锦泰期货分析指出，近期美联储官员讲话均偏向鸽派，同时特朗普对于新任联储主席的选拔进行进一步 表态，市场对于后续联储宽松货币政策的预期增强，金银价格得到支撑。展望未来，非农和经济数据走 弱带来的经济担忧以及降息预期反弹仍有定发酵空间，预计黄金价格仍有进一步反弹可能。 美国总统特朗普周四表示，将提名白宫经济顾问委员会米兰临时出任美联储理事会成员，以填补空缺。 澳新银行分析师在报告中称，米兰是特朗普关税政策的设计者，市场认为这一任命意味着货币政策将更 趋鸽派。 8月7日，受美国经济下行压力加大及美联储近期鸽派论调催化，金价连续走强，COMEX黄金期货价格 盘中触及3483美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%报3482.70美元/盎司，8日亚市早盘，COMEX 黄金期货再度刷新历史新高，达3534.10美元，目前交投于3510美元附近。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's nomination of his camp members as "temporary" Fed governors will impact the Fed's independence in the short - term, supporting gold and silver prices [2] - Trump's appointment of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor and the rising probability of Waller becoming the new Fed chair, along with lower - than - expected employment data, make it certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [2][3] - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 777 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.26% to 785.44 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.43% to 9241.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.99% to 3488.00 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.93% to 38.65 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 98.00 [2] - For gold, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 3482.70 dollars/ounce, up 1.48%; the trading volume was 24.34 million lots, up 69.43%; the open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%. For silver, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 38.53 dollars/ounce, up 1.57%; the open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93% [6] Market Outlook - Trump's personnel appointments put strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence, and combined with poor employment data, the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] Investment Strategy - Recommend buying precious metals on dips, with the reference range for Shanghai gold's main contract being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and for Shanghai silver's main contract being 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fed officials' dovish remarks and Trump's influence on Fed personnel appointments increase market expectations for further loose monetary policies, which support the prices of gold and silver [2][3] - Given Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the significantly lower - than - expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 8885 - 9390 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - On August 6, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.29% to 781.96 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.22% to 9180.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.02% to 3432.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.22% to 37.99 dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the US dollar index was 98.19 [2] - Various precious - metal related data, such as the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [4] Market Outlook and Policy Analysis - Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly, Fed Governor Cook, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, made dovish remarks, believing that the labor market has weakened and that the Fed may need to start adjusting interest rates soon [2] - Trump's team is promoting the appointment of an interim director for the vacant Fed seat, and Trump will announce the candidate within two to three days. Two "Kevin"s are in the running [3] Data Table and Chart Analysis - A table shows the key data summary of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, etc., and their daily changes and year - on - year historical quantiles [7] - Multiple charts display the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [21][22][53]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **U.S. economy**, particularly the **employment market**, **inflation**, and **monetary policy** implications due to recent economic data and political influences [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Weakness** - The U.S. employment market shows signs of fatigue, with a rising unemployment rate and a significant downward revision of previous job growth figures, leading to an average of only **50,000 new jobs** added over the past three months [2][6]. - The labor participation rate changes contribute to the overall weakness in supply and demand within the job market [2]. 2. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - Market expectations for a rate cut in Q4 have surged, with a **95% probability** of a **25 basis point** cut before October, driven by the weak employment and inflation data [1][2]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on the real estate and manufacturing sectors [5]. 3. **Inflation Trends** - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, prices of goods heavily reliant on imports, such as furniture and appliances, have risen significantly [3]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is projected to increase from **16.5%** to **17.5%**, which may further elevate inflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** - Political pressures for looser monetary policy are increasing, especially with the potential for new Federal Reserve board members who may favor rate cuts [5]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will significantly influence the market's pricing of September rate cut expectations [5]. 5. **Consumer Spending Dynamics** - Consumer spending constitutes **70%** of the U.S. economy, with high-income households showing resilience in their spending habits [6]. - Fixed-rate loans dominate the debt landscape, minimizing the impact of the current rate hike cycle on overall consumer debt pressure [6]. 6. **Economic Outlook** - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "very good" state to a "not so good" state, indicating a slowdown but not an imminent recession [7]. - The narrative around the economy remains unchanged, with expectations of a gradual weakening rather than a linear decline into recession [7]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest more clearly in the data by October, as inventory replenishment continues in various sectors [3][4]. - The sensitivity of middle and low-income groups to price changes may mitigate inflation transmission pressures compared to previous years [4].

