比特币（BTC）跌破111,000美元，走势与美国股市同步下挫。此前，美国劳工统计局（BLS）从就业数据中削减了911,000个岗位，创历史最大降幅。 美联储可能在美国就业数据疲软的背景下降息，这有望推动比特币（BTC）新一轮上涨。 比特币（BTC）在守住关键支撑位后，于楔形形态中反弹，目标指向129,000美元。 BTC/USD 日线价格图。来源：TradingView 随着美国经济衰退风险增加，比特币会进一步下跌吗？让我们来分析一下。 美国劳工统计局在2025年3月基准修订中，将私营部门岗位削减了880,000个，政府部门削减31,000个。失业率升至4.3%，8月雇主仅新增22,000个岗位，远低 于预期的75,000个。 核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀维持在2.9%，加大了经济衰退风险，除非美联储采取更宽松的货币政策。 债券交易员已押注美联储官员将在9月批准降息25个基点，截至周二概率升至92%。CME数据显示，到2025年底，可能还会有两次降息。 9月美联储会议的目标利率概率。来源：CME 市场评论员The Kobeissi Letter表示："美联储将在高通胀环境下降息，因为劳动力市场疲软，"并补 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 0.9%. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% [1] - In the U.S., August PPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first decline in four months, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%, which was below expectations [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the communication sector leading gains and the electric equipment sector lagging. The market turnover was 2 trillion yuan [2] - As of September 9, the financing balance increased by 5.952 billion yuan to 2.303495 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the fourth quarter [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the dual焦 (coke and coal) market, the main contracts showed strong performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions. The overall demand remains weak, but policy expectations may provide support [3][20] - The palm oil market is under pressure, with Malaysia's August palm oil production at 1.85 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35%, while exports decreased by 0.29% [22] Group 4: Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, launched a special campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on self-inspection by companies and reporting channels [6] - The automotive industry is under scrutiny for online misconduct, with measures to correct violations and expose problematic accounts [6] Group 5: International Relations - Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the need for stable U.S.-China relations and cooperation on global challenges [4]

自2023年达到4%的阶段利率峰值之后，欧央行随后降息8次，目前 存款机制利率 （Deposit facility rate）为2%， 主要再融资利率 （marginal lending facility rate）为2.4%。 | Date (with effect from) | | Deposit facility | Main refinancing operations | | Marginal lending facility Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Fixed rate | Fixed rate tenders Minimum bid rate | Variable rate tenders | | | 2025 | 11 Jun. | 2.00 | 2.15 | - | 2.40 | | 2025 | 23 Apr. | 2.25 | 2.40 | . | 2.65 | | 2025 | 12 Mar. | 2.50 | 2.65 | . | 2.90 | | 2025 | 5 Feb. | 2.75 | 2.90 | | ...

一位熟悉确认程序的参议院共和党助手向媒体透露，根据参议院复杂的规则，米兰最早可能在下周一获 得确认，从而获得次日美联储决议的出席资格。而在他宣誓就职前，留给其他必要步骤的时间已所剩无 几。 来源：第一财经 美国参议院最快或下周一对白宫经济顾问委员会主席的提名进行表决 当地时间周三，美国参议院银行委员会（Senate Banking Committee）以13票赞成、11票反对的结果，决 定将白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名提交给参议院全体会议审议。委 员会中的所有民主党议员均投票反对推进该提名，而所有共和党议员均投了赞成票。这意味着米兰距离 出任美联储理事只剩最后一步，这也是美国总统特朗普试图影响美联储政策的关键人事安排。 最后冲刺 按照流程安排，米兰将填补库格勒（Adriana Kugler）未完成的任期至2026年1月。库格勒于今年8月初 意外离任，她此前一直主张维持利率稳定，以防止通胀反弹。 米兰计划在美联储任职期间，从白宫停薪留职，这一做法从历史上看极为罕见。本周早些时候，米兰在 给国会议员的一封信中表示，若在其任期结束前仍未任命继任者，他将 "重新评估" 这一 ...

2025.09. 11 本文字数：1581，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周三，美国参议院银行委员会（Senate Banking Committee）以13票赞成、11票反对的 结果，决定将白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名提交给参议院全 体会议审议。 委员会中的所有民主党议员均投票反对推进该提名，而所有共和党议员均投了赞成 票。这意味着米兰距离出任美联储理事只剩最后一步，这也是美国总统特朗普试图影响美联储政策的 关键人事安排。 最后冲刺 一位熟悉确认程序的参议院共和党助手向媒体透露， 根据参议院复杂的规则，米兰最早可能在下周 一获得确认，从而获得次日美联储决议的出席资格。而在他宣誓就职前，留给其他必要步骤的时间已 所剩无几。 共 和 党 人 对 米 兰 提 名 的 推 进 速 度 是 前 所 未 有 的 ， 咨 询 机 构 货 币 政 策 分 析 （ Monetary Policy Analytics）的政策经济学家唐（Derek Tang）表示，在过去十年中，总统从宣布提名到参议院最 终投票的最短时间为60天。如果米拉的提名在下周一获得通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. strengthens the rationale for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][12]. Group 1: PPI Data Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decline since April, while year-over-year, it increased by 2.6% [3]. - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs decreased by 0.2% [8][10]. - The report indicates that despite higher costs from tariffs, companies refrained from significant price increases due to concerns about consumer behavior amid economic uncertainty [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the PPI data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury prices rose, reflecting market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts [8][12]. - The decline in inflation expectations has led to a significant drop in two-year Treasury yields and a weakening of the dollar [12]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The extent to which companies pass on tariff burdens to consumers will be crucial in determining the direction of interest rates this year [9]. - Federal Reserve officials anticipate that import tariffs will elevate inflation through 2025, but the nature of this impact—whether temporary or persistent—remains undecided [9]. - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will provide insights into how much of the August tariffs have been transmitted to American households [9].

