#图文打卡计划# 尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 你有没有注意到，最近黄金的价格像过山车一样飙升，接着却又一夜之间被打下了几层楼？别急，不是我说的，连花旗银行的分析师都预测，黄金将迎来暴 跌。你没听错，暴跌。 花旗银行的分析师们给出的预言是，未来几个季度黄金价格可能会从目前的高位一路下滑，跌破3000美元/盎司，甚至在2026年下半年，黄金的价格可能会 跌到2500至2700美元/盎司这个区间。听到这个消息，很多人可能会心里一凉，心想：这不是梦吗？那黄金这么高的价格，怎么这么突然就要掉下来？ 看，今天的黄金价格可还在这里，敦金的价格是3386.14美元/盎司，纽约金3405.00美元/盎司。和预测的最低价格相比，差距确实有点大。要是像花旗所说 的那样，黄金能跌到2500美元/盎司，对那些准备 买黄金的人来说，简直是个福音！想象一下，原本买黄金可能还得动辄几千美金的开支，现在却能低价入 手，实在是太爽了！ 别以为这只是一个遥远的买黄金大便宜的梦。在这波价格下跌的背后，可能是一些我们平时看不见的因素在推动。这几年，黄金的价格一直高企，主要是因 为全球 ...

中东冲突升级的危险，犹如达摩克利斯之剑，高悬全球资本市场之上。 1 中东危险压顶 隔夜，美国总统特朗普最新发声进一步加剧局势失控的风险，其警告伊朗——美国耐心在耗尽，称已知道伊朗领导人哈梅内伊的下落，但"我们不会干掉 他"，呼吁伊方"无条件投降"。 这引发市场新猜测，难道美国要亲自下场？ 受此影响，全球股市全线下挫，美股三大指数收跌，欧洲股市跌至近一个月最低，原油一度飙涨5%。 最新消息称："今晚，将会发生一件大事！"。 中东局势持续升级的云波诡谲时刻，居然有人看空黄金！ 金价将在未来几个季度滑落至3000美元，明年下半年跌至2500-2700美元？？？ 也就是说，以现在3383的点位来看，金价未来要下跌20%以上。 在当前全世界众志成城看多黄金的背景下，高盛甚至看好明年中期冲击4000美元，花旗银行突然搞这一出，着实是惊人。 这究竟是为何？ 花旗在分析报告中预测，黄金价格将在今年三季度后回落至3000美元/盎司以下，明年下半年到2500-2700美元/盎司。 对于这则消息，市场看起来并不以为意，伦敦金价甚至红翻绿，截至发稿，伦敦金现小幅下跌0.06%，报3385.18。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that over 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began in 2019, and an increase of 17 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The survey collected responses from 73 central banks, the highest participation rate to date, with nearly 43% planning to increase their gold reserves in the coming year [1] - Central banks' primary motivations for holding gold include its long-term value storage function (80%), portfolio diversification (81%), and performance during crises (85%) [1] Group 2 - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices may fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally, with a peak expected between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 of this year [3] - By the second half of 2026, gold prices are anticipated to decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce, representing a decrease of approximately 20% to 25% from current forward prices [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions are providing short-term support for gold prices, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference [4] - Long-term factors influencing gold prices include the global dollar-based credit monetary system, economic de-globalization, central bank de-dollarization, and inflation outlook, suggesting potential for further price increases within the year [4]

