Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure on the upside [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 63,280, down 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 347,729, a decrease of 73,238; and the open interest was 325,288, down 8,769. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 63,020, down 700; the trading volume was 35,506, a decrease of 1,311; and the open interest was 97,049, down 1,350 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 22,880, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Basis**: - The basis between the spot and the 2509 contract was -980, up 1,000 from the previous day. - The basis between the spot and the 2511 contract was -720, up 900 from the previous day. - The basis between the 2509 and 2511 contracts was 260, down 100 from the previous day [2]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was priced at 653, up 1 from the previous day. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 62,300, up 200 from the previous day. - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 60,700, up 200 from the previous day [2]. - **Downstream Products**: - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,705, up 45 from the previous day. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,510, up 50 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. - In June 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 14,600 tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 30% decrease year - on - year. Exports to China were 10,000 tons, a 6% increase month - on - month and a 41% decrease year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 3,016 tons, a 13% increase month - on - month and a 161% increase year - on - year. The export volume of lithium sulfate was 7,684 tons, a 21% decrease month - on - month, all shipped to China. From January to May 2025, Chile shipped 44,700 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 172% increase year - on - year [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].

研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20250701 研究品种:碳酸锌 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 理期货目报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250701）碳酸锂期货市场呈现先抑后扬走势。主力合 约 2509，收于 62780 元/吨，较昨天结算价上涨 100 元/吨，涨幅为 0.16%。成交量为 39.83 万手；持仓量为 32.67 万手，较昨日减少 4148 手。现货市场价格滞后期货市场,碳酸锂市场交投有所减弱。 图 1：碳酸锂主力合约分时图走势 图片 来源：国金期货-博易云 Li₂CO₃≥99.5% 61300 / Li₂CO₃≥99.2% 59700 / CIF6 625 / 5 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 625 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 620 / 2.1 3. 结论与展望 综合而言,若供应端无明显减产,需求端无重大利好刺激等, 碳酸锂价格仍将维持弱势震荡格局。 ...

