将就业水平目标定在与2%通胀目标一致的水平 本文作者是前纽约联储前主席比尔·杜德利（Bill Dudley） 鲍威尔绝不能让特朗普干扰这项关键改革——尽管特朗普反复威胁要撤换他，但若因此采取"敷衍了 事"的调整将铸成大错。 现行货币政策框架存在严重缺陷，修正它们既能彰显领导力，更能捍卫美联储的独立性。 由杜德利主笔的三十人集团最新报告提出六项核心改革建议： 回归对称的2%通胀目标 2020年框架评估时，美联储在长期低通胀后采用了"灵活平均通胀目标制"，即低于2%的缺口需用超额 通胀弥补，但反之不然。这一调整不仅增加了政策沟通难度，还因"中性"短期利率上升而显得不合时宜 ——随后五年通胀持续高于2%的目标。回归对称目标既能减少市场困惑，也能为零利率下限风险重现 做好准备。 美联储在2020年评审中设定的就业目标也是单方面的：它旨在最小化与最大可持续就业水平的不足—— 即不会对工资造成过大上行压力的水平。这决定了美联储将短期利率维持在接近零的水平的承诺，直到 就业达到可持续最大水平，且通胀既达到2%并预计在一段时间内保持在2%以上。结果是，即使当时经 济快速增长、劳动力市场过热、通胀已攀升至5%以上，美联储直到2 ...

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]

