到此为止，从4月2日特朗普所谓的"解放日"算起，一场为期40天的"数字游戏"以特朗普的让步收场，在关税水平从145%回落到10%之后，双方进入了实质性 的谈判阶段。 实际上，当美国把对华关税提升至145%之后，所有人都明白这场关税战已经"数字游戏"，因为145%和100%基本没有任何区别，包括美国财长贝森特在内的 许多业内人士都认为这是不可持续的，因为这不仅会打乱国际供应链，还会对美国本土的经济造成极大冲击。 以美国的主要出口产品石油和大豆为例，中国一直是美国最大的大豆出口市场，而在特朗普宣布"对等关税"的半个月内，美国对中国的大豆出口量下降了 67%，销售额直接遭遇了腰斩，导致许多相关的行业协会纷纷写信给白宫要求取消这一离谱的关税政策。 中美两国在瑞士的经贸谈判取得了怎样的成果？在这一个月的时间内，美国的经济遭受到了怎样的冲击呢？ 瑞士当地时间5月11日，中美两国在日内瓦结束了4月2日贸易战升级以来的首次双边谈判，原本外界以为激烈的拉锯战并未出现，仅仅经过了2天的谈判，双 方就已经在关税问题方面达成了初步协议。 根据双方会后发表的联合声明中来看，在特朗普当初宣布的34%的对华对等关税中，将只保留10%的基本 ...

此外，美联储背后是金融资本，他们与特朗普为首的"MAGA派"天然存在对立。在2011年，美国爆发了"占领华尔街"运动，很快从发生地纽约蔓延到全美多 地。虽然运动最终失败，但却对美国产生了深远影响，因为这是美国民众第一次清楚意识到，他们身上还有华尔街为首的"金融资本"这座大山，而美国的传 统掌权力量"建制派"与其关系很深。因此，美国民众有了推翻"建制派"，推选一个能代表自己的人上台的想法。在2018年，美国民众如愿以偿，让喊出"让 美国再次伟大"的特朗普入主白宫。 然而，特朗普和他的"MAGA派"并没有真才实干，他们能不进行市场调研，不准备预案，就直接发动"关税战"。显然，国际社会都清楚意识到特朗普政府非 常不靠谱，大量资金已经开始流出美国。鉴于白宫政策的不稳定性，以及特朗普阵营与金融资本的对立性，美联储自然不会听从特朗普的要求。而且，最好 的降息时机已经错过了。在2024年，美联储就实施了连续降息，因为当时还有操作空间。但特朗普上台后，态度反复无常，政策也是"朝令夕改"，这让鲍威 尔完全不敢有动作。而且，即便美联储什么举措都没做，美元指数也跌破了100。有观点指出，原本国际金融界普遍认为，美债超过50万亿美元 ...

中方给了美国两天时间，首轮会谈圆满结束，特朗普很高兴，全世界等来好消息，关税战可能要画上一个阶段性的句号了？ 美财长贝森特、美总统特朗普 美国的"服软"，来得比全世界想象得都更快。5月10日到11日，中美在瑞士进行本轮关税战开启以来的头一次官方的、正式的高级别接触。 在双方代表开这场闭门会议前，绝大多数人，其实都对中美究竟能谈成什么，是要打上一个问号的。 一方面，大家觉得，以特朗普的嘴硬程度，想让他轻易撤回针对中国商品加征关税的决定，简直难比登天。 特朗普一向是没有机会创造机会也要"赢"，至少口头上一定要说自己"赢"，服软的可能性微乎其微。 除此之外，最近，美国还在同时推动和英国、日韩、印度等多个国家推进关税谈判。如果这时候美国对中国做出了重大让步，那其他国家肯定也会有样学 样，让美国更加焦头烂额。 中美会谈 另一方面，从中国的角度来说，这一轮关税战，完全就是特朗普自导自演，然后自作自受。在美方没有"立正挨打"，明确承认错误，并在行动上削减关税之 前，中方始终寸步不让。 在见面之前，中方其实就已经把丑话说在了前面——我们这次同意跟美方代表见面，一个重要的原因，是回应"全球期待"。 说白了，虽然美国要搞贸易霸凌 ...

