Core Viewpoint - The current research value of the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products in China is 2.13%, and if it remains below 2.25% in the next quarter, a reduction in the predetermined interest rate is expected, leading to increased premiums for critical illness insurance and decreased returns for long-term savings insurance products [1][2]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Impact - The current predetermined interest rate research value of 2.13% is 37 basis points lower than the upper limit of 2.5% [2]. - If the predetermined interest rate research value remains below 2.25% next quarter, it will trigger a mechanism to lower the maximum predetermined interest rate for new products [2]. - Analysts predict that if the predetermined interest rate is adjusted to 2.25%, it may further drop to 2% in the fourth quarter due to ongoing low interest rates [2]. Group 2: Critical Illness Insurance - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate will significantly impact long-term insurance premiums, particularly for critical illness insurance [3]. - It is anticipated that premiums for children's critical illness insurance will increase more than those for adults due to longer insurance periods and greater compounding effects [3]. - The product structure for critical illness insurance may evolve to either simplify coverage to lower premiums or offer a combination of mandatory and optional coverage for consumer choice [3]. Group 3: Savings Insurance - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate will also affect the returns on long-term savings insurance products such as increasing death benefit life insurance and annuities [4]. - A case study shows that for a certain increasing death benefit life insurance product, a drop in the predetermined interest rate from 2.5% to 2.0% results in a significant decrease in cash value over time, with losses of over 48,000 yuan after 40 years for a 1 million yuan premium [5]. - Analysts believe that the competitiveness of traditional insurance products will decline, highlighting the sales potential of participating insurance products [5]. Group 4: Participating Insurance - While the guaranteed returns of participating insurance will decrease with the drop in predetermined interest rates, the actual returns may not necessarily follow suit [6]. - Insurance companies may increase investments in equity assets to potentially generate higher returns for policyholders, despite the risk of zero dividends in extreme cases [6]. - Consumers are advised to review historical dividend performance and consult professional insurance advisors for optimal product selection [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The insurance sector's performance in Q1 2025 showed a mixed growth pattern, with total net profit for the five major listed insurance companies reaching 842 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights significant disparities in profit growth among major insurers, with China Life and PICC showing strong growth rates of 40% and 43% respectively, while Ping An and Taikang experienced declines of 26% and 18% [2]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in investment performance in Q2 due to expected interest rate declines, despite pressures from bond market fluctuations [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 1.68%, underperforming the broader market by 1.24 percentage points, with individual stock performances varying significantly [1]. - Notable stock performances included AIA (+5.54%) and Taiping (+2.09%), while major declines were seen in Xinhua (-2.71%) and Taikang (-3.15%) [1]. Q1 Financial Overview - The Q1 2025 results showed a diverse growth rate in net profit among listed insurers, with PICC at 128 billion yuan (+43%), China Life at 288 billion yuan (+40%), and Xinhua at 59 billion yuan (+19%) [2]. - The report notes that the net asset value changes varied, with China Life increasing by 4.5% and Xinhua decreasing by 17% [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the upcoming Q2 may present investment opportunities due to expected interest rate declines and potential recovery in stock valuations following recent market corrections [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies indicate a favorable investment landscape, with recommendations for PICC, China Life, and Xinhua based on their valuations [9].

投资建议：维持公司强烈推荐评级。公司NBV 和保费快速增长、投资稳健推动利润双位数增长；在报 行合一推进、预定利率下调等贡献下NBV 有望保持在当前增速水平，同时公司24 年末权益配置占比显 著高于同业，市场回暖下利润增速或继续提升。预计25-27 年公司归母净利润301.8、331.7、360.6 亿 元，增速分别为+15.1%、+9.9%、+8.7%；NBV（新假设）分别为80.1、90.1、97.1 亿元，增速为 +28.1%、+12.4%、+7.8%，当前股价对应25-27E 的P/EV 倍数为0.53/0.49/0.46 倍。 风险提示：权益市场波动、分红险销售难度加大、队伍转型不及预期。 个银渠道期交同比翻倍，推动NBV 大幅增长。1Q25 公司期交保费收入194.7亿元 /yoy+117.3%，其中个 险/银保渠道期交保费规模分别118.9 亿元/74.2 亿元，yoy+133.4% /+94.5%，各渠道增长较快预计因公司 丰富产品供给、个险绩优队伍建设成效显著、银保合作网点拓宽等。