风劲帆满图新志，砥砺奋进正当时。河南融入服务全国统一大市场建设工作推进会，对融入服务全国统 一大市场建设工作进行再部署再推动，为奋力谱写中原大地推进中国式现代化新篇章提供有力支撑。 建设全国统一大市场是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的重大举措。在经济全球化深入发展和国内经 济转型升级的关键时期，拥有超大规模且极具增长潜力的市场，是我们发展的巨大优势和应对变局的坚 实依托。加快建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场，既有利于促进要素资源在更大范 围内顺畅流动和高效配置，降低市场交易成本，为推动科技创新和企业发展营造有利的市场环境；也有 利于以高质量供给创造和引领需求，为老百姓提供更多优质产品和服务。 力量在信心中汇聚，目标在奋斗中实现。在全局上谋势、在关键处落子，把贯彻中央精神和立足我省实 际、服务全国大局和推动自身发展、顺应发展趋势和积极主动作为有机结合起来，自觉融入服务全国统 一大市场建设，我们定能一步一个脚印把宏伟蓝图变成美好现实。（河南日报评论员） 作为经济大省、工业大省和人口大省，河南在融入服务全国统一大市场建设中独具优势。地处中原腹 地，融汇天下、便利四方，这里既是中部地区加快崛起、黄河流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for deeper reforms to address current economic challenges and set appropriate growth targets for the future [2][4][28]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Targets - The average economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is approximately 5.5%, with a target of around 5% for the current year [1][5]. - The GDP is expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, marking significant growth from previous years [1][6]. - Experts suggest setting a growth target of around 5% for the "15th Five-Year Plan," considering the need to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [7][8]. Group 2: Effective Demand and Consumption - The article identifies insufficient effective demand as a major issue, driven by external pressures and weak domestic consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [10]. - Recommendations to boost effective demand include stabilizing the real estate market, increasing residents' income, and removing consumption restrictions [11][12]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a decrease in the sales area and sales volume of new homes, but confidence still needs to be restored [20][21]. - Future strategies to support the real estate market include removing restrictive policies, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers, and enhancing financial support for housing projects [21][23]. Group 4: Service Industry Development - The service sector is increasingly important, and there is a need to align service supply with consumer demand by breaking down barriers to entry and encouraging investment [16][17]. - Policies should support the development of the service industry through financial incentives and reducing unnecessary regulatory hurdles [17][18]. Group 5: Deepening Reforms - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms to address economic challenges, including enhancing the role of state-owned enterprises and promoting a unified national market [28][29]. - Key reform areas include improving market regulation, reducing government intervention, and expanding institutional openness to align with international standards [30].

五年时间"再造"一个长三角！ 最近，国家发展改革委召开了一场重磅的新闻发布会，既是对"十四五"规划的一份详细总结和 梳理，也是这五年来国家晒出来的一份亮眼成绩单。您要想了解过去五年中国干成了什么，干 好了什么，未来五年的方向是什么，就一定要仔细关注了！要说这五年，咱可没闲着，经济底 盘更稳了，办事效率更高了，老百姓的实惠也更多了。总结起来就是三大感受：国家更强了， 办事更快了，生活更好了！ 首先是，"国家更强了"——这几年里经济增长总量超35万亿，这是什么概念？相当于再造一 个"长三角"那么大的经济体量！"十四五"期间，前四年中国经济平均增速达到5.5%，虽然增速 有所放缓，但步子走得更稳当，更踏实，增长水平仍然远超西方发达国家。特别是在经受过疫 情冲击、产业升级、有效需求不足、贸易摩擦等一系列问题和挑战后，能取得这样的成绩，确 实是来之不易。当前的经济增长，增速和质量同等重要，如此巨大的经济体量，仍能保持5% 左右的增速，可见全国统一大市场和以国内大循环为主的战略的巨大潜力。中国速度，关键时 刻真靠得住！ 出品丨21财经客户端 财经早察工作室 总统筹丨邓红辉 执行统筹丨陈晨星 祝乃娟 监制丨洪晓文 曾婷芳 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant achievements of China over the past five years, highlighting economic stability, improved efficiency, and enhanced living standards [2][3] - China's total economic growth exceeded 35 trillion, equivalent to recreating an economy the size of the Yangtze River Delta, with an average growth rate of 5.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Research and development investment has increased by nearly 50% compared to five years ago, with R&D expenditure accounting for 2.68% of GDP, showcasing China's commitment to innovation [2][3] Group 2 - The business environment has improved significantly, with the number of private enterprises increasing to over 58 million, representing a growth of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The government has streamlined foreign investment regulations, reducing the negative list for foreign access to only 29 items, thus enhancing the openness of the economy [2] - The establishment of the world's largest healthcare, education, and social security systems has improved the quality of life for citizens, with increasing life expectancy and better access to essential services [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to remain volatile. The fundamentals of the index depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization, the current main contradictions are credit contraction and insufficient demand, making it difficult for the index to break through the center and rise significantly. On the other hand, the A - share index will not decline significantly in the short term due to the improvement in corporate profitability in the first half of 2025 and the support of allocation funds [1]. - The bond market is also expected to show a volatile trend. The economic data in June was resilient, but under the care of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital side, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low in the short term. After the bullish factors have been fully interpreted, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On July 16, the A - share market fluctuated flat, with the Wind All - A rising 0.06% and a turnover of 1.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.3%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. The auto and pharmaceutical sectors recovered, while the steel and banking sectors fell. The second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year. However, demand disturbances still exist, and investment continues to decline. The central government emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, but the impact of the "anti - involution" policy needs to consider the transfer mode and scale of central government fiscal incremental policies. