美元霸权的黄昏：一场自掘坟墓的金融围剿 旧秩序的崩塌并非悄无声息，而是以美国议员们煞有介事地抛出"禁止中国使用美元结算"提案为标志，宣告着美元霸权的衰落。中文互联网上 刷屏的"还有这好事？"，并非简单的戏谑，而是洞悉了美国此举实则为其金融霸权敲响丧钟的精妙之处。这并非什么金融核弹，而是一根自毁 的引信。 所谓的《停止中俄法案》，其"两板斧"——冻结资产和踢出SWIFT——暴露出致命的战略盲区。首先，冻结中国近万亿美元的美债，将引发华 尔街金融巨鳄的恐慌，动摇全球资本对美元市场的信心，引发美元信誉的雪崩式崩塌。其次，将中国踢出SWIFT，反而加速了人民币的崛起。 中国自主研发的CIPS系统已覆盖42个国家，支撑着全球40%的贸易量，而数字人民币更是打通了东盟和中东的支付通道，交易成本降低了 50%，这无疑将大量客户推向人民币的怀抱。 去美元化的浪潮早已势不可挡，中国早已做好了准备。在能源结算方面，中俄贸易99.6%采用本币结算，沙特和伊朗也积极推动人民币石油通 道建设。在技术层面，数字人民币跨境清算效率显著提升，绕开了SWIFT的监控网络，构建了独立的支付体系。在国际合作层面，金砖国家不 断扩容，新兴市场国家积 ...

Group 1 - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the relationship between stablecoins and the dominance of the US dollar, suggesting that the rise of stablecoins in cross-border payments could structurally impact the international monetary system and potentially weaken the dollar's hegemony [1][2] - The establishment of dollar hegemony dates back to the Bretton Woods system, where the US dollar became the primary reserve currency due to the US's post-World War II economic strength and its commitment to provide public goods to the international community [2] - The "Nixon Shock" in 1971 marked a turning point where the US detached the dollar from gold, relying on the SWIFT system's network effects and international governance to maintain its monetary dominance, despite a decline in its economic power [2] Group 2 - Following the passage of stablecoin legislation in the US Senate, there were criticisms that such measures could harm dollar hegemony, while US Treasury Secretary argued that stablecoins would enhance it [3] - The traditional monetary phase showcased the clear dominance of the dollar and the SWIFT system in cross-border payments, but the emergence of stablecoins and blockchain technology poses challenges to this established dominance [3][9] - The SWIFT system, with over 11,000 financial institutions connected, has significant network effects that make it difficult to replace, but the current phase of stablecoins may disrupt this advantage [3] Group 3 - Countries like Russia and Iran have sought alternatives to the SWIFT system, particularly in response to US sanctions, leading to the development of their own cross-border payment systems [4][5] - Russia's SPFS and Iran's SEPAM systems were created to mitigate the impact of financial sanctions and enhance financial security, with both countries actively working to connect their systems for improved trade and banking cooperation [6] - The CIPS system in China represents a different approach, focusing on developing infrastructure to support the internationalization of the renminbi and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [7] Group 4 - The stablecoin phase is characterized by a diverse development landscape, where the US does not hold a central position, and the SWIFT system is not the sole player, leading to potential challenges to its hegemonic status [8] - Projects like the mBridge initiative, involving multiple central banks, aim to create efficient and low-cost cross-border payment systems using central bank digital currencies, indicating a rapid evolution in this space [8] - Overall, while the dollar and SWIFT maintain their dominance in the traditional monetary phase, the stablecoin phase may weaken the US's digital currency hegemony due to diminishing network effects [9]

Market Overview - On July 7, stablecoins, cross-border payments, and RWA-related concepts saw significant gains, with Jin Yi Culture achieving a three-day consecutive rise, Xinyada also rising consecutively, and Qingdao Jinwang hitting the daily limit. Other companies like Huafeng Superfiber and Hangzhou Garden also experienced increases exceeding 10% [1]. Stock Performance - Jin Yi Culture (002721.SZ) latest price: 4.42, up 9.95%, market cap: 11.754 billion [2] - Xinyada (600571.SS) latest price: 20.39, up 9.98%, market cap: 9.334 billion [2] - Jingbeifang (002987.SZ) latest price: 25.63, up 10.00%, market cap: 21.617 billion [2] - Qindao Jinwang (002094.SZ) latest price: 9.25, up 9.99%, market cap: 6.387 billion [2] - Huafeng Superfiber (300180.SZ) latest price: 10.29, up 15.49%, market cap: 15.287 billion [2] Events - On July 4, the People's Bank of China released a notice soliciting opinions on the draft rules for the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS), aiming to optimize the system's functions and services [3]. - Hainan Huatie has completed the digitalization of nearly 26 billion yuan in assets and signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the RWA Research Institute [3]. - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will take effect in August, with the Financial Secretary indicating that the Monetary Authority is consulting the market on the implementation guidelines [3]. Institutional Insights - The central bank's proposed revisions to the CIPS rules aim to lower entry barriers and simplify transaction procedures, which will help promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [4]. - The official launch of the Hong Kong FRS license in August 2025 is expected to accelerate the global settlement of USDC/PYUSD and the growth of on-chain money market funds [4]. - With Hong Kong leading the pilot projects, the integration of data rights and on-chain credit in mainland China is expected to make RWA a key component of the national strategy for "digital-physical integration" [4].

