Group 1 - The core narrative of the article highlights a significant shift in investment strategies among fund managers in response to changing market dynamics in China, leading to a departure from traditional stock selection preferences [1][4][6] - Fund managers are increasingly embracing new consumption and new economy sectors, as evidenced by the portfolio adjustments of prominent fund managers like Liu Gesong and Jiao Wei, who have shifted their focus towards Hong Kong stocks and innovative industries [2][4][6] - The rise of the innovative pharmaceutical sector in China is noted as a key driver for changing investment preferences, with many fund managers reallocating their portfolios away from traditional sectors like white liquor to embrace new economy leaders [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the evolution of fund managers' investment styles, with a notable increase in allocations to Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a broader trend of adapting to the rapid development of the market [2][3][6] - The changing perception of the Chinese stock market's attractiveness is emphasized, with fund managers recognizing the potential of new technologies and consumer brands, which has led to a re-evaluation of investment strategies [5][6] - The article also mentions the unique value proposition of the Hong Kong market, driven by international capital's reassessment of Chinese innovation capabilities, which is expected to influence future investment flows [6]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market is facing challenges with a projected decline in global high-end personal luxury goods market size by 1% to €364 billion in 2024, and further expected decline of 2%-5% in 2025 due to economic downturn and geopolitical tensions [2] - High-end brands are shifting towards a more minimalist aesthetic, reducing logo prominence and focusing on classic tailoring, which may lead to decreased brand recognition and increased homogenization [3] - The rise of functional clothing, such as sun-protective garments, reflects a growing health consciousness and outdoor lifestyle among consumers, with the Chinese apparel industry producing over 70 billion pieces annually [4] - Adult women are increasingly purchasing larger children's clothing sizes due to issues with women's sizing and pricing, indicating a demand for better fit and value in women's fashion [5] - Luxury brands are increasingly investing in film and entertainment to enhance cultural influence, with companies like Saint Laurent and LVMH establishing film production arms [6] - Emerging brands are focusing on natural fibers and traditional craftsmanship, creating unique aesthetic identities amidst a trend of logo-less luxury [8] - The new consumer giants are leveraging emotional value and community recognition to thrive in a competitive market, with brands like Labubu and Mxue Ice City gaining traction [9] - South Asian culture is becoming a source of inspiration for luxury fashion, with brands incorporating traditional craftsmanship into their collections [10] - Street retail is gaining importance as brands seek to connect with consumers through community engagement and experiential shopping [12] - High-end sports brands are taking over core shopping districts as luxury brands withdraw, with a focus on experiential retail [13] - L'Oréal's CEO emphasizes the company's diverse portfolio beyond luxury, highlighting growth in emerging markets and a commitment to innovation [14] - COS has successfully repositioned itself as a mid-range brand by balancing quality and affordability, appealing to the rational consumer [15] - Bosideng reported strong financial performance with an 11.6% revenue increase to ¥25.902 billion and a 14.3% net profit increase to ¥3.514 billion, driven by technological empowerment and supply chain optimization [16] - Nike's new Ava Rover shoe combines technology and design for urban exploration, showcasing a trend towards high-performance casual footwear [17] - Luxury brands are embracing digital transformation through KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) to enhance consumer engagement and trust [18] - Daydream launched an AI shopping assistant for personalized fashion recommendations, indicating a shift towards technology-driven retail experiences [20] - The luxury sector lost approximately 15 million customers last year, with a significant decline in sales expected in 2024, highlighting the need for brands to rebuild consumer trust [21] - Local luxury brands are gaining popularity, driven by emotional value and competitive pricing, as international brands face challenges [22] - Decathlon's new store in Nanjing adopts an innovative operational model focusing on community engagement and sustainability [24] - Shein is preparing for a potential IPO in Hong Kong, navigating geopolitical risks and supply chain transparency issues [25] - Baozun's acquisition of Sweaty Betty's China operations reflects a strategy to enhance its e-commerce portfolio amid competitive pressures in the activewear market [26] - Pop Mart's expansion into jewelry with its popop brand has generated consumer interest, though market volatility raises questions about long-term sustainability [28]

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

