美国就业市场

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政府支撑就业上升——6月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-07-04 01:55
Core Viewpoint - The increase in non-farm employment in June is primarily supported by government jobs, while private sector employment shows significant weakness [1][2][15] Employment Data - In June, non-farm employment rose to 147,000, with government contributing half of the new jobs, mainly in state and local education, while private sector jobs fell sharply to 74,000 from 137,000 in May [1][2][4] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating more individuals are exiting the labor market [6][15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, marking a continued decline since November 2024 [8][11] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was seen in business services and finance at 5.3% and 4.3%, while manufacturing and retail experienced the largest declines in wage growth [11][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings rose to 7.76 million in May, with a vacancy rate of 4.6%, indicating a balance between labor supply and demand [10] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a decrease in private sector job creation and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce [15] Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July rate cut dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [15]
美国就业系列十五:非农超预期释放韧性,市场降息预期后移
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 01:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US labor market is gradually changing with the continuation of the Fed's high - interest - rate policy. The labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand, and the slowdown in wage growth provides more flexibility for policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recruitment and Vacancies - As of June 2025, the monthly average of recruitment plans dropped slightly to 31.91 million, a decrease of nearly 5,500 from the May average, compared to 127,000 in 2021 and 104,000 in 2019 [3]. - As of June 2025, the revised non - government job vacancies rose to 6.936 million, but continued to slow down compared to the peak of over 10 million in 2022, with the manufacturing gap dropping to 414,000 [3]. Non - farm Employment - As of June 2025, the total new non - farm employment increased by 147,000, including 73,000 in the government and 74,000 in enterprises [3]. - In terms of industry structure, education and healthcare and hotels added 51,000 and 20,000 respectively, and the information service industry added 3,000 in June. The increments in different industries decreased to varying degrees compared to May [3]. - The unemployment rate in June dropped by 0.1 percentage point [3]. Wage Growth - As of June 2025, the average weekly wage growth rate of non - farm employment was revised down to 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the pre - revision in May, maintaining the downward trend since the low of 4.1% in April this year [4]. - In June, the wage growth rate of the commodity production sector was + 3.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and that of the service production sector was + 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [4]. - The current US labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand. Recruitment demand continues to slow down, and labor supply growth is limited [4].
中信证券:预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息
news flash· 2025-07-04 00:24
Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again in the September meeting due to ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market [1] Employment Market Analysis - The non-farm payroll report for June indicates that the U.S. job market continues to weaken, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, which is lower than expected [1] - Despite the lower unemployment rate, CITIC Securities believes that the labor market has limited "buffer" capacity, suggesting that the unemployment rate may rise more quickly in the future [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current unemployment rate provides Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with more reasons to observe the impact of summer tariffs on inflation [1] - The expectation is maintained that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate cut in the upcoming September meeting [1]
美国就业市场持稳,美联储或推迟至9月再重启降息
news flash· 2025-07-03 12:50
美国就业市场持稳,美联储或推迟至9月再重启降息 金十数据7月3日讯,美国6月就业市场表现稳健,非农就业人数增加14.7万人,高于5月修正后的14.4万 人;失业率意外下降至4.1%,经济学家此前预计将微升至4.3%。该报告表明劳动力市场保持稳定,这 可能使美联储将重启降息的时间推迟至9月。尽管就业增长超预期,但增速正在放缓,主要反映出招聘 活动疲软。裁员仍然相当低,在新冠大流行期间和之后,雇主普遍囤积工人,因为他们很难找到劳动 力。包括首次申请失业救济人数和领取失业金人数在内的多项指标显示,在经历了保护经济免于衰退的 强劲表现后,劳动力市场正显现疲态。当时美联储为对抗高通胀大幅收紧货币政策。 ...
Moneta外汇:美国6月就业增长预期放缓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 11:00
www.monetamarkets.com FOREN | INCES | CONNECTITIES | SHIRE CHINE CHINE CHILI Moneta外汇认为,尽管美国劳动力市场过去一年来展现出强劲韧性,但最新市场预期显示,就业增长正面临逐步降温的局面。6月份的非农就业报告即将出 炉,投资者普遍预计新增岗位将有所减少,而失业率可能升至4.3%,创下三年半以来的新高。 R KETA A MONETA i FORE PO H 2:10: RUITD Xtreme Next Ba (@Alti-Asset MONETA A 4 MONETA AN HN 图库提体系 版上最美的图像 Tool, 冲刺激的航空部落 无需交易经营 门槛上手 保局 - 美元静可加入 82 89,00 名世界级信号游,按偶年度交易策略 全面明散据十分流模式,收益看得见统,更安心 般时提交 / 取消订单,自由掌控交易 同时跟单多个糖味,打造多元化投资组合 分散风险,资金配置更安心! 理在就下载 MM APP 发射鼻手邪起, 板松学理交易电热! 日 Moneta外汇表示,从结构来看,这种放缓主要反映出企业在当前经济政策背景下对未来 ...
美国6月ADP数据爆冷,DOGE的锅?
