Group 1 - The A-share precious metals sector is performing strongly, with the sector index rising by 0.49% to 22,412.19 points, driven by the continuous increase in international gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to $3,780.5 per ounce, while spot gold prices increased by 0.48% to $3,753.96 per ounce [1] - Spot silver prices surged by 2.63% to $45.0745 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high with a year-to-date increase of over 55% [1] Group 2 - The current bull market in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global central banks increasing gold reserves, heightened market risk aversion, and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [1] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion for the year, indicating growing demand for safe-haven assets among institutional investors [1] Group 3 - E Fund's gold-related products, particularly the E Fund Gold ETF (159934), have become convenient tools for investors to gain exposure to gold, closely tracking the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 spot price [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's net asset value reached 25.253 billion yuan, with a significant second-quarter share increase of 42%, totaling 3.558 billion shares and a profit of nearly 700 million yuan [2] - The fund's unit net value as of September 26, 2025, was 8.52 yuan, with a cumulative net value growth rate of 9.55% over the past month [2] Group 4 - The E Fund Gold ETF has demonstrated excellent index tracking ability, with a one-year net value growth rate of 38.23% and an annualized tracking error of only 0.03% [2] - Analysts from Caixin Securities suggest that the combination of rising Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, demand for safe-haven and anti-inflation assets under fiscal expansion, and speculative capital returning are driving gold prices upward, with expectations that the price may reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-next year [2] Group 5 - In the context of a strong precious metals market, using tools like the E Fund Gold ETF allows investors to capture long-term opportunities in the precious metals sector while effectively mitigating individual stock volatility risks [3] - Investors are advised to allocate gold assets according to their risk tolerance to diversify investment portfolio risks and achieve relatively certain investment returns amid increasing global economic uncertainties [3]

另外，投资者还应密切关注国际贸易形势的最新动态。据最新消息披露，美国总统特朗普于当地时间周 四晚间郑重宣布："自2025年10月1日起，我将针对所有在世界其他地区生产的'重型（大型）卡车'加征 25%的关税。" 颇为耐人寻味的是，金价历经短暂下挫之后，旋即强势收复失地，最终实现收涨。究其原因，一股强劲 的"暗流"正悄然涌动——全球地缘政治局势持续紧张。以色列军队在加沙地区的军事行动不断升级，同 时对也门胡塞武装目标展开空袭，致使中东地区战火纷飞、局势动荡不安。尤为引人关注的是，欧洲外 交官向克里姆林宫发出严正警告，意味着北约已做好充分准备，将以武力应对俄罗斯侵犯领空的行为， 此举无疑将俄乌冲突的紧张态势推向了全新高峰。 与此同时，美国国内围绕政府可能停摆的议论声此起彼伏，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。恰是在这般 纷繁复杂的"乱世"环境之下，黄金作为避险资产的属性愈发凸显、光芒四射。尽管当前经济数据透露出 一定的鹰派倾向，然而却难以撼动市场对于降息的整体预期。"每当金价出现下行走势时，总有敏锐的 投资者选择逢低吸纳，以及大量寻求资产安全保障的避险资金涌入市场托底支撑，从而构筑起一道令金 价"跌无可跌"的坚实防线。 ...

