证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital renminbi is gradually changing payment habits and is backed by national credit, reflecting a deep consideration for the modernization of the financial system [1][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of Digital Renminbi - Digital renminbi is fundamentally different from third-party payment tools like Alipay and WeChat Pay, as it falls under the M0 category, meaning it is cash in circulation and must be accepted by all entities [3]. - It features a "dual-layer operation" architecture, allowing the central bank to manage it through commercial banks, ensuring centralized control while leveraging market vitality [3]. - The digital renminbi offers several advantages, including payment convenience with "dual offline payment" capabilities, privacy protection through a "controllable anonymity" principle, and low transaction costs without extra fees for interbank or cross-region transactions [3]. Group 2: Implications for Financial Inclusion - The promotion of digital renminbi is significant for financial inclusion, providing easier access to financial services for remote residents and the elderly [5]. - It enables innovative applications such as directed payments and conditional payments through smart contracts, showcasing unique value in areas like fiscal subsidies and consumption vouchers [5]. - The acceptance of digital renminbi is increasing, with major banks launching digital renminbi wallets and improving merchant acceptance environments [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The development of digital renminbi is expected to be gradual, complementing existing payment tools rather than replacing them, contributing to a diversified payment system [5]. - As technology matures and application scenarios expand, digital renminbi is anticipated to play a larger role in promoting financial innovation, enhancing payment efficiency, and ensuring financial security [5]. - Users are encouraged to try digital renminbi to experience the benefits of digital finance [5].

Group 1 - The global financial landscape is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency coexistence model [19][22] - The U.S. is adopting a "retrenchment and control" strategy, focusing on domestic issues while managing external influences through financial means [3][10] - China's gold reserves have increased to 74.12 million ounces, reflecting a trend to reduce reliance on the dollar and enhance risk management capabilities [5][12] Group 2 - Russia has issued sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, signaling a shift in financing channels from USD and EUR to RMB, which enhances the latter's status [7][12] - The use of RMB in commodity trading and sovereign financing is increasing, indicating a gradual erosion of the dollar's monopoly [14][17] - The effectiveness of U.S. financial sanctions is diminishing, prompting countries to seek alternative options to avoid dependency on the dollar [15][20] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB faces challenges, including the need for improved supply of risk-free assets and greater market transparency [15][17] - The transition to a multi-currency system is seen as an irreversible trend, providing countries with more options and reducing risks associated with dollar dependency [10][19] - The current geopolitical landscape suggests that there are no absolute winners, only participants who continuously adjust their strategies [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a year, driven by several key factors including reduced tariff pressures and expectations of US interest rate cuts [2][4][11]. Group 1: Factors Driving Yuan Appreciation - The reduction in tariff pressures, particularly after the US agreed to cancel a 10% tariff, has eased export burdens for China [6]. - China has committed to purchasing significant amounts of US soybeans, which has positively influenced trade relations and currency strength [6]. - The expectation of US interest rate cuts, driven by a weaker job market and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, is contributing to the yuan's strength [11]. Group 2: Impact on Exports and Manufacturing - Concerns about yuan appreciation negatively affecting exports are mitigated by the fact that modern manufacturing competitiveness relies more on comprehensive cost structures rather than just labor costs [13][15]. - Companies like Apple and Tesla are less affected by labor cost fluctuations due to their reliance on China's unique supply chain capabilities [17]. - As long as the yuan does not experience extreme volatility, the overall export situation remains stable, supported by China's manufacturing advantages [19]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The appreciation of the yuan provides the People's Bank of China with more room to lower interest rates without fearing capital outflows, as the currency is gaining strength [21][22]. - The need for economic stimulus is highlighted by a manufacturing PMI below the neutral level, indicating that rate cuts could support economic recovery [24]. Group 4: Varied Effects of Yuan Strength - The impact of yuan appreciation varies among different stakeholders; exporters may face short-term pressures, but can mitigate risks through financial instruments like forward contracts [26]. - For individuals traveling or studying abroad, a stronger yuan translates to lower costs for currency exchange, enhancing purchasing power [29]. - The long-term trend suggests increasing global acceptance of the yuan, reflecting China's growing economic strength and influence [31].

