Core Insights - The seminar focused on the development trends and policy evolution of global stablecoins, highlighting their operational models, impacts, and regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Operational Models and Market Trends - Understanding stablecoins requires examining their technological foundations and operational models, which differentiate them from cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins combine the technological advantages of crypto assets with the value stability of fiat currencies, addressing incentive mechanisms for market participants [1][3]. - Stablecoins have entered a new phase of scaled and compliant development, becoming popular payment tools that integrate with traditional financial systems. The average transaction size of stablecoins has decreased, indicating a shift from investment settlements to cross-border trade and real-world transactions [1][6][7]. - As of June 20, 2025, the global market capitalization of stablecoins reached $261.5 billion, with USD stablecoins accounting for $253.3 billion. Projections suggest that by 2030, stablecoin market capitalization could reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, depending on regulatory clarity [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on International Payment and Currency Systems - The development of stablecoins, particularly USD stablecoins, is creating a new cycle of dollar circulation, reinforcing the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system. Over 95% of stablecoins are fiat-backed, with USD stablecoins making up 99% of that segment [2][11][13]. - The majority of stablecoin reserves are invested in U.S. Treasury securities, with Tether's USDT holding approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. debt as of March 2025. This trend is expected to continue, potentially leading to stablecoin issuers holding over $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries by 2030 [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges and Frameworks - The governance challenges and potential risks associated with stablecoins are becoming increasingly apparent. The U.S. is leading a global shift towards supportive regulatory frameworks for compliant innovation in stablecoins [2][19]. - A "five-pillar framework" for stablecoin regulation has emerged, focusing on the functional positioning of stablecoins, issuer access, operational oversight, reserve fund management, and anti-money laundering measures [20][21]. - Future regulatory considerations include the applicability of existing frameworks to decentralized operations, the need for innovative regulatory approaches leveraging new technologies, and addressing the global nature of cryptocurrency against national governance [25].

| HK$3.67 +2.43 +195.97% □实时情 | | | 已收盘 06-25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最高: 3.70 | 今开： 1.42 | 成交量：64.91亿股 | 换手:68.1/ | | 最低： 1.42 | 昨收： 1.24 | 成交额： 162.53亿 | 振幅:183. | | 52周最高: 3.70 | 量比： 193.14 | 市盈率(动)： 100.55 | 市盈率(TTV | | 52周最低：0.59 | 委比： 2.95% | 市盈率(静)： 100.55 | 市净率： 2.1 | | 每股收益：0.04 | 股息(TTM): 0.03 | 总股本： 95.29亿 | 总市值: 34 | | 每股净资产： 1.57 | 股息率(TTM)：0.87% | 港股股本： 95.29亿 | 港股市值： | | 每手股数：1000 | 最小价差：0.01 | 货币单位: HKD | | 红星资本局6月25日消息，今日，国泰君安国际（1788.HK）盘初大涨超80%，截至收盘，报3.67港元/股，涨超190%。 资料配图 图据视觉中国 券商沸腾 ...

目前，全球范围内已有许多关于稳定币的实践探索和监管尝试，但这仅仅是一个开始，仍有许多问 题亟待解答，且需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机 遇，也存在挑战。核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) emphasizes the need for a cautious and objective approach towards stablecoins, highlighting the importance of regulatory measures and the high standards for issuing licenses [1][4]. Summary by Sections Definition and Purpose of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as virtual assets aimed at maintaining a relatively stable value against certain assets, typically currencies, such as the HK Dollar stablecoin (HKDR) which is pegged 1:1 to the HKD [3]. - They are not considered investment or speculative tools but rather payment instruments utilizing blockchain technology, lacking appreciation potential [3]. Regulatory Framework and Licensing - The HKMA plans to issue only a limited number of licenses initially, with a focus on applicants having real application scenarios [5][7]. - The first batch of sandbox participants included three issuers, and entry into the sandbox does not guarantee future licensing [6][8]. - The licensing process will be stringent, considering the risks associated with stablecoin issuance and the need for user protection [6][8]. Compliance and Market Considerations - From a compliance perspective, stablecoin issuers must demonstrate capabilities in asset management, price stability mechanisms, and risk control [8]. - Market sustainability for stablecoin issuers is influenced by user scale, application scenarios, and financial resources [8]. - Applicants must provide feasible business plans that address economic and financial pain points while ensuring compliance and operational sustainability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government has announced the implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" effective August 1, 2025, establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, marking a significant milestone for the sustainable development of Hong Kong's stablecoin and digital asset ecosystem [1][10]. Regulatory Framework - The regulation requires anyone issuing fiat-backed stablecoins or stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong to obtain a license from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), with only licensed entities permitted to sell stablecoins to retail investors [1][2]. - The initial phase will see only a limited number of licenses granted, with high entry barriers akin to banking qualifications, focusing on applicants' business plans, reserve management capabilities, compliance systems, and technical