石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）1月4日决定，维持当前原油产量政策不变。这一决议由沙特阿拉 伯、俄罗斯等八个主要产油国在当天的线上会议中确认，意味着2026年2月和3月的原油产量将与2025年 12月及2026年1月的水平保持一致。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 此次会议召开之际，OPEC+内部正面临多重地缘政治挑战。就在会议前一天，美国宣布其军事行动抓 获了成员国委内瑞拉的总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。 根据会后声明，此次产量决定是出于季节性因素的考量，旨在维护石油市场稳定。声明还表示，相关国 家将根据市场情况灵活调整后续增产节奏。上述八个成员国——沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、阿拉伯联合酋长 国、伊拉克、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼——的原油总产量约占全球的一半。 在2025年4月至12月期间，这些国家已将原油产量目标累计上调了约每日290万桶。去年11月，它们已达 成协议，在2026年第一季度暂停进一步的增产步伐。本次会议再次确认了这一安排。 ...

记者丨林汉垚 见习记者冯紫彤 编辑丨周炎炎 美国对委内瑞拉的政治行动正成为扰动全球金融市场的新变量。 据新华社消息，美国东部时间3日晚，载有委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人的飞机抵达纽约州斯图尔特空 军国民警卫队基地。美国总统特朗普称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至该国实现"安全"过渡。 受此事件影响，市场避险情绪升温。截至1月5日13时20分，美元指数短线拉升，上涨0.26%，报 98.7196。 综合来看，美国此次举动虽为美元注入短期波动，但美元的根本走势仍将回归美国与非美经济体的增长 差、利差以及全球资本流动趋势。地缘事件更倾向于放大市场波动，而非扭转由经济和政策基本面所决 定的长期趋势。 一键追踪美国"闪击"委内瑞拉时间线： SFC 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 编辑丨金珊 21君荐读 东方证券研报指出，当前全球地缘局势仍处于升温阶段，委内瑞拉事件后，不确定性预期显著上升，全 球市场高波动性可能延续。该机构认为，此类事件可能导致美元指数短期走强，但是中期下行趋势不会 变化，市场风险偏好受到的影响短期非常有限。 这一判断与2025年末以来多家主流机构的看空观点一致。德意志银行、高盛、瑞银等机构此前对20 ...

周一(1月5日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格一度涨超2%，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4408.25美元/盎司，上涨 1.81%，最高触及4419.54美元/盎司，最低下探4331.59美元/盎司。避险情绪升温，支撑金价走强，在地 缘局势不确定性情况下，金价重获多头回补，但美元同步走高，因此金价短期向上加速的概率不大，维 持高位震荡。 美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发动军事行动，导致该国总统马杜罗被捕并被带离。行动涉及对军事基地及多 处目标的打击，造成平民伤亡，委内瑞拉随后宣布全国进入紧急状态。 据报道，莫斯科将美国1月3日的行动描述为武装入侵，并警告称此类举动将大幅加剧本已动荡地区的进 一步升级风险。俄罗斯的回应反映出其长期反对单边军事行动，特别是在拉丁美洲，莫斯科一再强调该 地区应保持为不受外部干涉的和平区域。 美国参议员迈克.李1月3日表示，随着马杜罗被捕，美军在委内瑞拉的军事动作已经结束。李在社交平 台X上发文援引国务卿马可.卢比奥的言论称，既然马杜罗已被美方羁押，后续不太可能再采取军事行 动。 与此同时，美国副国务卿克里斯托弗.兰道再度强调马杜罗将面临法律审判，这表明华盛顿的焦点可能 正从军事动作转向司法与外交程序。 ...

回顾历史，美国对委内瑞拉的干预已持续了超过二十年。从上世纪末开始，美国便不断介入这个南美国 家的政治进程。从2002年的政变风波，到2015年后对委内瑞拉的金融制裁，再到2019年支持临时总统， 几乎每一次政治动荡中都能看到美国的影子。数据显示，在最严厉的制裁期间，委内瑞拉的原油出口量 一度减少了七成以上，外汇收入大幅缩水，通货膨胀长期高企。这种压力不仅仅指向某个领导人，而是 直接影响了国家的整体经济和社会结构。 在2023年1月初，美国政坛突然爆出了一个震撼消息。特朗普在接受美国媒体连线采访时透露，委内瑞 拉总统马杜罗和他的夫人已经被美方控制，并被带上了一艘美国军舰，接下来将会被送往纽约，接受司 法程序。这一消息一出，立刻引发了全球范围的广泛关注和热议。 这个说法极具戏剧性和冲击力，不仅是外交层面的指责，更直接涉及到抓捕押送和起诉等极端行动的表 述。更让人关注的是，特朗普不断补充细节，把这次高度敏感的军事行动描述成一场全程可视的现场画 面，仿佛一切都在美国的掌控之中。从当下的国际背景来看，特朗普的表态并非偶然。委内瑞拉问题已 经困扰美国多年，涉及能源、制裁以及地缘政治，成为美国拉美政策中最复杂的一环。特朗普 ...