第一财经· 2025-07-03 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline in U.S. private sector job growth in June, attributed to the impact of government layoffs, particularly from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is expected to cut 288,628 federal positions this year [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data and Trends - The ADP data for June revealed a surprising decrease of 33,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector, contrary to economists' expectations of a 100,000 increase, marking the first negative reading in over two years [1]. - The job vacancy rate in government sectors has decreased by 5% from January to April, while the application rate remains stagnant at levels seen in 2014, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [2]. - Job applications from government employees have surged by 150%, particularly in knowledge-based roles such as data analysis and software development, as employees seek new opportunities amid fears of layoffs [2][3]. Group 2: Layoff Statistics and Industry Impact - In the second quarter of 2025, cumulative layoffs reached over 2.47 million, the highest for the same period since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 39% [4]. - The government sector experienced a 46% month-on-month increase in layoffs in June, while the retail sector led private sector layoffs with 79,865 positions cut, a staggering 256% increase year-on-year [4]. - The technology sector has also seen significant layoffs, with 76,214 positions eliminated this year, reflecting a 27% increase, as companies face challenges due to high interest rates and reduced hiring needs post-pandemic [5].
美国6月ADP数据爆冷,DOGE的锅?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 07:37
Group 1 - The ADP data for June shows a surprising decrease in private sector employment by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative reading in over two years, contrary to economists' expectations of a 100,000 job increase [1] - The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is expected to cut 288,628 federal government positions within the year, contributing to a slowdown in the labor market at a critical time [1] - Job vacancies in government sectors have decreased by 5% from January to April, while the application rate remains stagnant at 2014 levels, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [3] Group 2 - There has been a 150% increase in job applications from government employees, particularly in data analysis, marketing, and software development roles, as they seek new opportunities amid fears of layoffs [3] - The search volume for positions such as "policy analyst" and "contract specialist" has surged, with a tenfold increase in searches for "policy analyst" roles among federal employees [3] - The labor market is expected to show complex dynamics, with a total of over 2.47 million layoffs in the second quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2020, despite a 49% decrease in layoffs from May to June [5] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show only 115,000 new jobs added in June, which would represent the slowest job growth in the first half of the year since the financial crisis, with an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] - The demand for white-collar jobs is significantly higher than for skilled labor jobs, posing a challenge for job seekers entering the labor market [6] - The tech sector is facing hiring difficulties due to sustained high interest rates, which hinder the growth of debt-dependent tech companies, particularly startups, leading to a reduction in hiring [6]
高盛看衰美国就业市场:6月非农就业新增预计仅8.5万
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 03:03
| | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | | 350-375 | | 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 73.1% | | 2025/9/17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 64.9% | 12.9% | | 2025/10/29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 53.3% | 27.1% | 3.5% | | 2025/1 ...
“小非农”意外转负,市场静待今晚非农验证美国就业市场是否疲软,金价连涨三天后在亚盘回落,多头蓄势待发,纳指、道指多空情绪混杂,后市情绪如何?欢迎前往“数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表”查看并订阅(数据每10分钟更新1次)
news flash· 2025-07-03 02:35
Group 1 - The unexpected decline in the "little non-farm" data raises concerns about the strength of the U.S. job market, with the market awaiting confirmation from the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1] - Gold prices have increased for three consecutive days but experienced a pullback during the Asian trading session, indicating potential consolidation among bullish traders [1] - Mixed sentiments are observed in major indices such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, leading to uncertainty about future market trends [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 73% bullish and 27% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 82%, with only 18% bearish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment of 59% bullish and 41% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a near-even split with 47% bullish and 53% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 86%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 84% [4] - The Euro/Yen and Euro/AUD pairs both exhibit a high bearish sentiment of 93%, indicating a strong preference for selling these pairs [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 84%, while the USD/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [4]
美元再创新低,贵?属短线反弹
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 04:09
美元再创新低,美债收益率同步下⾏,商品⼤多受益反弹,贵⾦属出现明 显上⾏。美国6⽉ISM制造业PMI向上修复,但幅度有限,职位空缺数显⽰ 就业市场需求仍有韧性,美联储主席承认劳动⼒市场正在降温,发⾔较先 前逐渐转鸽,年内降息预期⼩幅升温,Fed Watch显⽰年内降息3次, ⾸降仍维持在9⽉落地。本周仍重点关注⾮农就业数据和关税进展,若⼆ 者不显著恶化,⻩⾦⽉内或仍需在区间内震荡蓄⼒,若⼆者有有显著恶 化,⾦价预计就势震荡上⾏,⽩银短期预计跟随⾦价波动。下半年维持看 多⻩⾦,谨慎看多⽩银的观点。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-2 美元再创新低,贵⾦属短线反弹 重点资讯: 1)美国6月ISM制造业PMI为49,预期48.8,前值48.5;产出指数为5 0.3,前值45.4;制造业物价支付指数为69.7,预期69,前值69.4; 就业指数为45,预期47,前值46.8;库存指数为49.2,前值46.7; 新订单指数为46.4,前值47.6。 2)美联储主席鲍威尔称,绝大多数美联储委员预计今年晚些时候会 降息;看到劳动力市场正在逐渐降温;无法确定7月降息 ...