security [2][3]. Capital and Financial Requirements - Licensed entities must be registered companies in Hong Kong or recognized institutions abroad, with a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million (approximately USD 3.2 million), unless they are banks or recognized institutions [2][3]. - Stablecoins must be backed by high-quality, highly liquid assets, with reserves strictly corresponding to the pegged currency, such as holding Hong Kong dollars in cash or short-term bonds for HKD-pegged stablecoins [2][3]. Compliance and Operational Standards - The regulation mandates that reserve asset pools must be isolated from other reserves held by the licensed entity and subject to independent third-party audits to ensure user fund safety [3][4]. - Key management personnel must reside in Hong Kong, and licensed entities must establish anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-financing of terrorism (CFT) systems compliant with local regulations [3][4]. Licensing Scope - The regulation extends beyond direct issuance of stablecoins; it also requires licenses for issuing fiat-backed stablecoins outside Hong Kong and actively promoting related business to the Hong Kong public [3][4]. - The definition of "active promotion" is flexible, considering factors such as the language used in promotional materials and the target audience [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The HKMA's sandbox program has already seen participation from several entities, including JD.com and Standard Chartered, which are testing stablecoin issuance processes [5][6]. - Despite the competitive landscape, entry into the sandbox does not guarantee future licensing, as all applications will be evaluated against strict standards [6]. Strategic Implications - The regulation is expected to enhance Hong Kong's financial regulatory alignment with international standards, attracting compliant global virtual asset firms and talent, thereby strengthening its position as an innovative financial hub [10][11]. - The growth of stablecoins, which have seen a 45-fold increase in scale over the past six years, positions them as a mainstream payment and settlement option, with significant implications for cross-border payments and the internationalization of the Renminbi [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) emphasizes the need for cautious regulation and a clear understanding of stablecoins, highlighting their role as payment tools rather than investment or speculative instruments [1][3][4]. Regulatory Approach - The HKMA has set high thresholds for issuing licenses for stablecoin issuers, requiring real application scenarios and indicating that only a few licenses will be granted in the initial phase [1][5][7]. - The HKMA's sandbox program, which includes three initial participants, is designed to understand the business models of potential stablecoin issuers, but entry does not guarantee a license [6][7]. Definition and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as virtual assets aimed at maintaining a stable value relative to certain assets, typically currencies, and are seen as a bridge between traditional finance and virtual assets [3][4]. - They possess unique features such as anonymity and ease of cross-border use, which present regulatory challenges, particularly in anti-money laundering [4]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The future development of stablecoins will largely depend on market forces, with various new payment tools emerging alongside stablecoins, including CBDCs and tokenized deposits [3][4]. - The HKMA is actively involved in reviewing the implementation of the global regulatory framework for crypto asset activities established by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) [3][4]. Compliance and Market Sustainability - Stablecoin issuers must demonstrate capabilities in asset management, price stability mechanisms, and risk control, along with a comprehensive compliance plan if their operations involve other regions [7]. - The sustainability of a stablecoin issuer's business is influenced by factors such as user scale, application scenarios, and market conditions, necessitating a viable business plan and sufficient resources [7].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's regulatory framework for stablecoins is set to begin on August 1, with the Monetary Authority (HKMA) expected to issue a limited number of licenses initially, emphasizing a cautious approach to the burgeoning interest in stablecoins [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect on August 1, allowing HKMA to start accepting license applications, with specific guidelines being developed through market consultation [1]. - HKMA's president, Eddie Yue, highlighted the importance of a measured response to the rising interest in stablecoins, indicating that they should not be viewed as investment or speculative tools but rather as payment instruments utilizing blockchain technology [1][2]. - The regulatory framework is based on international guidelines established by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) under the G20, aiming to address risks associated with stablecoins, including anti-money laundering challenges [2]. Group 2: Licensing and Market Considerations - The issuance of stablecoin licenses will have high entry barriers, with expectations that only a few licenses will be granted initially, focusing on entities with real application scenarios and sustainable business models [3]. - HKMA has previously launched a "sandbox" for stablecoin issuers to understand their business models and provide regulatory guidance, although participation in the sandbox does not guarantee a license [3]. - The principle of "same activity, same risk, same regulation" will guide the licensing process, ensuring alignment with international standards while addressing local market conditions [2][3].

