【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡 谢文婷】编者的话：在美国针对多国挑起的贸易摩擦中，大豆成为交锋的 焦点：这种原产于中国的作物，目前是美国最主要的对华出口产品之一。受关税和贸易不确定性影响， 中国正加快从巴西、阿根廷等南美国家采购大豆。 中国是大豆起源国，包括美国、巴西、阿根廷等世界各国的大豆均直接或间接引自中国。在上世纪60年 代之前，中国大豆种植面积、总产都居世界首位，但此后美国引领了全球的大豆品种改良，并迅速在南 美普及新大豆品种，在超过半个世纪的"大豆风云"中，改写了世界大豆产业格局。《环球时报》记者近 日采访中国、美国、巴西等国大豆企业、专家等行业内人士，追溯大豆产业变迁，观察贸易战在全球大 豆市场引发的即刻效应，看中国大豆如何实现科技自立自强。第一期，我们首先将目光转向巴西大豆， 从巴西植物油行业协会主席安德烈·纳萨尔口中，了解巴西大豆产业目前针对中国市场做出的最新调 整。 不久前，满载近7万吨巴西大豆的"光辉"号货轮缓缓靠泊宁波舟山港老塘山中转作业区。据宁波舟山港 老塘山中转作业区靠泊统计，今年4月巴西大豆装卸量达70万吨，同比增长超过三成。贸易战对中巴大 豆贸易将产生怎样的影响？美国的贸易政策还会 ...

Macro Insights - The U.S. has decided to revoke student visas for Chinese students linked to the government or studying in key fields, which has been criticized by China's Foreign Ministry as a discriminatory act that harms the rights of Chinese students and disrupts cultural exchanges between the two countries [3] - The U.S. economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in three years, attributed to the impact of the trade war initiated by former President Trump [29] Financial Alerts - Several banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as deposit rates are lowered, indicating a shift in banks' strategies to optimize deposit structures under pressure [35] - The average monthly cancellation of private fund managers has reached nearly 100, reflecting a trend of industry consolidation amid stricter regulations [34] Company Alerts - Li Auto reported a first-quarter adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20%, with revenue of 25.93 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.1% [16] - *ST Jinkang is set to face mandatory delisting due to significant violations, as determined by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [18] - *ST Modern has accumulated unresolved litigation involving 57.44 million yuan, representing 17.09% of its latest audited net assets [19] - Zhongke Xingtu has been suspended from participating in military procurement activities due to violations, which may impact its operations in the short term [20] - The debt restructuring of Country Garden is facing obstacles as key banks have not yet joined the restructuring agreement [14] Industry Alerts - The EU has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese tires, which has raised concerns from China's Ministry of Commerce about the negative impact of trade protectionism [38] - The domestic fuel surcharge for air travel will be adjusted starting June 5, with routes under 800 kilometers exempt from the surcharge [37] - IDC has significantly lowered its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 from 2.6% to 0.6%, citing economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [41]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月29日16时48分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.81%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险仍存； 美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，美国贸易法庭作出阻止特朗普全球关税的裁定，避险情绪 降温。美国彻底告别顶级AAA信评俱乐部，20年期新债遇冷。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储会议纪 要显示，美联储承认通胀和失业率恐同时攀升，将面临艰难取舍。美国企业设备支出创六个月最大降幅，关税不确定性挥之不去。 目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压偏弱；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies aim to reshape global trade order and promote U.S. re-industrialization, with a focus on generating new revenue sources through tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Impact - Trump imposed high tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners within 40 days, with China facing the highest tariffs, reaching 145% on certain goods [4][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has reached historical highs, significantly impacting market confidence and leading to increased concerns among businesses [2][6]. - A temporary suspension of tariffs was announced for 90 days, reducing tariffs from 49% to 10% for certain countries, but China remained unaffected [4][7]. Group 2: Business Challenges - U.S. businesses, particularly small companies reliant on Chinese imports, faced severe challenges due to rising costs and declining sales, leading to cash flow issues [9][10]. - Major retailers like Walmart indicated they could not fully absorb tariff costs, leading to price increases for consumers [11][12]. - The toy industry, represented by companies like Mattel, anticipated price hikes due to tariffs, with significant portions of their products manufactured in China [12][13]. Group 3: Agricultural Sector Impact - U.S. farmers have suffered significant losses due to trade wars, with agricultural exports dropping by over $27 billion during Trump's first term [15][18]. - California pistachio growers, heavily reliant on the Chinese market, faced potential devastating losses due to tariffs [16][17]. - The soybean export market has seen a drastic decline, with exports to China dropping by 75% since the onset of the trade war [18]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been negatively affected by tariff policies, with a reported decline in consumer sentiment index [20][21]. - The uncertainty and rising costs associated with tariffs have led to a significant reduction in imports at major California ports, indicating broader economic impacts [22]. - The recent agreement to reduce tariffs between the U.S. and China has provided some clarity, but economists warn of potential economic slowdowns in the coming quarters [23][24].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 报告正文 5月29日，美国国际贸易法庭裁决特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)加征关税的行为违法，美国贸易战的合法性面临哪些挑战？ 特朗普能否拒绝执行？ 从裁决书下发时刻起，根据《行政程序法》，前期加征关税的行政命令已经失效；关税应当被立即停收。裁决中命令政府部门10个日 历日内发布必要的行政命令，以执行永久禁令。即便这一行政命令未颁布，理论上关税也应立刻被取消，否则可视为藐视法庭。 谁是起诉方？ 此次判决是两个起诉的合并审理。一是12 个州民主党籍总检察长联名（俄勒冈州领衔）起诉特朗普政府；二是由非营利组织自由司法中心代理 的5家进口商企业起诉特朗普，包括V.O.S. Selections(酒类进口)、Genova Pipe(塑料管材)等。 判决理由是什么？ 一是特朗普的关税超出IEEPA授权，法院认为总统绕过《1974贸易法》直接使用IEEPA，属于越权，IEEPA未允许总统无限制设定关税税 率；二是以芬太尼与移民问题为由征收关税不符合IEEPA法定条件，关税与打击芬太尼、移民问题之间缺乏合理关联。 IEEPA有何争议？ 一是IEEPA授予总 ...

