来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：上周临近尾盘，黄金短线快速下跌，大周期形态上也有走坏的迹象，目前来看价格尚未止 跌，不排除黄金牛市结束的可能。 综合来看，当下黄金的下跌主要是因为避险情绪的下降，随着美国政府重启，各项事务有重新回归正轨 的迹象。但本次达成的临时拨款法案仍留下隐患：按惯例，美国国会每年需通过12项拨款预算，但最新 通过的这一法案仅包含3项年度拨款预算，其余9项预算尚未敲定。在临时拨款法案生效期间，两党将继 续展开谈判。这意味着，两个多月后，美国联邦政府可能再次面临停摆危机。 国际能源署的最新报告显示，到2026年底之前国际原油供应过剩的压力将增大，今年全球原油供应量将 增加310万桶/日，高于先前预测的300万桶/日。将2026年供应增长预期从240万桶/日上调至250万桶/ 日。 供应端在增长，而需求端在走弱，国际能源署将今年的原油需求从预期的71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/ 日，2026年的原油需求预期从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日，但增幅都小于供应增幅，全球原油库存将 进一步上升。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，短期来看，随着避险情绪回落，前期多头获利盘了结，进而 带动黄金短线下跌 ...

Group 1: US Market Focus - The US inflation is gradually cooling down as tariff disruptions diminish, with companies slow to pass on tariff costs, leading to a mild increase in prices of imported sensitive consumer goods [15][21][24] - AI remains a core engine driving earnings upgrades in the US stock market, with significant contributions from companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm [25][28][36] - The expected revenue growth for US tech companies in 2026 is robust, with a structural upward revision in earnings forecasts, particularly in the information technology sector [30][33] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK GDP growth is continuously slowing, with a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, necessitating interest rate cuts to support the economy [42][44] - Key stocks to watch include Rolls-Royce Holdings and AstraZeneca, both of which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and reduced tariff disruptions [49][50] - The UK stock market shows a notable performance disparity, with financial and defense sectors performing well, while consumer and energy sectors lag [48]

Group 1: International News - Gold prices in the New York futures market experienced volatility, initially falling below $4,070 per ounce, down 0.57%, before recovering to surpass $4,090 and $4,100 per ounce, with daily increases of 0.01% and 0.18% respectively [1][2][3] - Spot gold also broke the $4,100 per ounce mark, with a daily increase of 0.42% [4] - The cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with Bitcoin erasing all gains for the year, dropping 1.8% to nearly $93,500, below the 2024 closing price of $93,714.04, indicating a worsening bear market [5] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP also saw declines of 3.37%, 3.36%, 4.51%, and 2.44% respectively [6][7] - In trade policy, New Zealand welcomed the U.S. decision to remove additional tariffs on its beef, offal, and kiwifruit but urged the U.S. to eliminate all extra tariffs on New Zealand goods [8] - The Thai government plans to continue negotiations for a reciprocal trade agreement with the U.S., emphasizing that these discussions are separate from the border dispute with Cambodia [9] - During the Dubai Airshow, Airbus is expected to outperform Boeing in securing a significant share of large aircraft orders, breaking Boeing's monopoly on orders from low-cost airlines [10] Group 2: Domestic News - No domestic financial news content is provided in the current information [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for the stock market, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively influence market performance [3][7][10]. Core Insights - The labor market shows signs of improvement, but the starting point remains low, with concerns about layoffs potentially exacerbated by AI [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a projected terminal rate of 3%-3.25% by mid-2026 [1][4][11]. - The stock market is currently at a crossroads, influenced by tariff cancellations and fiscal support, but faces risks from unstable data [6][10]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Analysis - Employment growth is improving, but the labor market tightness indicators are declining, raising concerns about potential layoffs [1][2]. - Alternative labor market data suggests worsening conditions, indicating that official employment data may not show significant improvement in the short term [4][13]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's friendly stance is expected to lead to interest rate cuts, with strong data potentially accelerating market recovery [3][7]. - If the labor market weakens, rate cuts may be implemented sooner than anticipated [4][11]. Market Outlook - The stock market is experiencing volatility, but there is optimism for a rebound towards the end of the year, driven by strong corporate earnings and seasonal factors [7][10]. - Despite recent market corrections, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for continued capital expenditure in 2026 [10][12]. Political Environment - The Democratic Party is negotiating on key issues like SNAP benefits and ACA, which could impact market dynamics [5]. - The potential for government shutdowns has diminished, but future funding debates will be critical to monitor [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend despite fluctuating interest rate expectations [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices, with significant year-to-date gains across various metal categories, particularly energy metals and precious metals [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical developments will continue to influence metal prices positively, particularly for gold and silver [4][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.15 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 77.71%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 60.09 percentage points [8]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Precious metals saw a price increase, with gold prices rising by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium, indicating a mixed performance with some metals experiencing price increases while others faced declines [15][17]. - Key companies in the industry are highlighted with their respective valuations, showing a range of price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 78.3, suggesting potential shifts in demand dynamics between these two precious metals [23]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in domestic social inventory and fluctuations in production rates [28]. - For aluminum, the report indicates an increase in downstream processing rates and a tightening supply-demand balance, suggesting a positive price outlook [42][44]. Small Metals - The report highlights the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices continue to rise due to strong demand in energy storage [9][17].

