到目前为止，市场几乎没有显示出明显迹象表明对美联储将完全放弃其独立性感到严重担忧。但投资者 仍在为一个可能充斥着异常分歧、主席权威可能减弱、以及更激进变革威胁挥之不去的美联储做准备。 以下是投资者如何评估美联储可能采取的不同路径： 对市场的威胁 分析师警告称，一个独立性较弱的美联储将对经济和市场构成重大威胁。 尽管美联储控制短期利率，但美国的借贷成本很大程度上受长期美国政府债券收益率的影响。而这些收 益率由投资者对未来短期利率的预期决定，而非当前利率水平。 如果美联储在经济仍处于良好状态时激进降息，对通胀和更高利率的担忧可能推高而非压低收益率和借 贷成本。收益率的急剧上升也可能搅动股市。 来源：金十数据 投资者正在为迎接未来一年一个可能截然不同的美联储做准备。 特朗普已示意，他即将选定下任美联储主席。他还加倍强调了其降息要求，并在最近告诉《华尔街日 报》，他希望新任领导者能支持他的议程。 不仅仅关乎主席一人 迄今为止市场反应相对平淡。原因之一是：从历史上看，美联储主席对拥有12名成员、负责投票决定利 率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）拥有巨大影响力，但他们无权独自设定利率。因此，特朗普若要获 得对央行的明确控 ...

Group 1 - The current price of paper gold is approximately 1017.24 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.13% with a trading range between 1007.33 CNY and 1019.48 CNY [1] - The market for paper gold is currently experiencing a sideways movement, indicating a lack of clear direction [1] - The price of paper gold is closely following international gold prices, which are around 4530 USD per ounce, and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve, warning that a loss of independence would lead to market repercussions [2] - There is concern in the financial community regarding the potential political interference in the Federal Reserve, especially with President Trump selecting a new chair to replace Jerome Powell [2] - Moynihan noted that while there are "excellent candidates" for the position, the public's focus on the Federal Reserve may be somewhat excessive [2]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 #海外政治 以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太上皇"的 尾部风险有多大？ ◼ 美联储史上著名的"太上皇"。埃克尔斯于 1934-1948 年任职美联储主 席，其任期始于美国大萧条时期，终于二战后的布雷顿森林体系。埃克 尔斯上任时期的货币政策导向兼具宽松与独立性。一方面，埃克尔斯上 任时美国经济仍在大萧条时期，因此其主张延续低利率政策来配合财政 宽松以刺激需求，另一方面，他认为货币与财政政策本质上是两套体系， 在任内推动通过了《银行法案(Banking Act of 1935)》，移除财政部部长 （Secretary of the Treasury）和货币总监（Comptroller of the Currency） 在美联储理事会中的席位，进一步提升美联储的独立性。二战结束后， 美国通胀压力逐步显现，埃克尔斯主张加息，但这与时任总统杜鲁门的 立场相违背。1947 年 12 月，理事兰萨姆（Ronald R. Ransom）在任上不 幸离世，而理事职位的新空缺令杜鲁门在美联储人事安排上拥有了更多 空间。因此，在埃克尔斯 1948 年主席任期结束后，杜鲁门选择麦凯布 (Thomas ...