Important Market News - The Ministry of Finance has decided to implement measures regarding the procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, effective from July 6, 2025. For procurement budgets exceeding 45 million RMB, EU enterprises (excluding those with investments in China) will be excluded from participation, and non-EU enterprises' imports from the EU cannot exceed 50% of the total contract amount [1] Industry Insights - The People's Bank of China has released a draft for public consultation on the rules for the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which aims to standardize account management, business processing, and risk management. As of May 2025, CIPS had 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants, processing a total of 175 trillion RMB in cross-border payments in 2024, a 43% increase year-on-year. The updated rules are expected to enhance the efficiency of cross-border RMB payment settlements and promote investment opportunities in cross-border payment service providers and related financial IT service companies [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has optimized its leadership structure for general aviation and low-altitude economy, establishing a new working group to focus on development planning, aircraft airworthiness certification, and market regulation. The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion RMB by 2025 and 3.5 trillion RMB by 2035, driven by policy support and infrastructure development. Investment opportunities are seen in companies involved in low-altitude applications such as tourism, emergency services, and logistics [3] - Beijing has introduced its first special policy for the 6G industry, aiming to leverage its advantages in research and technology to support the development of 6G standards and core product research. The 6G industry is expected to enter a commercial phase post-2029, with significant impacts anticipated across various sectors. Investment opportunities are emerging in companies involved in 6G technology development [4] Company Announcements - Tax Friend Co. announced that its controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 12.2 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [5] - Camel Group Co. reported that its vice president intends to reduce his holdings by up to 8.7 million shares, or 0.74% of the total share capital [5] - Hezhong Intelligent announced that a shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 4.9 million shares, or 1% of the total share capital [5] - Electric Light Technology disclosed plans for its controlling shareholder to reduce its stake by up to 9.5 million shares, or 2.62% of the total share capital [5] - Guosheng Zhike announced that its employee stock ownership platform plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3.7 million shares, or 2.8% of the total share capital [5] - Huahua Co. reported plans for its controlling shareholder to reduce its stake by up to 1.99 million shares, or 1% of the total share capital, and another shareholder to reduce by up to 3.98 million shares, or 2% of the total share capital [6] - Hengshuo Co. announced plans for two shareholders to reduce their stakes by up to 1.66% and 1.34% of the total share capital, respectively [6] - Jianglong Boat announced plans for its controlling shareholder and board members to reduce their stakes by up to 1% and 1.63% of the total share capital, respectively [6] - Zhongxin Fluorine Material announced plans for a shareholder to reduce its stake by up to 6.5 million shares, or 2.01% of the total share capital, along with plans from board members to reduce their holdings by a combined 3.86% [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Financial Expo opened in Shanghai with the theme "Open Innovation, Technology Empowerment, Co-creating a New Future for Finance," highlighting the industry's focus on financial technology development [1] - The expo attracted nearly 300 domestic and foreign institutions, covering an exhibition area of over 50,000 square meters, marking the largest scale and widest range in its history [1] - A digital finance development forum was held concurrently, featuring 18 cutting-edge topics, including global financial development and technology innovation, and the digital transformation of regional financial institutions [1] Group 2 - The focus of the opening ceremony was on the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which signed agreements with six foreign institutions, including Standard Bank and Abu Dhabi First Bank [1] - CIPS announced the global launch of the Renminbi international letter of credit business, with participation from major Chinese banks and foreign banks like Standard Chartered and HSBC [1] - As of May 2025, the CIPS system had 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants, covering over 4,900 legal banking institutions in 187 countries and regions, supporting the digital transformation of cross-border settlement and trade finance for the Renminbi [2]

