贵金属日报 2026-01-09 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2026-01-08 2026-01-07 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2026-01-08 2026-01-07 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | 4487.90 | 4467.10 | 上涨 | 0.47% | 98.01% | | 成交量 | | 万手 | 19.19 | 19.71 | 下跌 | -2.63% | 46.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 48.19 | 49.21 | 下跌 | -2.08% | 58.49% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1132 | 1132 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decision by OPEC to cut production may limit the short-term decline in oil prices, while long-term futures contracts could see significant drops due to anticipated supply increases [1] - The impact of Venezuela's heavy crude oil entering the market will take time, potentially years, which may result in less influence on near-term contracts [1] - Global market reactions to the unstable situation in Venezuela have been relatively stable so far, with future developments largely dependent on U.S. intervention and responses from other major oil-producing countries [1] Group 2 - Venezuela's oil production has decreased from over 3 million barrels per day to below 1 million barrels, while U.S. production stands at 13 million barrels per day [1] - Despite Venezuela not being a major oil exporter, concerns over potential commodity impacts may lead to continued oil price volatility [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions are expected to be minimally affected by the situation, but a decline in oil prices could help alleviate current inflation issues and create conditions for looser monetary policy, which would be a positive signal for the stock market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing instability in Venezuela, global market reactions have been relatively stable so far, with future market movements largely dependent on the extent of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, responses from other major oil-producing countries, and potential volatility in the energy market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The global market's response to the Venezuelan situation has been stable, indicating resilience amid geopolitical tensions [1] - Historical data suggests that geopolitical events rarely have a long-term impact on market performance [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Uncertainty surrounding the Venezuelan situation may influence the direction of long-term government bond yields, potentially leading to stock market fluctuations [1] - A decline in oil prices, if it occurs, could lower gasoline prices, alleviating current inflation issues and possibly creating conditions for more accommodative monetary policy [1] - Under unchanged conditions, this scenario would be a positive signal for the stock market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in zinc prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 23975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan or 1.36% from the previous day [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract decreased by 35924 lots to 151811 lots, while open interest fell by 7852 lots to 83751 lots [1] - The average price for domestic spot zinc was reported at 24200 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan, with similar declines observed in other grades of zinc [1] Group 3 - On the macroeconomic front, mixed signals from the US labor market and service sector indicators have led to expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly those stemming from Trump, have created uncertainty, leading to a withdrawal of long positions and a decline in international oil prices, which in turn negatively impacted zinc prices [2] Group 4 - Zinc ore supply remains tight, with low processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate and a shortage of domestic ore supply [3] - Despite reduced demand from smelters due to maintenance and production cuts, the processing fees for zinc ore have shown signs of stabilization [3] - The overall market sentiment has turned bearish, with expectations of high-level adjustments in zinc prices in the short term [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations are swinging back and forth. After a series of important domestic meetings and the Fed's return to a "restrictive" stance in December, there are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad, with asset sentiment deviating from the macro situation. Future commodity prices will be determined by supply - side risks and loose monetary policies due to global geopolitical instability [1]. - There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December returned to the expansion range [2]. - For commodity investment, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are also opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for price increases. In the energy sector, pay attention to the growth expectation of crude oil supply after the US "temporary management" of Venezuela. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of some varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations are unstable. After the Central Economic Work Conference in December and the 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference in January, there are uncertainties in domestic and foreign policies. The Fed has internal differences. Geopolitical tensions during the New Year's Day holiday have increased supply - side risks for commodities [1]. - On January 7, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain was active, and the coal sector had a strong performance. In the commodity futures market, many contracts such as nickel, coke, and coking coal reached the daily limit [1]. Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's November foreign trade growth rebounded. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs returned to the expansion range. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but were still weak, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high [2]. Commodity Investment - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Among non - ferrous metals, aluminum is a good choice. In the energy sector, pay attention to the situation in Venezuela and Iran. In the chemical industry, focus on the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices, but short - term silver risks have increased [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [4]. Key News - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month in December. On January 8, the central bank carried out a 1.1 trillion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation. The US Supreme Court will rule on the tariff issue on January 9. Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and industry trends, indicating a strong market sentiment and geopolitical risk premium [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 experienced a significant increase, opening at 348,300 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 364,240 CNY/ton, and closing at 359,050 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 18,180 CNY or 5.33% [1]. - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 15,200 CNY from the previous day, with current prices ranging from 356,500 CNY/ton to 358,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a significant decline in Myanmar's tin production, which has dropped by 87% from its peak in 2018, and a projected 85% decrease in exports to China from January to October 2025 [2]. - Global tin inventories are at historical lows, with LME stocks at only 5,420 tons, creating a challenging supply gap [2]. - On the demand side, while traditional electronics are in a seasonal downturn, the explosive growth in AI server construction and photovoltaic installations is driving a surge in demand for high-grade tin solder and welding materials [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies in the tin industry are showing strong performance, with Tin Industry Co. reporting a 