美国就业市场

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美国7月ADP就业报告速评
news flash· 2025-07-30 12:28
Core Insights - In July, the ADP employment numbers increased by 104,000, surpassing the expected increase of 76,000, while the previous value was revised from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of 23,000 [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies ramped up hiring in July after a sharp slowdown in the previous month, although the pace of hiring aligns with the trend of weakening labor demand [1] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson indicated that the hiring and compensation data generally suggest that the economy is in a healthy state [1] - Employers are increasingly optimistic that consumers, as the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient [1]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250707
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 08:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin market is in narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. The polyolefin consumption has entered a relative off - season, and the overall spot price performance is average. The disk price fluctuates more following the cost and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, the cost support weakens. Polyolefin is gradually digesting selling pressure through sideways consolidation. Attention should be paid to the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly based on crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season. The effectiveness of supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance should be focused on [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7243, 7221, and 7282 respectively, with changes of - 19, - 27, and - 2 compared to the day before, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.37%, and - 0.03%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7042, 7032, and 7078 respectively, with changes of 1, - 9, and 4 and percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.13%, and 0.06%. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 44517, 180, and 301296 respectively, and the open interests were 106805, 1584, and 448681 respectively, with changes of - 5366, 54, and 4549. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 28869, 598, and 210061 respectively, and the open interests were 107738, 3668, and 414623 respectively, with changes of - 330, 481, and 4430. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for LL (January - May, May - September, September - January) were 22, - 61, and 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 14, - 36, and 22. For PP, the current spreads were 10, - 46, and 36 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, - 33, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2400 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 558 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2415 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6980 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - The strong US employment market supports the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are waiting for clarification on President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on multiple countries. It is expected that OPEC and its production - cut allies will further increase crude oil production in August, and international oil prices continue to decline cautiously. On July 4, 2025 (US Independence Day), there was no settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but electronic trading was normal. The last trading price of the August 2025 futures electronic disk was 66.50 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.75% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading range of 66.04 - 67.18 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 68.30 dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.50 dollars or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 67.75 - 68.89 dollars [2].
非农数据惊魂,黄金大跌40美元终结三连阳,多头结束了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-05 23:42
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility following the Independence Day holiday, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price levels, creating a battleground for bulls and bears [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Trading volume in the gold market dropped by 40% due to the early closure of the New York exchange for Independence Day, leading to a liquidity crisis [1]. - Gold prices fluctuated within a narrow range of $3323 to $3330, with a volatility of less than $7, indicating a stagnant market [1]. - A sudden sell-off of 500 contracts pushed prices below the $3320 mark, but aggressive buying from central banks quickly restored prices, highlighting the market's fragility [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold prices breaking below the 60-day moving average ($3319) and the 20-day moving average ($3345), indicating a bearish trend [3]. - The 4-hour chart presents a contrasting view, with a long lower shadow at the $3311 low and an RSI divergence suggesting that selling pressure may be waning [3]. - The $3320-$3330 range is identified as a critical battleground, consolidating various technical indicators that could influence future price movements [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a surprising increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 new jobs added, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since the pandemic, but the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024, indicating underlying economic weakness [5]. - The dollar index surged by 55 points, surpassing the 97.4 mark, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points following the employment data release [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The gold market is facing three conflicting pressures: diverging policy expectations, easing geopolitical risks, and a surge in central bank gold purchases [5]. - While traders are selling gold in anticipation of delayed interest rate cuts, they are also looking to buy at lower levels due to signs of economic weakness [5]. - Central banks globally, particularly the People's Bank of China, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, with premiums in the Shanghai gold market rising to $35 per ounce [5]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to employ a "tightrope strategy," placing buy orders at $3323 with a stop-loss at $3316 and a target of $3335, while considering short positions above $3335 [7]. - Attention should be given to potential tariff policies from the U.S., which could influence trading decisions significantly [7]. - The gold-silver ratio has risen to 89.7, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunities as silver prices remain suppressed [7].
美国6月份非农就业新增14.7万人超市场预期 市场对美联储7月份降息预期骤然“降温”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-04 12:03
Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a stable labor market overall [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, with long-term unemployment rising by 190,000 to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, highlighting challenges for certain labor groups [2] - Job growth was primarily driven by state government and healthcare sectors, with state and local government jobs adding 73,000 positions, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs in June [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July have significantly decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 18.6% to 4.7% following the strong employment data [2] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts remains uncertain, with a potential shift towards a more cautious approach in hiring observed in the private sector [2][3] - The focus may shift to U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released on July 15, as the labor market remains stable [3]
2025年6月美国非农数据点评:美国非农,超预期背后仍有隐忧
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-04 11:26
观研 SHINE T | 美国非农:超预期背后仍有隐忧 | ન્ | 王宇晴(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025年6月美国非农数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | 本报告导读: | CR | 梁中华(分析师) | | 6月美国新增非农就业超预期回升,失业率回落,市场降息预期有所降温。不过,私 | S | 021-38676666 | | 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 本报告导读: 6月美国新增非农就业超预期回升,失业率回落,市场降息预期有所降温。不过,私 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 出就业市场仍处于放缓趋势。我们认为,当前美国就业市场尚未明显失速,关税对 通胀的影响仍有待观察,美联储短期内难以降息。 投资要点: O 非农数据:哪些好消息?亮点一:6月新增非农就业超预期回升。6 月美国新增非农就业为14.7万人,较5月(14.4万)有所增加。连 续三个月平均新增非农就业人 ...