在该银行所设定的基本情景中(这种情景出现的概率为 60%)，预计未来一个季度黄金价格将维持在每盎 司 3000 美元以上，随后会有所下跌。目前现货黄金的价格约为 3396 美元。 在对其他金属的展望中，花旗银行表示对铝和铜都持极度乐观的态度。分析师们称，这种轻质金属"与 全球经济增长和市场情绪的回暖高度相关"。 智通财经APP获悉，据花旗称，由于创纪录的涨势逐渐消退，黄金价格预计在未来几个季度将回落至每 盎司 3000 美元以下。包括Max Layton在内的分析师在一份报告中表示："我们的研究显示，到 2026 年 下半年，黄金价格将回落至每盎司 2500 至 2700 美元。"他们称，金价下跌可能是由于投资需求减弱、 全球经济增长前景改善以及美联储的降息举措所致。 今年黄金价格已上涨 30%，在 4 月份曾创下历史新高。由于美国总统特朗普破坏性的贸易政策以及中 东地区的危机刺激了避险需求，黄金价格持续攀升。此外，对美国财政赤字和资产的担忧，以及各大央 行为实现储备多元化而持续的购买行为，也支撑了黄金价格的上涨。 花旗分析师们表示："我们预计，到 2025 年末和 2026 年，对黄金的投资需求将会减少，因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trends in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on upcoming developments [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 785.78 CNY per gram, down 1.37% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3418.9 USD per ounce, up 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: The market anticipates the Fed to maintain interest rates, but investors are keen on future policy signals, particularly regarding rate cuts. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while an emphasis on inflation risks could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran have previously driven gold prices up. However, Iran's willingness to restart nuclear negotiations has eased market fears, limiting further gold price increases. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks continue to provide support for gold as tensions may escalate again [2][3]. - Market Profit-Taking: On June 16, gold prices fell over 1% as traders locked in profits after reaching an 8-week high. Without new safe-haven demand, gold prices may continue to consolidate [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price movements are highly dependent on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. A clear signal of rate cuts could lead to a rise in gold prices, while the opposite could exert downward pressure [3]. - Although current geopolitical tensions have eased, they remain a potential source of support for gold prices. The market is also facing profit-taking pressures, and without new positive stimuli, gold prices may remain in a consolidation phase [3]. - In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support an upward shift in gold price levels [3].

中长期来看，全球央行购金潮与美元信用体系隐忧构成黄金的战略支撑。中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，5月末储备达7383万盎司（约2296吨）；欧洲央行黄金占外汇储备比例升至20%，超越欧元成为第 二大储备资产。高盛预测，若美国债务展期压力加剧，2026年金价或突破4000美元/盎司。 分析师指出，若中东冲突外溢或美国经济数据疲软，金价可能突破3500美元关口；反之，若地缘局势缓 和或美联储释放鹰派信号，短期或回踩3400美元支撑位。市场需重点关注6月17日美国密歇根消费者信 心指数及6月下旬非农数据，这些因素或成为金价下一步走势的关键风向标。 美联储货币政策转向预期亦为黄金提供支撑。6月FOMC会议虽维持利率不变，但删除"通胀向2%目标 取得进展"的表述，鲍威尔强调"依赖数据调整政策"。市场押注美联储年内将降息两次（6月、12月）， 美元指数跌至97.8的4月以来低点，削弱了黄金的持有成本。此外，美国5月PPI同比增速降至2.6%，核 心PPI同比3.0%，创2024年8月以来新低，企业端通胀压力缓解强化了宽松预期。 技术面显示黄金短期动能强劲。伦敦金周线级别形成"上升旗形"形态，理论目标指向3500-3550美 ...

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/16 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。SC 原油涨超 6%，棕榈油涨超 3%，豆油涨超 2%， 菜油、焦煤、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱、20 号胶、 乙二醇（EG）跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 3452.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.17%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.21%报 36.37 美元/盎司，周涨 0.64%。 3. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约涨 7.55%报 73.18 美元/桶，周涨 13.32%； 布油主力合约涨 7.5%报 74.56 美元/桶，周涨 12.17%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.56%报 9647.5 美元/吨，周跌 0.47%；LME 期锌跌 0.61%报 2626.5 美元/吨，周跌 1.48%。 5. 国际农产品多数上涨，美大豆涨 2.52%，美玉米涨 1.43%，美豆油涨 6.30%， 美豆粕跌 1.09%，美小麦涨 3 ...

中东火药桶引爆金市，黄金飞升至3440美元后，能否再次迈向3500美元？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]