Core Insights - The Southern Finance Forum 2025 Annual Conference emphasizes the theme "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surges, China's Asset Revaluation" [1] - Standard Chartered Bank's CEO for the Greater Bay Area, Li Haiqiang, discusses the trends and challenges faced by Chinese enterprises going global, highlighting the importance of financial innovation in supporting these efforts [1][2] Group 1: Trends in Chinese Enterprises Going Global - Chinese enterprises are increasingly pursuing internationalization as a necessary path for large companies and a survival strategy for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - The trend of Chinese companies going global has evolved from "going out" to "integrating in," indicating a deeper commitment to local markets [1] - The "new three items" have become significant forces in the global supply chain, with many Chinese companies emerging as industry leaders [1] Group 2: Financial Challenges and Innovations - Chinese enterprises face challenges in cross-border finance, including capital management, financing, supply chain coordination, currency settlement, and exchange rate risks [2] - Standard Chartered Bank has established a new economy business team to provide comprehensive services to support these enterprises since 2016, exemplified by its partnership with autonomous driving leader Pony.ai [2] - The bank has also innovated in cross-border RMB business to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Support - Standard Chartered Bank is investing in technology-driven financial innovation, including artificial intelligence and digital assets, and is establishing an AI research center in Guangzhou [3] - The bank has formed strategic partnerships with leading Chinese tech companies to better support Chinese enterprises going global [3] - The Greater Bay Area is positioned as a vibrant cross-border financial ecosystem, leveraging its geographical advantages and technological strengths to provide efficient global financial support [3] Group 4: Role of Standard Chartered Bank - As an international bank with over 160 years of experience in the Greater Bay Area, Standard Chartered Bank aims to act as a "super connector" between the region and the world, facilitating cross-border financial innovation [4]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion by the end of November 2025, marking a slight increase of $3 billion from the end of October, with a growth rate of 0.09% [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7,412 million ounces, adding 30,000 ounces in November, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [1][5] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, supported by stable economic performance and macroeconomic factors [3][4] - The increase in reserves is attributed to fluctuations in asset prices and cross-border capital flows, reflecting the resilience of China's international balance of payments [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the stable foreign exchange reserves provide crucial support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and act as a buffer against external shocks [4] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves highlights a strategic shift towards diversifying reserve assets and reducing reliance on single sovereign credit currencies, particularly the US dollar [5][6] - The accumulation of gold is seen as a response to global geopolitical uncertainties and a strategy to enhance the long-term credibility of RMB assets [5][6] - The global trend of central banks purchasing gold continues, with a significant increase in demand noted in October, which may support rising international gold prices [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the People's Bank of China will continue to increase its gold reserves as part of a broader strategy to optimize international reserves and support RMB internationalization [8] - Forecasts for gold prices suggest a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by expectations of monetary easing and shifts in global credit dynamics [8]

Core Insights - Russia officially issued state bonds denominated in RMB on December 2, marking a significant financial event in Sino-Russian relations and a rare fissure in the dollar-dominated financial system [1][3] Group 1: Reasons for the Shift - The timing of this decision is clear: Russia has been excluded from the dollar system and is now reliant on the RMB due to sanctions imposed by the US and Europe following the Ukraine conflict, which included freezing foreign exchange and banning dollar settlements [3] - The international acceptance of the ruble has sharply declined, while the euro is also becoming increasingly difficult to use, leaving the RMB as the only major currency available for global transactions without US interference [3] Group 2: Financial Dynamics - Russia has accumulated a significant amount of RMB as it sells more commodities to China than it buys, leading to a situation where Chinese funds are becoming a crucial pillar of Russia's national finances, previously dominated by the dollar [5] - During Putin's visit to India on December 4, a key agenda was to promote the use of RMB for purchasing Russian energy, indicating a trend towards RMB becoming a regional energy currency [7] Group 3: Global Implications - The world is surprised not only by Russia's actions but also by China's willingness to embrace this shift, as there is a growing need for a second currency option amid the visible issues with the dollar, such as high deficits and frequent sanctions [8] - China is not provoking but is steadily making the RMB more usable, with an increasing number of countries borrowing in RMB, more energy transactions being settled in RMB, and more central banks holding RMB assets, indicating a real establishment of a parallel financial system [8] - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by Russia signals that the dollar system is facing competition that could replace some of its functions, particularly in key areas like energy, trade, and debt [8]

