2025年，美国特朗普政府推动的"对等关税"政策，无声地改写了全球货品贸易秩序，也暗中牵动了服务 贸易的板块位移。 旅游业作为服务贸易的重要组成，在商品价格上涨、可支配所得下滑、国际信任流失的多重压力下，亦 感受到了地壳般的震荡。 从本质看，这场关税战对美国而言，既是应对急速膨胀的38万亿美元联邦国债的缓兵之计，也是国内财 政收入的短期补充工具——最终，特朗普选择以激烈的方式应对结构性赤字问题。 在这场全球经济震荡中，旅游业虽非直接涉入货物贸易，却无可避免地被波及。海择资本基于此，提出 以下观察。 在内外夹击下，美国旅游业增长放缓已成必然，而从震央扩散的震荡，正快速向全球延伸。 远距共振：全球旅游业受创 美国旅游业： 震央的初波冲击 对等关税政策直接针对的是货品贸易，但随之而来的连锁效应，迅速渗透至美国服务贸易中旅游业的各 个环节。 酒店、航空器、车辆及设施维护成本的上升，使得酒店建设、景区维护、交通运输等基础设施的资本开 支同步上扬，这种成本推升最终将透过票价、住宿费用、旅游服务价格，回到消费者身上。 不仅如此，非旅游消费品同样因原料与物流成本上升而价格飙涨，进一步侵蚀了民众的可支配所得。 耶鲁大学Budg ...

复盘历史可知，全球范围内的大规模加征关税会对全球贸易造成显著冲击。 1929年后，全球经济渐次步入衰退。在此情形下，保护本国就业，让农民免受外国竞争的影响，成为美国政府的首要目标。基于此，胡佛政府推动关税法案 自1929年起在国会开启听证与投票程序，历经一番过程，《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》最终于1930年6月正式落地。 《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》将美国超过两万种进口商品的关税大幅提高，其关税水平跃至历史第二高，仅次于1828年的关税水平。关税法案出台后，美国主 要贸易伙伴迅速做出反应，英国、加拿大、日本等国纷纷采取相关反制措施。在这些举措的共同作用下，美国与各主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易额均大幅下 滑。与此同时，全球贸易额也呈现持续收缩的态势，国际贸易环境急剧恶化。 从关税法案的具体影响来看，1929—1933年，全球贸易额减少了29.7%，且在关税法案出台的10年后全球贸易额仍未修复到1929年的水平。主要贸易伙伴方 面，1929—1933年，美国从加拿大、德国、英国和日本等国家的进口额均减少超过50%，其间对这些国家的出口额也至少缩减30%。直到1934年，民主党政 府颁布了《互惠贸易协定法》，允许总统在未经国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price has experienced a significant decline since April, primarily driven by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase production, raising concerns about a potential global economic recession [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Decline - The WTI oil price dropped from $71.71 per barrel on April 2 to $59.58 per barrel on April 8, while Brent oil fell from $74.95 to $62.82 in the same period [3][4]. - As of April 25, WTI was priced at $63.02 per barrel and Brent at $66.87 per barrel [3]. - The "reciprocal tariff" policy has heightened fears of a shrinking global trade and economic downturn, impacting oil demand [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Side Changes - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 410,000 barrels per day for May, significantly higher than the previously planned 138,000 barrels per day, disrupting the traditional "production cut" strategy [4]. - This decision reflects a rebalancing of interests within OPEC+, as major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia aim to regain market share lost due to previous production cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast down to 1.3 million barrels per day, a reduction of 150,000 barrels from the previous month, and lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0% [5]. - The potential resolution of the Ukraine crisis could lead to increased Russian oil production and exports, further altering the global oil supply landscape [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in oil prices has been exacerbated by speculative trading, with put option prices surging tenfold since April 3, indicating rising market panic [5][6]. - Experts believe that the current oil price drop is influenced more by policy changes rather than supply-demand imbalances seen in previous downturns [6]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain volatile, with Brent and WTI price forecasts adjusted to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively [7]. - The outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-Iran negotiations will be critical in determining future oil price movements [8]. Group 6: Impact on Energy Strategy - The decline in oil prices could improve China's international balance of payments, as it is the world's largest oil importer, but may also compress profit margins for domestic oil companies [9][10]. - Experts emphasize the need for China to enhance its energy security and consider strategic reserves while promoting green energy transitions [9][10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐 ...

