Group 1 - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is 61.7, which is below the expected value of 62 and slightly lower than the previous value of 61.8 [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's unemployment rate for June will be released at 07:30 [1] - Key Point 2: China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 09:45 [1] - Key Point 3: The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The UK Nationwide House Price Index for July will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: France's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be available at 15:50 [1] - Key Point 3: Germany's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be released at 15:55 [1] - Key Point 4: Eurozone's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 16:00 [1] - Key Point 5: The UK's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be published at 16:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year preliminary value will be released at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone's July CPI month-on-month preliminary value will be available at 17:00 [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: The US unemployment rate for July will be announced at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July will be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The US average hourly earnings year-on-year for July will be published at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 4: The US average hourly earnings month-on-month for July will be available at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 5: The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 21:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The US one-year inflation expectations final value for July will be published at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The US June construction spending month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending August 1 will be announced at 01:00 the next day [1]

今晚20:30公布的美国第二季度GDP数据，或许会在账面上显示强劲反弹，但这份数据很可能具有相当大的误导性。 由贸易逆差收窄驱动的增长，掩盖了消费支出温和及商业投资停滞等核心领域的疲软迹象，这让一份看似强劲的报告，实则预示着美国 经济的潜在动能正在放缓。 媒体对经济学家的调查显示，市场普遍预期美国第二季度GDP将实现2.4%的年化增长，彻底扭转第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。瑞银在最新 发布的财报中，将美国第二季度GDP增长预测大幅上调至2.6%， 尽管GDP读数或许乐观，经济学家们却普遍警告，应将焦点放在"对国内私人购买者的最终销售额"这一关键指标上。该指标被视为衡量 美国本土真实经济健康状况的"晴雨表"，而其增速预计将从第一季度1.9%的水平放缓。 他表示，特朗普政府不可预测的关税战略所产生的连锁反应已广泛波及经济，其"主要影响是在企业界制造了谨慎情绪"。 贸易数据扭曲，美国二季度GDP或现反弹 贸易和库存这两个最具波动性的GDP组成部分，正连续第二个季度主导着经济数据的走向。 瑞银现预测第二季度实际GDP年化增长率为2.6%，远高于第一季度-0.5%的萎缩。然而，这一增长几乎完全由净出口的巨大贡献所驱动， ...

欧元区7月消费者信心指数终值 -14.7，初值 -14.7。 ...

欧元区7月消费者信心指数终值 -14.7，预期-14.7，前值-14.7。 ...

Core Insights - The US consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, but the increase was below market expectations [1] - The current conditions index, reflecting consumer assessments of the business and labor market, decreased to 131.5, down 1.5 from June [1] - The expectations index, which gauges short-term outlooks on income, business, and labor market conditions, increased to 74.4, up 4.5 from June [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Trends - The consumer confidence index has stabilized since May but remains lower than the same period last year [2] - The increase in consumer confidence was primarily driven by individuals aged 35 and above, with all income groups above $15,000 seeing an increase, except for those earning below $15,000 [1] - 18.9% of consumers reported difficulty in finding jobs, marking the lowest assessment of the job market since March 2021 [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Tariffs are a major concern for consumers, with many fearing that they will lead to rising prices and inflation [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating signs of rising inflation [2]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on July 29, with an opening price of $3,314.71 per ounce, a high of $3,334.13, a low of $3,307.99, and a closing price of $3,320.60 [1]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. JOLTs job openings for June recorded 7.437 million, below the market expectation of 7.5 million and down from the previous value of 7.769 million. This indicates a decline in job openings after two months of increases, suggesting a stable overall labor demand [2][4]. - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July was reported at 97.2, exceeding the market expectation of 95 and up from the previous value of 93. This reflects a slight improvement in consumer sentiment, although it remains below last year's levels [2][4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials are reportedly divided on the need for future interest rate cuts, with some waiting for clearer evidence before making a decision. The focus will be on whether Chairman Powell will hint at a potential rate cut in September during the upcoming press conference [4][6]. Trade Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that President Trump will unveil pharmaceutical industry policies within two weeks. Additionally, Trump indicated that India may face tariffs of 20%-25%, although an agreement has not yet been finalized [5][6]. Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a rebound after a period of decline, with short-term support levels being established. The market is currently in a cautious trading phase, with specific trading ranges suggested for both long and short positions [8].

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose from a revised 95.2 in June to 97.2 in July, indicating a gradual stabilization since April's decline [1] - The "present situation index" decreased by 1.5 points to 131.5, reflecting increased concerns about the current job market, while the "expectations index" increased by 4.5 points to 74.4, although it remains below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession [1] - Only 14.3% of consumers rated the current business conditions as "bad," a slight decrease from 15% in June, while those rating it as "good" fell from 20.5% to 20.1% [1] Group 2 - Consumer confidence improvements were primarily driven by individuals aged 35 and older, with all income levels showing positive trends except for households earning less than $15,000 [2] - Concerns about tariffs remain high among consumers, with inflation expectations slightly decreasing to 5.8% in July from 5.9% in June, despite increased mentions of "high prices" and "inflation" [2] - Confidence in the stock market has improved, with 47.9% of respondents expecting stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, up from 37.6% three months prior [2] Group 3 - Consumers expect interest rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards to rise, with the expectation for credit card rates being the most pronounced [3] - The assessment of household financial conditions remains stable but shows signs of fatigue, with a decrease in the proportion of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months, although it remains above 2024 levels [3] - There has been a decline in the willingness to purchase cars and homes, while service consumption intentions have decreased for the second consecutive month, particularly in dining out and travel-related expenses [3]

金十数据7月29日讯，美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数从6月份的95.2升至7月份的97.2。现况指数下降1.5 点至131.5点。预期指数升4.5点至74.4。但预期仍低于80的门槛，标志着连续第六个月出现衰退。该机 构全球指标高级经济学家吉查德表示："自5月份以来，消费者信心已经稳定下来，从4月份的暴跌中反 弹，但仍低于去年令人兴奋的水平。"7月份，对未来的悲观情绪有所消退，导致整体信心略有改善。预 期指数的三个组成部分都有所改善，消费者对未来商业状况和就业的悲观情绪有所缓解，对未来收入的 乐观情绪有所上升。与此同时，消费者对现状的评估变化不大。然而，他们对当前就业机会的评估连续 第七个月下降，达到2021年3月以来的最低水平。 美国7月消费者信心指数小幅上升 ...

智通财经7月29日电，美国7月消费者信心指数为97.2，预期值为96.0。 ...