国债期货日报 | 2025-06-13 政策呵护延续，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

中国央行今日开展2025亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率持平于1.40%。今日1350亿元逆回购到期。本 周，中国央行进行8582亿元逆回购操作，因本周有9309亿元逆回购到期，本周实现净回笼727亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference regarding the 2025 Multinational Corporation Leaders Summit in Qingdao, with officials from the Ministry of Commerce and Shandong Province providing details [2] - The China Securities Index Company announced adjustments to the sample stocks of various indices including the CSI 300 and CSI 500, with the changes to take effect after market close on June 13 [3] - A total of 20 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked today, amounting to 832 million shares with a total market value of 17.498 billion yuan, with significant unlocks from companies like Shen Sanda A and Xiamen Tungsten [3] Group 2 - Sixteen companies disclosed progress on stock repurchase plans, with seven companies announcing new repurchase proposals and one company having its plan approved by shareholders [4] - Among the newly disclosed repurchase plans, five companies have proposed amounts exceeding 10 million yuan, with the highest being Zhongtai Securities at 500 million yuan [5] - The People's Bank of China has a 135 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation maturing today, with an operation rate of 1.40% [6]

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-10 政策呵护延续，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

今日看点 经济观察网讯6月10日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、国新办将举行进一步保障和改善民生有关政策情况新闻发布会 2、2025年中国网络文明大会将举行 6月10日至11日，2025年中国网络文明大会将举行。结合网络文明建设重点领域、民众关心的热点问 题，分论坛将设置"智慧赋能文明培育""体育文化""弘扬优良家风 培育时代新人"等多个话题，通过思想 碰撞、经验交流，推动网站平台、网络媒体、社会组织及广大网民积极投身网络文明建设，共同营造文 明有序的网络环境。 3、第二届"一带一路"科技交流大会将举行 5、18家公司披露回购进展 6月10日，18家公司共发布21个股票回购相关进展。其中，6家公司首次披露股票回购预案，2家公司披 露股票回购实施进展，11家公司回购方案已实施完毕。 从首次披露回购预案来看，若羽臣、杰克股份、万安科技回购预案金额最高，分别拟回购不超2.0亿 元、1.5亿元、4000.0万元。从回购实施进展来看，公牛集团、江瀚新材分别回购1967.12万元、265.38万 元。从已完成回购来看，海亮股份、中炬高新、徐工机械已完成回购金额最高，分别回购5.0亿元、 5834.78万元、164 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 ——利率债周报（2025.6.2-2025.6.8） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周（6 月 2 日当 周）海外关税政策不确定性延续，为债市提供支撑。同时，尽 管大量同业存单陆续到期，但央行首次提前公告买断式逆回购 操作，加之首次披露月度各项工具流动性投放情况，释放加强 预期管理信号，市场资金宽松预期进一步强化，对债市产生利 多影响。在此背景下，上周长债收益率整体下行。短端利率方 面，月初资金面均衡偏松，带动债市短端利率下行，且下行幅 度大于长端，收益率曲线趋于陡峭化。 本周（6 月 9 日当周）债市料延续偏强震荡。从基本面来看， 本周将陆续公布5月通胀、贸易以及金融数据。其中，5月CPI 和 PPI 同比仍处负值区间，反应居民消费信心不足，内需整体 疲弱，同时，受海外关税政策反复影响，外需整体走弱， 5 月 出口增速有所放缓，基本面对债市影响将偏利多。从资金面来 看，尽管本周逆回购与存单到期规模较大，但央行提前开展 1 万亿买断式逆回购操作予以对冲，释放"呵护"信号，资金面 有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The central bank's 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation is expected to stabilize the funding environment, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [11][12] - The report highlights a decrease in bill rates, with 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates at 0.97%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively, indicating a downward trend [11][18] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 10,023.7 billion yuan, representing 11.5% of the total market [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Observations - The central bank has conducted a 9,309 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 6,717 billion yuan [12] - The upcoming month will see 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, which may impact liquidity [12][32] Section 2: Bills - The cumulative net purchase of bills by state-owned banks reached 1,191.69 billion yuan, up from 1,113 billion yuan year-on-year [11][18] Section 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank's operations include a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo starting June 6, 2025, aimed at maintaining liquidity [12][32] Section 4: Fiscal Policy - Government bond net financing for the week was 1,101.28 billion yuan, with expectations of a net repayment of approximately 587.10 billion yuan in the next period [14] Section 5: Certificates of Deposit - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 5,850 billion yuan, with a net financing of -816 billion yuan [14][15] Section 6: Commercial Bank Financing - The total bond issuance by commercial banks was 5,940 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of -726 billion yuan [16] Section 7: Interbank Lending - The cumulative net lending among banks in June 2025 was 4,518 billion yuan, which is lower than seasonal expectations [16] Section 8: Deposit Rates - The report tracks the adjustment of deposit rates across 74 banks, indicating a rapid pace of rate reductions [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the liquidity situation tends to ease. The central bank uses various short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient level of mid - year liquidity [5] - The macro news was calm yesterday, and the stock index continued to rise moderately. The market sentiment was boosted by the rumor of a phone call between Chinese and US leaders. Domestic factors have limited driving force for the stock index, and overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. The stock index has reached the upper limit of the shock range, and further upward movement requires incremental positive news and increased trading volume. It is recommended to wait and see in futures index operations and be cautious about chasing up [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - DRO01 closed at 1.41, down 0.10 bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, down 0.41 bp; GC001 closed at 1.40, down 9.00 bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, down 3.