政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团欧洲区总经理拉赫曼认为，如果形势恶化，美国对欧盟征收15%的普遍关税 税率，再加上对某些行业的征税，欧洲将会采取报复措施。美欧贸易谈判进入倒计时，未来贸易格局将 如何演变，备受全球关注。（文馨） 在美欧谈判的关键时刻，22日下午，白宫发布联合声明表示，美国和印尼已就一项贸易协定框架达成一 致，印尼将对美国工业和科技产品以及农产品开放市场，取消99%的关税壁垒。美国能以零关税向印尼 出售美国制造的产品，而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税。双方还承诺在未来几周继 续"谈判并最终敲定这份互惠贸易协定"，印尼还承诺购买价值150亿美元的美国能源、价值45亿美元的 美国农产品以及50架波音飞机。 除了关税问题，美国总统还威胁欧洲处方药提价。美国正在努力争取让其他国家稍微提高药品价格，并 让制药公司接受。如果不这样做，制药公司就将面临很多问题。美国总统以减肥处方药司美格鲁肽为 例，指出同样的药在欧洲价格远低于美国。欧盟并不愿付出过高代价，德国财长克林贝尔明确表示，绝 不能以任何代价达成协议。 面对可能恶化的贸易局势，欧盟已制定多轮反制方案，并将具体实施时间与特朗普政府设定的8月1日最 ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：出现严重负面"贸易战"的可能性似乎已经降低。 ...

Group 1: Report's Core Views - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 79,875 and a basis of 285, showing a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories present a neutral situation. On July 23, the copper inventory decreased by 25 to 124,825 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logic of recent market movements is influenced by domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - China's copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Group 2: China's Annual Copper Supply - Demand Balance Table | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 873 | 372 | 28 | 1217 | 1207 | 1 | | 2019 | 894 | 348 | 35 | 1207 | 1205 | | | 2020 | 930 | 452 | 21 | 1361 | 1291 | 70 | | 2021 | 998 | 344 | 27 | 1315 | 1361 | - 46 | | 2022 | 1028 | 367 | 23 | 1372 | 1380 | - 8 | | 2023 | 1144 | 351 | 28 | 1467 | 1477 | - 10 | | 2024 | 1206 | 373 | 46 | 1534 | 1523 | 11 | [22]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Group 1 - Financial markets experienced significant volatility on July 16, 2025, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.01%, indicating a market bet on "long-term high interest rates" [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw a sharp decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts within the year plummeted from 93% to 76% [3] - Gold prices struggled below $3,335, with significant trading activity indicating heightened market risk aversion [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly Nvidia, thrived amid market turmoil, with Nvidia's stock surging 4% after the announcement of AI chip exports to China, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments about the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair added to market uncertainty, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to exceed 5% [4][6] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve were highlighted, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, indicating a lack of consensus on future actions [6] Group 3 - Trump's inquiry about potentially firing Fed Chair Powell led to a market collapse, with gold prices rising by $20 and the dollar index falling by 25 points, reflecting heightened market anxiety [8] - Inflation data released showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June CPI, with core CPI rising 2.9%, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [9] - The market is bracing for further inflationary pressures, with predictions of core PCE inflation reaching 3.2% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about the economic outlook [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the third round of trade talks between the U.S. and China to be held on July 28-29 in Stockholm, indicating a proactive approach from the U.S. ahead of the August 12 tariff truce expiration [1][3] - The U.S. is under pressure as the trade war has not reversed the trade deficit, which is projected to reach $918.4 billion in 2024, the second highest in nearly 60 years [3][5] - The U.S. is seeking to leverage the upcoming talks to mitigate potential market panic from the August 1 deadline for trade agreements with multiple countries [5][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is showing a shift in its approach to China, with recent statements from President Trump acknowledging China's cooperation, contrasting with earlier aggressive tariff increases [1][3] - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a recovery in trade figures, with exports to the U.S. rebounding to over 3500 billion yuan in June, indicating strong performance despite U.S. tariffs [5][7] - The U.S. hopes to pressure China into increasing energy imports from the U.S. while reducing purchases from Iran and Russia, aiming to address trade imbalances [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. is experiencing domestic political and economic pressures, with farmers and businesses expressing dissatisfaction with tariff policies, influencing the government's willingness to negotiate [11][13] - The depth of economic interdependence between the U.S. and China remains significant, with China accounting for 14.7% of U.S. exports and 6.3% of imports, suggesting that complete decoupling is unlikely [11][13] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade negotiations, emphasizing the need for equal and mutually beneficial discussions, particularly in the context of technology and trade restrictions [13]