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $94,300 on November 15, with a current price of $96,187, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1][3] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 170,000 traders faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3] - Total liquidations reached approximately $677 million within 24 hours, with $203 million in the last 12 hours alone [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December is now uncertain due to incomplete economic data resulting from the recent government shutdown [4][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that she does not support a rate cut unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in inflation, which is currently on the rise [4][5] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding further rate cuts due to the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [5]

此外，微软涨1.3%，特斯拉涨0.6%，Meta跌0.1%，苹果跌0.2%，谷歌跌0.8%，亚马逊跌1.2%。美光科技涨4.2%，摩根士丹利表示，公司将受益于动态随 机存取存储器（DRAM）的供应短缺，并将该股的目标价从220美元上调至325美元。 | < W | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 65104.93 228.86 +0.35% | | | | 资料 成分 | 相关基金 资讯 | | 月度 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | 190.170 | 1.77% | | NVDA.O | | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | | 510.180 | 1.37% | | MSFT.O | | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 404.350 | 0.59% | | TSLA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | | 609.460 | -0.07% | | META.O | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 272.410 | -0.20% ...

Core Insights - The report by Hanya Investment focuses on the evolution of global trade patterns, central bank interest rate cuts, and policy stimulus, reviewing market performance in Q3 2025 and predicting trends for Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Market Performance Overview - Global markets experienced a broad rally in Q3 2025, driven by the extension of the US-China trade truce, optimism surrounding AI, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 7.8%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 11.2%. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets with a 10.9% rise, led by China's A-shares (+20.8%) and Taiwan (+14.7%), while India saw a decline of 6.6% [7][8] - Fixed income markets showed volatility, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds led with a 4.8% increase [10] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rose by 0.9% but was down 9.9% year-to-date. The Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar performed well, while the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won depreciated significantly [11] Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook indicates differentiated growth, with the US and East Asian economies expected to slow down in Q4 2025 and into H1 2026. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December [2][16] - China's economic growth may decline due to a slowdown in credit growth, with GDP growth targets for 2026 set between 4.5% and 5%. New stimulus policies will focus on consumer subsidies and technology investments [17] - India's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, while ASEAN economies are relying on domestic demand and policy easing to counteract growth slowdowns [2][16] Monetary Policy and Currency Outlook - The monetary policy environment is entering a loosening phase, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue rate cuts and end quantitative tightening. Other Asian central banks, including those in China and India, are also expected to lower rates [21] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3%-5% in 2026, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate moderately. Other Asian currencies are expected to remain weak until a clear trend of dollar depreciation emerges [2][21] Asset Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a short-term optimistic stance on risk assets, particularly in emerging and Asian markets, while maintaining a neutral long-term outlook. In fixed income, US Treasuries are favored, along with emerging market dollar bonds and Asian credit bonds [3][29] - The report highlights ongoing policy stimulus in Asia, with countries like China, India, and Indonesia implementing measures such as fiscal transfers, tax cuts, and credit support to boost economic recovery [3][17]

Market Performance - On November 14, U.S. stock indices experienced a collective drop at the opening, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 quickly narrowing their losses, while the Dow Jones continued to decline significantly [1] - By the close, the Dow Jones fell by 0.65%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.13% [1] Company Movements - Bridgewater Associates sold 65.3% of its Nvidia shares, reducing its holdings from 723,000 shares to 251,000 shares, making Nvidia one of its top sells [5] - Oracle's stock rose over 2%, while Nvidia and Microsoft saw gains of over 1%. In contrast, Netflix dropped over 3%, and both Intel and Amazon fell by over 1% [2] - SoftBank Group liquidated all its Nvidia shares, cashing out $5.83 billion, while Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang has sold over $1 billion worth of Nvidia stock since June [5] Analyst Ratings - Citigroup maintained a "buy" rating for Nvidia, raising its target price from $210 to $220 per share, addressing investor concerns regarding AI capital expenditure [5] - Analysts noted that despite worries about AI investment funding, the supply of AI chips will remain below demand until 2026 due to limited advanced packaging capacity [6] - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 28, which is more attractive compared to its peers Broadcom at 38 and AMD at 37 [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices saw a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 3% during the day and closing down more than 2% [8] - Oil prices increased, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising by 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel, and Brent crude up by 1.97% to $64.25 per barrel [8] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, dropping below the $95,000 mark, with a current price of approximately $94,800, reflecting a nearly 5% decrease [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers have intensified warnings about the potential slowdown or stagnation of inflation progress, raising questions about the possibility of further actions in December [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Officials generally believe that the labor market has cooled down, but there are divisions in predictions regarding whether this slowdown will intensify [1] - Some officials maintain an optimistic view on price pressures, while others caution that the current interest rate levels are insufficient to restrain the economy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The ongoing public debate among Federal Reserve officials is unusual and reflects the difficulty in interpreting the current economic situation [1] - Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, faces challenges in achieving consensus on the direction of monetary policy [1]