Group 1 - The Chinese government announced a one-year suspension of 24% tariffs on the U.S., while retaining a 10% tariff and removing tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products, indicating a reciprocal response to U.S. tariff policies [1][3][5] - The decision to maintain a 10% tariff is linked to the U.S. retaining a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, reflecting a tit-for-tat approach in trade relations [3][5] - The recent trade agreements and tariff adjustments are seen as stabilizing the economic relationship between the U.S. and China, benefiting both nations [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. midterm elections resulted in significant victories for the Democratic Party, attributed to economic dissatisfaction among voters, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs [7][9] - Inflation in the U.S. has risen by 3% over the past year, with the Federal Reserve struggling to balance interest rates and inflation control, leading to a complex economic situation [9][11] - The U.S. economy faces risks of "stagflation," where inflation persists alongside high unemployment, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [11][13] Group 3 - Legal challenges regarding the tariff policies are ongoing, with questions about the authority under which tariffs were imposed, potentially leading to significant economic implications if overturned [15][17][19] - The Trump administration has indicated plans for alternative strategies should legal rulings against tariffs occur, highlighting the precarious nature of current trade policies [19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, aligning with expectations, and indicated potential for further rate cuts while considering all factors affecting inflation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Mexico will assess whether to continue lowering the benchmark interest rate, taking into account all factors influencing inflation [1] - The central bank has slightly raised its core inflation forecasts for the end of this year and early 2026, but still expects inflation to return to its 3% target by the third quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Weak economic data has raised concerns about a potential recession, prompting the central bank's decision to lower interest rates [1] - The statement released by policymakers removed previous references to "further adjustments" in borrowing costs, indicating a more cautious approach moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, aligning with expectations, and indicated potential for further rate cuts while considering all factors affecting inflation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Mexico will assess whether to continue lowering the benchmark interest rate, taking into account all factors influencing inflation [1] - The central bank has slightly raised its core inflation forecast for the end of this year and early 2026, but still expects inflation to return to its 3% target by the third quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Weak economic data has raised concerns about a potential recession, prompting the central bank's decision to lower interest rates [1] - The statement from policymakers removed previous references to "further adjustments" in borrowing costs, indicating a more cautious approach moving forward [1]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that even if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the overall impact on trade will be limited, with a predicted decrease in the probability of maintaining tariffs by about 10 percentage points [1] - The Supreme Court's decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026, and if tariffs are deemed illegal, the government may need months to refund approximately $115 to $145 billion in tariffs [1] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on U.S. Treasuries, noting that the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs could lead to significant market volatility [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - TD Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, with a close vote expected at 5-4 [4] - Danske Bank also anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, highlighting the importance of the votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor [7] - The Bank of England's decision-making is influenced by ongoing inflation and labor market conditions, with a cautious approach to further easing [7] Group 3: Commodity and Sector Analysis - CITIC Securities predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic performance [8] - CITIC Securities also notes that the white liquor industry is at a bottom, with a recovery expected in 2026, while the beer sector is anticipated to see stable revenue and profit [9] - CITIC Securities reports that the aluminum sector is experiencing high profit expansion, with demand for electrolytic aluminum exceeding expectations [10] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - CITIC Securities highlights that the current market rally is characterized by an increase in total deposits and a need for improvement in total wealth [11] - The firm expects that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching profitability [12] - The outlook for AI capital expenditures remains optimistic, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026, despite uncertainties in 2027 [13]

Core Points - Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and is approaching the record length set from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2.2 basis points to 4.085% [3] - The ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7%, below the expected 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from September [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights - The lack of key economic reports due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty among investors, who are now looking to the ADP private employment report for insights into the U.S. economy [3] - Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that the absence of critical economic data has heightened uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and risks [3] - Fed Governor Cook indicated that risks related to employment and inflation have increased, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming December meeting [3][4] Market Reactions and Global Context - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut have caused market anxiety [4] - European Central Bank officials are advocating for a cautious approach, suggesting that premature adjustments to monetary policy could lead to market volatility [6] - In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced plans to increase taxes in the upcoming autumn budget, addressing public finance pressures [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Levels - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $95 billion, with a 17-week short-term bond issuance planned for the following day [9] - As of October 31, the total U.S. federal debt has remained above $38 trillion for seven consecutive days, reaching a historical high of over $38.10 trillion on October 30 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy may be experiencing recession in certain sectors due to high interest rates, prompting calls for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that while the overall economic condition is good, some industries are facing recession [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell downplayed expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to criticism from government officials [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, with only two out of twelve committee members opposing the decision [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Mihal stated that failure to quickly lower interest rates could lead to an economic recession [1]

《纽约时报》1日刊登的一篇采访报道中，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰说，如果美联储不迅速降低利率，就 可能引发一场经济衰退。美联储10月29日宣布再次降息25个基点。在联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中， 仅两名委员对此决策投下反对票，米兰是其中之一，他主张降息50个基点。 美国财政部长贝森特11月2日表示，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经陷入衰退。他再次呼吁 美联储加快降息步伐。 贝森特当天在美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目中说："我认为美国经济整体状况良好，但某些行 业存在衰退。而且，美联储的政策造成诸多分配方面的问题。" 美联储主席鲍威尔日前淡化12月降息预期，引发贝森特等政府官员批评。 来源：新华社 审读：吴席平 ...

美联储10月29日宣布再次降息25个基点。在联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中，仅两名委员对此决策投下 反对票，米兰是其中之一，他主张降息50个基点。 贝森特当天在美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目中说："我认为美国经济整体状况良好，但某些行 业存在衰退。而且，美联储的政策造成诸多分配方面的问题。" 美联储主席鲍威尔日前淡化12月降息预期，引发贝森特等政府官员批评。 《纽约时报》1日刊登的一篇采访报道中，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰说，如果美联储不迅速降低利率，就 可能引发一场经济衰退。 据央视新闻消息，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间11月2日表示，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能 已经陷入衰退。他再次呼吁美联储加快降息步伐。 编辑 陈艳婷 ...

【新华社微特稿】美国财政部长贝森特2日表示，受高利率影响，美国经济部分领域可能已经陷入衰 退。他再次呼吁美联储加快降息步伐。 贝森特当天在美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目中说："我认为美国经济整体状况良好，但某些行 业存在衰退。而且，美联储的政策造成诸多分配方面的问题。" 《纽约时报》1日刊登的一篇采访报道中，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰说，如果美联储不迅速降低利率，就 可能引发一场经济衰退。美联储10月29日宣布再次降息25个基点。在联邦公开市场委员会12名委员中， 仅两名委员对此决策投下反对票，米兰是其中之一，他主张降息50个基点。（完）（卜晓明） 美联储主席鲍威尔日前淡化12月降息预期，引发贝森特等政府官员批评。 ...