但预计个险和银保NBVM 有所分 化，1Q25 银保趸交保费76.4 亿元 /yoy+324.5%，占新单比重达 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance's Q1 2025 performance slightly missed expectations, with a year-on-year decline in net profit primarily due to interest rate fluctuations and market volatility [1] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 9.63 billion, down 18.1% year-on-year; the new business value (NBV) was 5.78 billion, up 39% year-on-year [1] - The net asset value decreased by 9.5% compared to the beginning of the year, influenced by changes in discount rates and interest rates [1] - The company's total investment income showed a non-annualized net return of 0.8% and a total investment return of 1.0%, remaining stable year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The growth rate of premium income varied across channels, with significant contributions from bancassurance, which saw a 130.7% increase in new single premium income [2] - The number of agents remained stable at 188,000, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating effective recruitment and retention strategies [2] - The property and casualty insurance segment continued to grow, with premium income up 1.0% year-on-year, and the combined ratio (COR) improved to 97.4%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Investment Insights - The company's investment scale exceeded 2.81 trillion, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year, with a focus on high-dividend assets contributing to the growth of equity investments [3] - The total investment return is under pressure due to fluctuations in bond and stock valuations, but the company expects to smooth out market volatility through increased OCI [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong recommendation rating, anticipating steady growth in NBV and underwriting profits, despite short-term investment pressures [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 49.8 billion, 54.5 billion, and 59.0 billion, with growth rates of 10.8%, 9.3%, and 8.2% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The insurance industry saw a positive growth in premium income, with total original premium income reaching 21,745 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [8][6]. - Life insurance premiums decreased by 1.0% year-on-year but showed a month-on-month increase of 2.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline [8][6]. - Property insurance premiums increased by 4.2% year-on-year, driven primarily by non-auto insurance segments [8][6]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 37.84 trillion yuan by the end of March 2025, a 5.4% increase from the previous year [8][6]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among listed companies, with New China Life and China Pacific Insurance achieving positive premium growth, while Ping An experienced a decline in new orders [8][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance industry achieved a total original premium income of 21,745 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with life insurance contributing 13,832 billion yuan and property insurance contributing 3,867 billion yuan [8][6]. - The overall premium growth turned positive, primarily due to the narrowing decline in life insurance [8][6]. Life Insurance Companies - Life insurance companies reported original premium income of 16,590 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [8][6]. - The decline in life insurance premiums is narrowing, with a month-on-month positive growth trend observed [8][6]. Property Insurance Companies - Property insurance companies recorded original premium income of 5,155 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [8][6]. - The growth in property insurance is mainly attributed to non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance and liability insurance showing significant increases [8][6]. Asset Changes - As of March 2025, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 37.84 trillion yuan, with a net asset increase of 6% year-on-year [8][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall underwriting profitability of the industry is improving, with expectations of continued growth in property insurance premiums [8][6].

Market Overview - On April 22, 2025, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.25% to close at 3299.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36% to 9870.05 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.82% to 1928.43 points. The total trading volume in both markets was 1.0898 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 48.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]. Sector Performance - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with core broad indices showing more declines than gains. The China Securities Dividend Index, Dividend Index, and FTSE China A50 led the gains, while the Growth Enterprise Market, ChiNext 50, and ChiNext Index were among the biggest losers [2]. - In terms of sector performance, the retail trade, building materials, and transportation sectors saw gains, while media, telecommunications, and computer sectors experienced declines [2]. Industry Highlights - The retail trade sector rose by 1.0% today, with a 2.1% increase over the past five days, but a decline of 2.4% year-to-date. Key investment themes include traditional retail adapting to consumer trends, high-quality gold and jewelry brands, and domestic beauty brands focusing on high-growth segments [5]. - The building materials sector also increased by 1.0%, with a 1.6% rise over the past five days and a 1.4% increase year-to-date [3]. - The transportation sector saw a 0.9% rise today, with a 1.1% increase over the past five days, but a decline of 4.2% year-to-date [3]. Concept Themes - Notable concept themes included significant gains in supply and marketing cooperatives (3.9%), cross-border payment (3.6%), and glyphosate (3.6%). Conversely, themes such as humanoid robots and NVIDIA concepts saw declines [4].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【非银】3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%——《人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025 年一季度例会》点评 3Q25传统险预定利率或再次下调至2.0%，分红险等浮动收益型产品将更具发展土壤。未来随着险企浮动收益 型产品占比逐渐提升，负债成本的压力缓释及投资风险的有效分散将有助于险企进一步提高权益配置比例，加 大入市力度；同时，新金融工具准则下险企亦将通过高股息策略系统性提升OCI股票占比，降低利润波动的同 时增加确定性分红收入，以弥补票息收入的减少。 （王一峰/黄怡婷） 2025- 04-21 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【三友化工（600409.SH）】纯碱、PVC景气下行Q4业绩同比承压下滑 ...