Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 15, with a fixed rate and a total of 130.9 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was also 130.9 billion yuan. On the same day, 122.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 8.6 billion yuan [1]. Market Liquidity - The interbank market maintained a loose liquidity environment, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly decreasing. The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained around 1.25%, but supply showed a significant contraction. Non-bank institutions' pledging of credit bonds for overnight funding was quoted at around 1.45% [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, showing little change from the previous day [7]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed declines: the 30-year main contract fell by 0.99%, the 10-year by 0.12%, the 5-year by 0.03%, the 2-year by 0.01% [12]. Economic Performance - In November, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month. The service production index rose by 4.2% year-on-year. However, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 1.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.42%. From January to November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, while investment excluding real estate development increased by 0.8%. Real estate development investment fell by 15.9%, and the sales area of new commercial housing dropped by 7.8% [13]. Technological Advancements - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercial application in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [13]. Global Trade Developments - India is nearing a "framework" agreement with the U.S. but has not provided a timeline. The country is also negotiating with Mexico regarding tariff increases, which could impact approximately 2 billion USD in exports. In November, India's trade deficit was 24.53 billion USD, better than the expected 32 billion USD, driven by exports in engineering, electronics, and gems [16].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.444 | 105.785 | 105.790 | 107.980 | 108.000 | 112.59 | 112.75 | | | 涨跌 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.200 | 0.190 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the current day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend of short - term gains and long - term losses. The 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year main contracts rose slightly, while the 30 - year contract declined against the trend. The capital situation remained loose, but the central bank net - withdrew 13.4 billion yuan on the day. Coupled with the supply - demand pressure of ultra - long bonds and differences in policy expectations, the adjustment pressure on long - term varieties increased. The trading volume of the main contracts was concentrated in the next - quarter contracts (2603 contracts), and the trading volume of the 30 - year contract reached 126.7 billion yuan, ranking first, indicating a high degree of participation of trading funds in long - term fluctuations [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On the current day, the contract with the largest open interest among all contracts was the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, with an open interest of 233,603 lots. The report also presented detailed market data of various Treasury bond futures contracts, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, trading amount, open interest, change in open interest, settlement price, and price changes [5] 2. Spot Market - On December 3, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan of funds on the day [6] 3. Related News - In the technical analysis of the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K - line showed a positive K - line with a long lower shadow on the current day. It was currently trading below the 20 - day moving average, with an intraday high of 108.060 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to show a death cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than that of the previous day [7]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122.3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 8, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan after 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities saw a slight increase, with overnight Shibor rising by 0.10 basis points to 1.3020%, 7-day Shibor increasing by 1.00 basis points to 1.4260%, and 14-day Shibor up by 0.90 basis points to 1.5170% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates experienced slight increases, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates rising by 0.2 basis points and remaining stable at 1.3022% and 1.3718%, respectively. Transaction volumes decreased by 149.6 billion yuan and 47.7 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 increased by 0.8 basis points and decreased by 0.2 basis points, settling at 1.4459% and 1.494%, with transaction volumes increasing by 10.2 billion yuan and 39.2 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - The funding environment on December 8 was balanced, with overnight transactions around 1.48% and 7-day transactions in the range of 1.49%-1.50%. Cross-year funding transactions were noted at around 1.62% for pledged rates and 1.67%-1.68% for credit transactions [6] - By the end of the day, the overnight funding transaction rates had slightly decreased to around 1.40% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' related businesses by the National Financial Regulatory Administration has brought incremental funds to the A - share market and boosted market sentiment. