一般来说，黄金ETF于11-12月期间的季节性表现一向偏弱，即使处于牛市阶段亦然。历史数据显示， 这两个月份往往出现赎回规模达高峰的情况，即使在2020年及2024年等市场强势年份亦不例外。 尽管如此，道富投资管理认为在当前宏观环境下，若2025年底出现任何潜在获利回吐，反而将为投资者 带来买入机会。 道富投资管理表示，若2026年黄金测试4800-5000美元，该行并不会感到意外。虽然黄金在10月上旬可 能已进入超买区域，但从多项指标来看，黄金在投资组合中仍属持仓比例偏低的资产。 尽管金价屡创新高，2025年第三季度实物黄金需求仍出人意料地强韧，同比增长3%，总需求量环比增 至1313吨的历史新高。 道富投资管理发表每月黄金监测报告。该行上调了黄金价格的基本情景，预测金价将介乎3700-4100美 元(机率50%)，同时将乐观情景的预测价格上调至4100-4500美元(机率35%)。在悲观情景中，该行预测 金价为3300-3700美元(机率15%)，根据黄金技术面走势及9月美联储会议后进一步洗走因错失恐惧 (FOMO)带来的资金，这一价格区间已构成逢低买入时机。 ...

摘要今日周五（11月7日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4000美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3996.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.52%，最高上探至4001.32美元/盎司，最低触及3973.19美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周五（11月7日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4000美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3996.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.52%，最高上探至4001.32美元/盎司，最低触及3973.19美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 隔夜黄金延续震荡格局，盘中金价一度下探至3960附近，但随后一根大阳线强势拉升，直冲3990一线。 由此可见，当前黄金仍处于震荡态势，不过我们看涨的决心坚定不移，目标仍锁定在4030一线，现价 3988可直接做多。 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，尽管美国总统特朗普多次公开呼吁降低利率，但他相信美联储将 保持政策独立性。 从黄金日线级别来看，正如昨日所分析，底部筑底信号明显。一根底部阳线强势止住跌势，且昨日收出 十字星，形成启明之星形态。目前K线已稳稳站上50均线，成功突破压制，关键的3950支撑位也得以守 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government's policy towards gold trading is to encourage market-oriented practices, aiming to enhance transparency and regulatory efficiency in the gold market [1] Policy Intentions - The recent gold tax policy is designed to guide gold trading towards on-market transactions, making trading more standardized and centralized [1] - The policy aims to improve the transparency of gold trading and the effectiveness of regulation [1] - It seeks to strengthen the mechanism for diverting gold investment and consumption demand [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, the central price of gold is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold is encouraged, as it is exempt from value-added tax [1] - The gold ETF (518800) has a circulation scale exceeding 250 billion, and the gold stock ETF (517400) covers stocks across the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a critical phase following a significant rise and subsequent pullback in gold prices, with institutional investors maintaining a positive medium-term outlook despite short-term profit-taking [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite recent price corrections, institutional investors remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, predicting an average price of $4,980 per ounce by the next LBMA meeting in October 2026 [1][2] - The report highlights a remarkable demand surge in Q3 2025, with total demand from investors and central banks reaching approximately 950 tons, equivalent to about $106 billion, which is nearly 50% higher than the average of the previous four quarters [1] Group 2: Short-term Focus and ETF Flows - Many institutional investors have taken profits during the recent price surge and are now assessing the timing and price for re-entry, with a focus on the "stickiness" of recent ETF flows [3] - Data shows a net outflow of about 35 tons from global gold ETFs over the past two weeks, which is only half of the record inflow of 62 tons recorded in the week ending October 17 [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - The report emphasizes that ongoing, price-insensitive purchases by global central banks are a cornerstone supporting the long-term bull market for gold [7] - In Q3 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an annualized purchase rate of 880 tons [7][10] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence in physical demand, with gold jewelry demand declining by 19% year-on-year in Q3 2025, particularly in India where it fell by 31% [11] - Conversely, retail demand for gold bars and coins has remained robust, growing by 17% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in jewelry demand [12][15] Group 5: Potential Risks and Market Dynamics - The report warns of potential risks related to gold recycling supply, which has seen only moderate growth despite high prices, with a 1% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 2025 [16] - A market dynamic to watch is the potential for panic selling if market sentiment reverses, which could lead to a surge in recycled gold supply and exacerbate downward price pressure [17]