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普1月4日号称，美国已"掌控"委内瑞拉。 特朗普当天在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正与委内瑞拉政府打交道。"别问我现在谁掌权，因为我会给你一个答案，而 且这个答案会非常有争议。" 当记者进一步追问时，特朗普说："我的意思就是，现在由我们掌控。" 这是1月3日在委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯拍摄的空旷街头。 （图源：新华社） 特朗普还再次称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉并进行"整顿"。 一键追踪美国"闪击"委内瑞拉时间线： 来源丨新华社 编辑 | 金珊 见习编辑林芊蔚 1月3日，在委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯，一家委内瑞拉石油公司的加油站关闭。（图源：新华社） 21 悦 读 · · 智能 权 威 G D 扫码点击下载 2 1君荐读 委内瑞拉代理总统"喊话"特朗普，邀请美国制定合作议程 美国闪击全球最大石油储量国，全球油市会否变天 SFC ...

| 伦敦银现 | | | SPTAGUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 75.844 | | | +3.025 +4.15% | | IDC USD 11:05:02 | | | *** | | 学- | 75.901 | | | | 买- | 75.844 | | | | 总量 | | 现手 | | | 持仓 | | 增仓 | | | 均价 | | 开盘 | 72.755 | | 最高 | 76.358 | 最低 | 72.755 | | 涨停 | | 跌停 | | | 涨跌Close | | 涨跌幅 | | | 外盘 | | 内盤 | | | 昨收 | 72.819 | 振幅 | 4.95% | | 昨结 | 72.819 | 结算价 | | 业内人士指出，此次行情爆发的直接诱因是周末突发的地缘政治 "黑天鹅" 事件,市场对政策不确定性的担忧急剧升温，资金纷纷涌向黄金、白银等避险资 产，推动贵金属价格跳空高开。 值得关注的是，此前贵金属市场刚经历一轮剧烈调整。在 2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日当周，受芝加哥交易所连续两次上调贵金属保证金影响，投资者 获利了结 ...

本报记者 倪 浩 戈德温说："从伊拉克、阿富汗以及其他国家的政权过渡经验来看，这一过程向来充满挑战。在明确投 资条款之前，没有企业愿意承诺投入数十亿美元开展长期项目；而投资条款的确定，又必须以明确的政 府治理框架为前提。" "一切都与17.3万亿美元的石油有关"，印度《金融快报》4日以此为题报道称，根据美国能源信息署的 数据，委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，估计达3030亿桶，约占全球储量的1/5。以每桶约57 美元的油价计算，委内瑞拉的石油储量价值约17.3万亿美元。一位印度外交部门前高管对该媒体表 示："在我看来，那里的冲突与民主或进步无关，而是关于矿产和石油。" 值得注意的是，美国已是全球第一大石油生产国，为何本届美国政府仍对委内瑞拉石油如此热衷？英国 天空电视台分析称，美国开采的多为轻质原油，而其国内大部分炼油厂的设备却是为提炼重质原油设 计，若将其改造为提炼轻质原油，则需耗资数百亿美元，没有企业愿意承担这项巨额成本。 报道提到，若要保障国内成品油供应，美国就必须进口重质原油，而这一切都将问题引向了委内瑞拉， 因为该国与加拿大、俄罗斯一样，坐拥大规模的重质原油储量。 伊拉克的前车之鉴 "美国石油 ...