专题：专题|刘纪鹏：A股"924"一周年，仍处价值洼地 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 9月25日，在"924"政策出台一周年之际，A股市场已逐步呈现慢牛态势。新浪证券特邀中国政法大学商 学院教授、资本市场知名专家刘纪鹏先生，为投资者带来深入解读>>视频直播 刘纪鹏明确表示，投资者应尽量避免借钱买股票。他指出，尽管券商普遍提供融资服务，例如为10万元 本金再配资10万元，但投资者需高度重视风险控制。"若是投资新手，尽量不要涉足杠杆；即便是熟悉 市场规则的投资者，也需严格把控融资比例，建议不超过本金的50%。"他强调，在当前四千点以下的 政策呵护区间内，市场整体风险可控，但仍需防范突发波动。若未出现单日暴跌300点之类的极端情 况，融资比例控制在50%以内较为稳妥。 改革和制度性政策的调整就怎么能够让全体股民都受益。对于资产配置，刘纪鹏指出中国经济高质量发 展需依靠科技创新，投资者应转变过去几年紧盯白酒板块的思路。"美国'七大科技巨头'中并无酒企， 依靠白酒无法实现民族复兴。"他认为高科技领域虽具备高成长潜力，但也伴随较高风险，投资者需具 备风险承受能力。他举例英伟达、 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector has emerged as a "star track" in global asset markets, with significant price increases across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, surpassing Bitcoin's performance [1][6] - Gold has reached a record high of $3784 per ounce, marking a 44% increase year-to-date, while silver and platinum have seen increases of 53% and 60%, respectively [1][3] - Palladium has also experienced a 33% rise, with its price at $1207 per ounce, although it remains lower than other precious metals [1][4] Group 2: Economic Factors Driving Demand - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising concerns over economic uncertainty and deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed economies, particularly the U.S. [3][4] - The U.S. federal debt has exceeded $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 130%, the highest since World War II, contributing to gold's appeal as a "safe-haven" asset [3][4] - Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, including potential interest rate cuts, have further fueled demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][8] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver and Platinum - Silver's price increase is driven by both its safe-haven appeal and its industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and electronics, with a projected 30% growth in global solar installations in 2024 [4][5] - Platinum's rise is linked to the automotive industry's recovery and environmental policies, with demand expected to increase due to its use in catalytic converters and hydrogen fuel cells [5][8] - The anticipated supply-demand gap for silver is projected to reach 120 million ounces in 2024, the highest in five years, supporting its price increase [4][5] Group 4: Bitcoin's Declining Appeal - Bitcoin, once considered "digital gold," has underperformed compared to precious metals, with a year-to-date increase of just over 20% [6][7] - The volatility of Bitcoin, including a maximum single-day drop of 15%, raises questions about its effectiveness as a safe-haven asset compared to gold's stability [6][7] - Regulatory uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrencies have also limited Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative investment [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Many institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of precious metals, with predictions of gold potentially exceeding $4000 per ounce by 2025 if economic conditions worsen [8] - Silver is expected to benefit from industrial demand, with prices potentially reaching $50 per ounce within a year [8] - However, potential risks include improved fiscal conditions in developed economies and central bank actions that could suppress precious metal prices [8]

Core Insights - The current market dynamics are heavily influenced by fear, leading to a significant influx of capital into safe-haven assets such as gold, bonds, high-quality equities, and cryptocurrencies [1][2]. Gold Market - Gold prices have shown a remarkable upward trend, increasing nearly +45% over the past ten months, from approximately $2,640 in late 2024 to a peak of $3,824 [2]. - The total market capitalization of gold has inflated by nearly $4 trillion recently, now exceeding $25.2 trillion, reflecting a substantial capital shift into this asset [4]. - This surge in gold's market cap indicates its role as a liquidity sponge, suggesting that institutional investors are preparing for potential economic turbulence [4]. Cryptocurrency Market - Despite the significant rise in gold, Bitcoin has maintained a steady position above $110,000, rebounding from a sharp dip on September 22 [2]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential, with predictions suggesting it could surge above $200,000, with a fair value estimated at $250,000 [5]. - The expanding global money supply, with M2 growing nearly +9% over the past year, positions Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary of this liquidity influx [6].

摘要今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3735.38美元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报3735.38美 元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向震荡走势。 就俄乌冲突而言，美俄两国外长于纽约举行会晤，双方基于此前阿拉斯加"普特会"达成的共识，再次重 申通过和平途径解决乌克兰危机的立场，并展现出协调行动以消除冲突根源的意愿。尽管俄罗斯明确反 对乌克兰及部分欧洲国家延长战事的政策主张，但会谈整体氛围仍透露出外交沟通渠道正在重建的迹 象。值得注意的是，特朗普近期对乌态度发生显著转变——从半年前质疑乌方军事优势的言论，转为在 国际场合公开赞扬乌军表现并讥讽俄方战略，这一措辞变化虽未伴随实质政策调整，却被解读为向普京 施压以推动协议达成的策略性举动，客观上有助于缓和紧张态势。 欧盟与美国就关税问题达成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have reached new highs, driven by multiple factors including changes in Federal Reserve policy, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 23, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,824.60, marking a historical peak [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen approximately 38% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is seen as a direct catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 75.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have consistently increased their gold holdings, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, accounting for about 20% of global gold demand [6]. - The World Gold Council reported that 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold as a safe haven [8][9]. - The U.S. defense budget has surpassed $1 trillion, raising concerns about an arms race and escalating geopolitical tensions, further enhancing gold's appeal as a defensive asset [9]. Group 5: Inflation Hedge - Current global inflation pressures highlight gold's strategic value as an important inflation hedge, with U.S. inflation rebounding to 2.9% in August [10]. - Historical data indicates that gold tends to perform well in environments where inflation exceeds 3%, reinforcing its attractiveness as a protective asset [10]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of gold is expected to grow at a stable, single-digit rate, while investment demand is rapidly increasing, contrasting with declining jewelry consumption [12][14]. - In the first half of 2025, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 397 tons, the highest for the same period since 2020, indicating a significant shift towards investment demand [12][14].

