过去一周，国际黄金市场再度上演史诗级行情。伦敦现货黄金价格强势突破5200美元/盎司大关，刷新 历史新高。机构人士指出，从基本面逻辑上看，这一轮上涨并非短期情绪驱动，而是多重结构性逻辑共 振下的必然结果。 首先，美元信用体系持续承压，"去美元化"进入加速阶段。 近期美国财政赤字再度扩大、政府停摆风险反复扰动、美债收益率曲线倒挂加深，叠加全球多国央行持 续增持黄金储备（2025年全年北美黄金ETF流入达890亿美元，创历史纪录），黄金作为"非主权信用资 产"的战略价值被重新定价。世界黄金协会数据显示，全球黄金ETF总持仓已攀升至4025吨的历史峰 值，显示出机构资金对黄金的长期配置意愿空前强烈。 作为追踪A股、港股黄金产业链的指数产品，平安中证沪深港黄金产业ETF（159322） 紧密跟踪中证沪 深港黄金产业股票指数，标的指数覆盖沪深港三地上市龙头矿企。高金价预计直接转化为企业销售收入 与利润的跃升，推动自由现金流大幅改善，估值修复空间广阔。截至1月27日，年初至今累计涨幅已达 36.55%，跑赢沪深300指数及国际现货黄金涨幅。（风险提示：ETF的二级市场涨跌幅不代表基金实际 收益率，不构成投资推荐） 以上内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in spot gold prices, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, reflects a strong demand for this safe-haven asset, exacerbated by comments from U.S. President Trump that contributed to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold closed up $173.19, a 3.46% increase, reaching $5,181.10 per ounce [2]. - Gold prices have risen over 18% year-to-date, primarily due to rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and increased purchasing power from global central banks amid a trend of de-dollarization [2]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a record trading volume of 3,338,528 contracts for metals on Monday, surpassing the previous record set in October 2025 [2]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 1.32%, closing at 95.76, influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions from trade wars and Trump's comments on the dollar's performance [2][4]. - Trump's remarks indicated he does not view the dollar's decline as excessive, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar index to a new low since February 2022 [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Société Générale predict that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year [3]. - Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, but concerns about the Fed's independence are prevalent [4]. - Analysts warn that if Fed Chair Powell delivers hawkish comments, it could trigger significant profit-taking, potentially pushing gold prices down to support levels of $5,000, $4,950, and $4,900 per ounce [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with various factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations influencing different industries Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.33% at 112.09 yuan, and others remaining unchanged. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 78 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract down 0.20%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract unchanged, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract up 0.64%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract up 0.55% [8] - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, along with increased market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,148.38 with a 0.44% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 28,300 with a 4.02% increase [12] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to a significant increase in precious metals recently and rising speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported at certain ranges [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of steel products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Supply pressure is increasing, and inventory is rising. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [16][17] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight pullback. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported at certain levels [18] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [18][19] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures had obvious pullbacks. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: The futures of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21][22] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract closed down 0.72% at 5,818 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closed down 0.99% at 5,604 yuan/ton [23] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues. Currently, the cost is at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and closed near the 5 - day moving average. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24][25] - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new sanctions on Iran and geopolitical risks have pushed up the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is strong and has room to rise. Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26][27] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and was supported by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory dropped to a three - month low due to reduced imports and increased exports. The spot price difference has improved [28][29] - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [30] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed price movements, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The propane cost remains high, but demand is insufficient [31] - **Outlook**: This week, the polyolefin market will be in a tight supply - demand situation. The increase in crude oil prices and some production line overhauls may lead to a short - term price increase. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate upward. Investors can focus on long opportunities [31][32] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed down 1.63%. The price in Shandong was adjusted downward, and the basis was stable [33] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly. Key factors to watch include the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January's plant overhauls [33][35] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract closed down 0.31%, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed up 0.04%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable, and the basis was stable [36] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation. Supply is decreasing, demand is expected to be stable to weak, and inventory is increasing [36][37] PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract closed down 0.55%. The spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly [38] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently the traditional off - season for PVC, the market may oscillate strongly due to policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and increased exports may improve the supply - demand situation. Investors need to be vigilant about demand uncertainties [38][40] Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed down 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, and the basis was stable [41] - **Outlook**: The short - term price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [41][42] PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell 2.62%. The PXN spread was adjusted, and the short - flow profit was maintained [43] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - flow profit are stable. The PX start - up rate is declining. The market sentiment and cost (crude oil) may provide support. The market may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the risk of external crude oil fluctuations [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 3.17%. The PTA plant load remained stable, and the polyester load decreased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has returned to the average level of previous years, and the upward space is limited. The inventory remains low. The supply side has little change, and the demand side has a seasonal decline. The market may oscillate. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.6%. The overall start - up load decreased, and the port inventory increased [45] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply side is shrinking, and the market sentiment is boosted. However, the port inventory is increasing, and the downstream polyester is in the seasonal overhaul period. The price may have limited upward space. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [45] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell 1.97%. The short - fiber plant load increased, and the downstream terminal开工率 decreased [46] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level. The sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, and the inventory is at a low level, providing some support. The short - fiber may oscillate with the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract fell 2.52%. The bottle - chip processing fee increased, and the plant load decreased [47] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. The bottle - chip is expected to oscillate with the cost side. Investors can participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [47] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,194 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [48] - **Outlook**: The market is in a loose situation, and the price is stable for the time being. In the short term, there is a lack of substantial support, and the price will be adjusted stably. It is recommended to be cautious [48][49] Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,066 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The production line remained unchanged, and the inventory increased [50] - **Outlook**: The market is in a loose situation. The price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [50] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of caustic soda closed at 1,951 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The production is high, the demand is low, and the inventory is high [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. Affected by the price fluctuation of alumina and the cost range of the futures, the trading sentiment may fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the futures may oscillate. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [51][52] Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,342 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The inventory continued to increase, and the spot trading was light [53] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the approaching end of downstream procurement and the continuous increase in port inventory. The futures may have a short - term technical rebound, and investors should treat it rationally [53][54] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.5% to 179,600 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing [55] - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [55] Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose [56][57] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing [56][57][58] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, up 1.62%. The alumina market is in surplus, and the aluminum demand is suppressed by high prices [59] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The supply - demand of the aluminum industry chain is under pressure in the short term [59][60] Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 25,025 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [61][62] - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply [62][63] Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply and demand are both weak [64] - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to oscillate within a range. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [64][65] Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.41% to 436,450 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and the demand has some resilience [66][67] - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply is tight, and the demand has support from emerging fields. The inventory is decreasing [66][67] Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.96% to 143,420 yuan/ton. The cost is rising, and the demand is weak [68] - **Outlook**: The nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [68] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract remained flat at 2,766 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.03% to 8,258 yuan/ton. The US dollar is weakening, and the soybean export competitiveness is increasing [69] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range. The demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and investors can consider taking profits on rallies [69][70] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. The export data is good, and the production is declining. The domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing [71] - **Outlook**: Investors can consider long opportunities after a pullback [71][72] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed closed almost flat. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing [73][74] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [73][74][75] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly. The USDA cotton supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton production is increasing, but the inventory increase is lower than expected [76][77] - **Outlook**: The medium - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the short - term domestic price is under pressure due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Investors can buy on pullbacks [76][77][78] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the overseas raw sugar rebounded slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply

