Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term resonance of slaughter, fat - standard, and second - fattening emotions in the pig market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 11,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2601 is 12,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2603 is 11,585 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2511, the trading volume is 10,907 lots, a decrease of 10,641 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 20,254 lots, a decrease of 1,687 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2601, the trading volume is 80,626 lots, a decrease of 52,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 103,570 lots, an increase of 408 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 15,659 lots, a decrease of 13,058 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 84,415 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2511 is 520 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 315 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2601 is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 265 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 280 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 11 - 1 is - 760 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 1 - 3 is 635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - New delivery warehouses have been added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang. - In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the demand elasticity of the 2601 contract remains. Driven by the spot market, it may rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest was 12,315 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,235 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 593 lots to 290,204 lots [8] - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.49 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In October, the planned live pig出栏量 of sample enterprises increased by 5.14% compared with the actual出栏量 in September. The出栏量 may continue to increase significantly, and the supply pressure remains high. The average slaughter weight increases seasonally. In the long term, the live pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [9] - Demand: Currently, due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is high, which diverts part of the supply. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with a slight increase in the operating rate and slaughter volume [9] Operation Suggestions - Spot: The supply and demand of live pigs have both increased, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. However, currently driven by the active demand for second - round fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price continues to fluctuate and rebound [9] - Futures: The live pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity and may rebound driven by the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 5: Industry News - On October 16, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 112 yuan/head [10][12] Group 6: Data Overview - On the week of October 16, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - On the week of October 16, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14] - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [14] - As of the week of October 16, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a weekly decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a monthly decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [14] - On the week of October 16, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The enterprise operating rate fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation increased slowly [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. However, currently driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price shows an oscillating rebound. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase, and the 2601 contract may rebound under the drive of the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 12,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 9,613 lots to 290,797 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned live pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increases seasonally and slightly. In the long term, the live pig slaughter volume is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [8]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening has high replenishment enthusiasm due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, with the slaughtering rate and volume increasing slightly. On October 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 5,400 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 12,600 heads month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 16th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [13]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of October 16th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation was slowly rising [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Ih2601 contract for live pigs is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The supply of live pigs is increasing due to the high inventory of breeding sows and the recovery of production performance. The demand is expected to be seasonally strong, but the rebound space of pig prices in the second half of 2025 is limited, and the overall price will still be under pressure. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and insufficient demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. - The jd2601 contract for eggs is also in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level year-on-year, and the supply pressure continues to weigh on prices. The demand has seasonal changes within the year, but the fluctuation range is limited. Considering the cost and profit issues, the egg price is expected to remain at a low level. The 01 contract is in the peak demand season, but the high supply is expected to limit the demand acceptance, and the price will still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell short on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory Pig Section - **Supply Analysis** - The inventory of breeding sows has been stable at around 40.5 million since June 2024, higher than the normal level of 30 million. The supply of live pigs will remain high until the first half of 2026. The出栏 rhythm of farmers may affect the short - term supply [11]. - After the previous active selling by farmers, the large - sized pigs have been digested. The出栏 weight has decreased slightly, but due to the cold weather and the strong price difference between fat and standard pigs, the decrease in出栏 weight is expected to be limited, and the weight will still remain at a relatively high level [12]. - **Demand Analysis** - As the weather turns cooler, the downstream demand has rebounded slightly, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. In addition to the actual demand, secondary fattening and frozen product storage form short - term demand, but the secondary fattening sentiment has declined after the recent price rebound [25]. - **Cost and Profit Analysis** - As of October 16, the breeding cost of self - breeding and self - raising scale farms is 12.49 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 14.39 yuan/kg. The breeding enterprises are in a loss state, and the production capacity has been reduced to some extent [35]. - **Policy Analysis** - The state has carried out central pork reserve purchase and storage work to regulate market supply and demand and ensure the stable operation of the pig market. In the case of excessive price decline, the third batch of central pork reserve purchase and storage work will be launched [42]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of live pigs, such as the 09, 01, 05, 03, 11, 07, 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 3 - 5, 5 - 7, 1 - 3, 7 - 9, 9 - 11, 11 - 1 spreads and bases in Henan [50][56][65]. Egg Section - **Supply Analysis** - The supply of eggs is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the number of new - hatched chickens in the fourth quarter will decrease. At the same time, the number of culled chickens has increased, so the inventory of laying hens in the fourth quarter may decline, but it will still remain at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient [72]. - Recently, the replenishment has weakened, and the number of culled chickens has increased, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, but the inventory of laying hens is still high [73]. - **Cost Analysis** - Recently, the feed cost has decreased, and the breeding cost has also weakened. Currently, the breeding cost is about 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74]. - **Demand Analysis** - In the long - term, the egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences. In the short - and medium - term, the egg demand has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the downstream low - price replenishment and e - commerce promotions have provided some support [83][84]. - **Substitute and Inventory Analysis** - The report provides data on the prices of main meats and vegetables, as well as the inventory days of eggs in the production and circulation links [97]. - **Spread and Basis Analysis** - The report provides data on various spreads and bases of eggs, such as the 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads and the 10, 12, 11, 01, 05, 09 bases in Hebei [97].

