风险控制

Search documents
特朗普炮轰美联储,美国重演股债汇三杀!黄金站上3400美元!刘强东亲自送外卖!美团再辟谣二选一!服务业扩大开放新增9个试点城市!
新浪财经· 2025-04-22 01:03
昨天,发生了哪些财经大事? 美国遭股债汇"三杀" 当地时间4月21日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文,再次敦促美国联 邦储备委员会作出降息决定。 特朗普在帖文中宣称"美国实际上已不存在通胀,能源、食品 及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此显著,几乎不可能引发通胀。但如果'太迟先生'(指美 联储主席鲍威尔)不立即降息,美国经济将面临放缓风险。" 特朗普近来频繁施压鲍威尔, 要求美联储立即降息,并称鲍威尔的行动总是"又迟又错","越早走人越好"。 美国资产周一重演股债汇三杀,美股大幅收跌,道指跌971.82点,跌幅2.48%;纳指跌 2.55%,标普500指数跌2.36% ;大型科技股普跌,特斯拉跌近6%,英伟达、甲骨文跌超 4%,亚马逊、Meta跌超3%,微软、谷歌、AMD、台积电跌逾2%,苹果跌近2%。 美债波动率也再度回升,长期美债的抛售导致收益率曲线急剧变陡。彭博衡量的美国政府债 券与全球同类债券的比率已跌至2024年3月以来的最低水平,凸显出美国国债表现的迅速 恶化。美元指数跌0.88%报98.35,创三年来新低,盘中一度连续跌破99、98两大整数位 关口;美元兑日元跌破141关口,跌0. ...
可持续的超额收益是绝对收益的时间积分形态
中泰证券资管· 2025-04-18 05:16
超额(相对)收益与绝对收益真的是不可兼得的鱼和熊掌吗?长期主义者会给出不一样的答案——可持续 的超额(相对)收益本质上是绝对收益的时间积分形态。 物理学家费曼说:"量子力学之所以难以理解,是因为我们总用经典世界的语言描述它。"资本市场同样如 此——当投资者用线性思维理解非线性的收益获得机制,必然陷入认知困境,如粒子位置与动量不可同时 精确测定一样。 在投资领域同样存在"风险、收益、可持续性"的不确定性三角 : ★ 宣称高绝对收益者,往往承受隐性尾部风险(长期资本管理公司的陨落); ★ 标榜可持续性者,常以牺牲收益锐度为代价(固定收益类产品的平庸回报); ★ 追求超额收益者,难逃时间维度的均值回归(连续跑赢市场的主动管理基金数量了了)。 对投资者而言,就像一场在迷雾中前行的冒险,收益的测不准性让投资领域充满了悬念与变数,许多投资 者陷入"超额(相对)收益与绝对收益对立"的思维困境。 这并非文字游戏,而是数学规律的必然。当某组合每年以2%的幅度持续跑赢标普500指数,30年后的累计 超额收益将高达81.1%,相当于在美股百年长牛的贝塔地基上,用阿尔法的复利魔法建造出一座收益金字 塔。 历史反复验证:当管理人以长期 ...
公司快评|担保逾期后再加码担保额度遭董事反对,创兴资源应强化风险评估与监控
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-04-02 03:10
今年3月,创兴资源为全资子公司交替科技提供的担保已经出现逾期。去年8月和5月,创兴资源分别与 南京银行和宁波银行签订担保合同,为交替科技提供担保,金额均为1000万元。然而,截至2025年2月 28日和3月10日,交替科技未能按期偿还借款本金,导致创兴资源对外担保债务发生逾期,逾期金额分 别约为379.11万元和882.12万元。在这样的背景下,创兴资源仍计划为子公司新增担保额度,这一决策 引发了市场的广泛关注。公司表示,目前担保总额为5000万元,占上市公司最近一期经审计净资产的比 例为16.85%,且新担保计划将严格控制风险,不会损害中小股东利益。 然而,从过往情况来看,佟鑫的反对意见并非没有道理。去年11月和12月,佟鑫曾因《子公司管理制 度》修订内容与股份转让协议约定不一致、聘任的公司总裁缺乏上市公司高管从业经历等问题,在董事 会上投出反对票。这反映出公司内部治理和决策过程中可能存在一定的分歧和隐患。 创兴资源的担保决策,既体现了对子公司业务发展的支持,也暴露了潜在的风险。新增担保额度有助于 子公司获取资金支持,满足日常经营需求,增强资金运用的灵活性。但担保逾期事件已经暴露出公司在 风险控制方面的不足 ...