印欧敲定"历史性"自贸协定，美国政府停摆风险攀升 FICC日报 | 2026-01-28 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。1月26日，商务部表示，中方愿与美方管控分歧、推进合作， 将出台扩大入境消费政策措施。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights Trump's use of tariffs as a political weapon against South Korea, particularly in light of its recent free trade agreement with China, indicating a deeper issue of the U.S. losing its global leadership [1][3] - Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on South Korean goods from 15% to 25% due to non-compliance with a trade agreement raises questions about the selective targeting of South Korea over other nations like Japan, which has worse compliance records [1] - The U.S. demands unrealistic commitments from South Korea, such as a $350 billion investment, which could destabilize the Korean economy and lead to a financial crisis if enforced [1] Group 2 - The domestic political turmoil in the U.S., including record government shutdowns and rising national debt exceeding $38 trillion, is contributing to the erosion of American leadership and credibility [5] - Trump's unilateral policies and exploitation of allies have strained relationships, pushing many countries to adopt counter-strategies, indicating a significant shift in international alliances [7] - The global order is shifting towards multipolarity, as the current model of economic globalization no longer meets the needs of major countries, with Trump's insistence on a unipolar approach being increasingly out of touch [8]

今日早盘，A股小幅震荡，主要股指涨跌互现，上证指数、深证成指、北证50等小幅飘红，科创50、创 业板指等则小幅下挫。下跌个股远多于上涨个股，成交保持平稳。 盘面上，贵金属、油服工程、分散染料、玻璃玻纤等板块涨幅居前，航天装备、光伏设备、外骨骼机器 人、教育培训等板块跌幅居前。 恒生指数大涨逾2%，创5年半来新高。 化工股全线上涨 化工股集体走强，分散染料方向领涨，板块指数盘中放量大涨逾4%，创近7年来新高，开盘不到1小时 成交就超过昨日全天成交。锦鸡股份直线20%涨停，亚邦股份、闰土股份、浙江龙盛均仅用约4分钟时 间垂直涨停。 2026年以来，化工行业掀涨价潮。上游原材料价格集体走高，成本压力沿产业链层层传导，颜料、涂料 等多个细分领域企业密集发布调价公告。 染化严选数据显示，2026年以来，2-氯-4-硝基苯胺价格迅速攀升，由2025年每吨2.5万元上涨至目前3.8 万元，涨幅超50%。2-氯-4-硝基苯胺，对分散蓝、紫、红色系至关重要，占染料成本20%—30%。 贵金属概念股继续大幅飙升，板块指数早间高开高走飙涨逾9%，再创历史新高。飞南资源、晓程科技 均在临近午间收盘20%涨停，白银有色（维权）连续第7 ...

