Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a series of easing measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) starting May 15, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [1] - The PBOC also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repo rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Specific interest rates were reduced more significantly, such as the first home loan rate for five years or more dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, and the rate for structural monetary policy tools decreasing from 1.75% to 1.5% [2] Structural Policies - The PBOC increased the re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and established a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care [3] - An additional 300 billion yuan was allocated for agricultural and small business re-lending, supporting the "two new" and "two重" policies aimed at boosting service demand and promoting high-quality development [3] Capital Market Focus - The current monetary policy has shown a heightened focus on the capital markets, incorporating market volatility into policy considerations to stabilize both the stock and real estate markets [4] - The PBOC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) discussed the role of state-owned entities in stabilizing the stock market through policy tools in April, indicating future actions will be more significant [4] - New structural policies include optimizing support for the capital market with a combined quota of 800 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase re-lending [4] Economic Context - The announced policies are a response to external pressures and aim to stabilize market expectations following a 5.4% growth in the first quarter, which exceeded expectations [5] - The measures are designed to prepare for potential negative impacts from ongoing external shocks, particularly related to U.S.-China trade tensions, while focusing on maintaining stable growth [5][6]

4月25日中央政治局会议指出，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，要强化底线思维，加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。金融部门快速响应中央决策部署，5月7日集中发布了一揽子政策措 施，为支持经济回升向好进一步营造良好的货币金融环境。 总体来看，一揽子金融政策的力度超出市场预期。人民银行去年先后实施了几轮力度较大的货币政策调 整，持续显现支持性货币政策的立场；今年在面临外部冲击的关键时点，又及时推出降准降息、创设并 优化结构性工具等政策组合。 从价格来看，利率水平已经处于历史低位，央行也多次表态，通过强化利率政策的执行和监督，降低银 行负债成本，能够进一步拓宽降息空间，在前期一系列利率工作成效的支撑下，此次降息在调降所有结 构性货币政策工具利率的同时，又再次下调政策利率至1.4%的低位，体现了货币政策稳经济的决心。 从总量来看，本次降准除了针对大型银行和中型银行下调0.5个百分点外，还阶段性将汽车金融公司、 金融租赁公司存款准备金率从5%调降至0%，整体效果看也超过去年的两次降准力度。此外，央行还下 调了再贷款利率和部分机构的准备金率，也被视为结构性的举措，同样能起到降息降准的作用，再次印 证货币政策工具 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-05-13 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观研究 央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率波动或有所加大 投资要点 （1）适度宽松货币政策总基调不变，从择机调整到灵活把握。 本次报告在货币政策思路方面延续中央经济工作会议和"425"中共 中央政治局会议精神，坚持适度宽松货币政策的基调，但政策节奏或 有所调整，操作节奏或有变化，表述从"择机调整优化政策力度和节 奏"，调整为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，或意味着在外部环 境无显著变化的情况下，短期或更关注存量货币政策落地，增量货币 政策出台概率有所降低。 （2）央行再提利率风险，短期长端利率或存在回调风险。央行 在专栏 4 特别强调了利率风险问题，关注短期长期国债利率或存在回 调的风险。此外，本次报告删除了资金空转表述， ...

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council's Information Office emphasized a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and addressing the complex domestic and international economic landscape [1] Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Structural adjustments included a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various special tool interest rates to 1.5% and an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation by 300 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [2] Support for Key Sectors - The policy aims to enhance support for agriculture and small enterprises by increasing the re-lending quota by 300 billion yuan, coupled with interest rate reductions to stimulate demand [3] - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the first home loan rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market [3] Market Impact - The measures are expected to optimize liquidity and funding costs, enhancing financial support for market stability and reducing the debt burden for enterprises and residents [4] - The emphasis on "counter-cyclical adjustment" and "moderately loose monetary policy" is likely to boost market confidence and stabilize expectations for economic recovery [4][5] Structural Support and Capital Market - The targeted support for sectors such as technological innovation and inclusive finance is anticipated to create market hotspots and improve confidence in the capital market [5] - The capital market is expected to maintain active trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 3300 points, potentially attracting new capital into the market [6]