民航福建监管局对三明机场开展年度安全适用性检查
Zhong Guo Min Hang Wang· 2025-03-31 01:23
(民航福建监管局供图) 检查组聚焦机场运行安全关键领域,针对飞行区管理、客货保障、网络安全、空防安全、作风建设及应 急管理等核心模块,通过查阅手册、核对台账、实地踏勘、岗位问询、视频调阅等多维度核查方式,实 施"全链条、全要素"穿透式检查。 检查通报会上,监管局专业监察员对2024年三明机场"一企一策"分析报告进行了解读,并通报了检查情 况和整改问题,提出相关安全工作建议。监管局领导强调了四点要求:一是强化政治担当,认真落实国 务院、民航上级安全生产会议的有关部署要求,落实落细企业安全生产主体责任,始终坚持安全第一, 不断筑牢安全底线;二是针对近期行业的典型不安全事件,要紧盯各类安全通告,狠抓责任落实,加强 安全隐患排查治理工作,严格遵守操作规程,进一步提高航班服务保障质量;三是要坚持强化问题导向 和目标导向,针对突出安全风险采取有力措施加以防范,确保安全风险可控、隐患动态清零;四是要做 好航班换季运行保障工作,针对雷雨季节来临和新航司首航本场等运行因素,要加强风险控制,全力确 保航班运行正常。(编辑:李佳洹 校对:许浩存 审核:韩磊) 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者胡夕姮 通讯员王旭 报道:为扎实推进安全 ...
兴业银行:董事长致辞点评:价值银行,价值发现-20250331
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-31 01:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a value bank with a focus on enhancing customer value, which is expected to reduce medium to long-term uncertainties. The combination of high dividends and low valuation is anticipated to drive value recovery [1][5] - The company is implementing refined operations to enhance profitability from its existing customer base, which includes 110 million retail customers and 1.5 million corporate clients. This is expected to narrow the profitability gap with leading banks [2] - There is an improvement in asset quality, with a downward trend in non-performing loans (NPLs) expected to continue, indicating a positive shift in risk management [3] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, reinforcing the dividend logic and driving valuation recovery. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to be 30.2%, up from 29.6% in 2023, with a corresponding dividend yield of 4.92% [4] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts a slight increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 0.42%, 4.45%, and 5.46% respectively. The book value per share (BPS) is projected to be 39.35, 41.98, and 44.77 yuan for the same years [5] - The company's revenue is expected to show fluctuations, with a projected revenue of 212.23 billion yuan for 2024, followed by a decrease to 204.67 billion yuan in 2025, and then a recovery in subsequent years [6][11]
从亏 37 倍到期权亚军,黄旭东的期权致胜之道!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-03-25 11:36
黄旭东说"走进期权市场,是因为意识到期权是个很好的工具。国外期权市场发展非常好,中国将来也是这样,相信期权的魅力会有光芒四射的时候。" 0 2 期权亚军之路 从亏 37 倍到期权亚军,黄旭东的期权致胜之道! 在第十届全国期货(期权)实盘交易大赛中,黄旭东获得期权组亚军。他在接受采访时说的: "我参赛就想拿个奖玩玩,最后真的兑现了。" 0 1 初入期权市场 黄旭东的期权之路开始于2014年底,随着即将推出国内第一个期权品种的消息不胫而走,全国的证券和期货公司便开始了期权普及和推广之路,黄旭东老 师就是第一批被普及的人。他经常去证券营业部参加期权知识讲座,自学很多期权的书,还跟台湾的期权老师学习。彼时国内期权市场尚未成熟,但他敏 锐地察觉到这一新兴市场的潜力。便在2015年2月9日,国内第一个期权品种上证50ETF期权正式交易当天,他毫不犹豫地参与交易, 成为当天参与交易 的492个人当中的一员,成为最早一批参与期权交易的投资者。 2016年,黄旭东迎来了自己期权交易生涯的高光时刻。在第十届全国期货(期权)实盘交易大赛中,他凭借出色的交易技巧和稳健的策略, 一举夺得期 权组亚军。这一成就不仅让他在期权市场中声名鹊 ...