掉期市场数据显示，日本央行在2025年底前加息的可能性约为70%。 但具体路径存在三种可能情景： 基准情景（概率45%） ：若美国关税维持在10%水平且油价稳定，央行或在2024年10月重启加息，2025 年累计加息50个基点； 风险情景（概率30%） ：全面关税实施导致增长失速，央行被迫推出新的量化宽松，加息推迟至2026 年； 新华财经北京4月28日电（崔凯）在全球经济不确定性增加，特别是美国关税政策对日本经济构成重大 挑战的背景下，市场普遍预期日本央行将维持其基准利率不变，并可能发出暂停推进政策正常化的信 号。尽管如此，日本央行仍保持在未来经济前景明朗时逐步加息的立场。 自2023年3月启动加息周期以来，日本央行已完成三次、累计50个基点的加息，成为全球主要央行中货 币政策正常化进程最缓慢的案例。然而，特朗普政府近期推出的全面关税政策，特别是针对日本支柱产 业汽车征收的25%惩罚性关税，彻底打乱了政策制定者的节奏。 据54位经济学家的调查显示，90%的受访者认为日本央行将在6月前维持利率不变，而认为三季度加息 的概率已从3月的70%骤降至52%。更值得关注的是，23%的分析师首次提出加息可能推迟至202 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the context of the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US dollar's credit, the gold price has been strong. Since the beginning of 2025 (from January 2 to April 25), the price of the COMEX gold main contract has risen by 26.1%, reaching a record high of $3,509.9 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US tariff policies and the Fed's persistently tight monetary policy stance have pressured the silver price, which has significantly underperformed gold. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a relatively high level. After the easing of the impact on the Fed's independence, the Fed has signaled a loose monetary policy. Around the Fed's June interest - rate meeting, the silver price may start a catch - up rally [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2010 QE2 Monetary Policy Expectations and the Rise of Silver Price to a Record High - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the significant rise of the silver price was often macro - driven by the "accelerated" release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, with the breakdown of the gold - silver ratio as the starting point on the trading chart. Before the start of the silver rally in early August 2010, the market's main expectation for the Fed's monetary policy was the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The Fed continuously cut interest rates after the September 18, 2007, interest - rate meeting, and the upper bound of the federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% to 0.25% after the December 16, 2008, meeting. The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $905.2 billion in early September 2008 to $2,325.3 billion in early August 2010 [4]. - In early June 2010, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified in the House Financial Committee, indicating that the US economic recovery faced significant risks and that the Fed would maintain policy flexibility and take action if necessary. This was his first indication of possible additional loose policies after the end of the first round of quantitative easing. The US dollar index rose from April to June 2010 due to the weak euro after the European debt crisis, reaching a peak on June 7 and then falling 6.02% to 83.15 by the end of August. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.01% on April 5, 2010, to 2.58% in mid - August. By the end of August 2010, both the Fed officials' statements and the trends of the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index pointed to further loose monetary policy on the balance - sheet level (the possibility of lowering the policy rate to negative was low). At the Jackson Hole central bank symposium at the end of August 2010, Bernanke confirmed the implementation of QE2 [5]. - After Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the gold - silver ratio broke down at the end of the triangular convergence, and the COMEX silver price rose after breaking through the convergence. From August 27, 2010, to April 29, 2011, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 156% to $48.6 per ounce, reaching a record high of $49.8 per ounce [6]. 3.2 2020 Pandemic Shock and the Concentrated Release of the Fed's Loose Monetary Policy - In March 2020, due to the large - scale community spread of the COVID - 19 in the US, the Fed under Powell's leadership implemented emergency interest - rate cuts. On March 15, 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate to 0% - 0.25% and restarted quantitative easing, promising to buy at least $700 billion of Treasury bonds and MBS per month. In the May 19, 2020, interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 0% - 0.25% and emphasized that the interest rate would remain low for a long time [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 1.86% on January 9, 2020, to 0.66% on June 30, 2020, due to the safe - haven drive of the pandemic and the Fed's loose stance. The US dollar index, which was strong at the beginning of the pandemic due to safe - haven factors, fell 5.1% from 102.7 on March 20 to 97.4 on June 30. By the end of June 2020, the Fed had implemented loose monetary policies in terms of both interest rates and the balance sheet, which were reflected in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index. In early July 2020, the gold - silver ratio formed a bear flag decline continuation pattern, and the COMEX silver main contract price had recovered from the low level and showed an ascending triangle pattern. In the July 2020 Fed interest - rate meeting, Powell emphasized the severe situation of the US economy and the need for monetary and fiscal policy support. The gold - silver ratio broke down the flag surface in July and reached 72.1 in early August. From June 30 to August 10, 2020, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 62% to $29.2 per ounce [12]. 3.3 Current Fed's Monetary Policy Stance Change and the Expected Repetition of the "Script" of Accelerated Loose Expectations - The Trump administration's radical tariff policies have increased the risk of a US economic recession and pushed up inflation. After the new US administration took office, Powell and other Fed officials took a hawkish stance. After the sharp correction of the US stock market on April 17, Powell was still cautious about interest - rate cuts, stating that the Fed would not conduct "market - rescue" operations. Trump criticized the Fed's monetary policy, and there were discussions about "removing Powell." However, at the end of April, Trump changed his attitude, and the US Treasury Secretary explained that Trump's remarks might refer to the end of Powell's term. Subsequently, Fed officials' attitudes changed, indicating that there was room for loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, and Cleveland Fed President Harker was more explicit about the possible adjustment time of monetary policy [14][17]. - From February 3 to April 25, 2025, the US dollar index fell 8.8% from 109.2 to 99.6, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.51% to 4.24%. These declines reflected the market's expectation of a US economic recession and the selling of US dollar assets. The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, September, October, and December interest - rate meetings, with the terminal interest - rate range reaching 3.25% - 3.50% at the end of the year [18]. - Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a high level above 100 and is gradually forming a top pattern. The COMEX silver main contract price has rebounded after the release of the negative impact of tariffs, showing a strong technical pattern. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech. Around the June interest - rate meeting, as the tariff policies have a substantial impact on the US economy, especially the labor market, Powell may gradually express his stance on interest - rate cuts. The breakdown of the gold - silver ratio will be the starting point of the silver rally, and the international silver price is expected to reach a record high [19].