今日摘要 习近平总书记指出："制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业合理比重。现 代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子"。今年上半年，我国制造业 核心技术持续突破，传统产业加速焕新，新产业蓬勃成长。 中共中央、国务院、中央军委决定给蔡旭哲颁发"二级航天功勋奖章"，授予宋令东、王浩泽"英雄航天 员"荣誉称号并颁发"三级航天功勋奖章"。 法国称，与美国贸易谈判未见成效，欧方须展现更强硬立场。 内容速览 【新思想引领新征程】中国制造向新而行 不断筑牢强国之基 习近平总书记指出，"制造业是国民经济的重要支柱，推进中国式现代化必须保持制造业合理比重。现 代制造业离不开科技赋能，要大力加强技术攻关，走自主创新的发展路子"。 今年上半年，我国制造业核心技术持续突破，传统产业加速焕新，新产业新业态蓬勃成长，带动经济增 长的引擎作用更加强劲。 经党中央批准，海南自由贸易港定于2025年12月18日正式启动封关。 国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，公安部介绍以高水平安全护航"十四五"规划高质量完成有关情况。 上半年，全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区1.65万个。 各地积极应对强降雨天气，打好防 ...

7月23日周三《新闻联播》要闻24条 智通财经7月23日电，今天《新闻联播》主要内容有： 1、【新思想引领新征程】中国制造向新而行 不断筑牢强国之基； 2、中共中央 国务院 中央军委关于给蔡旭哲颁发"二级航天功勋奖章" 授予宋令东、王浩泽"英雄航天 员"荣誉称号并颁发"三级航天功勋奖章"的决定； 3、海南自贸港将于今年12月18日正式启动封关； 4、【"十四五"高质量发展答卷】我国已成为世界公认的最安全国家之一； 5、1-6月全国新开工改造城镇老旧小区1.65万个； 6、徐淙祥：多种粮种好粮 带领农户科技种田； 7、各地积极应对强降雨 抢险救援加紧进行； 8、中央企业新增超三千亿元援藏项目； 9、2025年全国文化科技卫生"三下乡"集中示范活动在宁夏举行； 10、"2025上合组织国家文明对话"在天津开幕； 11、上合组织成员国通过植物检疫机制会议声明； 12、新版《商品二维码》国家标准正式实施； 13、4.8万多名西部计划志愿者陆续出征； 14、2025北京仲夏电影嘉年华启动； 15、国际货币基金组织称贸易战升级或对全球经济造成重大影响： 16、法国称与美贸易谈判未见成效 欧方须展现更强硬立场； 17、美国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall shipping derivatives market is showing a downward trend. The 08 contract on Friday saw a significant increase due to Maersk's and ONE's price hikes announcements for August, but the 10 contract declined on July 21st due to ONE's unchanged August price and CMA's price cut. The market dropped in the afternoon today as NSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current price, indicating a possible peak in freight rates [6]. - In the near future, the European line is characterized by stable reality and weak expectations. There may still be a rush to ship in July, and the spot price is expected to reach a rounded peak from late July to early August. After the deep - discount repair in the futures market, investors should avoid chasing high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The China Export Container Freight Index and Shanghai Container Freight Index show different trends. For example, SCFI - West America decreased by 4.98%, SCFI - East America decreased by 0.78%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 2.76%. The SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87% and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts (EC2506, EC2508, etc.) also have different price changes. For instance, the EC2506 contract increased by 1.11%, while the EC2510 contract decreased by 1.84%. There are also changes in positions and monthly spreads [3][4]. Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian - imported goods and exempting US goods from tariffs in the Indonesian market. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and preparing counter - measures. India is in trade negotiations with the US, and the trade relationship between China and Europe is expected to enter a period of intense conflict [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].