邓晓峰恢复增持!紫金矿业陈景河最新交流:黄金是未来投资并购非常重要的一个方向
聪明投资者· 2025-03-25 03:15
Core Viewpoint - The long-term pricing logic of copper is clear, with rigid supply from mines supporting prices. The geopolitical impact and extensive money printing by central banks have led to a rise in gold prices, making gold a significant focus for future investments and acquisitions [1][28]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 303.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.1 billion yuan, up 51.8%, with overseas contributions accounting for 56% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7.441 billion yuan, with an additional 2.658 billion yuan in mid-year dividends, bringing the total annual dividend to over 10 billion yuan [1]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 61.9 billion yuan, with copper contributing 40%, gold 30%, zinc (lead) 5%, and other segments 20% [1]. Production and Reserves - By the end of 2024, the company had copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, gold reserves of 1,487 tons, and zinc (lead) production of 804 tons. The 2025 targets include 1.15 million tons of copper, 850 tons of gold, and 440,000 tons of lead and zinc [2]. Market Performance - The company's stock price increased by 19.38% as of March 24, 2024, reaching 18.05 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 479.7 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Activity - Notable shareholders have shown mixed activity, with some reducing their holdings while others have increased their stakes. For instance, public funds significantly reduced their holdings by 13.44 billion shares in the fourth quarter after increasing by 2.07 billion shares in the third quarter [5][6][7]. Acquisition Strategy - The company emphasizes acquiring in-production projects for immediate effects and focuses on high-value acquisitions without overpaying. The strategy includes selecting projects based on mineral type, geographic location, and risk control [11][12][37]. - Recent acquisitions include the La Arena copper-gold mine in Peru, purchased for $300 million, showcasing the company's ability to identify high-value opportunities even in a high-price environment [21][26]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a "macro big year" and "fundamental small year" for copper in 2025, with a clear long-term demand growth outlook driven by the renewable energy sector and infrastructure development [60][62]. - The company is committed to enhancing its digital information platform and AI applications to improve operational efficiency and management systems [64][68]. Risk Management - The company places significant emphasis on risk control, particularly in light of geopolitical uncertainties. It aims to foster local economic development and adhere to strict compliance standards to mitigate risks [41][46][49].
对话菁英投顾——“才财财”主创盛才
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-03-18 02:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing as a foundation, balancing risk and position control, and dynamically adjusting strategies to safeguard wealth in a fluctuating market environment [1]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is particularly suited for investors who lack the time to monitor market dynamics, do not have their own trading systems, and possess limited analytical skills [4]. - The investment approach is summarized as value investing, focusing on balancing risk and position control while dynamically adjusting to seize opportunities [5]. Timing and Analysis - Timing in stock trading can be approached from various angles, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market sentiment, and a comprehensive strategy. There is no absolute method for timing, and investors should consider multiple factors based on their risk tolerance and investment goals [5]. - A foundational investment framework is established, starting with stocks that exhibit a certain level of trading activity, followed by fundamental analysis to identify suitable candidates [6]. Valuation and Margin of Safety - The assessment of margin of safety and valuation involves both subjective and objective elements. Investors rely on experience and intuition for qualitative factors, while quantitative methods based on financial data provide a more objective valuation [7]. - Daily investment practices include using relative and absolute valuation methods combined with fundamental analysis to determine stock valuations [7]. Stock Selection Logic - A time hypothesis is set for investments, and if a stock does not appreciate, a reassessment of the broader market direction and the stock's trend and volume is conducted to decide on potential removal from the portfolio [9]. - A risk warning mechanism is established, setting key risk indicators such as significant price support levels and major negative news to issue alerts for timely action [10]. Industry Preferences and Commonalities - There is no specific industry preference; however, stocks are selected based on trading volume, with a tendency to favor current hot topics when conditions are similar [11]. Importance of Odds and Win Rates - Both odds and win rates are crucial in investment strategies, with their importance varying based on the investment context. A balanced approach is necessary, with a focus on win rates for stable returns and odds for high returns [11]. Dividend Significance - Dividends are highlighted as an important aspect of investment, reflecting a company's profitability and providing stable returns. Reinvesting dividends can lead to compounding effects, making them significant in long-term and value investing [12].