New Consumption Highlights - WonderLab launched a new probiotic chewing gum product, combining probiotics and postbiotics with mint and green coffee complex [2][3] - MANNER collaborated with Shanghai Pudong Art Museum to introduce a new iced Americano inspired by Van Gogh's artwork [5] - Mengniu introduced a new live bacteria yogurt ice cream, made with at least 65% fresh milk and 100% live bacteria fermentation, recently awarded a silver prize for health innovation [3][5] - PepsiCo announced a new prebiotic soda, marking the first new flavor addition in 20 years, available in original and cherry vanilla [3] - Sun Valley launched a new fried product series, including flavors like crayfish and honey onion chicken sticks [3] - Asahi Group began trial sales of a yeast-based non-dairy milk product, LIKE MILK, which is free from 28 common allergens [7] - Xueji Chaohuo partnered with Yili to launch a new yogurt product made with fresh milk from Yili's farms [7] - Fi xXBody introduced a new air-puffed rice snack available in sea salt and barbecue beef flavors, containing a mix of ten grains and seeds [7] - Lee Kum Kee launched a low-sodium soy sauce with 25% less salt content, suitable for dipping and cooking [7] Industry Events - GODIVA announced a collaboration with LABUBU to launch a new ice cream series featuring various chocolate flavors [10] - Northeast retail giant Biyoute partnered with RELEX Solutions for supply chain planning [10] - Nike announced Karina from Aespa as a new brand ambassador, emphasizing diversity and female representation [10] - Keen launched its first trail running shoe, Seek, after two years of development [10] - Italian sportswear brand Hydrogen is entering the Chinese market, set to launch in Spring/Summer 2026 [10][13] - Taiwanese matcha brand "Yuqian Shangcha" opened its first store in Shanghai, focusing on high-end matcha products [10] - PAGEONE bookstore opened its first store in Jiangsu, continuing its expansion in China [10] - Popeyes announced the opening of five new stores in Shanghai [10] - Baosheng became the general agent for DYNAFIT in China, enhancing its outdoor brand portfolio [10] Investment and Financing Trends - Yangtuo Technology Inc., a maternal and infant e-commerce platform, applied for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16] - Little Sesame, a US hummus brand, completed an $8.5 million Series A financing round [16] - Theo Health, a Scottish smart sportswear company, raised £1.2 million in funding [16] - Tianwei Food's major shareholder transferred 21.2 million shares, representing 1.99% of the company's total shares [18] - XPeng Huitian completed a $250 million Series B financing round to accelerate the development of its flying car [20] - Korean makeup brand Jungsaemmool received investment from CLSA Capital Partners, amounting to 500 million KRW (approximately 26 million RMB) [20] - Ulta Beauty is set to acquire UK beauty retailer Space NK, with the deal exceeding £300 million (approximately 2.9 billion RMB) [20] - Chanel acquired a 20% stake in Italian leather manufacturer Nuova Impala, strengthening its investment in the Italian supply chain [22] Food Industry Developments - Nongfu Spring's parent company launched "Birch Tree Juice," a 100% natural juice product sourced from high-quality birch trees [23] - Emerging health brand Ozzi introduced a natural drink aimed at controlling evening appetite [23] - if launched a limited edition jasmine rice-flavored coconut water to celebrate the 50th anniversary of China-Thailand diplomatic relations [24] - Qiaqia partnered with Taier to launch a new flavor of sunflower seeds inspired by sour fish soup [24] - UK candy brand Ruly introduced a caffeine-infused candy series [24] - Shiyan Studio launched new spicy flavors of crispy corn chips [24] - Yili's subsidiary Xu Jinhui collaborated with Haier Brothers to launch a new ice cream product [25] - Ganyuan introduced a Sam's Club exclusive freeze-dried hazelnut product [25] - Asahi launched Japan's first yeast-based milk product, LIKE MILK, with a 38% reduction in fat content [25] - Buzhu launched a new mint-flavored electrolyte water [25] Beauty Industry Updates - Chinese makeup brand Ju Duo plans to launch its first nourishing foundation line [28] - Tatcha is entering the Spanish market through Sephora [28] - Amorepacific's Ryo brand released a new scalp essence product [28] - Louis Vuitton introduced a new signature handbag, Express, in its Fall/Winter 2025 collection [28] - Aveda opened its first concept flagship store in China, located in Shanghai [32] - JD Health launched its first offline medical beauty clinic in Beijing [32] - Jaeger-LeCoultre released a new dating series watch featuring intricate floral designs [32] - Tiffany & Co. opened its largest flagship store in Asia in Tokyo [32] - Zhenyan launched a multi-dimensional protein repair system for skincare [32] - Onitsuka Tiger announced the launch of a new perfume series, marking its entry into the beauty sector [32]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong interest in new consumption trends, particularly in cosmetics and medical beauty sectors, with increased fund holdings in these areas [11][34] - The report indicates a mixed performance across sectors, with social services and retail showing varied fund allocation changes [34] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, fund holdings in social services, retail, and beauty care sectors changed by -0.15pct, -0.76pct, and +0.08pct, reaching 1.11%, 1.87%, and 0.54% respectively [4][14] - Excluding Alibaba and Meituan, the fund holdings for social services and retail were 0.61% each [4][14] Sub-industry Performance - The cosmetics sector saw a significant increase of +0.08pct