最高或终身监禁：马杜罗在美国受审将面临什么？｜国际识局 中新网1月5日电 "无限制权力的表达，没有什么比在深夜从首都绑架一位在任总统更直白了。"美国有 线电视新闻网(CNN)当地时间1月3日感叹道。 美军当天凌晨突袭委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇，震惊世界。 当天晚上，马杜罗抵达纽约一处拘留中心。美国纽约南区联邦地区法院网站4日发布的通知说，马杜罗 将于美国东部时间5日12时(北京时间6日1时)出庭。 美国总统特朗普当地时间1月3日在社交媒体平台上发布委内瑞拉总统马杜罗在美国军舰上戴手铐、 双眼被黑布蒙住的照片，并配文"马杜罗在美国军舰上"。 马杜罗未来命运将走向何方？ 据路透社报道，当地时间1月3日，委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子弗洛雷斯乘坐的飞机抵 达位于美国纽约的斯图尔特空军国民警卫队基地。 接下来，马杜罗将面临什么？ 美国司法部3日公布了针对马杜罗夫妇及其儿子的起诉书。CNN3日称，预计马杜罗将于下周在纽约曼 哈顿联邦法院面临毒品和武器走私指控。 根据美国司法部长邦迪的说法，马杜罗被指控犯有"毒品恐怖主义阴谋罪、可卡因走私阴谋罪、持有机 枪及破坏性装置罪，以及针对美国的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Bearish rebound [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PX/PTA**: Buy on pullback [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Close short positions [3] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously chase up [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Asphalt**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical changes in South America lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but they remain under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and attention should be paid to changes in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia, Ukraine, and South America [1][10]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support boosts LPG prices in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with a downward trend overall [1]. - **L**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply is still sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [1][21]. - **PP**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [1][25]. - **PVC**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [1][29]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It follows the cost fluctuations in the short term, and there is an expectation of maintenance in Q1 2026 [3][34]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [3][38]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [3][43]. - **Natural Gas**: The US natural gas inventory has decreased, and the gas price has rebounded, but it remains under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand - side support has declined [6][48]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation is gradually returning to normal. The cost - side oil price is weak, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in South America. The supply - demand is generally loose [6][51]. - **Glass**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [6][56]. - **Soda Ash**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [6][60]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI decreased by 0.22%, Brent decreased by 0.26%, and SC increased by 0.69% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical changes in South America may cause short - term strength in oil prices, but the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The supply is in surplus during the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On January 3, the US took military action against Venezuela, which may cause a short - term rebound in oil prices. Japan's crude oil imports in November increased by 7.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the US crude oil and refined product inventories all increased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [425 - 435] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4320, 4380, and 4510 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which boosts the gas price in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is anchored to the oil price and is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium and long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price still has room for compression. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4100 - 4200] for PG [17]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract price increased by 0.2%, and the L01 contract price decreased by 1.7%. The L05 basis was - 202 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 37 yuan/ton [19][20]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has significantly increased. The supply - demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term. In the medium and long term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold the short position of the LP05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for L [21]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract price increased by 0.4%. The PP05 basis was - 136 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Basic Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being reduced from a high level. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see. Short the MTO05 spread. Pay attention to the range of [6300 - 6450] for PP [25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract price decreased by 0.1%. The V05 basis was - 305 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 134 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 108,557 lots [27][28]. - **Basic Logic**: The thermal coal price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the industry chain has restocked. Most domestic devices are losing cash flow, and some marginal devices have started to reduce their loads [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profits on long positions. In the medium and long term, wait for the inventory to be continuously reduced and go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4900] for V [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract price was 5110 yuan/ton. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [30][31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side maintenance efforts are large, and the downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [5120 - 5250] for TA05 [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract price was 3609 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The domestic device load has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The demand is relatively good but expected to weaken [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3780 - 3880] for EG05 [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [38]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply - side pressure still exists, the demand side is slightly weakening, and the cost support is slightly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The arrival volume in December is high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The demand side is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2205 - 2265] for MA05 [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1749 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton, and the ur1 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong small - particle urea spot price has stabilized. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. The demand side is weakening recently, and the social inventory is being reduced but remains at a relatively high level [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter storage benefit is relatively limited, and the export window is still open. There is an expectation of spring fertilizer use trading. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of [1720 - 1750] for UR05 [45]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 31, the NG main contract closed at 3.686 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 7.20% month - on - month [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season, but the recent weather in the US is relatively mild, and the demand - side support for the gas price has declined. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The gas price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to the range of [3.250 - 3.680] for NG [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 31, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2950, 3090, and 2940 yuan/ton respectively [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - side crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East and South America and is under pressure in the medium and long term. The supply in January 2026 is expected to decrease, and the demand has increased slightly [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Short positions should pay attention to risk prevention. Pay attention to the range of [3000 - 3200] for BU [52]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract price remained unchanged. The FG05 basis was - 87 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 104 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 1676 lots [54][55]. - **Basic Logic**: The in - factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and there is short - term cold - repair expectation support. The supply - demand is weak, and the real estate market is in an adjustment period [56]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply reduction supports the price. Go long near the moving average. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1070 - 1120] for FG [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract price increased by 2.7%. The SA05 basis was - 58 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 64 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 4444 lots [58][59]. - **Basic Logic**: The warehouse receipts have increased, and the in - factory inventory has decreased for two consecutive times. It rebounds at a low level following the glass. The long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand support is insufficient [60]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term. In the medium and long term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1200 - 1240] for SA [60].

黄金上周五冲高4402后回落，最低触及4310，周终收于4332。周五晚间李槿公开指出关注4400关口破位情况，不破必将回落，需谨防冲高跳水风险，走势符 合预期。 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 金市沉浮几轮回，趋势为纲定盈亏 大的趋势还是多，周五只是因为获利了结引发的短暂下跌，多头并没有动摇分毫。周五公开思路4320支撑多，隔周也是大涨4420迎来大胜。上周五回撤过程 中实战分批多单布局，踩准周初反攻节奏。低点确认后，趋势多头行情正式开启，坚守的朋友本周开启趋势一路收割模式。 本周强阻4550，强撑4270-75，大区间未破前高空低多。今日可能给不到好的位置了，有回撤依然是回落多不改。首次回撤看4335区域，若意外下探进一步 关注4300和4275关键支撑。上方阻力依次关注4435、4470两大压力位，突破后可顺势看高一线。日内早盘高开高走，消息面也有推动作用，日内逢低做多为 主，有多的继续逢高减，这波时间线再次一一兑现 2026年首个交易周，行情迎来强势引爆。这场波动的直接导火索，是周末期间美国对委内瑞拉发动的闪电军事行动。地缘政治局势陡生变数，避险情绪升 温。我们周末公开指出周一会高开，行情完美符合 ...