格隆汇9月15日｜投资管理公司Payden & Rygel表示，美联储本周降息25个基点还是50个基点只是"次要 分歧"。其分析师指出，关键在于当前劳动力市场处于脆弱平衡状态——这与2024年的情况截然不同。 他们表示："为避免平衡崩溃，美联储应如理事沃勒近期演讲所建议的'尽快推进降息'。"该公司对未来 12-15个月的经济展望表明，联邦基金利率应逐步接近3%。目前美联储设定的联邦基金利率目标区间为 4.25%-4.50%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference after the most recent meeting in July. As the next meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee approaches, investors, economists, and policymakers are trying to predict how the central bankers will react to a weakening labor market and stubborn unemployment. When is the next Fed meeting? The next meeting of the FOMC will take place over Sept. 16 and 17. During this meeting, the members will ...

智通财经APP获悉，今夜，美国8月CPI数据将重磅出炉，债券交易员们正为此做准备，或将削弱他们对 美联储从本月开始并持续到2026年的一系列大幅降息的押注。疲软的就业数据和温和的生产者价格数据 让交易员们认为，美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上降息25个基点已是板上钉钉，到年底可能还会有两 次这样的降息动作。但除此之外，市场对经济风险平衡的看法已经发生变化，目前的市场定位倾向于认 为官员们最终会将利率降至被视为中性水平以下，以至于政策会刺激经济增长以避免衰退。 这标志着一个巨大的变化，因为在过去一年的大部分时间里，由于通胀居高不下，交易员们一直犹豫是 否要对如此大规模的宽松政策进行押注。这种情况使得人们对将于美东时间周四公布的美国消费者价格 指数报告的关注度更高，预计该报告将显示核心年度读数远高于美联储的目标。在长达一个月的反弹将 美国两年期国债收益率推低至4月以来最低水平之后，风险在于投资者可能过于乐观了。 "前端已经为更疲软的经济定价，而没有关注通胀，"Columbia Threadneedle总回报债券基金的投资组合 经理埃德·阿尔-侯赛尼表示。"如果关注点回到通胀上，如果数据很高，前端将有点脆弱。" ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in a heated debate regarding the neutral interest rate (r-star) amidst challenges of weakening economic momentum and liquidity management [1][2] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that structural factors limiting long-term interest rates remain strong, suggesting that the natural equilibrium rate of the U.S. economy is still hovering at pre-pandemic lows [1][2] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, with median forecasts for the neutral rate around 3%, reflecting significant internal divergence among policymakers [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that employment concerns have become a key consideration, opening the door for a potential rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction process is entering a critical phase, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warning of potential temporary pressures in the money market [4] - The current reserve balance in the banking system stands at $3.3 trillion, indicating substantial room before reaching the estimated "minimum adequate level" of $2.7 trillion [4] Group 3 - Lorie Logan emphasized the need for reform in communication mechanisms within the Fed, proposing changes to the presentation of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to enhance policy transparency [5] - Analysts predict that the Fed will face three major challenges in the coming months: the debate over the magnitude of rate cuts due to differing views on neutral rates, precision in liquidity management during the balance sheet reduction phase, and maintaining policy continuity amid leadership transitions [6] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist expects the Fed may implement an unconventional 50 basis point cut in September if the labor market deteriorates faster than anticipated [7] - UBS Wealth Management's investment director highlighted two critical moments for investors to watch: the September FOMC meeting's guidance on rate cuts and market reactions when reserve levels exceed $3 trillion in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy's neutral interest rate may not differ significantly from pre-pandemic levels, as structural factors that suppressed rates have not disappeared [2][3]. Group 1: Neutral Interest Rate Insights - Williams stated that the global trends in population and productivity growth that previously lowered the neutral rate (r*) have not reversed [3]. - The estimated neutral interest rate for early 2025 shows no significant rebound, indicating that the era of low r* is far from over [3]. - The Federal Reserve's median estimate for the neutral rate is currently at 3%, higher than the pre-pandemic level of 2.5%, with a range between 2.5% and nearly 4% [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Rate Decisions - Market consensus indicates an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with upcoming data likely to influence the trajectory of future rate cuts [4]. - Analysts speculate that the median dot plot for 2025 may suggest only two rate cuts for the year, but changes in risk dynamics could lead to a downward adjustment in the median point, indicating a total cut of 75 basis points by year-end [4]. - Williams previously indicated that a moderate restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate due to inflation threats from tariffs [4].

Core Viewpoint - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, suggests that the actual federal funds rate may bottom out around mid-2027, indicating a moderate bearish outlook on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds following the Jackson Hole meeting [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The interest rate market trends post-Jackson Hole suggest that the federal funds rate could decline to 3% in approximately two years [1] - Gross anticipates that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds could reach 4%, although he finds this difficult to imagine given the future supply of trillions of dollars [1] Yield Predictions - Investors are advised to maintain a moderately bearish stance, with expectations that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will fluctuate between 4.15% and 4.45% in the coming months [1] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approximately 4.3%, which Gross notes is "not cheap, especially after taxes" [1] Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased by 6.3%, but it has increased by 13.1% compared to one year ago [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of slowing down [1] - Inflation conditions have improved markedly compared to three years ago [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Stephen Milan's upcoming addition to the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated new chair replacing Jerome Powell by May suggest a downward trend in interest rates over the next 18 months [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the FOMC meeting held from July 29 to 30 [1][3] - Committee members acknowledged that economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - Inflation remains slightly elevated, and there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] Group 2 - Almost all committee members agreed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, with some dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening in the labor market [3]

Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]