Core Viewpoint - The unexpectedly strong performance of January employment data does not imply that policymakers should pause further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - Milan indicated that planned supply-side reforms, such as reducing business regulations, along with expectations of a slowdown in housing inflation, will clear the way for policymakers to continue lowering the benchmark interest rate [1] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has opposed the majority view at every policy meeting, advocating for a larger rate cut than other officials are prepared to support [1]

美联储米兰：1月份的就业数据并不意味着不能降息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has experienced significant volatility, dropping nearly 33% from its all-time high in January 2025, but recent fundamentals suggest a potential for recovery and investment opportunities in silver [1][2][3]. Price Movement - Silver's price surged from approximately $31 per ounce in January 2025 to $115 per ounce in January of the current year, before falling back to $77 between January 20 and February 5 [1]. - Recently, silver's price has rebounded to above $80 per ounce, although it remains significantly lower than its recent highs [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to a stronger dollar, reduced demand at high price levels, and concerns regarding the AI boom that previously supported prices [2]. - Speculative buying in China has contributed to increased volatility in silver prices, which are generally more unstable than gold due to a smaller market [2]. Future Outlook - A weaker dollar and anticipated lower interest rates are expected to support a potential silver rally [4]. - Futures traders are predicting at least two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could further benefit precious metals [5]. - The demand for silver is also linked to the AI sector, particularly due to its necessity in the construction of data centers, with hyperscalers projected to spend at least $625 billion on AI infrastructure this year [6]. Investment Vehicle - For those looking to invest in silver, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEMKT: SLV) is recommended, as it represents physical silver holdings with net assets of approximately $51 billion [7].

各位投资者，大家好，我是东吴证券的首席经济学家鲁哲。在这里，我跟大家交流讨论一 下我们这次对货币政策近期的一些判断。这就是我们每天一次的这个早班机，每天 10 分 钟，我们都会跟大家交流交流市场观点、经济变化或者重要的事件，一些回顾梳理。近期 我们能够感觉到，其实对市场的降息预期又有所提升。那么站在这个时点，其实也即将进 入春节，然后很快又是两会，这样的一个分歧或者说预期有变化也是比较正常的。但实际 上我们相对的看法，首先我们认为近期或者一季度，大概率不太可能会出现类似降息这样 的行为。 全年的降息次次数，我们觉得 0~1 次，应该也不会特别多或者特别大的这个量，10 个 BP 左右。那么降准，全年的概率相对大一些。我们觉得，比如说一到两次，大概，比如说 50 个 BP 左右，这是我们整体的对这个降息降准的全年和这个当季度的一个判断。首先我们 为什么说觉得近期，一季度不像是有太大可能性去操作 OMO、 LPR 这种政策利率下调的 原因。第一就是我们非常清楚，现在目前降息最核心的制约因素，最核心的掣肘是什么？ 非常明显，就是银行的净息差问题。 十年之前降 10 个 BP，和十年之后的今天降 10 个 BP 是不 ...

美联储施密德：进一步降息可能导致通胀持续。通胀率高于2%时，需求似乎超过了供给。 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月11日｜路透社的一项经济学家调查显示，美联储将在鲍威尔5月任期结束前维持基准利率不 变，但在6月会立即降息。同时，受访者担心其继任者凯文·沃什领导下的政策风险可能过于宽松。超过 70%的经济学家(主要来自银行和金融机构)表示，他们担心鲍威尔离任后美联储的独立性将受到严重侵 蚀。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce in the short term, while silver prices are projected to range from $65 to $100 per ounce [2][3] - The recent high of London gold reached nearly $5,600 per ounce before a significant pullback, with a recent rebound to $5,000 per ounce and decreasing volatility [2][3] - The newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman's advocacy for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction has reversed previous expectations of continued balance sheet expansion, leading to a sharp correction in gold and overall commodity and stock markets, with gold prices dropping to $4,400 per ounce at one point [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent price drop, the U.S. dollar remains weak, and if the balance sheet reduction process does not proceed as scheduled, gold may continue to maintain high levels due to ongoing global political and economic uncertainties [2][3] - Silver has also been affected by expectations of balance sheet reduction, compounded by its stronger speculative nature and severe overbought conditions, resulting in a historically rare pullback [2][3] - Global physical silver inventories remain low, ETF holdings have not decreased, and spot premiums remain high, indicating that despite significant price corrections, the tightness in the silver spot market has not been substantively resolved, necessitating further observation of delivery situations [2][3]

2月11日：上交易日周二（2月10日）：国际黄金震荡收跌，虽然美国12月零售销售意外停滞，推动金价 一度拉升，但美联储官员却淡化降息紧迫性，白宫高官驳斥就业转差论，随后迅速回吐涨幅，未能进一 步走强，多头动力缓解，但也仍运行在布林带中轨上方，暗示后市仍有再度走强攀升的预期。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5058.44美元/盎司，变快速震荡，走出日内振幅空间，显示触及5076美元 一线，后又回落触及4987.28美元日低点，之后止跌，日内处于持续震荡行情，到美盘时段微幅走强录 得日内高点5078.39美元，便再度遇阻回落，继续陷入震荡，最终收于5025.33美元，日振幅91.11美元， 收跌33.11美元，跌幅0.65%。 但日内将关注美国美国1月季调后非农就业人口（万人），市场预期将偏向高于前值，而利空金价，将 会限制日内反弹动力，不过由于上周公布的ADP和周初请数据走低，预计非农数据或会低于预期而利好 金价，再加上美国1月平均每小时工资年率的预期下降，故此，就算符合预期或者是超预期增加，金价 也是震荡走盘波动。所以，操作还是低多为主，空为辅即可。 基本面上，虽然美联储哈玛克：美联储今年无迫切降息必要，但特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of macroeconomic benefits and increased supply disruptions have led to a significant rise in the non-ferrous mining sector, with the mining ETF (561330) surging over 3.5% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has largely absorbed the liquidity shock from Trump's nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, allowing metal pricing to return to fundamentals [1] - Despite a recent accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has diminished, indicating a decent operating rate during the off-season [1] - As prices adjust in the short term, downstream acceptance has noticeably improved, suggesting a potential for continued performance in commodities with improved supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - According to Wind data, the mining ETF (561330) is projected to have a year-on-year increase of 106.11% in 2025, ranking first among ten ETFs in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The ETF exhibits a concentrated leadership with a higher proportion of "gold, copper, and rare earths," indicating a strong focus on these key commodities [1]

美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于今晚发布延迟的1月非农报告，同时进行年度基准修正和方法论更新。市 场预计此次修正将抹去约100万个就业岗位，这是美国就业统计史上规模最大的下修之一。 根据BLS初步估计，2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长将下修75万至90万个岗位。此外，BLS还将 更新2025年4月至12月期间的企业出生-死亡预测数据，预计将再减少50万至70万个岗位。这意味着截至 2025年12月的非农就业数据中，多达100万个就业岗位实际上从未存在。 周三，据ZeroHedge及相关分析指出，此次修正将显著改变美国劳动力市场的实际状况。修正后的数据 将显示，劳动力市场早在2024年中期就已跌破"失速线"，当时三个月移动平均就业增长仅为5.5万，远 低于维持失业率稳定所需的18万。在经过季节性调整后，2025年至少有五个月的就业增长为负值。 此次调整的核心在于BLS终于决定修复其备受争议的"出生-死亡调整"模型。该模型此前因未能准确剔 除疫情期间为获取PPP贷款而产生的"虚假公司"数据，导致就业统计长期失真。新的计算方法将引入实 时样本信息，虽然长期看有助于提高数据准确性，但短期内将导致就业数据出现剧 ...