in fund holdings, while tourism retail II also increased by +0.029pct [9][17] - Other sectors like hotel and restaurant services, and general retail experienced declines in fund holdings [9][17] Northbound Capital Movement - In Q2 2025, northbound capital saw a net inflow of 6.264 billion yuan into the retail sector, while the beauty care and social services sectors experienced net outflows of 0.526 billion yuan and 0.818 billion yuan respectively [10][30] - Key companies with increased foreign capital allocation included Fengshang Culture and ShouLai Hotel [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing new industrial opportunities and capitalizing on product upcycles, recommending companies such as Laopu Gold, Maogeping, and Runben [11][34] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued retail/service companies with improving fundamentals [11][34]

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative transformation of the KTV industry in China, focusing on the brand "Star Gathering" which has successfully expanded despite the industry's decline, showcasing a new entertainment model and operational efficiency [2][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - "Star Gathering" has achieved a "zero loss" record during a 14-year period of KTV closures, expanding to nearly 1,000 stores without any recorded shutdowns due to losses [4]. - The founder, known as "Star Brother," has leveraged social media, particularly Douyin, to build a significant online presence, creating over 1,000 short videos and amassing millions of followers [5]. - The brand has redefined KTV by integrating AI scoring, immersive experiences, and even dining options, positioning itself as a "youth emotional entertainment experience laboratory" rather than a traditional KTV [5]. Group 2: Entertainment Model Redesign - The article outlines a four-generation entertainment model, with "Star Gathering" representing the fourth generation, characterized by real-time interaction and a focus on emotional socializing [5][6]. - The new model emphasizes stranger interactions and a one-stop entertainment experience, moving away from traditional KTV's focus on face and identity display [5][6]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - "Star Gathering" operates smaller venues (300-800 square meters) compared to traditional KTVs (2000-3000 square meters), reducing rental costs and increasing efficiency [6][8]. - The brand has minimized labor costs by utilizing digital systems, requiring only 5-10 staff members per location, compared to the 20-30 typically needed in traditional KTVs [7][8]. - The investment return period for "Star Gathering" is 1-3 years, significantly shorter than the 3-5 years common in traditional KTVs, indicating a higher resilience to risks [8]. Group 4: Brand Philosophy and Values - The founder emphasizes a dual mission: to bring joy to customers and to enhance emotional connections among people, positioning the brand as a facilitator of memorable experiences [24]. - The company's core values are centered around "customer first" and "integrity and efficiency," which are integrated into employee performance incentives to ensure alignment with business goals [26][27]. Group 5: Talent Development and Management - The article highlights the importance of team building and training, with a focus on practical, business-oriented training that directly impacts performance [30]. - The founder categorizes potential employees into three types: "golden eggs" (high integrity and talent), "fools" (high integrity but low talent), and "bad eggs" (low integrity but high talent), advocating for a focus on the first group [31][32]. - A mentorship system is implemented to ensure new employees receive guidance and support, enhancing their integration and performance within the company [38][39].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Views - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rebound due to policy catalysts and sector rotation, with a focus on new consumer products represented by "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" and "Da Zhen" [1][17] - The upcoming reporting period for consumer goods is expected to show mixed results, with short-term adjustments in Q2 performance, but long-term growth potential remains [1][29] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Zhujiang Liquor for white liquor, and Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, and others for consumer goods [1][2][17] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has shown a positive performance with a 0.95% increase in the index from July 21 to July 25, 2025 [3][4] - Key stocks with notable increases include Tianyoude Liquor (+6.80%), Yingjia Gongjiu (+3.58%), and Zhenjiu Lidu (+3.50%) [4][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting leading brands with strong momentum and high dividend yields, suggesting that the current price decline for top liquor companies may be limited [1][17] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is undergoing a structural adjustment, but long-term opportunities remain clear, particularly for trend-aligned stocks [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as quality consumption and emotional value [2][29] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, New Dairy, and others, with a focus on those showing strong performance and potential for market share growth [2][29] Market Performance - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.69%, with frozen