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during market adjustments and leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - Last week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. With 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day term repurchase operations. This week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with daily maturities of 107.6 billion yuan, 156.3 billion yuan, 79.3 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 139.8 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [2][3]. - Interest rate changes: DR001 closed at 1.30 with a 0.06 - basis - point increase; DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.04 - basis - point increase; GC001 at 1.45 with a 25 - basis - point increase; GC007 at 1.51 with a 2 - basis - point increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.40 with a 0.5 - basis - point decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63 with a 1.39 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 2.34 - basis - point decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.14 with a 3 - basis - point increase [3]. Stock Index and Market Performance - Index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4585, up 0.84%; SSE 50 at 3002, up 0.93%; CSI 500 at 7098, up 1.21%; CSI 1000 at 7342, up 1.29%. Futures contracts: IF current - month at 4574, up 1.0%; IH current - month at 2997, up 1.0%; IC current - month at 7083, up 1.4%; IM current - month at 7320, up 1.5% [4]. - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF trading volume was 124,819, up 34.8%, and open interest was 277,131, up 5.8%; IH trading volume was 56,681, up 44.3%, and open interest was 99,128, up 13.2%; IC trading volume was 131,971, up 32.2%, and open interest was 260,378, up 6.6%; IM trading volume was 220,452, up 28.1%, and open interest was 376,973, up 5.5% [4]. - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (- 3.9%), real estate (- 2.2%), food and beverage (- 1.9%), computer (- 1.7%), and textile and apparel (- 1.6%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1701.6 billion yuan, 1467.1 billion yuan, 1546.5 billion yuan, 1419.2 billion yuan, and 1567.8 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 24.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4]. Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates: 3.97% for the current - month contract, 5.48% for the current - quarter contract, 3.77% for the next - quarter contract, and 6.73% for the next - month contract; IH premium/discount rates: 3.47% for the current - month contract, 1.65% for the current - quarter contract, 1.72% for the next - quarter contract, and 4.67% for the next - month contract; IC premium/discount rates: 6.27% (not fully clear from the text); IM premium/discount rates: 12.72% for the current - month contract, 12.35% for the current - quarter contract, 9.40% for the next - quarter contract, and 12.41% for the next - month contract [5].

Stock Market - The A-share market indices rose during the week from December 1 to December 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.26%, the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, and the Xinhua 500 Index by 1.25% [1] - The Xinhua 500 Index opened at 5001.85 points and closed at 5050.16 points, with a weekly fluctuation of 1.82% and a total trading volume of 2.62 trillion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, defense and military industry, machinery equipment, and non-bank financials saw significant gains, while media, real estate, beauty care, food and beverage, and computer sectors experienced declines [3] Commodity Market - Precious metals maintained high volatility, with spot gold nearing $4260 per ounce before declining, resulting in a weekly drop of 0.5%. COMEX gold futures closed at $4227.7 per ounce, down 0.64% for the week [6] - Spot silver reached a record high of $59.3 per ounce due to supply shortages and soaring industrial demand, with COMEX silver futures rising by 2.86% to $58.8 per ounce [6] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 98.98, while the euro, pound, and Australian dollar appreciated against the dollar. The euro rose by 0.37%, the pound by 0.77%, and the Japanese yen increased by 0.53% due to heightened expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [8] Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 5 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced plans to strengthen differentiated regulation for quality institutions while tightening oversight on problematic brokers [9] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration lowered risk factors for several insurance company business lines, including those related to the CSI 300 Index and the STAR Market [9] Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be a key focus next week, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut following recent weak employment data [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading day, with the T2603 contract falling 0.34% and its holding volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China also varied, with the 10Y treasury bond yield rising 3.02bp to 1.87%. Overseas, the 10Y treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan showed different changes. The market was affected by multiple factors such as central bank operations, economic data, and policy expectations, leading to the weakening of long - term treasury bond futures prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day saw the closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 decline, with decreases of -0.05%, -0.07%, -0.24%, -0.24%, -0.34%, -0.37%, -1.02%, and -1.03% respectively. The holding volumes of TS2603, TS2606, and TL2603, TL2606 increased by 1814, 176, 894, and 1454 respectively, while those of TF2603, TF2606, and T2603 decreased by 1606, 68, and 7127 respectively. The trading volumes of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 41390, 554, 99144, 1549, 148085, 6564, 224953, and 16855 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TS2603 - TS2606, TF2603 - TF2606, T2603 - T2606, and TL2603 - TL2606 were -0.020, -0.015, -0.025, and -0.160 respectively, with the previous values being -0.036, -0.0150, -0.0500, and -0.1700 respectively [2] - **CTD Bond IRR**: The IRR of the active CTD bonds of each contract were 1.4156, -0.273, 0.9011, -0.8605, 1.2604, 1.2037, 1.1353, and 2.1208 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: In the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.2bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.15bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y treasury bonds were 1.42, 1.41, 1.41, 1.65, 1.77, 1.87, 2.30, and 2.28 respectively, with changes of 0.04, 0.47, -0.21, 3.22, 4.22, 3.02, 6, and 5.85bp respectively. