Group 1 - The oil and gas investment heat is rapidly rising due to multiple favorable factors in the market, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather in the US affecting supply capacity, alongside OPEC+'s decision to maintain supply restrictions [1] - Demand-side factors include the gradual construction of reserve inventories globally and the expected boost in refined oil consumption due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America anticipated to rise [1] - The US dollar index has reached a near four-year low, further supporting the rise in oil prices denominated in dollars, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between oil prices and the dollar index [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that geopolitical premiums have led to a rebound in oil prices during the off-season, with expectations for oil prices to rise in Q2 to Q3 of 2026 due to demand recovery and global reserve accumulation [1] - The Huatai Baichuan Oil and Gas ETF tracks the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes 60 fundamentally strong A-share oil and gas companies, providing investors with a convenient tool to access the overall opportunities in the A-share oil and gas sector [1]

钛媒体App 1月30日消息，瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori表示，如果是沃什当选美联储新任主席，市 场将会感受到持续的降息压力。但考虑到上次会议上FOMC的投票情况，对他而言降息并非易事。市场 误判了降息的速度，预计美联储降息的速度将比市场预期或希望的要慢。同时，市场认为沃什比哈塞特 更温和，这就是为什么我们看到美元兑日元汇率上涨。（广角观察） ...

1月30日，和讯投顾吴青宇表示，周一便提醒大家周四后需警惕黄金白银调整，如今行情如期展开回 调。接下来详细分析黄金白银与A股市场走势：黄金白银此轮上涨始于2024年9月美联储降息周期开 启，本周四凌晨美联储利率决议暂停降息后，黄金在周四晚美盘时段闪崩，印证了周一"周四前是有色 周期商品最后狂欢"的判断。地缘政治因素仅能短期影响金价，需重点关注美联储暂停降息后黄金的调 整周期——按去年12月利率决议点阵图显示，今年或仅两次降息（分别在年中与年末），且需待鲍威尔 卸任后才可能重启降息，时间节点或为五六月份。因此，本轮黄金调整大概率持续至年中，待再次降息 后或创阶段新高，但可能成为近几年大顶；若年底降息后释放2027年无降息预期，黄金将真正见顶。再 看A股市场，今日早盘虽大幅跳水，但"龙队"死守4100点关键位（盘中可破但收盘必须收复），该点位 构成心理支撑。不过，年前行情仍以震荡为主，预计呈现"涨一天跌一天"格局，有色板块回调后涨价逻 辑暂告段落，年前炒作或聚焦超跌反弹品种。年后资金大概率回流商业航天及AI相关的软硬件领域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking a pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in September 2025, during which the Fed cut rates three times [1][2]. Policy Adjustment - The Fed's decision to pause is influenced by subtle changes in economic data and the challenging balance of policy goals. The assessment of economic activity was upgraded from "moderate expansion" to "robust expansion," indicating confidence in short-term economic resilience. The job market is showing signs of stabilization, with the previous concerns about rising unemployment risks being removed [2]. Internal Disagreement - There is a notable division within the Fed regarding the decision to pause. The majority, led by Chairman Powell, advocates for a cautious approach to observe data trends, while the dissenting votes from Milan and Waller reflect a more dovish stance favoring continued support for economic growth. Waller's position is particularly significant as he is viewed as a potential future Fed chair, suggesting a possible shift towards more accommodative policies [3]. Decision Challenges - The Fed is navigating a complex decision-making environment, with Powell emphasizing that future policy will not follow a preset path and will depend entirely on data performance. The current dilemma involves achieving the dual mandate, as the job market is stabilizing but still experiencing slow growth, while inflation remains above the long-term target of 2% [4]. Market Dynamics - Following the announcement, financial markets reacted relatively calmly, indicating that the decision to pause had been anticipated. The U.S. dollar index saw a temporary increase of 1%, supported by Treasury Secretary Besant's reaffirmation of a strong dollar policy [5]. Global Outlook - The Fed's pause does not signify the end of the easing cycle, as futures markets indicate expectations for two more rate cuts in 2026, likely in June and October. This aligns with the December 2025 dot plot, where a majority of officials supported at least one more cut in 2026. The Fed's policy trajectory will significantly impact capital flows and exchange rate dynamics globally [6].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 2026年01月30日 美国 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 降息的"两道门槛" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 1 月 29 日，美联储议息会议宣布政策利率维持在 3.50-3.75%不变，降息暂停。 评论： 图1：1 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 国信证券 | | 美联储议息会议实施说明要点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2026. 01 | 2025. 12 | 2025. ...

今日周五(1月30日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于110.22一线上方，今日开盘于115.89美元/盎司， 截至发稿，comex白银暂报111.14美元/盎司，下跌4.01%，最高触及118.45美元/盎司，最低下探107.82美 元/盎司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 3月白银期货日线图上同样形成了潜在的看跌"关键反转"形态，该形态也需要下一交易日出现持续性抛 压才能确认。若得到确认，此形态将成为白银市场见顶的技术信号。白银多头的下一个上行目标，是令 收盘价突破今日合约高点，也就是历史高点121.785美元的强阻力位。空头的下一个下行目标，是令收 盘价跌破100.00美元的关键支撑位。 白银第一阻力位看115.00美元，随后是117.50美元；第一支撑位看110.00美元，随后是107.50美元。 他每年让美国付出数千亿美元完全没必要、也不应该支付的利息开支。由于关税政策让巨额资金流入美 国，我们现在理应享有全球最低的利率。我一直对世界其他国家都非常友好、仁慈宽容。 只要我轻轻一挥笔，美国就能再增收数百亿美元，而这些国家将不得不回归传统的赚钱方式，而不是继 续骑在美国背 ...

