Core Viewpoint - The copper sector in Hong Kong stocks has shown strong performance, driven by record-high copper prices and positive outlooks from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, Hong Kong copper stocks collectively surged, with Minmetals Resources and Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 6%, while Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by over 4% [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $11,540 per ton, influenced by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - JPMorgan remains optimistic about copper prices and copper stocks due to a structural supply-demand gap that is expected to support upward momentum [1] - The report forecasts zero growth in global mine supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has decided to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% by 2026, increasing the downside risk for global electrolytic copper supply and tightening market conditions [1] Group 3: Company Projections - JPMorgan identifies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum as top picks due to strong profit growth and diversified asset portfolios [1] - The expected refined copper market deficit is approximately 330,000 tons by 2026, with Zijin and Luoyang Molybdenum's profits projected to grow by 30% and 17% respectively, primarily driven by increased copper production [1] - Jiangxi Copper's profit growth is anticipated at 10%, maintaining a relatively low allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to supply tightening concerns, with the main contract increasing by approximately 2% and international copper rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The night trading session for copper in Shanghai saw a strong performance, breaking previous high points [1] - The main contract is currently experiencing a price increase of around 2% [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - Concerns over tightening supply have driven copper prices to new highs, leading to fluctuations within a high price range [1] - The LME copper cancellation warrants surged from 6,300 tons to 56,875 tons, indicating a significant increase [1] - Registered warrants have dropped by over 50,000 tons, marking the lowest level since late July of this year, raising concerns about potential future inventory declines [1]

银河证券发布研报称，矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨。此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美 铜"虹吸效应"导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的 停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。 消息面上，美国11月ADP就业人数意外减少3.2万，数据显示劳动力市场萎缩，使投资者增大了对美联 储将于下周降息的押注。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储在下周三降息的可能性为 89%。此外，CSPT近期达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。 智通财经APP获悉，铜业股全线高开，截至发稿，江西铜业股份(00358)涨4.34%，报35.12港元；五矿资 源(01208)涨4.04%，报8.5港元；中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨3.77%，报0.11港元；中国有色矿业(01258) 涨3.16%，报17.29港元。 ...

消息面上，美国11月ADP就业人数意外减少3.2万，数据显示劳动力市场萎缩，使投资者增大了对美联 储将于下周降息的押注。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储在下周三降息的可能性为 89%。此外，CSPT近期达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。 银河证券发布研报称，矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨。此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美 铜"虹吸效应"导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的 停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。 铜业股全线高开，截至发稿，江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.34%，报35.12港元；五矿资源 (01208)涨4.04%，报8.5港元；中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨3.77%，报0.11港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨 3.16%，报17.29港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that severe supply disruptions and global inventory imbalances will drive copper prices to reach $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Copper Market - The anticipated rise in copper prices is expected to influence aluminum prices, with projections indicating that aluminum could surpass $3,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [1]

格隆汇12月4日｜周三，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价周三创下历史新高，受美元走软、供应忧虑和 LME注册仓库供应紧张影响。Commodity Market Analytics董事总经理Dan Smith说："铜价在突破新高后 看涨，很有可能从此攀升至每吨12000美元。"铜价将创下2017年以来的最大年度涨幅，今年迄今已上涨 31%。LME数据显示，周二亚洲仓库净注销仓单50725吨，使铜注册仓单降至7月以来最低的105275吨， 这加剧了市场的看涨情绪。周三，LME现货铜较三个月合约的溢价为每吨86美元，为10月中旬以来最 高，表明近期供应紧张。嘉能可(Glencore)下调2026年铜产量预期，但表示计划到2035年实现160万吨的 年产量目标，这得益于新矿投产、旧矿复产以及运营效率提升。 ...

由于一系列大型矿山停产冲击全球供应，LME基准铜价今年以来已上涨逾30%。但美国期铜涨幅更大， 原因在于投资者押注，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将在明年年底前宣布对初级铜产品征收关税。 BMO Capital Markets Ltd．的大宗商品分析师Helen Amos表示："当然，铜的基本面非常强劲，投资者 也意识到矿业公司在维持和扩大供应方面面临真正的困难。但与此同时，美国和全球其他地区之间存在 价格套利，这可能是目前推动铜价上涨的最主要因素。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 铜价周三大涨并再创新高，此前投资者从伦敦金属交易所（LME）仓库中提取铜的订单激增，进一步 加剧了对供应的担忧，因为市场本已担心潜在的美国关税可能会引发全球供应紧张。 LME期铜一度上涨3.4%，每吨价格升至11，500美元以上，突破了周一创下的高点，此前LME的数据显 示，其亚洲仓库的铜提货订单出现激增。铜矿股也随之走高，智利铜生产商Antofagasta Plc股价大涨逾 5%，创历史新高。 近几周，随着越来越多交易员和分析师警告称，大量铜正被抢在关税实施前运往美国，全球库存可能很 快会被消耗至极低水平，铜 ...

智利《信使报》12月1日报道，因市场担忧全球铜供应将趋于紧张，伦敦金属交易 所（LME）铜价大幅飙升，创下历史最高纪录，交易价格达到每磅5.13美元，刷新了10 月29日创下的每磅5.02美元的前历史高点。今年以来，伦敦金属交易所铜价已累计上涨 近30%。 （原标题：伦敦铜价飙升至历史新高） ...

每经AI快讯，12月3日，LME伦铜向上触及11500美元/吨，最新报11502.27美元/吨，日内上涨3.21%。 ...

Industry Insights - Copper prices reached a historic high of $11,434 per ton on December 3, driven by a weaker dollar, supply concerns, and tightening metal supplies in LME registered warehouses [1] - As of 19:50 Beijing time, LME copper was reported at $11,410.5 per ton, reflecting a 2.38% increase [1] - The expansion of business activity in the Eurozone in November reached its fastest pace in two and a half years, further boosting bullish sentiment towards copper [1] - Analysts suggest that copper prices could potentially rise to $12,000 per ton following the recent highs, supported by strong market signals [1] - LME registered copper inventories have fallen to their lowest level since July, indicating strong interest from traders in exporting copper to the U.S. due to the price premium of NYMEX copper over LME copper [1] - Global copper mine production forecasts have been continuously revised downward due to frequent production disruptions this year, leading to significant uncertainty in copper supply for the upcoming year [1] - The negotiations for copper smelting and processing fees in 2026 are critical, with tight copper supply potentially leading to reduced production from smelting companies, which could further tighten refined copper supply and stimulate price increases [1] Company Insights - Companies such as Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper are mentioned in relation to the current copper market dynamics [2]