关税战暂缓期，关注经济压力 市场分析 国内：需求待改善。1）货币政策：一季度货币政策执行报告提出央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策；四部门提 出全方位支持科技创新，大力投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技。2）经济数据：4月社融增量1.16万亿元，新增人民 币贷款2800亿元，M2-M1剪刀差扩大。3）风险因素：中美联合声明，对4月2日以来的关税分别采取取消、暂停和 保留措施。 海外：关税缓冲期。1）货币政策：鲍威尔表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，美联储将对利率制定 框架调整；欧元区银行评估美联储在紧急情况下拒绝提供美元流动性的情况。2）经济数据：美国4月CPI同比2.3%； 4月PPI同比上涨2.4%；4月零售销售环比0.1%；4月财政预算盈余同比增长23%至2584亿美元。3）风险因素：特朗 普获卡塔尔1.2万亿美元"经济交换"承诺，沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元；印度提议对部分美国制造的产品征收 进口关税；伊朗称愿与美国达成协议。 策略 宏观周报 | 2025-05-18 512中美日内瓦联合声明显示两国之间的关税战进入到阶段性缓和阶段，有利于缓和经济压力。数据显示4月中国 CPI继续承压，信贷结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Trump and Walmart highlights the challenges faced by retailers due to high tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, and the pressure to maintain low prices while managing increased costs [1][3][5]. Group 1: Walmart's Pricing Strategy - Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon stated that despite efforts to keep prices low, the scale of tariffs makes it impossible to absorb all costs without raising retail prices [3]. - In response to tariffs, Walmart has requested Chinese suppliers to lower prices, but suppliers have refused due to already thin profit margins [3][5]. - The company is expected to subsidize some costs from its profits while passing the remainder onto American consumers through price increases [5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Supply Chain - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have created a situation where foreign suppliers cannot afford to sell at a loss, leading to inevitable price increases for consumers [5]. - The ongoing trade tensions have resulted in increased orders from U.S. buyers, indicating a shift in purchasing strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [5]. - The situation illustrates the limitations of Walmart's pricing power over suppliers, as excessive cost burdens cannot be entirely shifted to them [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The tariff conflict is expected to have significant repercussions on U.S. consumers, particularly in large supermarkets where product prices are likely to rise [7]. - The administration's approach to trade and tariffs may overlook the realities of consumer behavior and the economic impact on everyday goods [7]. - The situation reflects a disconnect between government policy and the practical implications for American households, as evidenced by the recent tensions between Trump and Walmart [7].