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

2026年1月27日，黄金市场延续了强势表现。 伦敦现货黄金价格突破5082美元/盎司，单日上涨0.87%；国内黄金T D价格报1141.5元/克，较前一日上涨7.43 元。 周大福、周大生等品牌黄金零售价突破1578元/克，单日涨幅超2%。 建设银行投资金条价格达1146.40元/克，工商银行如意金条1151.45元/克，单日涨 幅都超过1.5%。 回顾2025年，黄金市场呈现史诗级上涨。 伦敦现货黄金从年初约2650美元/盎司起步，累计涨幅达67%，年内超过50次刷新历史新高，最高逼近4600美元/盎 司关口。 国内黄金消费市场同样火热，主流品牌首饰金价从年初每克800元左右涨至年末的1360元附近，每克涨幅约560元。 所谓"重演历史"，是指当前驱动金价上涨的核心逻辑与历史上黄金大牛市的启动条件高度契合。 比如2008年金融危机后，黄金从800美元/盎司涨至1900美 元/盎司；2020年疫情期间，金价从1500美元/盎司飙升至2070美元/盎司。 这两轮行情背后都是全球不确定性上升、货币宽松和资产配置需求爆发的共同作 用。 当前金价上涨的第一个核心逻辑是央行购金潮持续加码。 截至2025年12月末，中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is declining, with its share in global central bank foreign exchange reserves dropping to around 40%, the lowest level in at least 20 years [1]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline - From 2020 to 2026, the dollar's share in global reserves is expected to decrease by nearly 14 percentage points, equating to a reduction of approximately $3.2 trillion in dollar assets held by central banks [1]. - A survey by OMFIF indicates that while the dollar remains the most popular reserve currency in 2024, it is projected to fall to seventh place by 2025 [1]. - Nearly 16% of central banks plan to increase their euro holdings, and it is anticipated that 30% of central banks will increase their holdings of the renminbi over the next decade, potentially doubling its share in global reserves [1]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Dollar's Erosion - The three foundational pillars supporting the dollar's global position—stable current account, strong institutional trust, and independent monetary policy—are showing signs of weakening [2]. - The US's need to continuously export dollars has led to persistent fiscal deficits and trade imbalances, which undermine the credibility of the dollar [2]. - A significant 70% of survey respondents expressed concerns about investing in dollars due to the current political environment in the US, indicating a loss of global investor confidence in the dollar system [2]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - There are growing market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with increasing political pressure from the US government [3]. - The value of the dollar heavily relies on a transparent, independent, and predictable policy framework, and any damage to the Fed's independence could lead to a sharp decline in global trust in the dollar [3]. - The US is attempting to bolster the dollar's dominance through stablecoins, but experts suggest that this may not be sufficient to counteract the underlying issues affecting the dollar's status [3]. Group 4: Alternatives to the Dollar - Morgan Stanley has indicated that gold is emerging as the largest challenger to the dollar, with its share in central bank assets rising from about 14% to between 25% and 28% [4]. - Reports suggest that gold may replace the dollar as the largest reserve asset globally by 2026, with spot gold prices recently surpassing $5,000 per ounce [4]. - The rise of new technologies in cross-border payments and the increasing influence of regional organizations are contributing to a more diversified global trade settlement landscape [5]. Group 5: Long-term Trends - The process of de-dollarization is not sudden but rather a gradual accumulation of factors leading to long-term effects, exacerbated by recent US actions that disrupt regional peace and market stability [6]. - The US may continue its unilateral approach, but the global landscape is shifting away from a dollar-centric model [7].

2026年以来，A股市场依旧火热，与2025年极致的成长风格有所差异的是，当前顺周期板块强势崛起，有色、油气等接连冲高，或成为本轮春季躁动最耀眼 的板块。 1月28日，油气、有色板块再度领涨，"金铜含量"领先的有色ETF汇添富（159652）大涨3.72%，油气ETF汇添富（159309）大涨3.24%，再创历史新高。 | 同指数ETF仅显示最活跃的一(2 ■ 成交额 > 0.0 亿 ■ 估算规模 > 0.0 亿 ■ 跟踪指数 | | | --- | --- | | 代码 类型 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ 溢折率 成交额 | | 159652 主 有色ETF汇添富 | 2.147 0.077 3.72% 0.37% 3.05亿 | | 159309 主 油气ETF汇添富 | 1.370 0.043 3.24% 0.32% 5274.38万 | 值得注意的是，顺周期板块的春季躁动并非是偶尔，而是"全球风云变幻、A股盈利修复预期、资金抢跑复苏预期"等多重因素催化的结果： 从全球宏观视角来看，康波萧条期内，美元信用裂痕扩张，叠加地缘冲突频繁涌现，大宗商品的货币属性和安全属性得到增强，商品的超级周期启动！金银 ...