明星科技股中，AMD跌近6%，赛富时跌近5%，甲骨文跌近4%，Meta跌近2%，英伟达、特斯拉跌超 1%。不过，热门中概股盘初上扬，纳斯达克中国金龙指数一度涨近2%。小鹏汽车涨幅扩大至逾11%， 百度涨超5%，禾赛涨近5%，阿里涨超3%。 在美联储官员公开讲话后，黄金、白银、原油直线跳水。美联储官员的最新表态给12月降息泼了盆冷 水：美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee表示，劳动力市场略有降温，但在通胀数据缺席的情况下，提前降息 会感到不安。他表态："中期来看，我对利率并不鹰派。" 而在美联储官员讲话之前，黄金一度拉升，站上4000美元关口。 另外，美国企业10月裁员人数创7个月来最高水平，这意味着，美联储重视的美国劳动力市场表现疲 软。根据美国就业咨询公司"挑战者企业"最新发布的一份报告显示，美国雇主在10月份宣布裁员超过15 万人，比去年同期增加了175%，比上个月增加了183%。美国私人数据提供商Revelio Labs数据也显示， 美国10月份非农就业岗位减少了9100个。 今夜无眠：美股、黄金、白银、原油全线跳水。 美股三大指数盘初集体走低，截至发稿，纳指跌幅扩大至1%。 消息面上，世界黄金协会最新公 ...

大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要来聊聊黄金新规，11月1日黄金税收新规一实施，不少人看着家里的黄金就犯了愁：奶奶传下来的那根金条，以后还 能卖上个好价钱不？媳妇手上戴的金镯子，会不会慢慢没人要了？之前金店买的那些金豆子，现在算不算买亏了？ 新规落地后普通人的三大疑惑与现实冲击 最明显的变化就是黄金首饰变现难了，价格还得往下压，以前咱们都觉得金镯子、金项链是"硬通货"，真要是急着用钱，拿去金店一卖就能换钱，只要金子 成色好，价格都不会差。 可现在不一样了，金店收那些不是从官方渠道来的黄金，得额外交一笔增值税，而且这税还没法抵扣。 其实这些担心都不是空穴来风，新规确实给咱们老百姓持有和交易黄金带来了实实在在的影响，难道老百姓手里的黄金要贬值了？ 人家总不能自己亏本吧，自然就得把回收价压下来，以前100克金首饰能卖9000块，现在说不定只能拿到七八千，这就意味着，金首饰的"投资属性"基本没 了，以后也就是戴着好看、留个念想的东西。 还有那些在非官方渠道买的金条、金豆子，现在想变现也麻烦，过去大家图方便，小区附近的金店就能买金条，觉得"看得见摸得着"才放心。 可新规实施后，没有上海黄金交易所或者上海期货交易所开的凭 ...

Core Insights - The international gold market price is quoted at $3955.9 per ounce, while domestic gold prices have been adjusted to 907.8 yuan per gram, with various brands offering different retail prices [1] Jewelry Brand Gold Price Reference - Chow Tai Fook: 1265 yuan per gram [2] - Luk Fook Jewelry: 1259 yuan per gram [1] - Chow Sang Sang: 1260 yuan per gram [3] - Lao Feng Xiang: 1260 yuan per gram [2] - Lao Miao Gold: 1260 yuan per gram [3] - Zhou Liufu: 1247 yuan per gram [4] - Zhou Dazheng: 1255 yuan per gram [5] - China Gold: 1180 yuan per gram [6] Platinum and Palladium Prices - Platinum prices have decreased, with Industrial and Commercial Bank's paper platinum at $1532.65 per ounce, down by $10.20 (0.66%) [7] - In RMB, paper platinum prices also fell, with a price of 351.40 yuan per gram, down by 2.44 yuan (0.69%) [7] - Palladium prices also saw a decline, with Industrial and Commercial Bank's paper palladium at $1374.88 per ounce, down by $5.23 (0.38%) [8] - In RMB, paper palladium prices decreased to 316.12 yuan per gram, down by 1.30 yuan (0.41%) [8] Gold Coin Collections and Prices - Panda Gold Set (2025 version): 56120 yuan per set [9] - 1g Panda Gold Coin: 1258 yuan each [9] - 3g Panda Gold Coin: 3472 yuan each [9] - 8g Panda Gold Coin: 3612 yuan each [9] - 15g Panda Gold Coin: 14880 yuan each [9] - 30g Panda Gold Coin: 28005 yuan each [9] - 100g Panda Gold Coin: 78270 yuan each [9] - 150g Panda Gold Coin: 127815 yuan each [9] - 1kg Gold Coin: 90000 yuan each [9] - 150g Colored Coin: 88000 yuan each [9] - Fan-shaped Gold and Silver Commemorative Coin: 7500 yuan per set [9] New Tax Policy Impact - A new announcement states that transactions involving standard gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange will not incur VAT if the seller is a member unit or customer, aiming to enhance Shanghai's status as an international gold trading center [9] - The policy distinguishes between "investment" and "non-investment" uses of gold, with different tax treatments for each [9] - The new policy is expected to increase the circulation costs of investment gold, as it cuts the VAT deduction chain for investment gold entering downstream circulation [10][12]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported a net outflow of $2.5 billion from global physical gold ETFs for the week ending October 31, resulting in a total holding of 3,892.6 tonnes, with a demand decrease of 22.1 tonnes or 0.6% [1][2] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $2.5 billion as of October 31, 2025 [1][2] - The total holdings in gold ETFs decreased to 3,892.6 tonnes [1][2] - Demand for gold decreased by 22.1 tonnes, reflecting a 0.6% decline [1] Group 2: Regional Analysis - North America had an AUM of $263.5 billion with fund flows of -$1,026.6 million and holdings of 2,043.4 tonnes [2] - Europe reported an AUM of $180.4 billion, with fund flows of -$1,660.8 million and holdings of 1,398.6 tonnes [2] - Asia showed a positive fund flow of $169.1 million, with an AUM of $49.6 billion and holdings of 379.1 tonnes [2] - Other regions had an AUM of $9.2 billion, with fund flows of $12.4 million and holdings of 71.6 tonnes [2]