Core Insights - The "insurance + futures" model has significantly benefited local pig farmers in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, providing them with financial security against price fluctuations in the pig market [1][2][3] - The project has seen substantial growth, with the 2024 initiative covering 36,200 pigs and amounting to approximately 62.29 million yuan, a ninefold increase from the previous year [2][4] - Farmers have gained a better understanding of futures pricing, allowing them to make informed decisions about when to sell their livestock, thus mitigating potential losses [3][4][6] Group 1: Project Implementation and Impact - The "insurance + futures" project was first introduced in 2023, providing a safety net for farmers during volatile market conditions, with one farmer receiving 670,000 yuan in compensation [2][4] - In 2024, the project provided a total compensation of 2.67 million yuan, with a compensation rate of 107%, indicating its effectiveness in risk management [2][4] - Local government support has been crucial, with subsidies covering 15% to 25% of the insurance premiums, enhancing farmer participation [4][5] Group 2: Farmer Engagement and Education - Farmers have shown increased interest in the "insurance + futures" model, recognizing its role in stabilizing income and managing risks associated with pig farming [5][6] - The model addresses the challenges faced by small farmers, who often lack the resources and knowledge to engage directly with futures markets [6][7] - Continuous communication and education efforts by the project team have helped farmers deepen their understanding of futures trading and risk management [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The "insurance + futures" model is expected to evolve from being policy-driven to market-driven, with increasing farmer willingness to participate in insurance schemes [7] - The anticipated continuation of the project into 2025 reflects growing enthusiasm among local farmers for risk management solutions [5][7] - The model is seen as a sustainable approach to enhancing the resilience of the pig farming industry in the region, contributing to long-term growth and stability [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. In the current low - price environment, attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase and drive the market. On the spot side, the supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. The spot price may still be mainly fluctuating weakly, and it has rebounded slightly driven by the secondary fattening demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 12,175 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 15,190 lots to 296,783 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 16th, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 11.16 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, the cost of secondary fattening to produce meat is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the utilization rate of pens declines, which has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has declined slightly after the festival, but as the weather continues to cool, residents' consumption may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, but the overall increase may be limited. On October 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 163,300 heads, an increase of 1,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 14,000 heads [7]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [16]. - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head compared with the previous week [16]. - **Price Difference between 150 - kg Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [16]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of October 9th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase to drive the market under the low - price background [9] - The spot market has both supply and demand increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. The spot price is likely to remain in a weakly fluctuating state [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and then fell in a fluctuating manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,195 yuan/ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 6,157 lots to 281,593 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 15th, the average price of the national outer three - yuan was 11.05 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. On the demand side, the cost of secondary fattening is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the decline in pen utilization. The terminal lacks obvious positive support, but as the weather turns cooler, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have increased slightly, but the overall increase is limited. On October 15th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,300 heads, an increase of 2,500 heads from the previous day, 9,700 heads week - on - week, and 14,200 heads month - on - month [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Profit and Cost**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head. The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - **Price Difference**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17] - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [17]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and are likely to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of second - round fattening will continue to increase to drive the market under the low - price background. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to the relatively large supply growth rate despite the increase in both supply and demand [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed positive. The highest was 12,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,806 lots to 275,436 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 10.89 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and some slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [9]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, the cost of meat production in second - round fattening is low, and there is some demand for restocking after the decline in barn utilization in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has slightly declined after the festival. However, as the weather continues to cool, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased, but the overall increase is limited. On October 14th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 159,800 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 6,000 heads week - on - week, and 11,100 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [17]. - **Piglet Price**: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [17]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The price of live pigs is expected to undergo a weak and oscillatory adjustment. From the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price to some extent. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On October 13, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 90 lots. The short - term spot price has no upward driving force, and attention should be paid to when the spot price shows an oversold signal. On the same day, the LH2511 contract of live pigs reduced its positions by 3,135 lots, with a position of about 57,300 lots, a maximum price of 11,430 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 11,120 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,125 yuan/ton [1]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on October 13 was 10.84 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.46% from October 10. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 11.24 yuan/kg and 10.47 yuan/kg respectively, with a change of +0.01 yuan/kg (+0.09%) in Henan and - 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.57%) in Sichuan. Futures prices of various contracts generally declined, and the basis of the main contract in Henan increased significantly by 227.78% [5]. II. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter may be similar to that in the third quarter. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will increase overall. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen oscillatory [2]. - The short - side logic in the market includes that the slaughter weight has not decreased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is still high, and the demand support for pig prices is limited from September to October. The long - side logic includes that the farming side has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cold, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [2]. III. Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, and it is difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only, not an investment advice) [3].

Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. Considering the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may still have a slight increase by December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. It is recommended to consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. Summary by Directory Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices adjusted weakly and fluctuated. On September 26, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 115 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted weakly and fluctuated [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: The inter - monthly spreads adjusted fluctuately, and the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend due to the weak spot market [8][11]. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price adjusted weakly and fluctuated [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The pig price in Sichuan was relatively weak [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted fluctuately. Attention should be paid to whether it can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may increase the weight - gain willingness of scattered farmers [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Difference**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight increased this week [26]. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million heads. Different data sources showed different trends in August, with some showing a slight increase and some a decrease [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows ran weakly. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the enthusiasm for capacity reduction [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In August, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in February next year [32]. - **Enthusiasm for Sow and Piglet Replenishment**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets ran weakly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was stable with a weak trend [34]. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million heads. The market will gradually enter the destocking stage, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].