Economic Indicators - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI fell by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, showing stable growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Market Performance - On May 12, the Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) surged by 1.06%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Quan Feng Holdings (+6.59%), Cha Baidao (+4.84%), and Guoquan (+4.51%) [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) opened over 1% higher on May 12, with an average daily trading volume of 182 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has seen net inflows from leveraged funds for three consecutive days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 7.15 million yuan, bringing the latest financing balance to 14.76 million yuan [1] Financial Support for Consumption - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan loan facility aimed at supporting consumption and elderly care, indicating a commitment to enhance financial support for these sectors [3] - The PBOC emphasized the importance of boosting consumption as a key goal of monetary policy, reflecting a structural shift towards enhancing consumer demand rather than merely increasing investment [4] Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) is positioned to benefit from new consumption stimulus policies and supports T+0 trading, focusing on four major sectors: food and beverages, textiles and apparel, household appliances, and tourism and leisure facilities [5] - The ETF includes leading consumer companies that complement the A-share market, featuring well-known domestic brands and emerging consumer firms, enhancing its attractiveness to investors [6] - The ETF is noted for its significant scale and flexibility, making it a prominent choice in the Hong Kong market for investors looking to capitalize on consumer trends [7]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has established a service consumption and elderly care relending program with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at boosting consumption demand and providing financial support to the elderly care industry [1] - The new relending policy is expected to stimulate the service consumption and elderly care market, promoting consumption upgrades and meeting public demand [1] - The policy will be executed until the end of 2027 and will include 26 national financial institutions as eligible recipients [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and reduced the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to decrease the cost of home purchases [2] - The five-year housing provident fund interest rate has been reduced from 2.85% to 2.6%, resulting in a monthly payment reduction of 133 yuan for a million yuan mortgage, saving approximately 48,000 yuan in total interest [2] - The central bank's actions are seen as key measures to stabilize the real estate market and support high-quality economic development [2] Group 3 - The first quarter monetary policy execution report indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy is being implemented to support consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [3] - The report emphasizes the need to promote a reasonable recovery of prices by balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [3] - The report also highlights the importance of increasing support for the real economy to effectively respond to external shocks and stabilize foreign trade [3] Group 4 - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to lower deposit rates through a self-discipline mechanism, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of narrowing interest margins for banks [4] - It is anticipated that deposit rates will be reduced by an average of about 0.1 percentage points, which will help stabilize growth and mitigate risks [4] Group 5 - Private banks are facing challenges such as narrowing net interest margins and asset quality pressure, leading to a slowdown in growth and adjustments in asset-liability structures [5] - Some private banks are enhancing their self-operated channels to cope with market competition, while growth on the asset side remains relatively constrained [5] Group 6 - The competition among the top four city commercial banks is intensifying, with Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank showing significant growth in key indicators [6] - Both banks are experiencing rapid growth in corporate loans and financial investments, which are driving asset expansion [6] - Despite not surpassing Beijing Bank in asset scale, Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank have stronger profitability and higher market valuations [6] Group 7 - The economic and financial landscape in China is undergoing significant changes, with Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces emerging as new battlegrounds for city commercial banks [7] Group 8 - Shunde Rural Commercial Bank is accelerating its expansion by planning to integrate multiple village and town banks, aiming to optimize financial resource allocation [8] - The bank's integration efforts are in line with policy requirements for small and medium-sized bank reforms and aim to enhance its financial layout in the Greater Bay Area [8] Group 9 - CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank are planning to establish financial asset investment companies (AIC) to expand their business boundaries and enhance financial services for innovative enterprises [9] - The expansion of AIC trials is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the industry and increase the coverage and specialization of services for innovative companies [9] Group 10 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is promoting a government-backed financing guarantee system for small and micro enterprises, with guarantee fees not exceeding 1%, significantly lower than commercial guarantee levels [10] Group 11 - In the first quarter, 85 property insurance companies reported a total net profit exceeding 25.6 billion yuan, driven by improvements in auto insurance business and the gradual release of investment income from the previous year [11] Group 12 - Many securities firms have been frequently updating reports on the progress of bank listing guidance since April, with 15 banks currently in the listing guidance registration stage [12] - These banks face urgent capital replenishment needs, asset confirmation challenges, and the need to optimize their equity structures [12] Group 13 - The Guangdong Provincial Association plans to establish a provincial-level rural commercial bank to optimize management systems and enhance market-oriented and professional levels [13] - This reform aims to better serve Guangdong's strategic development goals and follows a trend of provincial-level rural credit union reforms across multiple provinces [13]