宝盛银行：英伟达的业绩增长令人惊讶 金十数据5月29日讯，瑞士宝盛银行分析师写道，尽管面临贸易战带来的种种挑战，英伟达仍以惊人的 速度持续增长。我们不知道它是如何做到的，但它确实做到了。英伟达继续逆势而上。该行分析师指 出，尽管因美国的限制措施，英伟达无法销售H20芯片，从而产生了与过剩库存和采购义务相关的45亿 美元费用，但该公司仍实现较高增长率。 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/5/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 最新 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1808.000 19.1↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 2131 | +127.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2506-EC2508价差 | -323.00 -146.50↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 | | 415.60 | -8.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | -560.95 -35.00↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 12716 0↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1247.05 -18.25↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 1,719.79 | 273.43↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1586.12 106.73↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1107.40 2.52↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,3 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariff policy exceeded its authority, suspending its implementation, which indicates that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, leading to an increase in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures rising by 1.8% [1] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs, which eased economic pessimism [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes revealed officials are facing a "difficult trade-off" between rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the Fed's cautious stance has suppressed gold prices [1] - Investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments, following consumer confidence data that exceeded expectations, reinforcing economic stability [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, gold prices showed a downward trend, peaking at 3325 and dropping to a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [2] - The price experienced short-term fluctuations in the morning, testing key resistance levels before facing downward pressure, resulting in a bearish closing [2] - Monthly analysis indicates a correction after three months of price increases, with a four-month upward trend now facing a single-month correction [3] - Weekly analysis shows gold prices supported at the 3160 level, suggesting a continued bullish outlook unless the weekly support is broken [3] - Daily analysis indicates a support level at 3270, with a bearish outlook following a breach of this support [3] - Short-term analysis highlights resistance at the 3295 level, with a cautious approach recommended for further price movements [3] - A trading strategy suggests a short position in the 3294-3295 range, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target between 3245-3210 [5]

Group 1 - Trump's recent announcement offers a "get out of jail free card" for countries imposing tariffs on China, aiming to reshape global trade dynamics [1] - The only country supporting Trump is the UK, while others like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia show a negative attitude towards his approach [3] - Trump's strategy to pressure allies into imposing tariffs on China has seen limited success, particularly with the EU hesitating to agree due to its significant trade ties with China [5][8] Group 2 - Countries are reluctant to respond to Trump's call for tariffs on China due to the importance of the Chinese market for their economies, with significant exports at stake [8] - China's strong stance against any actions that harm its interests has been made clear, with potential retaliatory measures that could impact global supply chains [8][10] - Trump's credibility is questioned due to past actions, leading countries to avoid jeopardizing their relationships with China for uncertain short-term gains [8][12] Group 3 - The global trade situation remains unstable, with China showing resilience against U.S. pressure while remaining open to negotiations [10][19] - Trump's global trade strategy appears to be at an impasse, as allies are unwilling to cooperate, and domestic pressures are mounting [21] - Countries are cautious about engaging in conflict with China, recognizing the potential negative consequences of such actions [19][22]