谁是下一任美联储主席？特朗普最新讲话透露重磅信号！ 据央视新闻，当地时间8月5日，特朗普可能很快宣布美联储新任主席，美联储理事的人选决定将于本周 末做出。 此前，前美联储理事凯文·沃什、白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、财政部长贝森特、美联储理事 克里斯托弗·沃勒都在特朗普的考虑范围内。 这进一步明确了下任美联储主席的竞争格局。除了"两个凯文"之外，第三名候选人据悉很可能是现任美 联储理事沃勒，第四名候选人身份尚未披露。 不过，报道援引知情人士透露，投资公司Azoria首席执行官James Fishback周一（8月4日）曾与特朗普 通话，推荐自己担任临时美联储职位。 与此同时，特朗普计划在本周末前确定美联储理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的继任者，这一任命不仅 可以影响短期货币政策，还可能成为未来美联储主席人选的预演。 "两个凯文"领跑主席竞争 特朗普明确提及的两位候选人均名为凯文。 哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）目前担任特朗普的经济顾问，在特朗普第一任期内曾担任白宫经济顾问委员会 主席，对特朗普的经济政策理念十分熟悉。 沃尔什（Kevin Warsh）则是前美联储理事，在2006年至20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, as indicated by Trump's recent statements, highlighting a narrowed list of four candidates and the implications of these appointments on monetary policy [2][3][12]. Candidate Analysis - Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to four individuals, explicitly excluding Scott Bessent from consideration [3][8]. - The two leading candidates are Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's economic advisor, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor known for his moderate hawkish stance during his tenure [4][5]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is likely to be the third candidate, with his recent voting behavior aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [5][12]. - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [6][7]. Implications of Appointments - The appointment of a new Fed governor, which Trump plans to finalize soon, could significantly influence short-term monetary policy and potentially set the stage for the next Fed Chair [13][14]. - Trump's strategy may involve selecting a candidate who could take over from Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, allowing the new appointee to influence policy discussions in the interim [13].

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce the new Federal Reserve Chair soon, with a decision on the candidates to be made this weekend [1][4] - The potential candidates have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [2][3] - The leading candidates include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Christopher Waller likely being the third candidate [5][6] Candidate Analysis - Kevin Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and has a strong understanding of Trump's economic policies [5] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is known for his moderate hawkish stance and has a reputation on Wall Street [5][7] - Christopher Waller recently voted against a policy and supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [6][7] Additional Candidates - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback has expressed interest in the position [4][8] - There are indications of another candidate being discussed, as noted by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [8][12] Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future monetary policy discussions [15] - The new appointee could potentially be positioned to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman as indicated by Trump's recent statements, highlighting a narrowed list of four candidates and the implications of upcoming appointments on monetary policy [1][2][3]. Candidate Analysis - Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Fed Chair to four, excluding Scott Bessent, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett being the leading candidates [2][4]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, is recognized for his moderate hawkish stance and experience during the financial crisis, while Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and familiar with his economic policies [5]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is likely to be the third candidate, aligning with Trump's preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [6][8]. - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [9][12]. Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to influence short-term monetary policy and could serve as a precursor to the next Fed Chair selection [3][21]. - The new appointee's term lasts until January, but they may be positioned to influence policy discussions leading up to Powell's term expiration in May [21][22]. - Trump suggested that selecting a candidate who could lead the Fed directly would allow for immediate influence on policy debates [22]. Candidate Odds - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessent at 1% [19].

Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [1] - The two leading candidates are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, the current economic advisor to Trump [2] - A potential third candidate is Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, who has expressed support for interest rate cuts [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Fishback has previously worked as an advisor in the government and is seeking to provide relevant information for consideration [3] - There is speculation about another candidate not yet discussed, as indicated by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [3] Group 3 - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by the undisclosed candidate at 28%, while Hassett has risen to 22% and Waller to 15% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions [10] - The new appointee could potentially be a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [10]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowed down by Trump to four individuals, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet [1] - The two leading candidates mentioned are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's economic advisor [2] - A third candidate likely to be considered is current Fed governor Christopher Waller, who has expressed views aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of a fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Polling data indicates that Warsh has a 29% chance of being selected, with an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessenet at 1% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Fed governor Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions and potentially set the stage for the next Fed Chair [10]