在此背景下，有市场分析人士表示，黄金仍在消化此前一天美联储的一些评论以及与俄罗斯的地缘紧张 局势，在一些经济数据出炉之前，短期市场情绪略显谨慎。 但从中长期来看，政治和经济不确定时期，作为避险资产的黄金更具吸引力。且随着美联储政策方向转 向宽松，黄金作为一种非孳息资产，在低利率环境下也往往会明显受益。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格下跌15美分，收于每盎司44.115美元，跌幅为0.34%，结算报44.192美 元。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 受重要通胀指标公布前的谨慎情绪影响，9月24日（周三），国际金价遭遇温和获利了结，震荡收跌。 当天，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价收盘较前一交易日下跌28.4美 元，收于每盎司3768.5美元，跌幅为0.75%，结算价报3768.1美元。 分析来看，由于美联储主席鲍威尔在前一天的讲话中强调"必须谨慎平衡顽固的通胀与就业市场放缓之 间风险"，这一表态没有给未来货币政策动向带来新的线索。同时，本周五将公布美国个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a record high of $3,766 per ounce, marking the 30th record-breaking event in 2025, while domestic gold prices have surged even more, reaching 854.50 yuan per gram, indicating a strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations [1][3][4]. Price Movements - The international gold price increased by nearly $3, or 0.08%, from the previous day [1]. - Domestic gold prices rose by 4.92 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.58% [3]. - The price of silver also saw an increase, with international silver priced at $44.11 per ounce, up 0.23%, while domestic silver reached 10.33 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.50% rise [3]. Market Dynamics - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has lowered the holding cost of gold, prompting investors to favor gold as a safe-haven asset [3][9]. - Geopolitical tensions and economic volatility are driving investors towards gold, which has historically been viewed as a safe harbor [3][9]. - The domestic gold price surge is influenced by the fluctuation of the yuan against the dollar, alongside a strong domestic investor sentiment towards gold [4][11]. Investment Trends - The gold futures market has seen a significant increase, with prices rising from 801.18 yuan on September 1 to 859.88 yuan, a gain of over 7% in less than a month [6]. - The gold recycling market is thriving, with current recycling prices at 836 yuan per gram, as many individuals are liquidating old jewelry [6]. - There is a notable divergence in consumer behavior, with some opting for gold bars while others are hesitant to purchase high-priced jewelry due to significant price differences [7][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has shown a cumulative increase of approximately 42% since the beginning of 2025, a rare occurrence in peacetime [7]. - Technical indicators suggest that while the market is currently overbought, the overall trend remains upward, with MACD indicators showing bullish signals [11]. - The narrow trading range of international gold prices indicates a potential buildup of market strength, possibly leading to further price movements [7]. Market Participation - The structure of market participants is evolving, with a mix of risk-averse funds, allocation funds, and speculative funds contributing to price volatility [11]. - The demand for physical gold is increasing, as evidenced by rising premiums on gold bars and jewelry, indicating robust market sentiment [11]. - The performance of gold mining stocks has improved due to rising gold prices, benefiting companies with effective cost control [9].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a moderate pullback on September 24, with the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closing at $3,768.5 per ounce, down $28.4, a decline of 0.75% [1] - The cautious sentiment in the market was influenced by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation with the risks of a slowing job market, providing no new insights into future monetary policy [1] - The upcoming release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also contributed to the cautious market sentiment, putting pressure on short-term gold prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63% on the same day, closing at 97.873, which limited further increases in gold prices [1] - Despite heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was a reaffirmation from both U.S. and Russian leaders to seek a peaceful resolution to the crisis [1] - Analysts noted that while short-term market sentiment is cautious, gold remains attractive as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty, especially as the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more accommodative policy [2]