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down, and the boost to domestic small - cap indices has weakened [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 16, the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts fell 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 444.6 billion yuan. As of July 16, the weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market declined. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, and the financial data was strong. However, under the care of monetary policy, the bond market lacks the impetus to strengthen further in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 16, IH decreased by 0.14%, IF decreased by 0.24%, IC decreased by 1.88%, and IM increased by 0.33% [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On July 16, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.23%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.30%, the CSI 500 decreased by 0.03%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.30% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 16, TS increased by 0.01%, TF decreased by 0.02%, T decreased by 0.05%, and TL remained unchanged [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On July 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed to varying degrees [4]. 3.3 Market News - The State Council executive meeting listened to the report on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the industry by strengthening cost investigation, price monitoring, and product consistency supervision, and establishing a long - term mechanism for standardizing competition. The meeting also reviewed and approved the draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [6]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures Charts**: The report presents the historical trends of the main contracts of IH, IF, IM, and IC, as well as their basis trends [8][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Charts**: It shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][17][18][19]. - **Exchange Rate Charts**: The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Henan aims to further integrate and serve the national unified market construction, emphasizing the importance of this initiative for high-quality development and the new development pattern [2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The meeting focused on the need to deeply understand and implement the spirit of Xi Jinping's important speech during his visit to Henan [2]. - The provincial government is tasked with ensuring the effective execution of the "five unifications and one openness" basic requirements to enhance domestic and international dual circulation [3]. Group 2: Market Infrastructure and Regulation - There is a call to unify market infrastructure and strengthen both hard and soft connections, particularly in modern commercial circulation systems, especially in rural areas [3]. - The government is urged to standardize regulatory practices and enhance legal, credit, and smart supervision to improve market regulation [3]. Group 3: Economic Development Actions - The meeting outlined several action plans, including market expansion to stimulate consumption and investment, and infrastructure connectivity to eliminate logistical bottlenecks [4]. - Specific initiatives include enhancing agricultural production capacity, optimizing the business environment, and improving the efficiency of resource allocation across various markets [4].

Core Insights - The postal industry in China experienced a year-on-year growth of 16.9% in express delivery volume in the first half of the year, reaching a total of 1,045.1 billion items [8] - The express delivery volume specifically increased by 19.3%, totaling 956.4 billion items [8] - The growth in express delivery services is particularly notable in the central and western regions, with provinces like Guizhou, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang seeing over 35% growth in express delivery volume [3][5] Group 1: Industry Growth and Regional Development - The express delivery business in the central and western regions accounted for a larger share of the national total, increasing by 1.4% compared to the same period last year [3] - Key urban clusters such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and central regions have seen upgrades in postal and express delivery infrastructure [8] - The coverage rate of village-level delivery logistics service stations in Xinjiang is nearly 90% [8] Group 2: Agricultural and E-commerce Impact - The establishment of cold chain logistics facilities and local agricultural product distribution bases has significantly boosted the delivery volume of local agricultural products, with 55.18 million items delivered in the first half of the year, contributing to an agricultural output value of 6.755 billion yuan [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven a substantial increase in e-commerce orders in rural areas, with overall orders growing by over 50% [14] - The logistics demand has led express delivery companies to offer integrated supply chain solutions and diverse end-delivery services, enhancing customer convenience [14][16] Group 3: Economic Support and Consumer Behavior - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a supportive role to actively driving the flow of regional resources, contributing to balanced development between eastern and western regions [7] - The industry has effectively supported the expansion of domestic demand strategies and the release of online consumption needs, reflecting its value in promoting production and consumption [10] - Recent economic measures have accelerated the growth of the express delivery market, particularly following a significant increase in consumer spending in March [12]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - **Company**: 北方华创 (North Huachuang) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment and Consumer Market Key Points and Arguments North Huachuang and Semiconductor Equipment Industry 1. North Huachuang is identified as a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, benefiting from the upgrade of advanced process technology in the semiconductor industry [1] 2. The