Candidate Selection Process - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has become a focal point since the second half of 2025, with candidates undergoing multiple rounds of dynamic adjustments[1] - After Treasury Secretary Bessent withdrew in August, the candidate pool narrowed to three finalists: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current board member Christopher Waller[1] - Hassett's probability of being selected peaked at 80% due to Trump's comments, but interest shifted towards Warsh, creating a competitive landscape with Hassett slightly leading[1] Monetary Policy Positions - All three candidates support interest rate cuts, but they differ significantly in their monetary policy stances[1] - Hassett advocates for aggressive rate cuts, citing a productivity revolution driven by AI as a reason to lower rates substantially[1] - Warsh views rate cuts as a correction to past aggressive monetary experiments and emphasizes a return to traditional policies, while Waller adopts a more moderate approach, suggesting a gradual move towards neutral rates[1] Market Reactions and Implications - Trump's strategy of delaying the announcement of the candidate aims to test market reactions and minimize financial volatility, with a potential announcement now expected in early 2026[2] - The market is likely to trade on the expectation of strong rate cut signals from the candidates, which could temporarily boost U.S. stocks and lower Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar index[2] - In the medium to long term, the independence of the Federal Reserve is expected to stabilize asset prices, as new policies will need to align with core economic data rather than political demands[2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of the economy[35] - High inflation has led to increased consumer debt during the holiday season, with 37% of Americans reporting higher debt levels compared to the previous year[34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's aggressive stance towards the Federal Reserve, emphasizing his desire for control over monetary policy to boost short-term economic performance and political capital [1][4][10]. Group 1: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump has stated that anyone who disagrees with him will never become the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating a push for loyalty over independence [1][14]. - He has criticized current Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, suggesting a shift from professional decision-making to political compliance [2][5]. - The potential candidates for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, are seen as aligned with Trump's views, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's insistence on rate cuts, even in a strong economy, contradicts economic principles and risks creating instability [5][10]. - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Fed can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as the stagflation of the 1970s [7][8]. - The article warns that undermining the Fed's independence could destabilize the global financial system, as the dollar is the world's reserve currency [14][15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Public Concerns - The market is concerned about the potential disruption of monetary policy rules due to Trump's interference, which could lead to uncertainty in investment directions [10][14]. - Ordinary citizens are primarily worried about price stability and job security, fearing that political maneuvers could lead to economic bubbles and financial loss [10][15]. - Powell's firm stance on maintaining the Fed's independence is seen as a positive sign for market stability, despite Trump's pressures [14].

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve for monetary easing is driven by political motives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, potentially undermining the Fed's independence and impacting global financial stability [1][6][12] - The current economic landscape shows 62% of Americans feeling significant economic pressure, with rising living costs becoming a central election issue, prompting Trump to advocate for lower interest rates to alleviate these burdens [3][5] - Trump's strategy includes appointing allies to the Federal Reserve to influence monetary policy, with a clear path to nominate a successor to Powell who supports his easing agenda [5][8] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve, established by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, is facing unprecedented challenges due to Trump's actions, which include threats to dismiss the Fed Chair and manipulating board appointments [6][8] - Historical data indicates that during previous easing periods, such as in 2025, oil prices rose significantly, suggesting that Trump's proposed easing could boost energy demand and prices [5][10] - If monetary easing occurs, it could lead to a speculative frenzy in the stock market, exacerbating wealth inequality, while the bond market may face severe volatility due to rising inflation expectations and potential debt monetization [10][12] Group 3 - The weakening of the dollar's credibility as a global reserve currency could accelerate de-dollarization in emerging markets, while rising oil prices may alter the geopolitical dynamics among oil-exporting nations [10][12] - The potential for increased inflation and capital volatility in emerging markets could trigger debt crises and regional security issues, highlighting the broader implications of Trump's monetary policy pressures [10][12]

年度报告-黄金/白银 黄金：骐骥千里，行而不辍 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：强烈看涨 | | --- | --- | | | 白银：看涨 | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | [★Ta2b0l2e5_S年um黄m金a强ry]势上涨气势如虹 2025 年黄金全年涨幅约 70%，国际金价从 2600 美元/盎司上涨 至最高 4500 美元/盎司以上，国内黄金价格从 630 元/克上涨至 最高 1000 元/克以上。市场交易的长线逻辑仍然是美国和全球主 要经济体的财政和货币政策处于宽松周期，对等关税则强化去 美元化叙事，黄金的投资配置需求持续增长。 ★2026 年黄金牛市周期延续 贵 金 属 目前美国经济周期逆风风险尚未消退，关税的影响不容忽视， 就业市场尚未企稳，基准情况下预计美国通胀温和回升，油价 或为通胀增添不确定性。美联储仍处于降息周期，但鹰派和鸽 派分歧空前加大，降息空间和节奏博弈增加，美联储重启 RMPs 呵护流动性，但尚未开启大规模扩表。 中期选举政绩优先，特朗普政府需要延续财政扩张以维持经济 增长和股市靓丽，减税将成为关税后的重要推进事项。美国政 府债务 ...

