tensions could drive prices higher [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many paths are possible regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as expected [3] - Economic data in the coming months will be crucial for the gold market; weak inflation or a deteriorating labor market could lead to earlier or larger rate cuts than anticipated [3] - Current expectations from federal funds futures traders indicate a cumulative rate cut of 60 basis points by 2025, with the first cut likely in September [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above the critical 50-day moving average support level around $3,325, with the 14-day RSI struggling near the midpoint [3] - Short-term support levels for gold are at $3,300 and the June 24 low of $3,295; a break below these levels could trigger further declines, with the next support at the May 29 low of $3,245 [3] - For bullish sentiment, reclaiming the 21-day moving average at $3,350 is crucial for a sustained recovery, with the next resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci level around $3,380 [4]

Core Economic Data - The U.S. Commerce Department will release the May Core PCE Price Index year-on-year at 20:30 on Friday, with a previous value of 2.5% and an expected value of 2.6%, indicating a small expected decline [1] - The Core PCE year-on-year data is a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, and a significant drop in PCE data could lead to a resumption of interest rate cuts [1] - The May Core CPI year-on-year has been published at 2.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value, indicating stability over three consecutive months [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, focusing on future interest rate changes, inflation trends, and the labor market [4] - If Powell's statements align with previous remarks, the impact on the dollar index may be minimal; however, unexpected comments could lead to significant volatility [4] - Powell's previous comments indicated that the Fed is patient regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting that such actions are not imminent [4] Oil Market Influence - The fluctuations in crude oil prices are expected to correlate with changes in PCE data; in May, U.S. crude oil prices increased by 4.43%, with a price range between $55 and $64, indicating limited volatility [1] ECB and Eurozone Outlook - ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak in Munich on Friday, likely not addressing interest rate paths or inflation due to the event's limited economic relevance [5] - Lagarde's previous remarks indicated a favorable position for the euro, and her upcoming speeches are expected to maintain an optimistic tone, potentially benefiting the euro [5]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation against China until August 31, originally set to expire on May 31. China has repeatedly lodged solemn representations with the U.S. over Section 301 tariffs, which violate WTO rules, disrupt international trade, and burden U.S. businesses and consumers [2] - Goldman Sachs' commodities research team said the U.S. is investigating copper imports under Section 232 and has doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50%, increasing the likelihood of copper import tariffs. Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 aluminum price forecast by $140/ton to $2280/ton, expecting it to drop to $2100/ton in early 2026 and reach $2230/ton and $2500/ton in 2026 and 2027 respectively, lower than previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised 2.7%, the smallest increase in over four years. The "super core inflation indicator" also hit a four-year low. Traders still bet on a Fed rate cut in September [3] - China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 ppts month-on-month; non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 ppt; composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 ppts. New export and import order indices rose 2.8 and 3.7 ppts respectively. Some U.S.-related enterprises reported improved foreign trade [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third consecutive monthly increase. The eight OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide August production policy [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, lithium carbonate, asphalt, soybean oil, hot-rolled coils [4] - Sector percentage changes: non-metallic building materials 2.71%, precious metals 30.65%, oilseeds and fats 11.88%, soft commodities 2.44%, non-ferrous metals 19.05%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.59%, energy 2.60%, chemicals 12.83%, grains 1.58%, agricultural and sideline products 2.67% [4] 3. Sector Positions - Information about the recent five-day changes in commodity futures sector positions is presented, but specific numerical changes are not clearly stated [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.47% daily, with a monthly change of 0.00% and an annual change of -0.13%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also had different performances [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual changes [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., showed various changes [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility index also had corresponding changes [7]

金老虎：美联储放鹰屠金，多空底牌被扒，关税政策成"黑天鹅" 梅花香自苦寒来，梅花香自他是梅花，而不是苦寒，有人说觉得累，就去看下凌晨4点的菜市场和急诊 室，觉得累就应该去休息，而不是看谁比自己更累，毕竟恶难皆长相，非是登云梯，为什么道家从不主 张吃苦，因为苦难就是苦难，他不会带来成功，也并不值得追求，如果吃苦就会成功，那么驴是世界首 富； 本周黄金回顾及下周预测分析 本周金价整体走了连续下跌后的上升修复形态，金价从3356弱势下跌到3245整体波动了111美金，然后 金价从3245反弹到了3330的位置整体波动了85美金；本周整体大的波动波动率在196美金；本周金价走 出这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 一、宏观经济数据与美元走势的博弈 1：消费者信心超预期反弹：5 月美国消费者信心指数大幅回升至 98，创近四年最大单月涨幅，反映出 市场对经济前景的乐观情绪。这一数据直接提振了美元指数，导致以美元计价的黄金承压下跌。 2：通胀数据的双向影响：4 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.5%，虽低于前值但仍高于美联储 2% 的 目标。数据公布后，市场对美联储降息预期出现分歧：一方面，通胀放缓为降息提供了空间； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]