文 ｜ 明明 彭阳 章立聪 周成华 我们基于4月以来的高频数据，分析了美国"对等关税"政策以来我国出口以及经济运行的情况。数据显示，美国加征关税及取消 小额包裹免税政策对出口链条形成显著冲击，义乌小商品出口价格指数与总价格指数出现分化，反映出出口与内销市场结构的 调整；集装箱运价分化则揭示出制造业对外需变化的高度敏感性。同时，原油及化工品期货价格走弱，表明中游产业链承受下 行压力，PPI面临回落的风险。尽管如此，沥青装置开工率等数据回升，表明基建投资需求有所支撑。4月新兴产业EPMI大幅回 落至4 9 . 4%，进一步印证外部冲击对新兴制造业景气度的压制。本轮外部冲击主要通过需求端传导，企业应对策略呈现分化，未 来出口修复的关键在于市场多元化和全球贸易的改善。 4月新兴产业EPMI指数大幅回落至4 9 . 4%，环比下降1 0 . 2个百分点，远超正常季节性波动水平。这一变化主要由外需冲击主 导，关税加征直接压制了出口订单，企业生产同步收缩。不同于疫情时期以供给收缩为特征，本轮冲击是需求侧主导。面对突 发性外部冲击，不同企业展现出差异化应对策略：一部分企业暂停扩张、转向新兴市场、或局部产能外迁以规避关税风险； ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss macroeconomic policies and trade negotiations involving the United States, European Union, Japan, and China, with a focus on the implications for the U.S. capital markets and the domestic economic environment in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Negotiations** - The EU and the U.S. have restarted high-level trade talks, but no specific timeline has been set. The UK is cautious about reaching a trade agreement, emphasizing food safety standards [1][2] - In U.S.-China negotiations, there is a proposal to reduce current tariffs on China from approximately 145% to about half, but China denies any such discussions [2] - U.S.-Japan negotiations have begun, focusing on automotive market access, increased agricultural imports, and defense cost sharing, with Japan taking a cautious stance [1][2] 2. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Federal Reserve has adopted a dovish tone, indicating potential rate cuts if the job market deteriorates, with a 58% probability of a rate cut in June [1][4][10] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was slightly above expectations at 50.7, while the services PMI was below expectations at 51.4 [4] 3. **Impact of Tariff Policies** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has significantly impacted the U.S. capital markets, particularly the bond market, and has led to a redistribution of power within Trump's team regarding trade negotiations [5] - The Treasury Secretary has played a crucial role in U.S.-China negotiations, with ongoing discussions with India and Vietnam [5] 4. **Liquidity and Debt Ceiling Issues** - The Federal Reserve may adjust or end its balance sheet reduction by mid-2025, but the debt ceiling issue has temporarily released liquidity into the market [6][7] - If the debt ceiling is resolved, the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could tighten liquidity in Q3 2025, posing risks to leveraged traders [6] 5. **Japan's Response to Tariffs** - Japan has implemented measures to support businesses, focusing on consulting and financing rather than direct subsidies, to enhance competitiveness and resilience against international trade challenges [8] 6. **Domestic Economic Policies in China** - The Chinese government is emphasizing the protection of domestic demand and is prepared to implement more effective measures to address external risks [3][14] - There is a focus on accelerating the issuance of local government bonds and special long-term bonds to support fiscal spending [16] - Monetary policy will include targeted loans for service consumption and elderly care to stimulate related industries [17] 7. **Employment and Consumption Policies** - The Chinese government prioritizes employment stability, with measures to support affected industries and enhance the unemployment insurance fund [19][20] - There is a significant push to develop service consumption, which has a larger potential gap compared to goods consumption, indicating a shift in policy focus [18][25] 8. **Real Estate Market Dynamics** - The real estate market is expected to maintain stability despite recent sales declines, with a need for monitoring land acquisition and storage policies [21] 9. **Policy Implementation and Future Directions** - The recent political bureau meeting indicates a clear policy direction focusing on economic stability and preparedness for external challenges, with an emphasis on structural adjustments in response to changing economic conditions [22][24] - The government is likely to introduce new structural monetary tools to address specific economic issues as they arise [24][31] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records highlight the importance of maintaining a balance between domestic economic growth and external trade pressures, with a clear acknowledgment of the complexities introduced by ongoing trade tensions [26][29] - The need for effective mechanisms to transition some export goods to domestic consumption is emphasized, particularly in light of tariff impacts [28] - The potential for policy measures to support low-income groups affected by trade disruptions is noted, including social security enhancements [29] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and policy directions.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversial decision of Li Ka-shing to sell port operations in Panama, which has led to significant backlash and potential financial repercussions for his business empire [2][4][42]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's company, Cheung Kong Group, announced the sale of its port operations in Panama for $22.8 billion, which has drawn criticism from the public and government officials [4][43]. - The sale was intended to be finalized on April 2, but was delayed due to government intervention [8][25]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. acquisition of the Panama port is seen as a strategic move, potentially increasing transit fees and transportation costs for global trade [6][8]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has exacerbated the situation, with tariffs rising significantly, impacting both countries' economies [10][12][19]. Group 3: Public Reaction - The public response to Li Ka-shing's decision has been overwhelmingly negative, with many labeling him a "traitor" and questioning his judgment in light of his age [2][4][36]. - There is a perception that Li Ka-shing is prioritizing personal gain over national interests, leading to further criticism from the public [30][34]. Group 4: Future Implications - The potential for Panama to revoke the operating rights of the port from Li Ka-shing's company has emerged, following a comprehensive audit initiated by the Panamanian government [25][28]. - The article suggests that Li Ka-shing's past successes may not guarantee future stability, especially if public sentiment continues to turn against him [40][42].