围绕下一任美联储主席的角逐，如今正演绎成一场牵动华尔街和华盛顿神经的"选秀"大戏，其复杂程度 堪比热门电视剧。这场人事变动，不仅仅是权力的更迭，更关乎美国乃至全球经济的未来走向。 沃什则表现出对降息的积极态度，甚至被认为比哈塞特更愿意配合特朗普的需求。然而，这种"主动热 情"也引发了人们的质疑：他是否真心从经济合理性的角度出发，还是仅仅为了迎合总统的喜好？过去 几个月，他反复强调降息和缩表的观点，早已成为业内讨论的热点。 相比之下，沃勒则被认为更加理性且行事具有连贯性，尤其是在机构改革和政策逻辑方面展现出专业 性。有人认为，这种姿态更符合美联储主席应有的独立判断力。但问题在于，沃勒缺少与总统的直接联 系，这是否会成为他的致命弱点？ 最初，与特朗普总统关系密切的哈塞特一度被视为是这场竞争中的领跑者。他被认为能够配合总统的降 息意愿，似乎是顺理成章的选择。然而，局势在十二月初发生戏剧性转变。沃什凭借一次令人印象深刻 的面试，重新回到了聚光灯下，使得这场选拔再添悬念。 此后，《华尔街日报》的报道进一步揭示了这场角逐的复杂性。沃勒理事也顺利通过了特朗普的面试， 并且有迹象表明，一些黑石集团的高管在私下场合频频为候选人 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 下一任美联储主席候选人中，前美联储理事凯文·沃什与美国白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特竞争激烈，特朗普明确支持大幅降息并干预人 选选择， 202 6 年利率政策或受政治压力与经济数据双重影响。 美联储主席最终人选将于 2026 年 1 月初公布，需通过参议院确认。 特朗普对美联储下任主席的态度与干预 特朗普多次要求将美国联邦基金利率降至 1% 甚至更低，以降低国债融资成本，并称任何不同意我观点的人不会成为美联储主席，他还于 12 月 24 日重 申，下任主席在利率决策前咨询其意见。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于 2026 年 5 月 15 日 届满，美联储下一任主席究竟花落谁家，受到市场广泛关注，因为美联储的政策取向，将影响全球 流动性、大宗商品与矿业表现，以及资本市场走势。 美联储主席候选人格局 目前看来，下一任美联储主席很可能在美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文 · 哈西特和前美联储理事凯文 · 沃什之间产生。 特朗普近期曾公开表示，沃什为 " 头号候选人 " ， 12 月早些时候相关数据显示，提名概率一度飙升至 47% 。他的政策立场被称为是 " 鹰派改革者 " ，主 ...

这一系列关于美联储领导权过渡的动向，将对美元汇率产生复杂且深远的影响，其核心逻辑并非直接来 自利率政策本身，而是源于市场对美联储未来独立性和政策可信度预期的演变。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 面对持续的政治压力，美联储主席鲍威尔可能已为其2026年5月后的彻底离任铺平道路。美元可能在中 长期面临更大的政策不确定性与结构性压力。 鉴于鲍威尔对美联储独立性的承诺，外界曾怀疑他将在更换新任主席就任时打破惯例，继续留在理事 会，以保留在利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会的投票权，并帮助确保政策保持非政治性。他的主席任 期将于2026年5月届满，但其理事任期将持续至2028年1月。 但随着地区联储主席的连任，这为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）增添了些许稳定性。FOMC由理事和 地区联储主席组成，或许能让他功成身退。 日图来看，纸白银早盘价格从上一日收盘价直线拉升，价格涨超5%，继续突破新高，布林带开口，表 明目前上涨动能充足，整体走势保持强势不变，多头仍占主导地位，纸白银走势下方关注15.5-15.90支 撑，上方关注16.90-17.50阻力。 今日周五(12月26日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.659一线上方，今日开盘 ...