6月美国非农就业数据点评:就业超预期韧性,美联储更为从容
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-04 09:12
Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 and a revised previous value of 144,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%[5] - The private sector employment growth was below expectations, while government employment saw a significant increase of 66,000 jobs, primarily in state education positions[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - The month-over-month wage growth for the private sector decreased to 0.2%, below expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 3.7%[6] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector fell to 0.1%, while the service sector also saw a decline in wage growth, indicating a cooling of core service inflation pressures[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its current policy stance, with a high probability of no rate change in July[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment data release[6] - The upcoming expiration of the "equivalent tariffs" pause and its economic impact will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[6] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[29]
怎么看美国6月非农就业数据
GF SECURITIES· 2025-07-04 08:20
Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%[3] - The average increase in non-farm jobs over the past three months is 150,000[3] Sector Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, below the expected 100,000[3] - State and local government sectors added 80,000 jobs, with healthcare contributing 59,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 20,000, accounting for 96% of total job growth[3] - Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and federal government sectors each lost 7,000 jobs, indicating weaknesses in these areas[4] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate dropping from 1.12% to 1.11%[4] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[7] - Job leavers contributed 0.07 percentage points to the unemployment rate, while other factors negatively impacted it[6] - The employment diffusion index fell below 50 for the second time since August 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth[6] Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%[7] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024[8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in July is high, with a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September[8] - Strong employment data and policy stimulus have alleviated concerns about economic downturns, supporting risk assets[8]
美国非农:超预期背后仍有隐忧
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-04 07:19
宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.04 | 美国非农:超预期背后仍有隐忧 | [Table_Authors] | 王宇晴(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025 年 6 月美国非农数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | 本报告导读: | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 6 月美国新增非农就业超预期回升,失业率回落,市场降息预期有所降温。不过,私 | | 021-38676666 | | 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | 出就业市场仍处于放缓趋势。我们认为,当前美国就业市场尚未明显失速,关税对 | | | | 通胀的影响仍有待观察,美联储短期内难以降息。 | | | 投资要点: 风险提示:就业市场非线性恶化 题 证 券 [Table_Summary] 非农数据:哪些好消息?亮点一:6 月新增非农就业超预期回升。6 月美国新增非农就业为 14.7 万人,较 5 月(14.4 万)有所增加。连 续三个月平均新 ...
“小非农”和非农就业数据背离 机构对美联储降息预期再度摇摆
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 05:43
当地时间7月3日公布的美国6月新增非农就业和失业率均超预期强劲,显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性, 但前一日公布的有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数则"爆冷转负"减少3.3万人,录得2023年3月以来的 最大降幅,使得市场对美联储降息预期再度出现摇摆。 对于两份天差地别的美国就业报告,接受新华财经采访的分析师多数认为,美国就业市场结构正逐步恶 化,政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半,私人部门就业人数较上个月减少了6.3万,劳动力市场整体趋 弱。但6月非农就业数据可以让美联储进一步观察夏季关税对通胀的影响,预计美联储将在9月的议息会 议上再度降息。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为,两者巨大的差异背后主要有两方面原因,一是,ADP就业调查只能覆 盖约17%的就业岗位,且样本中有79%是大中型企业;而非农就业调查可以覆盖80%左右的就业岗位。 二是,关税对大中型企业的影响更大,对小企业的影响要小很多,原因在于小企业通常很少参与国际贸 易。实际上,ADP与非农就业的背离幅度从3月之后开始加深,这也与关税升级的时间相一致。 美联储降息预期反复摇摆 近期美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示支持7月降息后,市场对美联储降息时点提前至7月的押注 ...
6月新增非农数据再超预期,美联储降息前景生变?多家券商最新解读来了
第一财经· 2025-07-04 01:56
2025.07. 04 本文字数:1134,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 ①华泰证券:6月非农再超预期,7月降息概率回落 华泰证券表示,6月新增非农数据再超预期,美联储7月降息概率进一步下降,但考虑到关税、移民放缓 对三季度新增就业的拖累,维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。6月新增非农超预期、失业率超预 期下行或受到多个因素干扰,未改变就业市场放缓的趋势:6月天气偏热叠加罢工拖累消退,对新增非农 提振约在3-4万人左右;5-6月美国劳动力规模下降75.5万人、劳动参与率合计下行0.3pp,背后或是由 于驱逐移民"压低"就业均衡增长率(即失业率不会上行的新增就业水平)。往前看,伴随移民放缓等对美 国经济特别是需求端滞后影响进一步显现,加之前瞻指标NFIB企业招聘意愿显示6月后新增非农走弱风险 上升,三季度就业或有所走弱,故维持联储9月-12月两次预防式降息的判断。 ②中信证券:预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息 中信证券研报表示,2025年6月美国新增非农就业人数超预期,失业率低于预期。不过,本份非农报告实 则显示美国就业市场继续走弱。依旧认为美国就业市场"缓冲垫"有限,就业市场继续走弱失 ...