煤价淡季或逐步趋稳，关注迎峰度夏补库情况 | 证券研究报告 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 况 | | 行业研究-周报 | | | | [Table_ReportType] | | | | 行业周报 | | 本期内容提要: | | | | [Table_Summary] | | 煤炭开采 | | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | | 上次评级 | 看好 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] | | | 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | 日 | | 月 | 29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | | 5.89 | | 一 年 高 最 低 | 最 | / | | | | 7.42/4.86 | | 内 | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 60,240.34 | | | | | | | ...

华福证券 火力发电 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资要点： 24 年电力热力毛利同比增幅 50%，1Q2025 电价承压影响业绩释放：2024 年，公司上网电量上升约 6.60%；电价下降约 7.06%，公司电力及热力销售收 入同比增加 2.25%。受益于 24 年煤炭价格的下降，2024 年电力及热力销售毛 利同比增幅 49.66%。1Q2025，全国电力供需总体平衡，火电发电同比下降 2.3%； 浙江火电出力相对占优，公司上网电量同比基本持平。但是一季度公司电价承 压，削弱煤价下跌的成本红利，影响业绩释放。此外，1Q2025 公司投资净收 益同比下降 26.74%，或系电价承压，影响公司参股火电机组的业绩释放。 华福证券 24 年中来归母净利润同比下滑 260%，拖累公司并表利润：2024 年，公 司并表公司中来股份营业收入 60.96 亿元，同比下降 50.28%；归母净利润-8.56 亿元，同比下降 262.64%。因中来股份 2022-2024 年合并报表口径累计实现归 母净利润（0.72 亿元）未完成业绩承诺要求（16 亿元），中来股份原实际控制 人已触发补偿条件，将支付补偿金 1.48 亿 ...

事件：2025 年3 月27 日，公司发布2024 年年度报告。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94 亿元， 同比下降3.57%；营业成本1030.71 亿元，同比下降6.00%；实现归母净利润57.03 亿元，同比上涨 26.11%；实现基本每股收益为人民币 0.46 元/股，同比去年提高0.11 元/股。 利用小时数下降带动营收下降。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收入1129.94亿元，同比下降3.57%。公司 完成发电量2226.26 亿千瓦时，同比下降约0.52%；其中煤机1934.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-1.07%），燃机 208.78 亿千瓦时（yoy+10.53%），水电82.7 亿千瓦时（yoy-11.37%）。利用小时数方面，公司煤电、 气电、水电分别为4084、2052、3363 小时，分别同比去年下降215、35、431 小时。公司发电量下降主 要由利用小时数下降引起，利用小时数下降主要原因系公司火电机组利用小时受新能源机组挤压。燃气 发电板块的发电量增长原因系报告期内公司新投产装机150.88 万千瓦全部为燃气机组。 煤价、电价剪刀差扩大带动公司利润增长。2024 年，公司平 ...

智通财经4月29日讯，市场昨日震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌。沪深两市全天成交额1.06万亿，较上个 交易日缩量572亿。板块方面，PEEK材料、游戏、银行、钢铁等板块涨幅居前，海南、房地产、旅游、 食品等板块跌幅居前。截至昨日收盘，沪指跌0.2%，深成指跌0.62%，创业板指跌0.65%。 在今天的券商晨会上，国泰海通证券提出，优先配置综合优势显著，以及跨境资产配置能力更强的头部 券商；广发证券认为，2025年煤价中枢或有下行，龙头公司预计盈利保持整体稳健；华泰证券表示，看 好2025年商业地产板块的投资机会。 国泰海通证券：优先配置综合优势显著，以及跨境资产配置能力更强的头部券商 国泰海通证券表示，固收自营作为券商行业的支柱业务，在新时期亟待转型。单一业务的变化，应看作 行业供给侧改革的一个侧面，转型期、探索期，建议不确定性找确定性，优先配置综合优势显著，以及 跨境资产配置能力更强的头部券商。 广发证券：2025年煤价中枢或有下行 龙头公司预计盈利保持整体稳健 广发证券表示，4月煤炭行业需求仍处于淡季，煤价总体较为弱势，但后期稳增长逆周期调节政策力度 加大预期开始增强，且随着工业需求回升，产量增长放缓及进口煤 ...

