贾天楚｜中信证券 海外研究分析师 S1010524040002 海外研究｜基于重大风险事件视角下的黄金交易策略分析 近期市场对于黄金行情的持续性和价格未来表现存在分歧。从基本面视角看，当前关 税问题的解决还没有定论，股票市场整体仍呈现僵持的状态，因此判断其对黄金的利 好尚未完全结束。此外，市场对于未来可能发生的"类滞胀"环境下的"胀"的定价尚不 充分，综合上述关税、地缘、通胀、增长等几个角度看，黄金行情或许尚未结束。从 交易面上看，黄金交投规模以及热度并未达到历史"最拥挤"区间，资金仍有进一步加 仓的空间。从技术面上看，当前黄金整体呈现"单边上"行情并领跑大类资产，为避免 短时间小幅波动引发的阶段性操作失误的现象，"买入-持有"策略或相对更占优势。 而从交易策略角度出发，我们测算量价策略胜率高于通道策略，前者胜率基本都位于 50%-57%区间；其中，5日和20日均线策略胜率最高；而均线策略一旦上升至30日则 会大大降低胜率。 风险因素：中美关系走向超于市场预期；美联储货币政策超预期；美国经济韧性超预 期；特朗普贸易政策及关税摩擦超预期；模型测算及情景假设偏差；全球关税摩擦引 发的出口波动超预期；两党关于财税等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of China's electricity market from a "single energy market" to a diversified market that includes "energy + capacity + ancillary services," driven by recent policy developments and market reforms [1][5]. Policy Developments - On April 29, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly released the "Basic Rules for the Electricity Ancillary Services Market," aiming to enhance the operational mechanisms of the ancillary services market and clarify the construction timeline for the electricity spot market [2][4]. - The NDRC and NEA outlined a roadmap for establishing a unified national electricity market system by early 2025, with a goal of basic completion by 2030 [3]. Market Structure and Transition - The electricity market is evolving towards a model that integrates energy, capacity, and ancillary services, with significant progress in the mid-to-long-term market and ongoing development of the electricity spot market [5][6]. - The ancillary services market is being refined to support the stable operation of the electricity spot market, with rules being established to facilitate their integration [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing market reforms are expected to benefit various new entities, such as innovative energy storage solutions and virtual power plants, as well as sectors like electricity IT and inter-provincial transmission infrastructure [1][8]. - The potential revenue sources for energy storage projects are expanding, with expected increases in income from energy markets, ancillary services, and capacity markets as reforms progress [7]. Market Construction Timeline - The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, with plans for continuous operation in five regions by 2024, including Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Gansu, Shanxi, and Guangdong [7][9]. - The timeline for the transition to formal operation of the electricity spot market in various provinces has been outlined, with specific deadlines set for regions like Hubei and Zhejiang [3][9]. Conclusion - The article highlights the significant changes in China's electricity market structure and the implications for various stakeholders, indicating a clear trend towards a more integrated and market-driven approach to electricity trading and services [1][5][8].

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【太阳能 】盈利能力环比改善，行业底部无需过度悲观——光伏行业季报总结 投资建议： 根据国家能源局， 2025 年第一季度，全国光伏新增并网 59.71GW ，同比增长 30.5% ， 其中集中式光伏 23.41GW ，分布式光伏 36.31GW 。我们认为，在碳中和大背景下， 25 年国内需求依 然有望保持稳定， 25 年第一季度国内新增并网量的高速增长，证明光伏的需求具备较强韧性，期待新的 场景和政策进一步促进行业发展；我们预计 2025 年国内光伏装机容量将达到 280GW ，同比小幅增长。 2025 年全球光伏装机需求将有望达到 583GW ，同比增长 10% ，海外新兴市场增速更快。当前行业处 于周期底部，价格已得到比较充分的调整，需求依然表现出韧性，给予光伏行业"增持"评级。 光伏行业 25Q1 毛利率和净利率环比提升。 2024 年，光伏板块合计实现营业收入 9737.40 亿元，同比 下降 21.24% ；合计实现归母净利润 -186.30 亿元，同比下降 116.88% ；板块平均毛利率为 12.84% ，同比降低 8.35 个百分点；平 ...