Core Viewpoint - China is increasing its gold reserves while reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds, signaling a shift in its financial strategy amidst global economic uncertainties and the declining credibility of the US dollar [3][10][25]. Group 1: China's Gold Reserves - On December 7, the People's Bank of China announced its latest gold reserve data, revealing a total of approximately 21,013 tons, marking 13 consecutive months of increases [6][10]. - The continuous accumulation of gold is seen as a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and enhance financial security, especially as the US faces a debt crisis [10][12]. - China's gold purchases are occurring despite rising international gold prices, indicating a commitment to strengthening its financial position [10][12]. Group 2: US Debt and Financial Stability - The US national debt surpassed $38 trillion in October, with interest payments nearing 20% of the federal budget, raising concerns about the safety of US Treasury bonds [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have failed to restore market confidence, further damaging the dollar's credibility [8][14]. - There is widespread speculation that Trump's upcoming visit to China may involve requests for China to support US debt, but China's actions suggest a reluctance to comply [8][25]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating a decline in its dominance [14][20]. - Emerging economies, including India and Saudi Arabia, are increasingly diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, with significant increases in gold repatriation and local currency settlements [14][16]. - The trend towards de-dollarization is evident as countries seek to establish a multi-polar financial system, reducing reliance on the US dollar [20][23]. Group 4: China's Financial Strategy - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, with significant increases in the use of the currency for trade settlements, particularly in commodities like iron ore and oil [18][20]. - The growth of China's gold reserves is part of a broader strategy to enhance its influence in global finance and provide a financial safety net for neighboring countries [20][27]. - The recent surge in demand for Chinese sovereign bonds, with a subscription rate of 30 times for a $4 billion issuance, reflects growing confidence in China's financial stability compared to the US [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, indicating a potential shift towards a stronger currency era for China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has created a favorable environment for the RMB, as recent US employment data has shown a weaker job market, increasing speculation about future rate reductions [3]. - Potential new leadership at the Federal Reserve advocating for monetary easing could lower the federal funds rate from 3.75-4% to below 3%, which would further weaken the US dollar and allow for appreciation of non-USD currencies [3]. Group 2: Internal Factors - The improvement in trade relations, particularly the easing of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, has significantly alleviated export pressures, especially following a new trade agreement reached in late October [5]. - The People's Bank of China has strategically reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds and ensured sufficient dollar reserves for corporate settlement needs, while domestic companies continue to repatriate earnings from overseas operations, addressing foreign exchange concerns [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted substantial foreign capital inflows, increasing demand for the RMB. The central bank's guidance through the midpoint rate and corporate currency settlement practices have amplified the appreciation momentum [7]. - The competitive landscape of manufacturing has shifted from solely relying on labor cost advantages to a focus on comprehensive cost advantages, which China excels at, thereby reducing concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports [9]. Group 4: Export Trends - China's export structure is evolving, with a significant increase in high-value products such as electric vehicles and industrial robots, leading to a reduced sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations [11]. - The transition from low-cost goods to high-end manufacturing enhances China's bargaining power in global supply chains, further solidifying the RMB's position [11][14]. Group 5: Long-term Support for RMB - The long-term strength of the RMB is supported by China's unique industrial independence, allowing it to avoid reliance on external supplies in most sectors, which is rare globally [13]. - As domestic consumption and industrial upgrades progress, the RMB's global demand is expected to rise, particularly if cross-border transactions increasingly utilize the RMB, thereby enhancing its international recognition [16].

文/ 商务部部长 王文涛 1 2月8日，商务部部长王文涛在《人民日报》发布《扩大高水平对外开放 （学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》文章表示，党的二十届四中全会 通 过 的 《 中 共 中 央 关 于 制 定 国 民 经 济 和 社 会 发 展 第 十 五 个 五 年 规 划 的 建 议》（以下简称《建议》），强调"扩大高水平对外开放，开创合作共赢 新局面"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央着眼以中国式现代化全面推 进 强 国 建 设 、 民 族 复 兴 伟 业 ， 统 筹 国 内 国 际 两 个 大 局 作 出 的 重 大 战 略 部 署，为"十五五"时期扩大高水平对外开放提供了根本遵循和行动指南。文 章提到，有序推进人民币国际化，提升资本项目开放水平，建设自主可控 的人民币跨境支付体系。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》），强调"扩大高水平对 外开放，开创合作共赢新局面"。这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央着眼以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，统筹国内国际两 个大局作出的重大战略部署，为"十五五"时期扩大高水平对外开放提供了根本遵 ...