Summary of Jin Control Coal Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin Control Coal Industry - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Investment Income**: Decreased from 648 million to 357 million yuan, primarily due to the liquidation of a financial company and adjustments in resource tax rates in Shanxi Province, which reduced profits by approximately 200 million yuan [2][4] - **2025 Q1 Net Profit**: 511.2 million yuan, down over 30% year-on-year from 780 million yuan, mainly impacted by significant declines in coal prices and reduced production and sales volumes [2][4] - **Sales Volume**: Q1 sales volume decreased by over 30%, with production down by 600,000 tons and sales down by 1.7 million tons year-on-year [2][4] Market Conditions - **Coal Price Trends**: Coal prices have been declining since the end of last year, dropping over 100 yuan to around 665 yuan per ton. The company anticipates a potential recovery in prices in May and June due to seasonal demand and a rebound in the construction industry [2][5][6] - **Long-term Contracts**: The company maintains stable pricing through long-term contracts, with prices at 570 yuan per ton for pit coal and 770 yuan per ton for port coal, which has helped mitigate market volatility [2][7] Operational Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of early March, inventory at Tashan Port reached over 2 million tons, remaining stable at that level until the end of Q1 [2][9] - **Production Strategy**: The company has not reduced production despite high inventory levels, indicating a stable operational strategy [2][14] Future Outlook - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a 45% dividend payout ratio for 2025, despite the downturn in the coal market [3][18] - **Asset Injection Project**: The company is focused on the Panjiakou asset injection project, which is currently in the evaluation and auditing phase [3][17] - **Cost Management**: The company has been actively working on cost control, but further significant reductions may be limited [15] Regulatory Environment - **Safety and Production Regulations**: The regulatory environment in Shanxi has become stricter in 2025, but production efficiency has improved, leading to increased output [20][21] - **Market Dynamics**: There are no current policies mandating increased production to stabilize coal prices, and industry associations have suggested reducing output to prevent further price declines [22] Additional Considerations - **Impact of High-Cost Mines**: Some older state-owned coal mines are experiencing losses due to high extraction costs, while Jin Control Coal Industry, with modernized operations, is not facing similar issues [19] - **Import Policies**: The likelihood of implementing restrictions on low-quality coal imports has decreased as the price advantage of imported coal has diminished [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding limited coal demand during the peak season due to negative growth in electricity generation and recent tariff disruptions, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not reverse the stabilization of coal prices during the peak season [2][7] - Despite the seasonal demand typically increasing in the second and third quarters, the report indicates that the actual demand may be limited, and the market remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization trend is likely to continue, supported by steady supply and rising demand for coal, particularly in the context of domestic needs and risk aversion in the market [2][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [19] - As of April 25, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 655 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][47] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report notes that the coal supply in the twenty-five provinces was 5.076 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week, while the coal consumption was 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% [40] - The report emphasizes that despite the current low demand season, the upcoming summer peak season is expected to see a seasonal increase in coal demand, although the extent may be limited due to tariff impacts [7][8] Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize or even experience a mild rebound due to steady supply and the necessity for coal consumption, despite potential downward pressure from current demand levels [8][9] - The report also discusses the potential impact of tariffs on coal prices, indicating that while there may be some constraining effects, the overall trend towards price stabilization remains intact [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector for the next 1-2 quarters, particularly highlighting companies such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [9]

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|动力煤周报 2025-04-27 日耗持续下行，动煤承压偏弱 产地方面，目前冶金化工需求有一定韧性，长协煤发运采购需求稳定，但近期终端有 电厂检修，部分煤矿库存积压，价格弱势下调。短期煤炭价格需求支撑不足，随着天 气逐渐转暖，价格明显缺乏支撑。后期关注非电煤需求的持续性和库存情况。 核心观点 ◼ 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至 4 月 25 日，榆林 5800 大卡指数 521.0 元/吨，周环 比下跌 12.0 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 5500 大卡指数 465.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 9.0 元/吨；大同 5500 大卡指数 532.0 元/吨；周环比下跌 6.0 元/吨。港 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]

2025 年 04 月 26 日 江苏国信（002608.SZ） 增持（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 煤价下行驱动利润高增，25 年装机放量可期 用电需求增长+利用小时提升，24 年火电发电量持续增长，25 年后 续装机放量可期。江苏省 24 年用电量同比+8.3%、高于全国平均 1.5pct，此外公司国信滨电百万千瓦煤电 3 号机组于 24 年底投产放 量，叠加山西煤电、江苏气电利用小时数提升带动公司 24 年利用小 时数同比+0.9%，公司 24 年总发电量 722.01 亿千瓦时、同比+2.2%。 江苏电力供需偏紧格局为电价提供有力支撑，公司 24 年平均上网电 价 0.469 元/千瓦时、同比小幅-0.9%。此外，国信滨电第二台 100 万千瓦超超临界燃煤发电机组于 25 年 4 月投产，且国信沙洲、国信 马洲百万千瓦煤电机组有序建设中，预计集中于 25 年投产、有望带 来 25 年控股在运机组总量近 25%的增幅，持续贡献装机增量。 煤价中枢下行，对 2024-1Q25 利润增长起到重要驱动作用。24 年起 国内煤炭产能增长、进口煤供应增加，供给侧放量背景下市场煤价、 长协煤价中枢同比分别回落 ...