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 36.94bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: In the previous trading day, the yields of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y US treasury bonds were 3.52, 3.68, 4.11, and 4.76 respectively, with increases of 3.0, 6.0, 5.0, and 3.0bp respectively; the yields of 2Y and 10Y German treasury bonds were 2.050 and 2.840 respectively, with an increase of 1.0bp and 0.0bp respectively; the yields of 2Y and 10Y Japanese treasury bonds were 1.016 and 1.897 respectively, with increases of 1.1 and 3.3bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On December 4, the central bank conducted 180.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 356.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank will conduct 100 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, which will achieve an equal - amount offset. It is expected that the central bank will conduct a 6 - month outright operation in December and is likely to increase the volume for roll - over [3] - **Economic Data**: The OECD estimated that the global economic growth in 2025 is 3.2% (unchanged from the previous estimate), and raised the estimate of China's economic growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5.0%. Deutsche Bank Research raised the forecast of China's GDP year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.6% and the full - year growth rate forecast to 5.0%. In November, the number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 49,000, a 7 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 20%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities was 519,000, a year - on - year increase of about 5%, breaking through the 510,000 mark for the first time in four years. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022 [3] Market Comment and Strategy - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond increased to 1.857%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the open - market treasury bond trading in November had a net injection of 5 billion yuan. Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased, and the market capital was relatively stable. The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, the ADP employment data showed a decrease in private - sector jobs, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest - rate hike, causing the yen to appreciate significantly and raising concerns about global liquidity tightening. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2% from the previous month, indicating overall stable economic sentiment. However, the decline in commercial housing sales continued to expand, and second - hand housing prices continued to fall month - on - month. The bond extension of Vanke impacted the credit bond market. With the approaching of the year - end important meetings, the expectation of policy introduction increased, and the implementation of the new regulations on fund sales would also disrupt the bond market, leading to the weakening of long - term treasury bond futures prices [3]

12 TF2512 T2603 2 现货市场 所有合约中最多。 图表 2：国债期货行情表 | 合约代码 | 今开启 | 酷影视 | 智能投 | 成交星 | 成交金额 | 持仓屋 | 持仓变化 | 之收拾 | 令程原 | 前结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.422 | 102.45 | 102.316 | 2,184 | 447,339.38 | 1,551 | 10 | 102.416 | 102.414 | 102.41 | 0.006 | 0.004 | | TS2603 | 102.42 | 102.428 | 102.388 | 29,140 | 5,968,384.26 | 62,248 | -224 | 102.388 | 102.394 | 102.41 | -0.022 | -0.016 | | TS2606 | 102,444 | 102.456 | 102,428 | 197 | 40,362.47 | ...

人民财讯12月4日电，央行公开市场开展1808亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a weakening bullish trend in hot-rolled coil (热卷) commodities, with over 50 stock indices ceasing tracking [2][3] - The quantitative indicators for hot-rolled coil show a trend score of 1.15, with a market valuation of 1.02, historical low volatility at 32.39, and a turnover rate of 0.27 [4] - The supply of hot-rolled coil is at a weekly production of 3.19 million tons, which is higher than the same period in previous years, with total inventory at 4.01 million tons, significantly above historical levels [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 156.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, achieving a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [7] - As of December 2, two steel mills have announced winter storage policies [8] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide increased by 1.5715 million tons to 15.91569 million tons compared to the previous week [9] Group 3 - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a fluctuating market with bullish emotions, showing a trend degree of 24% for bullish and 6% for bearish [20] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases include BR rubber at 3.99%, pulp at 2.62%, and silver at 2.46% [21] - The top three commodities with the largest increase in positions are asphalt with 14,100 contracts, lithium carbonate with 8,606 contracts, and silicon iron with 8,382 contracts [21]