Group 1: Events and Summits - The BRICS summit is scheduled to take place from July 6 to 7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, as announced by the BRICS countries' news department [1] - The second China-Central Asia Summit will be held in June 2025 in Astana, Kazakhstan, following the first summit in Xi'an in May 2023, which marked a significant milestone in China-Central Asia relations [1] - The cooperation between China and Central Asian countries focuses on enhancing trade, transportation connectivity, and various sectors including agriculture and emergency management [1] Group 2: Payment Systems - BRICS countries are developing a digital payment platform named BRICS Pay, aimed at facilitating local currency settlements and financial transactions [2] - The BRICS Pay system is a decentralized multilateral cross-border payment system initiated by the BRICS Business Council in 2018, expected to be launched at the BRICS summit in October 2024 [2] - The introduction of BRICS Pay could deepen financial cooperation among member countries and accelerate the internationalization of the Chinese yuan [2] Group 3: Historical Performance - The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, encouraging more banks to join the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to support global trade and investment [3] Group 4: Related Stocks - A list of stocks potentially benefiting from the internationalization of the yuan has been compiled, including companies in cross-border trade and payment sectors [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of Japan's currency internationalization and contrasts it with China's current approach, highlighting the paradox of government-led initiatives versus corporate reluctance [2] - China's currency internationalization is now intertwined with real trade, digital infrastructure, and cultural exchanges, creating a multidimensional narrative rather than a mere financial tool [2] - The CIPS system, established in 2015, has integrated 1,667 banks, representing a shift towards an independent financial ecosystem outside of SWIFT, reflecting a proactive strategy in response to global financial dynamics [3] Group 2 - The decline in the proportion of U.S. dollar assets in China's foreign exchange reserves is a strategic adjustment aligned with the "dual circulation" strategy, showcasing a deliberate and thoughtful approach rather than a reactionary stance [3] - The expansion of digital RMB trials from Shenzhen to free trade zones signifies not only technological advancement but also a cultural awakening in the realm of currency for a historically rich civilization [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between financial technology and cultural consciousness in reshaping the international financial system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upgrade of the CIPS system marks a significant advancement in the financial management capabilities of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, enhancing their cross-border fund management and operational efficiency [1][4]. Group 1: CIPS System Implementation - The CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System) has been identified as a key solution for the challenges faced by SOEs in managing funds across multiple bank accounts [2]. - The successful launch of the "CIPS cross-bank account centralized visibility" feature allows SOEs to directly access subsidiary financial information, significantly improving fund utilization efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The "2.0" version of the SOE treasury service has upgraded the frequency of cross-bank account queries from once a day to real-time, enabling precise monitoring of fund flows [3]. - The new system automates fund allocation, reducing reliance on manual processes and minimizing operational risks while enhancing efficiency and accuracy [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The upgrade aligns with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's (SASAC) goals for building a robust treasury information system that ensures visibility and control over all subsidiary accounts [3]. - The real-time visibility feature allows SOEs to monitor overseas subsidiary funds effectively, enhancing their ability to manage global capital efficiently [3].