foods and seasoning products leading the gains [2][35] - The report notes that while some sectors like dairy products and other liquors saw declines, the overall market sentiment remains positive for consumer goods [2][35] Key Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai announced the establishment of a new subsidiary with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan [11] - Shanxi Fenjiu launched a new product, Qinghua Fenjiu 30, which has received positive market feedback [12] - Yingjia Gongjiu's new product "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" has been well-received, indicating strong consumer interest [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gu Ming, has established itself as a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea market, leveraging supply chain efficiency to drive store expansion and achieve significant revenue growth in a competitive environment [1][2]. Company Overview - Gu Ming was founded in 2010 in Zhejiang, China, and has focused on supply chain as a core driver of growth, implementing a self-distribution system in 2013 and cold chain logistics in 2017 [1]. - By 2023, the company has developed a cold storage capacity exceeding 60,000 cubic meters and operates over 300 cold chain transport vehicles, creating an industry-leading warehousing and distribution network [1]. - In 2024, Gu Ming achieved revenue of 8.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.493 billion yuan, up 5.69% year-on-year [1]. Industry Insights - The ready-to-drink tea market has surpassed a trillion yuan in scale, evolving into a new consumption arena where tea products serve as a medium for lifestyle expression among young consumers [2]. - Gu Ming holds a 9% market share in overall GMV and an 18% share in the mass market, ranking second overall and first in the mass market segment in 2023 [2]. - The company has demonstrated resilience amid industry slowdowns, with average daily GMV per store reaching 6,800 yuan in 2023 and projected to be 6,500 yuan in 2024 [2]. Competitive Advantages - Gu Ming's competitive edge lies in its comprehensive support for franchisees and deep optimization of its supply chain, allowing for store expansion without sacrificing profit margins or quality [2]. - The company boasts the largest cold chain storage and logistics infrastructure in the industry, utilizing temperature-controlled vehicles to deliver fresh ingredients to 97% of its stores every two days [2]. - With an average delivery cost of 0.9% of GMV, Gu Ming's logistics efficiency is significantly better than the industry average of 2% [2]. - The company achieved a quarterly repurchase rate of 53% in 2023, surpassing the industry average of 30%, and has launched over 100 new products in 2024, leading the industry in product innovation [2]. Future Growth Potential - Gu Ming employs a regional density strategy for store openings, targeting 500 stores per province as a key scale node, and currently holds a 25% market share in the ready-to-drink tea market across eight provinces [3]. - The company has achieved the highest market share in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi provinces, with a 45% share in the mass ready-to-drink tea market [3]. - By June 2025, Gu Ming aims to have a total of 10,403 stores across 20 provinces, with significant potential for expansion into untapped regions [3]. - The company has identified a potential store opening space of approximately 9,866 stores under a neutral assumption, with a 5-year CAGR of 15%, and up to 19,314 stores if it expands into currently unentered cities, with a 5-year CAGR of 25% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the allocation of food and beverage sectors by funds, reaching a new low since 2020, with the allocation ratio dropping from 9.8% in Q1 2025 to 8.0% in Q2 2025 [1][5][6] - Active equity funds have notably reduced their allocation to the food and beverage sector, with a decrease from 8.1% in Q1 2025 to 5.6% in Q2 2025, reflecting a 2.5 percentage point drop [1][5][6] - The decline in the food and beverage sector is attributed to the impact of the alcohol ban, which has further contracted consumption scenarios, particularly affecting traditional sectors like liquor [1][3][5] Group 2 - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in liquor has decreased from 6.57% in Q1 2025 to 3.97% in Q2 2025, a decline of 2.6 percentage points, indicating a widespread reduction in liquor holdings [2][11] - The overall market fund allocation to liquor has also fallen from 8.5% in Q1 2025 to 6.8% in Q2 2025, showing a similar trend of reduced investment in liquor [2][11] - Major liquor companies such as Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu have seen significant reductions in fund holdings, while only a few companies like Kuaijishan and Shede Liquor experienced slight increases [2][11][20] Group 3 - The investment recommendation suggests strategically positioning in the liquor sector, as the current low expectations and valuations present potential opportunities for gradual accumulation [3][25][27] - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will find a bottom in the second half of the year, with expectations of a recovery in demand as the market adjusts to the impacts of the alcohol ban [3][27] - For new consumption targets, the focus should be on companies that can leverage channel expansion opportunities and emerging product categories, with recommendations including Ximai Food and Bai Run Shares [3][28]