智通财经APP获悉，美国8月批发通胀意外出现四个月来首次下滑，这为美联储降息提供了更多依据。 美国劳工统计局周三公布的数据显示，生产者价格指数(PPI)环比下降0.1%，且7月的数据向下修正。同 比来看，该指数上涨2.6%。 美国劳工统计局表示，8月服务价格的下降，有四分之三可归因于机械和汽车批发业务的利润率下降 3.9%。与此同时，剔除食品和能源后的制成品消费价格创下2月以来的最快涨幅，这在一定程度上得益 于烟草产品价格的飙升——美国劳工统计局称，烟草价格上涨是推动商品价格走高的"主要因素"。 定于周四发布的消费者价格数据，将揭示8月关税在多大程度上影响了美国家庭。预测人士预计，剔除 食品和能源后的核心消费者价格指数将再次呈现较高月度涨幅。 降息预期 市场普遍预计，政策制定者将在下周的会议上决定降息，以应对劳动力市场的快速放缓。美联储主席鲍 威尔上月在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上，谨慎地为降息"打开了大门"，而近期发布的更多数据显示，就业 增长放缓的趋势已延续至8月。 经济学家高度重视PPI报告，因其部分分项指标用于计算美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格 指数(PCE)。8月，这些相关指标呈现出涨跌互现的态 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that developed and emerging markets experienced gains during the week of September 1 to September 5, 2025, with emerging markets rising by 1.4% and developed markets by 0.3% [1] - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.2%, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect gained 1.5%. The healthcare and materials sectors led the gains [1] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a volatile upward trend, requiring new momentum for further increases, particularly in technology and internet leading companies [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous month's revised figure of 79,000 [2] - The report notes that Broadcom's AI ASIC revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a projected 63% revenue growth rate expected to continue for the next ten quarters, driven by a significant order of $10 billion from a new client [2] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. stock market is likely to experience increased volatility in the short term, with the potential for interest rate cuts in September depending on economic data [3] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on small-cap stocks and interest rate-sensitive growth stocks during the interest rate cut cycle, as these sectors are expected to benefit from improved earnings and liquidity [4] - It is noted that the macroeconomic fundamentals in the U.S. are slowing but not in a recession, with stable wage income supporting consumption and nominal growth [4] - The report anticipates that the AI narrative in the U.S. stock market will continue to gain traction in the medium to long term, supported by ongoing technological advancements and policy measures [4] Group 4 - The report indicates that global stock ETF inflows have slowed, with a net inflow of $13.094 billion and marginal outflows of $22.679 billion, while bond ETFs also saw reduced inflows [7] - It highlights that the U.S. stock ETF saw the highest net inflow of $6.57 billion, followed by Europe, while emerging markets, particularly China, experienced significant inflows [7] - The report identifies technology, materials, and financial sectors as the top three industries for net inflows, while utilities saw the most significant outflows [7]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August in the U.S. is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, maintaining the same growth rate as July [1][3] - Market expectations indicate a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points in September, with a 50 basis point cut becoming more probable [1][4] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to have a limited impact on the dollar prior to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] PPI and CPI Overview - The PPI report, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is set to be released on Wednesday, a day earlier than the CPI report [3] - PPI measures wholesale or producer-level inflation, while CPI focuses on the total value of goods and services purchased by consumers [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 3.5% year-over-year, down from 3.7% in the previous month [3] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, market participants have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut stands at 88.2%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is at 11.8% [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole symposium have significantly influenced market expectations regarding potential rate cuts [4][5] Currency Market Implications - The PPI report is expected to influence the euro/dollar exchange rate, with current trading above the 1.1700 mark [5] - Analysts suggest that if the euro/dollar breaks below the support level of 1.1700, it may test buyer resolve around 1.1650 [5] - The euro/dollar may not see further increases post-PPI release, but could rise following the CPI data release, with a key level to watch at 1.1900 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is increasingly volatile, with geopolitical factors and trade tensions impacting recovery momentum, leading to a surge in gold prices to historical highs [2] Economic Outlook - Despite a complex global environment, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with stable growth expectations for 2025 at 1.8% and 2026 at 1.7% [3][5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations, indicating a slowdown in both labor supply and demand [3][6] Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs have created cost pressures but have limited overall impact on inflation, with a moderate price increase observed as companies do not fully pass costs to consumers [4][5] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately by the end of the year, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index projected to exceed 3% [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December, with potential for further cuts if labor market conditions worsen [6][7] - The market is currently optimistic about a soft landing for the global economy, with 68% of fund managers expecting this outcome [6] Bond Market Insights - The yield curve is experiencing a bull steepening, driven by real interest rate compression, with nominal rates influenced by inflation expectations [7] - The focus on the debt ceiling may impact U.S. Treasury yields, with a dovish Fed stance likely to support mid-term inflation expectations [7] Gold Price Projections - Gold prices are projected to reach $3,750 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by fiscal conditions and potential rate cuts in a high inflation environment [8] Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on dollar, cash, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and healthcare sectors, while being cautious on stocks and emerging markets [9] - Fixed income strategies are shifting towards longer-duration assets, with a positive outlook on agency MBS and investment-grade corporate bonds [10]