35.99% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, entering the top 500 listed companies in China [2]. - Other companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Zijin Mining are also experiencing significant stock price increases and strategic resource collaborations, reflecting the industry's high growth potential [2]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The current spot market is exhibiting characteristics of "high price with low trading volume," where high prices are significantly suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, leading to transactions primarily driven by rigid demand [3]. Group 5: Short-term Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to maintain a high oscillation range of 350,000 to 359,000 CNY/ton, with potential corrections if Myanmar's production exceeds expectations or macroeconomic policies change [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the domestic important meetings and the Fed's return to the "restrictive" stance, there is a risk of the policy expectations at home and abroad swinging back, and the asset sentiment deviates from the macro situation. Attention should be paid to the specific domestic policy announcements and Trump's announced candidates for the Fed Chair [1] - Since October, there has been a certain divergence in the domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The overseas economic outlook has been continuously declining, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, while the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] - Currently, focus on the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors with high certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunities for low - valued commodities to catch up. In the energy sector, focus on the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela, and also pay attention to the situation in Iran. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing back. After the central economic work conference and the 2026 PBOC work conference, the directions of boosting consumption and promoting "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions may affect asset prices. On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days, reaching a new high in more than a decade [1] Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - There is a divergence between domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic outlook has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, and the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. In the non - ferrous sector, aluminum is a preferred choice. In the energy sector, focus on the US - Venezuela situation and the Iran situation. In the chemical sector, pay attention to methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips. On January 6, many commodity futures had significant price increases [3] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - The 2026 PBOC work conference emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days. The US December ISM manufacturing index fell. There were developments in the Venezuela situation. Many commodity prices reached new highs or had significant increases [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements boost market expectations for loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction" in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle. The Trump administration has a motivation for further loose fiscal policies, and the Fed will enter a more radical interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down. Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance in precious metals trading, not to open new long or short positions, and to be aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 940 - 1024 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 15340 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.81% to 1008.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.87% to 19820.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 81.22 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.59 [1] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For COMEX Gold on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4505.70 US dollars/ounce (up 1.03% from the previous day), the trading volume was 16.72 million lots (down 19.29% from the previous day), the position was 48.19 million lots (down 2.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 1132 tons (unchanged). For LBMA Gold, the closing price was 4490.35 US dollars/ounce (up 0.76% from the previous day). For SHFE Gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.00% from the previous day), the trading volume was 30.81 million lots (up 61.30% from the previous day), the position was 31.85 million lots (up 1.83% from the previous day), the inventory was 97.70 tons (unchanged), and the settled funds were 512.11 billion yuan (up 2.85% from the previous day). For AuT+D, the trading volume was 44.25 tons (up 0.55% from the previous day), and the position was 198.82 tons (down 4.66% from the previous day) [4] - For COMEX Silver on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 81.22 US dollars/ounce (up 6.16% from the previous day), the position was 15.74 million lots (up 1.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 13972 tons (down 0.07% from the previous day). For LBMA Silver, the closing price was 78.48 US dollars/ounce (up 4.54% from the previous day). For SHFE Silver, the closing price of the active contract was 19452.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.60% from the previous day), the trading volume was 289.63 million lots (up 168.34% from the previous day), the position was 68.26 million lots (up 6.92% from the previous day), the inventory was 581.44 tons (down 13.16% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 358.48 billion yuan (up 13.98% from the previous day). For AgT+D, the trading volume was 876.64 tons (up 33.34% from the previous day), and the position was 2993.51 tons (up 1.77% from the previous day) [4] Price - Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [7][8][10][15][20][21][25][27][29][39][44][46][51][52][54]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 13-day winning streak, reaching a 10-year high, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) rising by 1.8% and attracting nearly 14 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The current period is seen as a critical buildup phase for the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations of continued loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies in China until 2026, which may lead to a further recovery in total demand [1] - Globally, fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and Japan are progressing simultaneously, contributing to gradual improvements in demand [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The CSI A500 Index, with its overweight in advanced manufacturing, information technology, communications, pharmaceuticals, and raw materials, is positioned to deliver relative returns during the economic recovery phase [1] - Compared to the CSI 300, the CSI A500 emphasizes industry balance and leading companies in specific sectors, offering a more diversified style and higher growth exposure, which can provide a better Beta base during the industrial structure upgrade cycle [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of December 31, 2025, the CSI A500 Index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13% [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest among its peers, being more than three times that of the second-ranked product, indicating a growing interest from investors [1]

格隆汇12月31日｜得益于美联储降息以及AI投资热情大幅上升，2025年全球股市有望实现六年来的最 大年度涨幅。2025年仅剩最后一个交易日之际，MSCI全球股票指数今年已上涨21%。其中亚洲市场股 票预计将连续第三年上涨，势创2017年以来最佳涨幅。2025年，股票价格涨至历史最高点，因对经济增 长、企业盈利以及宽松货币政策的乐观预期推动了市场从4月份特朗普关税引发的下跌中反弹。然而， 在进入2026年之际，投资者面临着较高的估值水平，同时政策制定者之间在进一步放宽政策的范围上也 出现了分歧。帕尼克斯资产管理集团首席投资官阿曼达·阿加蒂周二表示，"要想在明年继续走高，股市 需要一个温和的美联储。"展望新的一年，投资者们有理由保持乐观：过去10年里，MSCI全球股票指数 在1月份的平均涨幅为1.4%，其中有6次实现了上涨。 ...