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices has led to increased investment demand, particularly in gold ETFs, while retail gold jewelry demand has significantly declined, indicating a shift in consumer behavior from jewelry to investment [2][12] - Major jewelry retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, are experiencing a wave of store closures, particularly in lower-tier cities, as high gold prices deter consumers and impact sales [5][7] Retail Performance - Chow Tai Fook reported a net closure of 905 stores in 2025, reducing its total to 6,501, marking an end to years of expansion [5] - Chow Sang Sang also faced a decline, with 74 stores closed in the first half of 2025, including 62 from its main brand [5] - The closures are concentrated in franchise stores in lower-tier cities, while self-operated stores have seen slight growth [7] Consumer Behavior - High gold prices have led franchisees to adopt conservative inventory strategies, resulting in a reluctance to stock large amounts of gold due to financial risks associated with price fluctuations [9] - The rise of live e-commerce has diverted customers from physical stores, exacerbating the challenges faced by brick-and-mortar retailers [9] - Retail sales of gold jewelry have been negatively impacted, with consumers becoming more cautious and delaying purchases due to high prices [11][12] Market Dynamics - The World Gold Council noted a significant drop in gold jewelry demand in China, attributed to unprecedented price increases outpacing income growth, which has weakened consumer purchasing power [12] - Investors are drawn to gold for its potential appreciation, while consumers view it as a product, leading to decreased demand as prices rise [12]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have risen again, surpassing the $4,000 mark, with spot and futures prices reaching $4,010 per ounce as of November 6 [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of November 6, gold spot prices are reported at $4,011.46 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, while COMEX gold futures are at $4,017.2 per ounce, with a 0.61% rise [2]. - Following a historical high in late October, gold prices entered a correction phase, experiencing a downward trend in early November, with closing prices on November 4 and 5 failing to exceed $4,000 per ounce [6]. Group 2: Stock Market Reaction - On November 6, Hong Kong-listed gold stocks collectively surged, with Zijin Mining International, Tongguan Gold, and Lingbao Gold rising by 8.67%, 7.14%, and 6.19% respectively. Zijin Mining also saw a 4.29% increase, while Datang Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold rose over 3% [7]. - Specific stock performance includes Zijin Mining International at 137.90 HKD, up 8.67% with a transaction volume of 1.053 billion HKD, and Tongguan Gold at 2.70 HKD, up 7.14% with a transaction volume of 31.147 million HKD [8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. federal government has entered its 36th day of shutdown, raising concerns among investors about potential negative impacts on the U.S. economy. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, and $14 billion if it extends to eight weeks [9]. - Despite a significant increase in U.S. ADP employment numbers for October, overall labor demand is slowing, and wage growth remains stagnant, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions in December [9]. - Market sentiment is currently mixed, with reduced risk aversion and increased uncertainty regarding the Fed's rate-cutting path, which may slightly diminish demand for gold in the short term. However, the long-term outlook for gold as an alternative to dollar assets remains intact, with expectations of continued price fluctuations driven by various factors [9].