当我问DeepSeek:35岁在上海有多少存款才能躺平?普通人也能实现!
天天基金网· 2025-03-01 01:49
Core Insights - The article discusses the financial planning necessary for individuals at the age of 35 in Shanghai, focusing on savings and investment strategies to achieve financial independence or "lying flat" [1][5]. Group 1: Savings Goals Calculation - A conservative savings model suggests that to "lie flat" in Shanghai, one needs approximately 300 million to 800 million CNY, depending on lifestyle choices and living conditions [4]. - Basic living costs in Shanghai are estimated to be between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY per month, translating to an annual expenditure of about 84,000 to 150,000 CNY [4]. - The 4% rule indicates that annual expenses divided by 4% equals the required savings, suggesting that for an annual expenditure of 150,000 CNY, a savings of 3.75 million CNY is needed [4]. Group 2: Alternative Plans for Insufficient Savings - If savings are insufficient, a "semi-lie flat" approach can be adopted, which includes reducing living costs and creating passive income streams [3][4]. - Suggested cost-cutting measures include moving to a second or third-tier city to reduce living expenses by 30-50% and controlling non-essential spending [4]. - Passive income can be generated through low-risk investments, skill monetization, and rental income from properties [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article outlines a two-phase investment strategy: high-growth investments in the first five years followed by a more stable approach in the latter five years [8][11]. - The first phase focuses on equity investments, with a suggested allocation of 70% in equity funds and 20% in thematic industry funds [8]. - The second phase aims for a target annual return of 8-10%, with a shift towards bonds and dividend-paying assets to reduce volatility [13]. Group 4: Risk Management and Emergency Plans - Key risk management strategies include maintaining an emergency fund equivalent to six months of living expenses and diversifying investments to mitigate market risks [12][14]. - Insurance coverage is recommended to protect against significant health or accident-related expenses, ensuring that savings are not depleted [12][14]. Group 5: Execution Recommendations - Immediate actions include starting a systematic investment plan in selected funds and conducting quarterly reviews to adjust asset allocations as needed [15][16]. - A five-year milestone is suggested to evaluate progress towards financial goals, with adjustments made if targets are not met [17]. Group 6: Long-term Financial Outlook - By following the outlined savings and investment strategies, individuals have a high probability of accumulating between 3.5 million to 5 million CNY in ten years [18].
开了天眼就能在股市赚钱么?
伍治坚证据主义· 2024-10-14 06:12
美国著名的畅销书(《黑天鹅》)作家,纳西姆·塔勒布曾经在推特上发过这么一句话: 如果你提前 24 小时告诉一位股民接下来要发生的新闻事件,我估计 他不到一年就会破产。 乍一看,这句话让人摸不着头脑。对于在股市中搏杀的投资者们来说,最重要的技能莫过于预测未来。如果我可以提前知道,明天央行会升息还是降息,统 计局发布的就业率数据是高了还是低了,通胀率和贸易顺差或逆差为多少,然后提前布局(比如买入或者卖出股票),那赚钱不是板上钉钉的事么? 然而,现实要比想象复杂得多。为了验证预知未来是否能帮助投资者包赚不赔,美国的两位研究人员做了一个非常有趣的实测,并统计分析了实验结果 (Haghani and White, 2024)。 这个实验是这样设计的:每个参加人员的起始资金为100万美元。他有15次机会进行交易,选择买或者卖美国股票和30年债券。在决定买或者卖之后,他也 可以选择加杠杆,最高可以达到50倍杠杆。 这15次交易机会,是从2008到2022的15年间随机选出的15天。参加人员随机选到任何一天后,同时可以阅读该 交易日后一天 的《华尔街日报》头版。也就 是说,在你做出交易决策(买还是卖,买卖多少)前,其实你已经 ...