Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran provide a dovish perspective on the current monetary policy path, advocating for a quicker pace of interest rate cuts to address labor market pressures and suggesting that current inflation data reflects a "structural illusion" that should not delay easing measures [1]. Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - Miran attributes the rise in the September unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4% directly to the overly tight current monetary policy [3]. - He emphasizes that without timely interest rate reductions, persistently high rates will suppress corporate investment and hiring intentions, leading to further weakening in the labor market [3]. - Miran advocates for a series of 50 basis point cuts to bring rates down to neutral levels to support employment recovery [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Miran identifies two main factors contributing to the current elevated inflation data: an imbalance in the housing market driving up rental prices and the lagging effects of previous rate hikes [3]. - He argues that these factors are temporary and do not indicate substantial inflationary pressure, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can pursue rate cuts more aggressively without fearing runaway inflation [3]. Group 3: Asset and Balance Sheet Management - In addition to interest rate policy, Miran recommends a conservative approach to balance sheet management, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury holdings to maintain liquidity while reducing long-term bond and MBS holdings [3]. - He highlights the housing market as a critical channel for monetary policy transmission, noting that rate cuts would help lower mortgage rates and alleviate pressure in the housing market [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with December's potential rate cut being a focal point for the market [4]. - Miran's views reinforce a dovish stance, pushing for larger and faster rate cuts in response to labor market weakness, although concerns from hawkish members about inflation rebound persist [4]. - The ultimate direction of policy will depend on the balance between employment and inflation considerations [4].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,895, up 2.67% for the day and 29.09% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.01% for the day and 25.60% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.92% for the day and 15.46% year-to-date, reflecting positive sentiment in the Chinese market [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 1.89% for the day and 35.30% year-to-date, showing robust growth in the financial sector [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 3.24% for the day and 27.06% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in industrial stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 2.00% for the day and 24.95% year-to-date, suggesting recovery in the real estate market [2] Company Insights - Alibaba's 3Q revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with cloud business revenue surging by 34%, indicating strong demand [3] - Alibaba's management expects a significant reduction in losses from its instant retail business in 3QFY26, aligning with market expectations [5] - NIO's 3Q25 gross margin exceeded expectations, but the company lowered its 4Q25 sales guidance to 120,000-125,000 units, which is below market expectations [5][7] Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is declining, with expectations for a rate cut in December due to weakening economic data [6] - The US PPI rose by 0.3% in September, driven by energy price rebounds, but core PPI growth was only 0.1%, below expectations [6] - Japan's labor market remains tight, with a job-to-applicant ratio exceeding 1.8 and an unemployment rate at a low of 2.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3]

在声明中，委员会提到，9月季度消费者年度物价通胀率上升至3%，为货币政策委员会1%至3%目标区间的最高点。经济中仍有大量备用产能， 预计到2026年中期通胀率将降至约2%。自2024年8月以来，OCR的大幅下降预计将支持经济活动的复苏。 委员会指出，核心通胀和不可交易通胀均持续下降。由于汽油价格和食品通胀高企，9月年度可贸易商品通胀上升，但中期内预计将有所下降。 由于可交易商品通胀上升，加上家庭能源成本和地方议会税率的高通胀，年度总体CPI通胀上升。随着这些波动消散，预计整体CPI通胀将在2026 年中期回落至目标区间的2%左右。 新西兰的降息步伐仍在继续。 11月26日，新西兰联储宣布将官方现金利率（OCR）下调25个基点至2.25%。 这一决定符合市场普遍预期，在受访的36位分析师中，有32位此前已预测此次降息。 声明显示，委员会讨论了将OCR维持在2.5%和降低至2.25%两个选项。最终，委员会以5：1的投票，决定将OCR下调25个基点。委员会指出，降 低OCR有助于支撑消费者和企业信心，并抵消经济复苏速度比达到通胀目标所需的更慢的风险。OCR未来的走向将取决于中期通胀和经济的前景 变化。 | 0.56 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, US inflation data slightly rebounded, but consumer momentum significantly weakened. More Fed officials called for interest rate cuts, boosting market sentiment and leading to overnight gains in the three major US stock indexes. Domestically, the index is in a stage of oscillating recovery, but considering the recent shrinking trading volume in the market, it is expected to take some time for a phased recovery [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro**: The US consumer momentum is weakening. The US PPI in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, with four consecutive months of positive growth but a significant slowdown and lower than market expectations. Trump said his team made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the 28 - point peace plan is almost finalized [1]. - **Stock Index**: A - share three major indexes oscillated and rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%. The communication, media, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while only the national defense and military industry and transportation sectors closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly to 1.81 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.43% to 47112.45 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of stock index futures widened. The trading volume and open interest of IC increased simultaneously [2]. 2. Strategy - Overseas, the weakening US consumer momentum and more Fed officials' calls for interest rate cuts warmed market sentiment. Domestically, the index is in an oscillatory recovery stage, but due to the shrinking trading volume, it will take time for a phased recovery [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][10]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on November 25, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.77% [14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, with IC showing an increase in both trading volume and open interest [16][18]. - **Basis**: The basis data of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are given, and the basis has widened [40]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) for various combinations are provided, and the changes in spreads are also shown [49][50].