价格已处于底部区间，减值压力有所减小。 光伏行业 2024 全年计提资产减值损失共 480.91 亿元， 24Q4 、 25Q1 单季度计提资产减值损失分别为 242.63 亿元、 37.52 亿元， 25Q1 同比明显下降。我 们认为，产业链价格已经充分调整至底部区间，光伏行业公司已连续计提了较为大额的资产减值损失，后 续存货减值的压力会变小。 负债率小幅上升，经营性现金流同比改善。 光伏板块 24Q4 、 25Q1 末的资产负债率分别为 61.60% 、 61.98% ，环比小幅上升，板块资产负债率自 24Q2 开始处于 60% 以上。 24Q4 、 25Q1 单季度经营 性现金流净额分别为 472.44 亿元、 -33.03 亿元， 25Q1 现金流同比有所改善，仅硅料和组件辅材是同 比下降的，根据历史数据来看， 1 季度一般是全年的低点，企业需要进行一定的原材料备货，我们认为， 由于行业当前处于周期底部，企业开始加强存货管理，更多的实行"以销定产"的策略，现金流表现有望得 到更好的控制。 风险提示： 行业政策波动风险；行业需求下滑风险；竞争加剧风险；新技术替代风险；产品价格波动风 险。 报告导读： 光 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the servo motor industry in China for 2024 Core Insights - The Chinese servo motor market is projected to see a total sales volume of approximately 16.77 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [13][14] - The total sales revenue for the servo motor market is estimated to be around 10.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous year [16][17] - The domestic servo motor market is dominated by local manufacturers, holding approximately 52% of the market share, while foreign brands account for about 48% [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Content Summary - The report outlines the challenges faced by the Chinese economy in 2024, including insufficient demand and operational difficulties for some enterprises, but overall economic growth is expected to continue with GDP reaching 134.9 trillion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [4][6] 2. Macro Environment Analysis - The industrial economy in China is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, with total investment projected at approximately 17 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [5][7] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see a revenue increase of 3% and an added value growth of 5% [5][7] 3. Competitive Landscape Analysis - The report indicates that domestic brands have a significant presence in both the AC and DC servo motor segments, with local manufacturers capturing over half of the market share [19][21] 4. Demand Structure Analysis - The demand for servo motors is expected to be driven by policies promoting energy efficiency and green development, which are aimed at achieving carbon neutrality goals [8][10] 5. Appendix - The report includes data on the import and export situation of servo motors in China, with exports estimated at approximately 870 million yuan, primarily consisting of AC servo motors [18][19]

Group 1 - The convertible bond of Shuangliang closed at 100.34 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 145 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 36.29% [1] - The credit rating of Shuangliang's convertible bond is "AA", with a maturity of 6 years and a conversion price of 6.18 yuan starting from February 19, 2024 [1] - Convertible bonds are special corporate bonds that can be converted into common stock under specific conditions, combining features of both debt and equity [1] Group 2 - Shuangliang Energy Systems Co., Ltd. was established in 1982 and focuses on green and environmental protection, aiming to become a digital-driven carbon-neutral solution service provider [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Shuangliang Energy reported a revenue of 2.0787 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -161.3 million yuan, an increase of 45.27% year-on-year [2] - As of March 2025, the shareholding concentration of Shuangliang Energy is very dispersed, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 48.31% of shares [2]