锂行业专题报告解读 20250703 摘要 碳酸锂价格短期内或反弹至 6.7 万-7 万元/吨，若国内大型锂云母矿停产， 有望突破 7 万元。中长期看，价格中枢预计在 7 万元上下震荡，需求好 时或达 7-8 万元，需求弱时则为 6-7 万元。 当前碳酸锂价格已接近行业成本曲线的 70 分位线和现金成本曲线的 80 分位线，配置锂矿股性价比高。碳酸锂价格每上涨 1 万元，相关股票预 计平均涨幅约 30%。 澳洲部分锂矿因出口价下跌已停产，但未出现大规模停产信号。澳洲锂 辉石矿成本显著下降，但仍高于中国进口价，短期内难见新的停产迹象， 预计 2026 年可能出现更多产能出清。 南美盐湖开发进展缓慢，成本因海外通胀而显著提高，即使是最低成本 的阿卡塔玛盐湖也约为 4 万元/吨，部分项目成本更高，导致企业面临成 本压力。 非洲锂矿成为中资企业重点开发区域，成本已降至 6-7 万元/吨，现金成 本 5-6 万元/吨。尽管当前价格下多数矿山亏损，但头部厂商财务状况良 好，预计将继续投放产能并优化成本。 Q&A 最近碳酸锂期货主力合约价格出现明显反弹的原因是什么？ 短期内碳酸锂价格可能达到多少？ 短期内，碳酸锂价格可能上 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - On June 24, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a rebound after a prolonged decline, raising questions about a potential turning point in pricing [1] - The lithium carbonate industry is facing significant operational disruptions, with a near 50% shutdown rate; as of June 19, the weekly operating rate was 48.16%, with the smelting sector at 53.64% [1] - There is a clear division within the industry, where leading smelting companies maintain higher operating rates due to better order conditions, while many smaller firms with less cost advantage have ceased operations for months [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply-demand balance for leading smelting enterprises remains stable or slightly oversupplied, performing better than the overall industry, despite weakening cost support due to falling mineral prices and hedging operations [1] - In the first five months of 2025, lithium iron phosphate battery production surged to 476.03 GWh, a 75.64% year-on-year increase, significantly boosting the operating rate of the lithium iron phosphate industry [2] - However, with the traditional off-season approaching in July and August, battery manufacturers plan to reduce production, while the lithium carbonate sector is expected to maintain high supply levels, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] Group 3: Import Trends and Price Outlook - In May, lithium spodumene imports totaled approximately 605,000 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease of 2.9%, but imports from Australia and South America increased by over 20% [2] - Conversely, lithium carbonate imports fell significantly, with 21,145 tons imported in May, a 25.37% month-on-month decline, attributed to Chilean lithium salt producers pausing shipments and renegotiating prices [2] - Recent financial policies aimed at boosting consumer spending have positively impacted market sentiment, contributing to a slight rebound in lithium prices, although the overall supply remains excessive, leading to cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of this rebound [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current core contradiction lies in the downstream's strategy of "purchasing only for immediate needs + multiple small - batch purchases", and there is no production cut at the mining end. In the short term, the purchase by downstream traders drives the price to rebound, but the inventory is not actually absorbed by the end - users, giving hedging space to the lithium salt end and further creating upward pressure. In the short term, the futures price of lithium carbonate is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 61,150 with an increase of 550; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 59,550 with an increase of 550 [1]. Lithium Futures - Futures contracts such as lithium carbonate 2507, 2508, 2509, 2510, and 2511 all show price increases, with price increases of 3.03%, 3.06%, 3.33%, 3.23%, and 3.27% respectively [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 629 with an increase of 4; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 720 with an increase of 20; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1255 with an increase of 20; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 4450 with a decrease of 200; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 5300 with a decrease of 200 [1][2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,455 with an increase of 130; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,600 with a decrease of 30; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,455 with an increase of 130; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,235 with a decrease of 20 [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2150 with a decrease of 1250; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 100 with a decrease of 20; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 60 with a decrease of 140 [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,837 with an increase of 1936; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 59,032 with an increase of 407; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,635 with an increase of 269; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 37,170 with an increase of 1260; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 21,998 with a decrease of 592 [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 60,767, and the profit is - 466; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7131 [3]. Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. It has already banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 3.06% to 60,700 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 200 yuan/ton to 58,570 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,404 tons to 22,375 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate output increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the total social inventory continued to increase, and the total inventory turnover days of lithium carbonate rose to about 2 months. Meanwhile, the lithium ore inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Since June is the earnings report disclosure season, the overseas shipment volume also increased. Currently, the overall inventory level of lithium ore + lithium salt reaches about 3.5 months, indicating significant inventory pressure [3]. - The current price level is basically at a stage bottom. From the perspective of the lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars, there is still short - term support. However, there has been no inflection point in the fundamentals, and market sentiment remains bearish. Due to yesterday's market news disturbances, the futures price strengthened rapidly. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and warehouse receipts are presented, along with the supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate. The current price is at a stage bottom, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term risks exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 23 to June 24, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose from 59,120 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium aluminum phosphate stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium and lithium salt products such as metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads of different lithium products, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium battery products such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells from 2024 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][36]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The downstream adopts a "just - in - time procurement + multiple small - batch" strategy, which has weak support for prices. The supply side continues to resume work, suppressing the futures price. The ore price remains basically stable. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will decline in the short term. There are no signs of production cuts at the ore end, and there is a possibility that the lithium carbonate price will form a negative feedback with the ore price again later [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,400 yuan, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,800 yuan, down 50 yuan [1] Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 59,820 yuan, with a decline of 0.93%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 59,360 yuan, with a decline of 1.56%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 58,900 yuan, with a decline of 1.93%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 58,860 yuan, with a decline of 1.9%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 58,800 yuan, with a decline of 1.93% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li₂O: 5.5% - 6%) is 620, down 1; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 685, down 10; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1210, down 15; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 5625; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 6540, down 55 [1][2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1500 yuan, with a change of 1110 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 460 yuan, with a change of 300 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 920 yuan, with a change of 560 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,901 tons, an increase of 1352 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,625 tons, an increase of 972 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,366 tons, a decrease of 320 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 35,910 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,793 tons, a decrease of 2164 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,226 yuan, and the profit is - 668 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 64,891 yuan, and the profit is - 6828 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price continues to decline due to supply-demand imbalances, and a price recovery is unlikely until high-cost mines reduce production [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - From January to June, lithium carbonate spot prices initially rose slightly but then fell, with futures prices mirroring this trend. The highest price was 81,680 yuan/ton on January 20, while it dropped below 60,000 yuan/ton by the end of May [2]. - Supply is increasing as new lithium salt projects come online, such as a 40,000 tons/year lithium salt integration project by Salt Lake Co. and the Mariana lithium salt lake project by Ganfeng Lithium, which began production in February [2]. - Global lithium carbonate production is expected to reach approximately 1.6 million tons by 2025, while demand is projected at around 1.32 million tons, leading to a surplus of 280,000 tons [2]. Cost Structure of Lithium Extraction - The production costs for lithium extraction vary: spodumene extraction costs range from 50,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton, lithium mica extraction costs are between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton, and salt lake extraction costs range from 30,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Salt lake extraction remains the most cost-effective method, with current market prices still above their production costs [3]. Cost Reduction Strategies - Lithium mica companies are actively reducing costs through process upgrades and improved yield, with some leading companies achieving profitability despite previous cost pressures [4]. - Innovations in lithium mica extraction technology are expected to significantly lower costs and improve lithium recovery rates, with reports indicating a 7-8% increase in recovery rates and reduced waste [4]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate price has not yet reached its bottom, with supply expected to grow steadily from June to August while demand enters a seasonal lull. Inventory levels for downstream users have decreased from around 14 days to 7 days [5]. - The market is anticipated to remain oversupplied until high-cost mines implement significant production cuts, which is crucial for stabilizing prices [5].

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/06/18 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 100000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 60450 -50 4000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 58850 -50 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 3000 碳酸锂2507 60220 0. 2% 碳酸锂2508 60060 0. 64% 40000 碳酸锂2509 0. 74% 59860 碳酸锂2510 - 1000 59820 0.67% 20000 碳酸锂2511 59760 0. 47% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 622 -2 46 est (Li20:5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60383 H 利 # 注 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -775 65237 P 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7125 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The production high of lithium carbonate drives the continuation of inventory accumulation, and the lithium price is running weakly [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,440, down 1,240; the trading volume was 169,708, down 66,489; the open interest was 162,882, down 15,353. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 60,480, down 1,260; the trading volume was 154,540, down 14,192; the open interest was 238,580, up 22,026. The warehouse receipt volume was 32,383, down 454 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2507 was 210; the basis of spot - 2509 was 170; the basis of 2507 - 2509 was -40 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 631, up 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,225, up 15 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650, up 150; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050, up 150; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 65,700, down 350 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 30,475, up 30; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 105,530, up 50; the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 52,500, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,801 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The lithium carbonate industry inventory this week was 133,549 tons, an increase of 1,117 tons from last week. Among them, the upstream inventory was 57,653 tons, the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, and other inventory was 35,210 tons [2]. - **Power Battery Loading**: In May, China's power battery loading volume was 57.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1%. From January to May, the cumulative power battery loading volume was 241.4GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.4% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].