Group 1 - The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Geneva from May 10 to 11, resulting in important consensus and substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism [1] - The State Council of China emphasized the need to support free trade pilot zones to align with international high standards and to enhance institutional innovation in service trade and cross-border data flow [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a new loan program for service consumption and elderly care, with a total quota of 500 billion yuan to encourage financial support in key service sectors [1] Group 2 - The first quarter monetary policy report from the People's Bank of China highlighted the importance of maintaining reasonable growth in financing and monetary supply while implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released its legislative work plan for 2025, focusing on strengthening regulation in key areas of the capital market to protect the rights of small and medium investors [2] - The retail market for new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 905,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, while the cumulative retail for January to April was 3.324 million units, growing by 35.7% [2] Group 3 - Over 20 commercial banks have lowered their fixed deposit rates since April, with high-interest deposits above 3% becoming increasingly rare, indicating a shift towards lower interest rates in the banking sector [2] - The stock performance of companies such as Chengfei Integration and Red Wall Holdings indicated no significant changes in their operational environment, while Wanxiang Qianchao is in discussions for a major asset restructuring [2] - The chairman of Maiwei Bio is under investigation for suspected insider trading, and the chairman of China First Heavy Industries is also under disciplinary review [2]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective May 15, 2025 [1] - The central bank also lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.50% to 1.40% starting May 8, 2025, as part of a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Economic Report - The People's Bank of China released the "2025 Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report," emphasizing the importance of boosting consumption to stabilize growth [2] - The report highlighted the sustainability of China's government debt compared to the US and Japan, and the need to promote a reasonable recovery in prices by balancing supply and demand [2] - It called for maintaining ample liquidity and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [2] Financial Support Initiatives - The central bank established a service consumption and elderly care re-loan program with a quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at increasing financial support for key service sectors and the elderly care industry [3] - The re-loan has a one-year term with a 1.5% annual interest rate and can be extended twice, with a maximum usage period of three years [3] Company News - Duople announced that shareholder Cai Shuping plans to reduce his stake by up to 2% through block trading [4] - Qujiang Cultural Tourism reported that its controlling shareholder's 4.7% stake is set to be auctioned, amounting to 12 million shares [5] - Chengfei Integration confirmed that there have been no significant changes in its operational environment despite recent stock price fluctuations [6][7] - Hongqiang Co. stated that there are no undisclosed significant matters regarding the company amid stock price volatility [8] - Guizhou Tire's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by between 50 million and 100 million yuan within six months [9] - Wanxiang Qianchao is in discussions for a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of Wanxiang America Corp. [10] - Maiwei Bio's chairman is under investigation for suspected insider trading, but it is not expected to impact the company's operations significantly [11] - Bank of China received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a specific A-share issuance, pending further regulatory approval [12]

Market Overview - During the week of May 5 to May 9, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.92%, 2.00%, and 3.27% respectively. The defense and military industry led the gains with an increase of 6.33% [6] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.44 times, with a risk premium of 6.40%, which is above one standard deviation. The ChiNext Index has a PE (TTM) of 30.25, below one negative standard deviation [6] Economic Policies - On May 7, the State Council held a press conference announcing a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates. Additionally, a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program was established [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for moderately loose monetary policy in its first-quarter monetary policy report, highlighting that boosting consumption is key to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [6] Trade Performance - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April alone, the trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [6] - Exports in April amounted to 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [6] Market Sentiment - The recent financial policies have effectively boosted market confidence, with market indices recovering from the impacts of tariff shocks. However, the high tariff barriers may gradually affect the real economy, and the latest CPI and PPI data indicate ongoing risks of endogenous deflation [6] - The report anticipates that the A-share market will maintain wide fluctuations with a focus on structural trends, particularly favoring sectors like technology and military in the medium term [6] Valuation Analysis - In terms of valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, and forestry are at historical low PE levels, while real estate, computers, and steel are at historical high PE levels. For PB valuation, agriculture, construction materials, and oil and gas are at historical lows [28][30] - The report includes detailed tables showing the current PE and PB valuations of various sectors, indicating their positions within the historical percentiles over the past decade [29][30]

央视网消息：中国人民银行近期部署一系列综合性系统性的增量政策，金融部门宣布一揽子政策打出重磅"组合拳"，释放稳市 场稳预期强信号，引起国际舆论广泛关注。 英国路透社：进一步激发市场活力 文章称，中国将指导金融机构加大对消费、外贸、科技创新和小微企业的支持。这意味着，在全球经济形势复杂多变的背景 下，中国政府一方面看重"稳市场稳预期"，另一方面，重视推动科技创新与产业升级，培育新的增长动能。事实证明，外部压力不 会阻碍中国发展，反而会加速其自主创新步伐、推动经济高质量发展。 《巴基斯坦观察家报》：展现灵活性与战略定力 《日本经济新闻》: 积极应对 稳中有进 文章指出，一揽子金融政策是针对全球经济不确定性加剧所做的积极应对，体现了中国政府在应对外部压力时的果断与智慧。 这一系列举措表明，中国坚定推进稳增长政策，确保经济平稳运行。多家国际金融研究机构研究认为，中国适度宽松政策具有"稳 中有进"的特点，预期将会带来积极影响，能够有效支撑国内经济增长。 新加坡亚洲新闻台：培育新的增长动能 中国确认保持适度宽松的货币政策立场，根据国内外经济形势，灵活调整政策实施的力度与节奏，采用多种政策工具保持流动 性充裕，通过定向政策 ...