目录 第一章 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业概述 1.1 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤定义及行业概述 1.2 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤所属国民经济分类 1.3 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业产品分类 1.4 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业下游应用领域介绍 1.5 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业产业链分析 1.5.1 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业上游行业介绍 1.5.2 一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业下游客户解析 第二章 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业最新市场分析 2.1 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业主要上游行业发展现状 2.2 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业主要下游应用领域发展现状 2.3 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业当前所处发展周期 2.4 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业相关政策支持 2.5 "碳中和"目标对中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业的影响 第三章 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业发展现状 3.1 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术激光光纤行业市场规模 3.2 中国一次性和可重复使用的手术 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 64.519 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.874 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 14.559 billion yuan, down 8.53% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.65% year-on-year to 1.163 billion yuan, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 208.81% [1]. - The company's household photovoltaic business continues to lead the industry with a market share that has been at the top for several years, with an annual new installed capacity exceeding 13GW in 2024 and a total installed capacity of over 19GW by the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The inverter and energy storage business is expanding in key markets, maintaining the number one market share in North America and South Korea, while achieving breakthroughs in Europe [4]. Summary by Sections Household Photovoltaic Business - In 2024, the company added over 13GW of new installed capacity, with a total installed capacity exceeding 19GW, maintaining the top market share in the industry. The subsidiary, Zhengtai Aneng, reported a revenue increase of 7.5% to 31.826 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 9.88% to 2.861 billion yuan [2]. Low Voltage Electrical Equipment - The low voltage electrical equipment business saw a revenue increase of 3.89% to 20.922 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin increase of 1.97 percentage points to 29.99%. The company is enhancing its domestic and international market presence, particularly in emerging markets [2]. Inverter and Energy Storage Business - The inverter and energy storage business achieved a revenue growth of 31.4% to 1.646 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales volume increase of 0.72% to 169,200 units. The gross margin for this segment increased by 3.13 percentage points to 33.87% [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of 4.528 billion yuan, 4.980 billion yuan, and 5.509 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a downward adjustment of 10% and 7% for 2025 and 2026 [4][6].

2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 户用光伏保持高质量发展，逆变器储能业务聚焦重点市场突破 ——正泰电器（601877.SH）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 645.19 亿 元，同比+12.7%，实现归母净利润 38.74 亿元，同比+5.1%；2025Q1 实现营业 收入 145.59 亿元，同比-8.53%，实现归母净利润 11.63 亿元，同比+7.65%， 环比+208.81%。 户用光伏维持市占率行业领先，智慧电器产业稳健扩张国内外市场。 （1）户用光伏业务方面，2024 年公司年度新增装机容量超 13GW，电站交易规 模超 8GW，截至 2024 年底持有电站装机容量突破 19GW（户用光伏业务市占率 连续多年蝉联行业榜首），控股子公司正泰安能 2024 年营业收入同比增长 7.50% 至 318.26 亿元，净利润同比增长 9.88%至 28.61 亿元。 （2）低压电器业务方面，公司在国内持续提增国网省网统招协议库存与电商化 业务，自主品牌低压成套设备进入浙江省网等标志性配网项目应用，在海外的 ...

Group 1: Energy Transition and Policy - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will continue to lead the global energy transition, shifting fossil energy's role to chemical raw materials, with green technologies like renewable energy and CCUS expected to develop long-term [1] - By 2035, China's primary energy demand is projected to reach a peak of 7 billion tons of standard coal, with non-fossil energy's share expected to rise to 78% by 2060, supporting the carbon neutrality goal [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - Marine oil and gas resources are becoming the main force for domestic oil reserve increases, with significant potential in marine renewable energy, such as offshore wind power, expected to exceed 350 million kilowatts in installed capacity by 2060 [2] - The energy pipeline network in China has made significant progress, with a total pipeline length expected to exceed 300,000 kilometers by around 2040, evolving from traditional transport channels to a new energy system [2] Group 3: Refining and Chemical Industry Transformation - The refining industry is transitioning from traditional fuel production to chemical raw material production, with crude oil processing expected to drop to 300 million tons by 2060, primarily for chemical products [2] - Catalytic cracking will focus on processing heavy raw materials to meet the demand for chemical raw materials [2] Group 4: CCUS Technology and Coal Chemical Industry - CCUS technology is seen as a key to achieving global carbon neutrality, with China expected to achieve a carbon storage capacity of 3 billion tons by 2060 [3] - The coal chemical industry faces structural supply-demand contradictions and challenges in green and digital transformation, necessitating a shift from "making good use of coal" to "making good use of carbon" [3]