"本季度受到重大市场波动的影响，我们的股权投资回报为负，主要是因为科技行业的下跌。"该基金首席执行官Nicolai Tangen说。 一季度，该基金整体规模下降了约1.215万亿克朗。其中，投资亏损4150亿克朗，挪威克朗走强导致汇兑损失8790亿克朗，政府资金流入780亿克朗。 从回报上看，该基金一季度股票投资回报率为-1.6%，固定收益投资回报率为1.6%，非上市房地产投资为2.4%，未上市可再生能源基础设施的回报率为 1.2%。 4月24日，全球最大主权财富基金—挪威主权财富基金发布的一季度报告显示，公司一季度出现了4150亿克朗(约400亿美元)的投资亏损，而亏损的原因是 其重仓的科技板块大幅下跌。 科技股拖累一季度巨亏 报告显示，截至2025年3月31日，该基金的整体规模为18.526万亿克朗，其中，70%投资于股票，27.7%投资于固定收益，1.9%投资于非上市房地产，0.4% 投资于非上市可再生能源基础设施。 企业自身业绩与发展预期方面，也存在诸多问题。以特斯拉为例，其在多个关键市场的销售数据不佳，投资者担心其盈利能力与其目前的高估值不匹配。 特斯拉作为新能源汽车领域的领军企业，市场对其寄予厚望 ...

日前，特朗普在社交媒体上就直言，鲍威尔早该像欧洲中央银行那样降息了，他总是"又迟又错"，"越早走人越好"。近日，他在接受媒体采访的时候，又再 次说起类似的话，声称如果他想让鲍威尔走人，那鲍威尔很快就得走，因为他现在对鲍威尔很不满意。事实上，这已经不是特朗普第一次因为美联储不降息 而将矛头指向鲍威尔了，早在他第一任期的时候，他就曾要求鲍威尔降息，但当时鲍威尔就没同意。 美联储公开抗旨，不接受特朗普的降息要求，这其中的原因是什么？小布什顾问又送了哪4个字呢？ 特朗普的所谓"对等关税"政策一出，算是捅了马蜂窝了，不仅全球贸易遭了殃，就连美国的盟友都在特朗普的关税大棒威压之下惶恐不安，美国自己也没逃 过，美股狂跌，物价飙升，通胀高企，这些对美国的负面影响丝毫不比那些被美国关税大棒制裁的国家受到影响小。曾在美国前总统小布什任内担任高级顾 问的罗夫近日就撰文怒批特朗普的关税政策，送给特朗普政府"筋疲力尽"4个字。他直言，特朗普第二任期还没满100天，他的关税政策就已经让美国人感到 了"筋疲力尽"，因为他们受到了太多的打击。罗夫甚至不禁发出疑问，特朗普的目标到底是要让贸易伙伴降低对美国商品和服务的关税？还是要用对外国商 品 ...

Core Viewpoint - A recent poll indicates that 72.57% of the Taiwanese public does not trust Trump, significantly impacting perceptions of his administration's policies [1] Group 1: Poll Results - 72.57% of respondents in Taiwan believe Trump is not trustworthy, while only 16.1% consider him trustworthy [1] - The survey was conducted among individuals aged 20 and above across more than 20 counties and cities in Taiwan [1] - The effective sample size for the poll was 1,076, with a response rate of 40.54% [1] Group 2: Survey Details - The poll was conducted from April 14 to April 17, 2025 [1] - The survey was carried out by the "China Broadcasting Corporation Public Opinion Survey Association" [1]