至于此次关税冲击对中国的影响，王一鸣认为，最直接体现在外贸方面，行业受影响比较大的是汽车零 部件、电子设备、纺织服装、耐用消费品等，涉及的地区主要是外向型经济区域。 中国也要对此有所准备。 在5月18日举办的2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、国务院发展研究 中心原副主任王一鸣谈及美国总统特朗普发起"关税战"的逻辑和动机时表示，相比第一任期，特朗普目 前面对着更加棘手的问题，包括美国制造业衰落、贫富差距过大、社会撕裂、财政赤字不断攀升，再加 上美国金融阶层的危机感和底层民众的失落感加剧，最终推动形成了一系列政策和行动。 王一鸣认为，特朗普发起"关税战"的背后逻辑可以大致归纳为三方面：一是重建美国制造业。特朗普认 为这事关国家安全，相比拜登政府以财政补贴吸引制造业回流的方式，特朗普政府更加简单粗暴，即想 用关税的方法推动制造业回流美国。 二是以关税收入缓解美国财政压力。去年美国债务高达36万亿美元，占GDP的比重达123%，美国的利 息支出已经超过了军费开支，同时特朗普还提出十年减税4.5万亿美元，而且希望把美国的财政赤字率 降到3%。 "这两个本来就矛盾，所以，在所得税、消费税难以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significance of Trump's Middle East visit, focusing on economic cooperation and substantial investments from Saudi Arabia to the U.S. [1] - Saudi Arabia has committed to investing $600 billion over the next four years, with plans to increase this to $1 trillion, covering sectors such as energy, defense, and technology [1] - A historic military sales agreement worth $142 billion was signed between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., encompassing five key areas including air force capabilities and missile defense [1] Group 2 - Trump's first visit to the Middle East comes after the imposition of global tariffs, which has led to significant market volatility and criticism from various political figures [2][4] - The article discusses the retaliatory measures taken by countries like India and the EU in response to Trump's tariff policies, indicating a broader impact on international trade relations [5][6] - The strategic importance of the Middle East is emphasized, as it serves as a global energy hub and a critical area for U.S. geopolitical interests [7] Group 3 - The Middle East is increasingly viewed as a strategic location for global enterprises, driven by its financial resources and energy reserves, with oil and gas accounting for nearly 60% of global supplies [10] - Economic growth in the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is projected to be robust, with GDP growth rates of 4.4%-5.3% and 4.9% respectively [10] - The region is undergoing economic diversification, with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reform plan aiming to reduce reliance on oil and promote sectors like renewable energy and digital economy [13] Group 4 - The demographic structure of the Middle East, with a significant portion of the population under 25, is driving new consumer trends in entertainment, e-commerce, and technology [14] - The e-commerce market in the region is expected to reach $82 billion by 2025, with a notable increase in online shopping during Ramadan [14] - Local e-commerce platforms like Souq and Noon are highlighted as key players in the market, alongside the growing presence of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [15]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the positive changes in US-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of bilateral talks and the potential for a more stable global economic environment [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Michael Spence noted that the US accounts for 25% of global GDP, with 13% of its imports coming from China and 15% of China's exports going to the US, indicating significant interdependence [1]. - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted consumer confidence in the US, which could lead to disastrous effects on the global economy if not addressed [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's primary tasks include managing employment and inflation, with current inflation pressures being influenced by supply and demand dynamics rather than just tariff impacts [2]. - Spence pointed out that while capital expenditures and tourism are declining, demand remains relatively stable, which could still contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Future of Global Trade System - Three potential scenarios for the future of the global trade system were discussed: a fragmented approach where countries act independently, a scenario where major powers exert their influence, and the most likely scenario where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets [2]. - Despite the current US government's anti-multilateral stance, Spence believes that a multilateral system could persist and even thrive without the US, with the possibility of the US rejoining in the future [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the United States' credit rating by Moody's, marking the first time all three major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. from its previous AAA status due to rising government debt and fiscal challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with a stable outlook, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [1][2]. - The downgrade is primarily attributed to increasing government debt and the rising proportion of interest payments relative to revenue [2][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Deficits and Debt Levels - The U.S. fiscal deficit has approached $2 trillion annually, with total nominal debt exceeding $36 trillion, representing over 6% of GDP, which is the highest in peacetime history [2][5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the country is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with projections indicating that the federal deficit could reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [5][7]. Group 3: Rising Interest Costs - High interest rates have led to increased debt servicing costs, with net interest expenditures expected to rise by approximately 130% by 2024 compared to 2019 levels [5][8]. - The average interest rate on outstanding U.S. debt is projected to be 3.324% in 2024, with total debt burden reaching 98% of GDP [5][8]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The trade war initiated by Trump has resulted in weakened economic conditions, leading to decreased consumer spending and increased corporate costs, which in turn affects government revenue and debt repayment capacity [8][11]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that proposed tax legislation could increase government debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, potentially reaching $5 trillion if certain temporary provisions are extended [8][12]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade announcement, the S&P 500 index ETF experienced a decline of over 1%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from 4.44% to above 4.48% [13][15]. - The article suggests that rising bond yields could lead to increased pressure on the U.S. government to address fiscal challenges, potentially impacting future economic policies [15].

Group 1 - The trade tariffs initially aimed at China have backfired, negatively impacting American farmers and companies like Tesla [1][3] - The chaotic tariff situation is severely harming the interests of American agricultural producers, particularly small farmers who have low risk tolerance [3][4] - U.S. poultry farmers are struggling as China, once their largest market, has reduced imports significantly [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean industry is facing devastating impacts due to tariffs, with over half of U.S. soybean production reliant on exports, primarily to China [12][14] - Brazilian farmers are benefiting from the situation as China shifts its soybean imports from the U.S. to Brazil, highlighting the competitive nature of agricultural exports [16][18] - The cost of beer cans has risen due to tariffs, leading to the closure of many small breweries, as they cannot absorb the increased costs like larger companies can [21][24] Group 3 - Despite recent talks leading to reduced tariffs, the impact on U.S. agriculture remains significant, with a 10% tariff still in place for low-value primary agricultural products [26] - Chinese manufacturers are adapting by shifting focus to domestic markets, with some companies experiencing increased sales despite the trade tensions [27][31] - The resilience of the Chinese market is evident as it continues to grow, even amidst tariffs, with exports to other countries compensating for losses in the U.S. market [34][37]