company has established domestic substitution capabilities for all semiconductor equipment except high-end EUV lithography machines, positioning it as a core player in the semiconductor industry chain [1] 3. The global semiconductor equipment sales to semiconductor product sales ratio has increased from 10.5% in 2014 to an expected 18.5% in 2024, indicating rising importance [1] 4. The share of China's semiconductor equipment market in the global market has grown from 13% in 2015 to an anticipated 42% in 2024 [1] 5. The import equipment share is projected to decline from 91.8% in 2015 to 67.6% in 2024, suggesting a significant shift towards domestic equipment [2] 6. North Huachuang's market share in the domestic semiconductor market is expected to double by 2025 compared to 2020 [2] 7. The company’s ICP products maintain a leading position domestically, while its CCP products have achieved full coverage in key applications [2] 8. Revenue growth predictions for 2025 include a 37% increase for scientific products and a 39% increase for performance products [2] 9. Risks for the company include technological development risks, geopolitical factors, human resources risks, market demand risks, and supply chain risks [3] Consumer Market Insights 1. The consumer market has shown a moderate recovery in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year growth in the mid-single digits from January to May [4] 2. Consumer confidence has slightly improved but remains below the critical level of 100, indicating ongoing caution among consumers [4] 3. The second half of the year may see improved consumer sentiment if consumption-related policies are further refined and expanded [4] 4. Companies are expected to face pressure on profitability due to intense price competition driven by consumer demand for value [5] 5. A new consumer trend is emerging, driven by younger consumers seeking unique product experiences and social attributes [6] 6. The perception of brand premium is shifting towards rationality, with some categories experiencing a gradual shrinkage of brand premiums [6] 7. Companies are increasingly looking to expand into overseas markets due to saturation in domestic markets, particularly in sectors like dining, home appliances, and apparel [7][8] 8. The investment focus for the second half of the year includes essential goods and emerging sectors that align with new consumer trends [9] Policy and Market Dynamics 1. Recent high-level meetings have emphasized the need for a unified national market and the elimination of low-price competition, aiming to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [10][11] 2. The glass manufacturing sector is expected to see a significant reduction in production, which may lead to improved market conditions and price recovery [12] 3. The automotive sector is experiencing fluctuations in new vehicle sales, with expectations for increased promotional activities and new model launches in the second half of the year [13][14] 4. Recent policies in the pharmaceutical sector aim to enhance the pricing mechanisms for innovative drugs, potentially increasing the pricing flexibility for companies [15][16][17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The consumer market is witnessing a shift towards emotional experiences in purchasing decisions, moving away from purely functional needs [6] 2. The potential for structural growth opportunities exists in niche markets that cater to emerging consumer trends [9] 3. The integration of commercial insurance and medical insurance directories is being clarified, which may impact the pharmaceutical market dynamics [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of constructing a new development pattern in China, focusing on high-quality economic development and self-reliance as a response to both domestic and international challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding the New Development Pattern - The new development pattern is characterized by a domestic major circulation as its main body, addressing the need for a strong domestic market to enhance economic resilience [3][4]. - It is an open dual circulation model that connects domestic and international markets, aiming to utilize global resources while enhancing domestic economic capabilities [4][5]. Group 2: Advantages of the New Development Pattern - The strategy reflects the central leadership's deep understanding of China's economic and social development, leading to significant progress in policy implementation and institutional improvement [7]. - The domestic major circulation's internal driving force is strengthening, with consumer spending contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [8]. Group 3: Key Components for Implementation - The smooth operation of economic circulation is crucial, requiring a balance between supply and demand, and addressing existing bottlenecks [5][6]. - Emphasis on technological self-reliance is vital for ensuring the stability of domestic circulation and gaining advantages in international circulation [6][11]. Group 4: Enhancing Domestic Demand - The strategy includes expanding effective investment and boosting consumption through various supportive policies, aiming to enhance the overall economic structure [17][18]. - The integration of technology and industry innovation is prioritized to foster new economic growth drivers and improve productivity [18]. Group 5: Regional and International Cooperation - The article highlights the importance of coordinated regional development and the integration of urban and rural economies to optimize the domestic circulation space [19][20]. - It advocates for high-level opening-up to better leverage international circulation, enhancing trade and investment quality [20][21].

2025 年 07 月 16 日 2025 年 6 月经济增长数据点评 上半年中国经济平稳运行 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策效果不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 上半年，中国实际 GDP 同比达到 5.3%，为完成全年目标打下了较好基础。 二季度，中国实际 GDP 同比增长 5.2%。从支出法 GDP 来看，二季度最终 消费支出拉动 GDP 2.72 个百分点，资本形成总额拉动 1.28 个百分点，货物 和服务净出口拉动 1.2 个百分点，内需进一步成为经济增长的主动力。二季 度 GDP 平减指数为-1.2%，较一季度下降 0.4 个百分点，二季度名义 GDP 同 比增长 3.94%。 ...