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce released the delayed retail sales data for September, showing a 0.2% increase in retail sales, which is lower than the 0.6% increase in August [1] - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline only grew by 0.1%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending momentum towards the end of Q3 [1] Retail Sales Performance - Out of 13 categories, 8 recorded growth, primarily driven by sales at gas stations, personal care stores, and miscellaneous retailers [1] - Motor vehicle sales experienced a decline for the first time in four months, while sales in electronics, clothing, and sporting goods also decreased [1] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - High-income consumers supported overall spending due to strong stock market performance, but low-income consumers showed signs of financial strain [1] - Rising prices and a weakening job market have made many shoppers more cautious, pushing consumer confidence close to historical lows [1] Federal Reserve Considerations - The income disparity among consumers has been a focal point for Federal Reserve officials [1] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve decision-makers regarding the possibility of another interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with investors currently believing that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is greater than that of no cut [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Bearish [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level range - bound [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level range - bound [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various metals including precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals. It assesses their market conditions based on macro - economic data, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market condition**: US data and Fed officials' statements support rate cuts, and the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is agreed upon, providing long - term support for gold. Silver has high elasticity and is favored by liquidity in 2025, with a significant increase of over 70% [1][2][3] - **Logic**: US economic data such as core PPI and retail sales support rate cuts; Fed officials advocate rate cuts; the Russia - Ukraine negotiation makes progress; in the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Strategy**: Long - term value allocation positions can be held, short - term trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the support level of domestic gold at 920 and silver at around 11500 [3] Copper - **Market condition**: The game between long and short is intense, with copper showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Overnight, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell [4][5] - **Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the TC of copper concentrates has declined. In October, China's imported copper concentrates increased year - on - year, but the production of electrolytic copper decreased. The global visible copper inventory is at a high level, with strong demand in the power and automotive sectors and weak demand in real estate and infrastructure [5] - **Strategy**: Do not chase high prices. Buy on dips during corrections. In the medium and long term, be bullish on copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper at [85500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market condition**: Zinc is under pressure and weak due to weak demand in the off - season [7] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has declined, and the profit of refined zinc enterprises is in deficit. In October, the production of refined zinc increased but was lower than expected. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [8] - **Strategy**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and weak. In the medium and long term, supply increases while demand decreases. Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **Market condition**: Aluminum prices face pressure during rebounds, and alumina shows a weak trend at a low level [10][11] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production and are expected to continue to cut production next March. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots is stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The demand shows a structural differentiation. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to increase, and the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [12] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term. Pay attention to the change direction of the social inventory of aluminum ingots, with the main operating range at [21000 - 21600] [13] Nickel - **Market condition**: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel shows a slight rebound [14][15] - **Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year is strengthened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and some smelters may cut production. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [16] - **Strategy**: Take profit on dips for nickel and stainless steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the inventory changes of downstream stainless steel, with the main operating range of nickel at [116000 - 119000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market condition**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and went high, with reduced positions and an increase of over 4% [18][19] - **Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, with upstream inventory further reduced and downstream inventory actively reduced to a reasonable range, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the terminal demand remains strong. However, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down [20] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the gap, and take profit on long positions in a timely manner within the range of [92800 - 97000] [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, highlighting his alignment with President Trump's economic views and the implications for monetary policy [2][3]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with strong support from Trump and his allies [2]. - Hassett has publicly stated that he would immediately lower interest rates if appointed, criticizing the Fed for allowing inflation to spiral out of control post-pandemic [2][3]. - Trump's decision on the nomination is expected to be announced before December 25, with speculation that Hassett's candidacy has been leaked intentionally [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The potential for a "dovish successor" to the Fed Chair has led to positive market reactions, with U.S. stock prices rising and a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields [6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized around 4.0018%, while the 2-year yield has dropped significantly, indicating a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, the nomination of the Fed Chair is a direct way for the President to influence the Federal Reserve, with Trump previously expressing regret over his appointment of Jerome Powell due to differing views on interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The next Fed Chair will serve a 14-year term starting February 1, with the current seat held by Stephen Miran, who is on unpaid leave [4].

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively rose, with the three major indices experiencing gains for the third consecutive trading day. The S&P 500 index increased by nearly 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1% [1][5] - Specific index performances included: Dow Jones at 47112.45 (+664.18, +1.43%), S&P 500 at 6765.88 (+60.76, +0.91%), and Nasdaq at 23025.59 (+153.58, +0.67%) [2][5] Federal Reserve Developments - The final interviews for the new Federal Reserve Chair candidates are expected to conclude soon, with Kevin Hassett being viewed as the frontrunner for the position [8][9] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the US economy requires significant interest rate cuts, indicating that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and contributing to rising unemployment [3][15] - Financial markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, which would lower the federal funds rate target range from 3.75% to 4% [15] Technology Sector Insights - Nvidia claimed its technology remains "a generation ahead of the industry," asserting it is the only platform capable of running all AI models across various computing scenarios [4][5] - Nvidia's stock faced a significant drop of over 7% before recovering slightly, closing down approximately 2.6%, marking a two-month low in market value [6] International Relations - Reports indicate that Ukraine has tentatively agreed to a peace agreement proposed by the US, although some terms are still under discussion [11][10] - The US and Ukrainian delegations have reached consensus on core terms of the peace agreement, with expectations for Ukrainian President Zelensky to visit the US soon to finalize the deal [11]

黄金在亚洲早盘小幅走高。现货黄金上涨0.2%，报每盎司4,139.03美元。据媒体报道，美国总统特朗普 的亲密盟友凯文·哈塞特已成为下任美联储主席的热门人选。澳新 银行的分析师在一份研究报告中称， 这位白宫国家经济委员会主任可能会将特朗普的降息做法带到美联储。降息对这种不计息的贵金属有 利。不过，这些分析师补充称，俄乌和谈取得的进展在一定程度上抵消了黄金的涨幅。 ...