美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：美联储独立性具有至关重要的作用。 ...

特朗普 20 日在社交媒体平台公开要求美联储理事莉萨・库克（Lisa Cook）辞职，起因是其被指涉嫌通 过伪造文件获取优惠房贷条件。这一指控已引发司法部关注，再度将美联储推向美国政治斗争的风口浪 尖。 此次事件并非特朗普首次向美联储施压。其任内曾多次公开批评美联储主席鲍威尔，认为其加息政策阻 碍经济增长，并一度暗示可能解雇鲍威尔，后因法律限制作罢。鲍威尔当前任期将于 2026 年 5 月结 束，特朗普近期多次在集会上表示，若重新执政将 "更换美联储领导层"。 历史数据显示，特朗普政府时期曾针对至少 6 名民主党高层发起房贷欺诈调查，最终均以证据不足告 终。分析人士指出，库克作为拜登政府任命的核心经济官员，此次被指控可能带有鲜明的政治博弈色 彩。美国进步派议员已发表联合声明，谴责这是 "对美联储独立性的政治干预"。 美联储作为美国央行，其决策独立性被视为维持经济稳定的核心支柱。此次政治人物直接要求理事辞 职，引发华尔街对央行独立性受损的担忧。20 日纽约股市金融板块下跌 1.2%，美元指数小幅波动，反 映市场对政策不确定性的谨慎态度。 特朗普在转发彭博社相关报道时直言："库克必须立刻辞职！" 此举将针对美联储 ...

据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士的话报道，美国总统特朗普近日向助手们表示，如果前总统拜登任 命的美联储理事丽莎 · 库克（ Lisa Cook ）不辞职，他就考虑将其解雇。 此前，联邦住房金融局（FHFA）负责人比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）曾指控库克涉嫌在2021年为两处 房产申请抵押贷款时提交虚假信息。这激起了特朗普的强烈反应。特朗普不仅在社交媒体上要求库克辞 职，还考虑如果她不辞职，要如何以"正当理由"解雇她。 根据普尔特在社交媒体上的指控，库克曾在2021年为其位于密歇根州和亚特兰大的两处房产申请抵 押贷款。而库克在贷款申请中将这两处房产描述为她的主要住所，以获取更优惠的贷款条件。 普尔特声称，库克在文件中做出了虚假声明，从而为她自己争取到了较低的利率、较低的首付以及 更高的贷款额度。他将把这些信息提交给司法部，进行刑事举报。 特朗普在回应普尔特的帖子中表示："库克必须马上辞职！" 但库克回应称，这笔抵押贷款发生在她加入美联储之前，自己也是在媒体上才得知普尔特的指控。 库克表示，并不打算因为一条推文就辞去职务，强调会认真对待有关她财务历史的问题，目前她正在搜 集准确的信息，以回应任何合法的质疑。 上 ...

周四(8月21日)亚市盘中，现货黄金在上一交易日大涨后略微回落，目前金价位于3344美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分 析师Valeria Bednarik撰文，对黄金技术前景进行分析。 Bednarik写道，黄金获得了上行动力，但仍受3350美元/盎司附近的卖盘限制。金价目标是攻克3350美元/盎司区域。 周三，现货黄金大幅攀升，美国彭博社分析称，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职，引发人们对美联储独立性 的新担忧，提振避险需求，黄金价格因此上涨。 现货黄金周三收盘大涨32.69美元，涨幅近1%，报3348.24美元/盎司。 北京时间周四21:45，标普全球(S&P Global)将公布美国8月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)初值，这份重量级 报告可能对金价走势产生重要影响。 经济学家预计，美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5，此前7月终值为49.8。 此外，美国8月标普全球服务业PMI初值预计为54.2，此前7月终值为55.7。 (现货黄金4小时图 来源：FXStreet) FXStreet分析师Eren Sengezer指出，7月份的服务业PMI为55.7，如果8月数据出现大幅下滑， ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded, reaching around $3,352 per ounce, with a notable increase of nearly $40 on Wednesday, closing at $3,348.20, reflecting a rise of approximately 1% [1] - The decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.13% to 98.20, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand [1] - Political pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, including calls for the resignation of Governor Cook, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which in turn benefits gold as a hedge against political risk [2] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, with only two officials supporting a rate cut, while the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, easing monetary policy, and a 30% chance of a recession in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range of $3,300 to $3,400, with short-term movements reflecting a triangular pattern, indicating potential volatility in the near term [8]

Group 1 - David Zervos, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair and Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, argues that the perception of the Federal Reserve as independent is inaccurate, stating that political pressure on the Fed has been increasing [1] - Zervos highlights that Democratic lawmakers have been pressuring monetary policymakers to lower interest rates in recent years [1] - He mentions that historically, Treasury Secretaries and the government have attempted to influence the Fed Chair behind the scenes [1] Group 2 - Zervos criticizes current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not commenting on fiscal debates during a time of increased government spending, suggesting that Powell operates from a leftist perspective [1] - He points out that the Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last September occurred less than two months before the election, which some Republicans believe aided the Democrats [1] - Zervos emphasizes that the ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet has made monetary policy more restrictive than many realize, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [2] Group 3 - Zervos defines full employment as an unemployment rate below 3.5%, which is significantly lower than the current rate of 4.2% [2] - He asserts that the Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximize employment, which is influenced by the current economic conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence is questioned by David Zervos, a potential successor to Chairman Powell, who also suggests that Powell leans politically to the left [1] Group 1 - Zervos supports President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's calls for interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve's policies are too tight [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on interest rate expectations and the potential nomination of a "shadow Fed chair" [3][4][10] - Market expectations for the next Fed chair are focused on candidates with dovish monetary policy stances, including current Fed Governor Waller and NEC Director Hassett [10][16] - The article highlights that the Federal Reserve can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, emphasizing that interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][47] Group 2 - The article suggests a shift in policy from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" as a necessary adjustment for the U.S. government to manage its debt and fiscal deficit [7][9] - It notes that the U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation resembles a "wartime state," necessitating fiscal consolidation through either economic growth or budget cuts [9][19] - The article emphasizes that sustainable fiscal consolidation can lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, with historical data indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9]

美联储主席鲍威尔的潜在继任者David Zervos表示，将美联储描述为"独立的"是不准确的，并称鲍威尔 在政治上左倾。"美联储从未独立过，对美联储的政治压力始终在加大，而且还在继续增长，"Jefferies 首席市场策略师Zervos表示。他特别指出，近年来民主党议员对货币政策制定者施压，要求他们降低利 率。Zervos称，历史上有许许多多财政部长和政府"在幕后"试图影响美联储主席的案例。（CNBC） ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]