Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a decline in yields after an initial rise, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields both decreasing by nearly 1 basis point [1] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.32%, the 10-year main contract by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.12%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [1] Yield Changes - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) fell by 0.45 basis points to 1.754%, while the 10-year policy bank bond (active bond 250215) decreased by 0.8 basis points to 1.931% [1] - The 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) saw a yield drop of 2.5 basis points to 2.24% [1] Auction Results - In the primary market, the weighted average interest rates for various bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond (250211X11) at 1.4748% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86 [3] - The 3-year government bond (250214X31) had a weighted average interest rate of 1.7263% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.54 [3] Credit Bond Market Performance - The top five non-financial credit bonds by increase included H0宝龙04 and various 万科 bonds, with the highest increase being 3.72% for 22万科02 [4] - Conversely, the top five non-financial credit bonds by decrease included H0中骏02 and 25鄂交K1, with the largest drop being 4.83% for 25鄂交K1 [4] Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 337.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan for the day [5] - Overnight SHIBOR rose to 1.4420%, while the 7-day SHIBOR increased to 1.5420% [5] Interbank Repo Rates - Interbank repo rates saw an overall increase, with FR001 rising by 15 basis points to 1.54% and FR007 increasing by 17 basis points to 1.65% [5][6]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 337.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The total amount of bids matched the operation amount, with 337.3 billion yuan being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index futures are expected to return to an upward trend. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. The strategy is to choose the right time to go long on the stock index [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Interest Rates and Bonds - The closing price of DROO1 was 1.32, up 0.08bp; DR007 was 1.43, down 0.60bp; GC001 was 1.45, down 4.00bp; GC007 was 1.51, up 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M was 1.59, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year was 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond was 1.48, down 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury bond was 1.59, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond was 1.84, up 0.95bp; 10 - year US treasury bond was 3.98, up 2.70bp [3]. - The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 253.8 billion, 91 billion, 43.5 billion, 236 billion, and 164.8 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [3][4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4606, up 0.3%; IF current - month contract was 4594, up 0.4%; SSE 50 was 3027, up 0.56%; IH current - month contract was 3025, up 0.7%; CSI 500 was 7143, up 0.2%; IC current - month contract was 7091, up 0.4%; CSI 1000 was 7308, down 0.06%; IM current - month contract was 7249, up 0.2% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. The trading volume of IF was 128,274, up 32.3%; open interest was 264,665, up 6.2%. The trading volume of IH was 60,316, up 28.1%; open interest was 94,029, up 6.3%. The trading volume of IC was 145,145, up 32.9%; open interest was 254,337, up 7.6%. The trading volume of IM was 260,447, up 42.8%; open interest was 375,481, up 99% [5]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.6439 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 23.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, energy metals, culture and media, shipping ports, chemical fiber, and diversified finance sectors leading the gains, while construction machinery, mining, non - metallic materials, and biological products sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.48%, 3.55%, 2.81%, and 2.97% respectively. The basis rates of IH current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.96%, 0.66%, 0.17%, and 0.33% respectively. The basis rates of IC current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.08%, 9.23%, 9.20%, and 9.47% respectively. The basis rates of IM current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.21%, 11.31%, 11.51%, and 11.70% respectively [7].

Core Points - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous rates [1] - A total of 236 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan by the central bank [1]

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - Henan Province successfully issued government bonds totaling 478.3414 billion yuan, including 294.1451 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 46.9677 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds, primarily for repaying maturing bonds [1] - The newly issued special bonds amount to 137.2286 billion yuan, allocated to various projects including urban development, social services, and infrastructure [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On October 20, government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.37% and the 10-year main contract down 0.14% [2] - The yields on major interbank rate bonds increased, with the 10-year national development bond yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 1.918% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1,890 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan for the day [3] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points while the 7-day and 14-day rates increased [3] Group 4: Regional Investment Projects - Zhengzhou plans to add 15 urban renewal projects with a total investment of 47.65 billion yuan, as announced by the city's Urban Construction Bureau [4] Group 5: Corporate Bond Issuance - Henan Guohong Financing Leasing plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in asset-backed securities (ABS) with a management fee rate of 0.08% [6] - Hebi Investment Group intends to issue 650 million yuan in medium-term notes with a subscription range of 2.20% to 3.50% [8] - Henan Transportation Investment Group completed the issuance of 1.5 billion yuan in renewable corporate bonds at a rate of 2.30% [9] - Xinzheng Investment Group completed the issuance of 1.2 billion yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.49% [10] - Anyang Steel received approval for the registration of 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds [11] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Outlook - CITIC Securities stated that the current risk of rising bond yields is limited, and the bond market's recovery trend is expected to continue [17] - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the overall environment for the bond market in the fourth quarter is slightly better than in the third quarter, with expectations of fluctuating market conditions [18]

10月20日，据央行网站消息，央行今日开展1890亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持 平。因今日有2538亿元逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼648亿元。 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 236 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, indicating flexibility and proactivity in monetary policy to maintain market liquidity stability [1] Group 2: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Iceland renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 3.5 billion yuan/70 billion Icelandic króna, effective for five years, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and trade facilitation [2] Group 3: A-Share Insurance Sector Performance - The A-share insurance sector saw significant gains, with China Life rising over 5% and China Pacific Insurance over 2%, reflecting investor confidence driven by policy support, increased consumer demand, and industry innovation [3] Group 4: US Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" reported that tariffs have contributed to rising prices across all Federal Reserve districts, with increased input costs being passed on to consumers by some manufacturing and retail companies [4] Group 5: Global Public Debt Warning - The International Monetary Fund warned that global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029, potentially reaching 123% in extreme scenarios, highlighting the need for countries to optimize spending and enhance fiscal resilience [5]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 236 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor remaining stable at 1.3160%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.4190%, and the 14-day Shibor decreasing by 0.90 basis points to 1.4430% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates saw slight increases, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 10.6%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 0.0 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 both rose by 0.6 basis points [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 increased by 188 billion yuan and 102.8 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 saw a decrease of 139 million yuan, and R007's transaction volume increased by 247.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with major banks lending well. The overnight pledged repo rates were reported at 1.28% to 1.43%, while 7-day pledged repo rates were around 1.45% to 1.47% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on October 16, there were 110 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 152.78 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, issuers are actively raising prices, leading to a lively trading atmosphere. The secondary market showed moderate trading sentiment, with overall yields slightly increasing [10] - The 1-month national bank stock ended at approximately 1.51%, while the 3-month and 6-month national bank stocks saw slight declines and increases, respectively, with the 1-year national bank stock yielding between 1.6675% and 1.6725% [10] Banking Sector Developments - Recent leadership changes were reported in several branches of the Bank of China, including the appointment of new branch heads in Henan, Shanghai, and Jiangxi provinces [12] - Jilin Bank's registered capital increased from approximately 13.14 billion yuan to about 13.81 billion yuan, alongside changes in several senior management positions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 2,360 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a maturity of 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40% on October 16 [1] Group 1 - The central bank's operation aims to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] - The reverse repurchase operation is a tool used by the central bank to inject liquidity into the market [1] - The interest rate of 1.40% reflects the current monetary policy stance of the central bank [1]