From UBS 黄金最近成为表现最好的资产类别，过去一年上涨了 50%。 现在的关键问题是何时获利了结。 与股票或债券不同，黄金缺乏确定"公允价值"的估值指 标，这一决策很有挑战。有些人会建议 使用实际利率 ，但证明难以应用(下图，已经背离），因为近期黄金价格的波动可能更多受地缘政治因素驱动，而 非投资组合优化 在本文中，我们回顾了历史上的地缘政治事件，以提供黄金走势的判断。以下是一些需要关注的"见顶信号" 黄金一旦突破，通常会在两三年内翻2-4倍……至少达到 4000 美元 当黄金价格在2024年4月突破 2100 美元时，我们在《黄金突破：追还是放弃？》中讨论过， 黄金长时间震荡后一旦突破，涨势通常迅猛且激烈， 历史 上在短时间内曾出现过 2-4 倍的飙升（是的你没看错）。以2-3年长期持有为目标的投资者可以预期价格翻倍，甚至超过4000 美元。 自1971年布雷顿森林体系结束黄金开始自由交易以来，黄金经历了四次重要的突破阶段：1972 年 2 月、1978 年 8 月、2008 年 2 月，以及最近的 2024 年 3 月（下图）。值得注意的是，黄金价格的突破在某种程度上预示了 经济衰退 和 地缘政治 ...

Group 1: US Market Analysis (2009-2011) - The US real estate market bottomed out without significantly affecting economic recovery, which drove a strong stock market [3][9][11] - The stock market's upward momentum was primarily driven by the recovery of personal consumption, manufacturing, and exports [3][17][25] Group 2: Japan Market Analysis (2012-2013) - Japan experienced a slight rebound in real estate, leading to a long bull market driven by government investment and quantitative easing [3][32][33] - The stock market's rise was supported by increased public investment and the Bank of Japan's purchase of risk assets [3][41][51] Group 3: Germany Market Analysis (2022-2023) - Despite a decline in real estate prices and economic recession, the German stock market continued to rise [3][58][62] - The stock market's growth was fueled by corporate globalization and favorable liquidity conditions [3][70][74] Group 4: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market may experience a bull market driven by the bottoming out of real estate, along with rebounds in consumption, investment, and liquidity [3][4]

2025年4月11日-对现金的急切需求促使各类资产遭到抛售，其中包括美国国债。尽管存在通缩担忧，债券收益率近期却有所上升。 全球金融危机期间： 美联储选择量化宽松政策来支撑国债销售是否只是时间问题？如果美联储宣布量化宽松，这会是股市触底的信号吗？美联储会在实 施量化宽松前将利率降至零吗？ 回顾近期量化宽松的历史，可以发现一种常见模式：先是美联储降息，接着股市见顶，随后量化宽松政策启动，最后股市触底。 | | Event | Date | Fed Rate | S&P500 Drawdown from Peak | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | First rate cut 5&P peak | 17 Sep 2007 9 Oct 2007 | 5.25% (Peak) 4.75% | | | Global Financial Crisis | Fed balance sheet starts to expand in response to a money market fund "breaking the | 16 Sep 2008 | 2.00% | 19% | ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 4 月 18 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 1 位读者获赠本期推 荐好书！ 《金钱的力量》 【美】保罗·谢尔德（Paul Sheard） 著 孙树强 译 中译出版社 出版 内容简介 金钱渗透在我们日常生活的方方面面，它使经济世界得以运转。然而关于金钱的 困惑和争议却从来没停止过。在本书中，经济学家保罗·谢尔德通过阐述政府债 务、中央银行、量化宽松、货币创造财富和不平等、货币破坏性、国际货币、加 密货币等金钱的力量，提炼了货币是什么、是如何产生的，是如何与实体经济相 互作用的，以及这些力量将对世界经济产生怎样的影响。 同时，本书提出且回答了一些常见的经济问题，这些回答或许会给专业与非专业 读者带来新的启发，会为货币与宏观经济政策的解读提供新思路，会改变我们对 货币、金融市场和经济的看法，有助于公众更好地参与政策辩论、预测未来政策 发展。 作者简介 保罗·谢尔德（Paul Sheard） 美籍澳大利亚著名经济学家，哈佛大学肯尼迪学院高级研究员，世界经济论坛 （WEF）全球议程委员会成员，国际货币体系全球议程理事会成员。曾任标准普 尔全球执行副总裁、野村证券首席经济学家、雷曼兄弟公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].