特朗普：太晚了！鲍威尔总是迟到！但他在大选前并没有对拜登迟到，而是疯狂降息。 ...

巴西总统府首席部长科斯塔：巴西雷亚尔正在走强，食品通胀率正在下降；我们希望尽快降息。 ...

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Group 1 - The market is overly optimistic about the economic outlook, ignoring the negative impacts of unprecedented high tariffs, particularly on small businesses and inflation [1] - Multiple factors, including tariffs, a weak dollar, and potential demand slowdown, are impacting the inflation outlook, with tariffs expected to drive inflation higher in the second half of the year [1] - The labor market's ability to buffer against economic recession is weaker than in any period post-pandemic, with fewer job vacancies per unemployed person compared to 2021-2022 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal policy is creating a tug-of-war effect on economic growth, with both tariffs and fiscal measures raising inflation risks [2] - Inflation-protected assets, such as TIPS, appear relatively cheap, and could benefit if market sentiment shifts towards inflation concerns [2] - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast suggests a median expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut this year, but inflation pressures may lead to fewer cuts than anticipated [2]

【导读】澳洲联储将关键利率维持在 3.85% 不变，市场预期降息 25 基点 中国基金报记者 晨曦 意料之外，澳洲联储（ RBA ）最新宣布：不降息！ 7 月 8 日，澳洲联储货币政策委员会发布声明称，决定将现金利率目标维持在 3.85% 。该 次政策决定以多数票通过： 6 票赞成， 3 票反对。 今年 5 月，澳洲联储已经开启新一轮宽松周期，宣布降息 25 个基点。根据当月会议纪要， 决策层曾考虑一次性下调 50 个基点的可能性，反映出当时对全球不确定性与国内疲弱增长的 高度警惕。 近期，市场普遍认为 RBA 将再次下调现金利率 25 个基点，从 3.85% 降至 3.6% ，以应对 通胀减弱与内需疲软的局面。据海外调查显示， 37 位经济学家中有 31 位预测央行将降息 25 个基点。因此，此次澳洲联储选择维持现金利率在 3.85% ，出乎市场意料。 亦有分析师认为，连续降息之后， RBA 可能采取 " 观察 - 应对 " 的策略，以评估通胀与经 济反应的稳定性； RBA 不太可能在外部环境依然复杂、经济信号尚未明朗的情况下一次性释 放过多政策资源。若核心通胀企稳，消费活动改善， RBA 可能暂停宽松步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely keep the official cash rate unchanged in the July meeting, adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its dovish stance from the May monetary policy statement but will not provide strong guidance on the timing of any further rate cuts [1] - The bank predicts that the market will have the discretion to determine whether the Reserve Bank will implement a rate cut to 3% in August, delay it until later this year, or completely abandon the idea of a rate cut [1] - **Economic Indicators** - The Reserve Bank may indicate that economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 is stronger than expected, but subsequent indicators suggest a slowdown in economic momentum, aligning with the forecasts made in May [1] - There may be an emphasis on short-term inflation remaining at concerningly high levels [1]

澳洲联储主席布洛克：对未来进一步降息充满信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed trends, with gold prices showing volatility and silver prices slightly increasing amid ongoing tariff disturbances, which are gradually weakening compared to previous levels [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced new tariffs on several countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, with tariffs on imports from these countries set at 25% [2]. - Tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand will range from 25% to 40%, with an additional 10% for countries aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS nations [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, reaching a high of 97.65 during the day, closing at 97.51, influenced by the tariff announcements [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold initially fell below the $3300 mark but rebounded strongly, closing at $3336.35 per ounce, marking a slight increase of 0.04% [2]. - Spot silver closed at $36.74 per ounce, down 0.48% for the day [2]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish trend with support levels at $3305, $3296, and $3279, while resistance levels are at $3330, $3345, and $3365 [3]. - Silver is also showing a bullish trend with support at $36.3 and $36.1, and resistance at $36.7 and $36.9 [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Market participants are awaiting the release of the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June, which may influence precious metals [1].

近期利多利空分析 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20630，基差210，升水期货，偏多。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增342吨至94632吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空件；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 ...

4. 路透调查：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，37位经济学家中有31位支持降息，另有6位认为利率将维持不 变。 金十整理：机构前瞻澳洲联储利率决议——降息救经济刻不容缓，7月行动成市场共识 1. 西太银行：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，但并非板上钉钉。仍预计最终利率为2.85%。 2. 高盛集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，并将在8月和11月继续降息，终端利率料为3.1%。 3. 道富环球：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，目的是保障经济增长，目前通胀显然已经不在担心范围内。 7. 荷兰国际：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，预计年底利率将达3.1%。澳大利亚整体与核心通胀未来几个季 度有望维持在2-3%区间中值附近。 8. Pepperstone：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，由于二季度CPI数据尚未出炉，澳洲联储不会在声明中提供清 晰的关于多久达到中性利率的前瞻指引。 5. 凯投宏观：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，最近数据仍表明，澳大利亚经济倾向于下行，提前降息的理由 仍充分。 6. 瑞银集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，原因是经济活动的疲软以及通胀的缓和，8月也将继续降息以捍 卫经济。 ...