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00 bp; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.44, down 1.75 bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.52, down 0.85 bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.68, up 0.40 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.37, down 9.00 bp [4] - The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 266 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 139.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6026 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 291.1 billion yuan maturing on Friday [4][5] Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.23% to 3877.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.05% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.54% to 5770, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.72% to 6167. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with TMT sectors leading the gains and some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 69,770, down 0.1%; IF open interest was 231,414, up 0.9%; IH volume was 38,082, up 19.4%; IH open interest was 81,351, up 3.2%; IC volume was 64,999, up 11.9%; IC open interest was 211,733, up 2.6%; IM volume was 180,384, up 19.1%; IM open interest was 329,492, up 4.4% [6] - IF basis for the current - month contract was 16.04%, next - month contract 14.09%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 6.64%; IH basis for the current - month contract was 16.39%, next - month contract 15.49%, current - quarter contract 6.95%, next - quarter contract 3.86%; IC basis for the current - month contract was 19.55%, next - month contract 17.41%, current - quarter contract 14.28%, next - quarter contract 11.91%; IM basis for the current - month contract was 25.81%, next - month contract 21.78%, current - quarter contract 18.20%, next - quarter contract 15.30% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Treasury bond futures shows a weak and volatile pattern, with most yields rising, reflecting the adjustment sentiment after the market's positive factors are exhausted. The short - term interest bonds declined briefly due to the central bank's continuous net injection and loose liquidity before the end of the month. However, concerns about the weakening of allocation demand increased, and long - term yields stopped falling and rebounded. The market's optimistic sentiment was boosted by the US International Trade Court's "halt" of multiple tariff measures by the Trump administration, which increased global risk appetite and suppressed the demand for hedging, causing the yields of interest - rate bonds to rise from mid - week to the weekend, and Treasury bond futures to decline under pressure. Subsequently, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals approved the temporary resumption of the halted tariff policies, leading to a collective rise in Treasury bonds and Treasury bond futures. Overall, short - term wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and policy signals [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.40% month - on - month change and a - 2.70% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 424.00 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.25%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.00% (+14.29%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+1.02%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.74, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 (-0.08%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1806, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.013 (-0.18%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 (-0.58%); DR007 was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-0.26%); R007 was 1.76, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 (-10.82%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.66, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 (-1.48%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (-1.48%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.43 yuan, 106.03 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.31 yuan respectively. The fluctuations of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.04%, 0.02%, - 0.01%, and - 0.16% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.107 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, and 0.134 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On 2025 - 06 - 05, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 126.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - **Money Market Repurchase Rates**: The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.408%, 1.534%, 1.591%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data in figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, etc., but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [35]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TS main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures about the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TF main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers figures on the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the T main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [63]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures including the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis spread trends of the TL main contract in the past three years, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text [72]. 4. Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].