Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, rising over 500 points and exceeding 0.7% on May 2, 2025, closing at 7.226 [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08%, driven by gains in tech stocks such as Xiaomi (+6%), Alibaba (+3.8%), Tencent (+2.56%), and Kingsoft Cloud (+4%) [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, noting that the two-year Treasury yield was 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33% [1] Group 2 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for slow rate cuts, threatening to dismiss him, while emphasizing that the economy may slow without immediate rate reductions [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased significantly since Trump's inauguration, dropping from approximately 4.63% on January 20 to around 4.15% recently, which has saved the federal government substantial interest costs [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy, while also managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

当地时间周四，美国财政部长贝森特在接受媒体采访时表示，两年期美债收益率发出美联储应该降息的 信号： 美国国债市场正在发出美联储应该降息的信号。我们看到两年期美债收益率已低于联邦基 金利率。这表明市场认为美联储应该考虑降息。 贝森特的最新表态呼应了美国总统特朗普。特朗普此前多次批评鲍威尔今年未降息，认为能源和其他物 价的下降足以支持降息。 当天，美国高通胀吹哨人、前美国财政部长萨默斯 驳斥：不能靠市场指导，下周降息大错。 市场对贝森特提到的"两年期美债收益率发出美联储应该降息的信号"也不买单， 美国两年期国债收益率 盘中涨幅扩大至10个基点，报3.7%。 美国 前 财政部长萨默斯驳斥 周四，美国高通胀吹哨人、前美国财政部长萨默斯表示， 债券市场的定价并不等于对美联储应否调整 利率的判断。他强调，如果政策制定者在下周放松政策，将是一个"非常严重的错误"。 萨默斯表示，如果之前已经开始降息，那将是一个严重错误，而在即将召开的会议上降息同样会是一个 非常严重的错误。若在5月7日降息，将削弱市场对美联储抗击通胀决心的信心，从而推高长期借贷成 本。 "新美联储通讯社"点评 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick ...

美国财长贝森特：美国2年期国债收益率低于联邦基金利率暗示美联储应该降息。 ...

美国财长贝森特：我们预计经济数据会被修正。 美国第一季度（GDP）表现不错，预计数据会被修正。 我们的政策会降低通胀。 美国2年期国债收益率低于联邦基金利率暗示美联储应该降息。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March 2025 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, marking the second pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024 [3][4]. - The Fed announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [4][6]. - The overall tone of the March FOMC statement was more dovish than expected, indicating increased uncertainty around the economic outlook and a more cautious approach to monetary policy [3][6]. - The Fed's economic projections for 2025 and 2026 show a downward revision in GDP growth to 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward [14][15]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decisions - The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged and to slow down QT, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising economic uncertainty [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities is aimed at managing liquidity in the banking system [6]. Economic Projections - The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate forecast for 2025 to 4.4% and an upward revision of PCE inflation to 2.7% [14][15]. - The Fed maintains that the likelihood of a recession remains low, despite increased policy uncertainty [14][15]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.08% and the Nasdaq by 1.41% [16]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have also shifted, with probabilities for cuts in May and June 2025 increasing [16].