中新网1月30日电 据美媒报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间29日表示，将于周五(30日)上午公布美国联邦 储备委员会下一任主席提名人选。 据信，最终入围的四位候选人可能是：前美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、现 任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒以及贝莱德高管里克·里德。 资料图：当地时间2025年7月24日，美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储大楼。 特朗普自开启第二任期以来，一直敦促美联储降息。此前，白宫以及特朗普政府内阁官员以美联储总部 大楼翻新工程严重超预算为由，多次施压鲍威尔。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于5月届满。 据报道，特朗普在肯尼迪中心说，他将于周五上午宣布美联储主席人选。当被问及是否已经决定人选 时，他回答说："是的，最好如此，不然我得赶紧忙活起来了。" 当天早些时候，特朗普曾表示，他将在下周公布美联储下一任主席的提名人选，并重申呼吁大幅降息的 立场。 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道，美联储主席鲍威尔继任者的遴选工作已启动，共有11名候 选人，其中包括美联储前任和现任官员、经济学家以及华尔街投资专业人士。财政部长对符合条件的候 选人进行了筛选，先将名单缩减至5人，然后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Expected to fluctuate upwards [1] - Palladium: ETFs continue to see inflows, and prices are expected to rise following the trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of platinum and palladium, including price changes, trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and price spreads. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 714.10 with a 2.78% increase; gold exchange platinum closed at 703.90 with a 4.99% increase; New York platinum main contract (previous day) was at 2636.90 with a -2.52% change; London spot platinum (previous day) was at 2639.70 with a -2.38% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 526.60 with a 4.48% increase; RMB spot palladium was at 503.00 with a 9.59% increase; New York palladium main contract (previous day) was at 2035.00 with a -2.89% change; London spot palladium (previous day) was at 2003.50 with a -2.72% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 20,179 kg, a decrease of 8,745 kg from the previous day, and the position was 35,781 kg, an increase of 571 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 63,330 kg, an increase of 9,746 kg, and the position was 101,226 kg, a decrease of 897 kg. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 14,291 kg, an increase of 1,441 kg, and the position was 14,070 kg, an increase of 617 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 29,782 kg, and the position was 51,713 kg, a decrease of 1,950 kg [1] - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,324,168, a decrease of 11,651. Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,220,510, an increase of 1,655 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 655,182, a decrease of 10,006. NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 224,021, with no change [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -10.20, an increase of 14.15 from the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 8.05, an increase of 4.25. The cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 8.73, an increase of 0.22. The spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 47.91, an increase of 36.26. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -23.60, an increase of 21.40. The spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 2.00, an increase of 4.95. The cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.51, an increase of 0.26. The spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 21, an increase of 37.27 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 96.16, a decrease of 0.91%. The US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 6.95, a decrease of 0.10%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95, an increase of 0.03%. The US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.87, a decrease of 0.10% [1] Macro and Industry News - Trump will announce the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman next week and believes interest rates should be lowered by 2 - 3 percentage points. He also plans to take a bipartisan approach to avoid a government shutdown [4] - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week cease - fire in some areas of Ukraine, and Zelensky said the cease - fire on energy facilities will start on the night of the 29th [4] - Iran issued a warning to merchant ships and will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday. Iranian officials expressed their stance on the current situation [4] - Saudi and Israeli officials visited the US to discuss potential military actions against Iran [4] - CME raised the margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures [4] - The US Senate failed to advance the appropriation bill, and the federal government faces another "shutdown" crisis. The appropriation for the Department of Homeland Security may be in a separate bill [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net - purchased 230 tons of gold in the fourth quarter, and the strong demand for gold in 2026 is expected to continue [4] Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 0; Palladium trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new bond king, Gundlach, believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Powell's term ends. He bets there won't be further rate - cuts during Powell's tenure, while the market expects two 25 - basis - point cuts by the end of 2026. He also suggests allocating 30% - 40% to unhedged international stocks [2]. - During the UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China, China and the UK reached a series of positive outcomes, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a high - level climate and nature partnership, resuming high - level security dialogue, and holding mechanism - based dialogues. China is considering unilateral visa - free policies for UK citizens and reducing the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [2][3]. - The trend strength of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively positive but not extremely strong trend [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Zinc Fundamentals - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 25,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the previous day, and the LME 3M zinc electronic trading closed at $3,375.5/ton, up 0.51% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 329,041 lots, an increase of 44,544 lots; its open interest was 114,501 lots, a decrease of 3,698 lots. The LME zinc trading volume was 14,007 lots, an increase of 2,658 lots, and its open interest was 234,070 lots, an increase of 913 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The LME CASH - 3M spread was -$32.06/ton, down $1.25/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 28,341 tons, an increase of 29 tons, while the LME zinc inventory was 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1]. - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4053 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 26,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 25,965 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) was 23,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to restart interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, as the job market stabilizes and inflation has not yet shown a downward turning point [2] - The report highlights that New Oriental's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3% year-on-year [5] - The report projects an upward revision of New Oriental's net profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28, with estimates raised to $497 million, $585 million, and $680 million respectively, reflecting a 13%, 14%, and 17% increase [5] Group 2 - The A-share stock selection for February 2026 includes companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Hikvision, and China Life, indicating a focus on stable holdings during the holiday period [3] - The report notes that the bond market is increasingly influenced by non-bank financial sectors, emphasizing the need for macro-prudential mechanisms to address risks in the bond market [4]