Core Insights - Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) saw a 16% increase in stock price on a recent trading day, with a nearly 20% rise over the past week, following the Senate's approval of a stablecoin regulation bill, which is a significant win for the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The new legislation establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain full reserve backing, conduct monthly audits, and comply with anti-money laundering laws, potentially enhancing the legitimacy and mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies [2] - Coinbase's revenue from stablecoins is substantial, being its second-largest source of income, and the company co-founded USD Coin (USDC), sharing in the profits generated from its reserves [3] Financial Performance - Coinbase Global's revenue has grown at an average rate of 18.6% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's growth of 5.5% [6] - The company's revenue increased by 75.2% over the past twelve months, rising from $4.0 billion to $7.0 billion, and quarterly revenue grew by 24.2% to $2.0 billion [7] - Coinbase's operating income for the last four quarters was $2.3 billion, with an operating margin of 33.0%, and a net income of $1.5 billion, reflecting a net income margin of 21.1% [8] Valuation Metrics - Coinbase has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 9.5, compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.0 versus 26.9 for the benchmark [6][5] - The company's price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at 33.7, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 20.9 [6] Financial Stability - Coinbase's total debt is $4.3 billion, with a market capitalization of $75 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.5%, which is lower than the S&P 500's 19.4% [9] - The company holds $10 billion in cash and cash equivalents, constituting 46.7% of its total assets of $22 billion, indicating a strong cash-to-assets ratio [9] Market Performance - Despite strong growth and profitability, Coinbase stock has shown considerable volatility and has underperformed the S&P 500 during recent downturns, including a 90.9% drop from its peak in November 2021 [10][11] - The stock has not yet returned to its pre-crisis peak, with the highest price since then being $343.62 in December 2024, while currently trading around $295 [11]

Core Insights - The U.S. Senate has passed legislation to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, potentially making stablecoin issuers the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds by 2030 [1] - Circle Internet's recent IPO has drawn significant attention, with its Class A shares soaring 675.1% from an initial price of $31, pushing the company's market capitalization close to $50 billion [1] - There are mixed opinions on Circle's valuation, with some analysts predicting a bubble while others see potential for growth in the stablecoin market [1][2] Positive Perspectives - AImango research team highlights Circle's potential transformation into a powerful global payment network, emphasizing its profitability and the growth of stablecoins like USDC [2] - Investment leader James Foord notes that the GENIUS Act paves the way for stablecoin regulation, positioning Circle and USDC as major beneficiaries, while cautioning about revenue-sharing risks with Coinbase [2] - Lighting Rock Research predicts an 8-fold growth in the stablecoin market, with USDC and EURC expected to see a 25% annual revenue increase due to their liquidity and compliance advantages [2] Negative Perspectives - Analyst Josh Arnold warns that despite the new legislation enhancing industry legitimacy, the current valuation is overstretched, facing competition from tech giants and risks of diminishing transparency [2] - Bill Maurer emphasizes that the revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase could erode net profits, and unexercised options may further inflate the already high valuation bubble [2]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看路演详情 ） 近期，香港《稳定币条例》于5月30日正式颁布，美国参议院亦于6月17日通过了《GENIUS法案》，明确稳定币监管框架的同时，也意味着加密货币迎来 里程碑式进展。 稳定币是一类币值锚定特定资产（通常为法定货币）的加密货币，是连接去中心化金融系统（Defi）和传统金融体系的桥梁。 通过锚定法币和虚拟货 币，稳定币可以提供虚拟货币的优势，例如快速、低成本的跨境交易，同时又避免了传统加密货币的价格动荡。 据Artemis数据显示，稳定币总市值于2020-2025年增长近2,000亿美元。截至2025年5月末，稳定币总市值已达到约2,450亿美元。A股市场，稳定币概念股 今年以来的涨幅也十分抢眼。 稳定币走上台前，进入主流视野，对于金融市场格局有何影响？对投资者而言有何机会？ 6月23日（周一）私募排排网邀请 德邦证券通信首席分析师李宏涛 为投资者解码数字货币的底层逻辑、发展路径与核心投资机会。 路演主题 《稳定币与中国数字货币投资机会》 稳定币与中国数字 货币投资机会 私募直播看点 李宏涛 德邦证券 通信首席分析师 亮点前瞻 路演时间 6月23日（周 ...