Group 1 - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of CPI data integrity for the $2.1 trillion TIPS market, expecting July inflation rates to remain above the Federal Reserve's target despite political pressures [1] - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Index has risen by 5.7% this year, indicating increased demand for inflation-protected assets [1] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase TIPS issuance to meet debt financing needs [1] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that ASEAN and India will face significant U.S. tariff increases starting in early August, potentially altering the current economic landscape [1] - The Indian rupee remains stable, while the Indian stock market has declined by 0.2%, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India in response to U.S. tariff impacts [1] Group 3 - Bloomberg Economic Research indicates that the Eurozone economy is performing well, leading the European Central Bank to hold off on easing monetary policy, with no expected rate cut in September [2] - The ECB's next action is anticipated in December, potentially lowering the deposit rate to 1.75% [2] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs reports significant downward revisions to U.S. non-farm payroll data for May and June, indicating a more severe labor market weakness than previously expected, which may prompt adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The total downward revision for non-farm payrolls for May and June is 258,000, the largest two-month revision since 1968 [2] Group 5 - Nomura Securities suggests that the likelihood of two rate cuts by the end of December has significantly increased following the release of July non-farm data, with rising demand for hedging against potential economic hard landing risks [3] - Danish Bank analysts state that the Swiss franc's performance depends on the outcome of U.S.-Swiss trade negotiations, with potential high tariffs on Swiss exports if no agreement is reached [3]

本田汽车第一季度营业利润为2442亿日元，同比下降50%，远低于分析师预期。美国总统特朗普加征的 关税对本季度营业利润造成了约1250亿日元的负面影响。 公司上调了截至2026年3月财年全年营业利润预测至7000亿日元，高于此前预期的5000亿日元。本田预 计全年受关税影响的金额将从之前的6500亿日元降至4500亿日元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 豫能控股（001896.SZ）8月6日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前主营业务为火力发电，公司主要向国 网河南省电力公司进行售电，关税对公司业务没有影响。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：董秘书你好：请问美国关税对公司有没有影响？请董 秘书回复一下？ ...

格隆汇8月6日｜本田汽车(HMC.US)公司上调了全年利润预期，尽管其季度数据受到美国总统特朗普对 进口汽车和汽车零部件征收关税的打击。该公司周三表示，截至2026年3月的财年，公司目前预计营业 利润为7000亿日元（合47亿美元）。相比之下，之前的预测是5000亿日元，分析师的平均预测是8960亿 日元。在受到关税导致的1250亿日元负面影响后，该公司4月至6月的三个月利润为2440亿日元，低于分 析师预测的3100亿日元。该季度销售额下降1%，至5.3万亿日元。本田首席财务官表示，目前预计关税 的总影响为4500亿日元，低于该公司此前预估的6500亿日元。他将全年汽车销量预期维持在362万辆不 变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Honda Motor Co., Ltd. reported disappointing Q1 results for the fiscal year 2025, with revenues and profits falling short of market expectations, yet the company raised its full-year guidance significantly [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 5.34 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 5.40 trillion yen [1][2]. - Operating profit for Q1 was 244.1 billion yen, down 49.6% year-on-year, and also below the expected 309.6 billion yen [1][2]. - The operating margin fell to 4.6%, a decline of 4.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - Profit before income taxes was 292.3 billion yen, a decrease of 47.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to owners of the parent was 196.6 billion yen, down 50.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Full-Year Guidance - Honda revised its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 21.1 trillion yen, up from the previous estimate of 20.3 trillion yen [2][3]. - The company now expects operating profit for the year to be 700 billion yen, increased from the prior forecast of 500 billion yen [2][3]. - The forecast for profit before income taxes was raised to 710 billion yen, up from 490 billion yen previously [2][3]. - Net profit for the year is now projected at 420 billion yen, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 250 billion yen [2][3]. Currency and Tariff Impact - Honda adjusted its assumptions regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate to an average of 140 yen per dollar, up from 135 yen [3]. - The company expects a loss of 450 billion yen in operating profit due to tariffs, revised down from an earlier estimate of 650 billion yen [3]. - A trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan was reached, resulting in a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including a 12.5% tariff on automobiles [4].

虽然本田季度业绩受到美国汽车进口关税冲击，本田仍然上调年度利润预期，从此前的5000亿日元上调至7000亿日元。本田解释称，最新的贸易协议避免“最坏情况”，目前预计损失4500亿日元，低于此前6500亿日元的预期。本田4至6月利润为2440亿日元，低于预期的3100亿日元，其中1250亿日元受到关税负面影响。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-06 商品价格波动仍剧烈 市场分析 市场再回归基本面验证阶段。7月30日政治局会议明部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调，关 于反内卷，会议强调"依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理"，较前期中央财经委提法有所修正， 或指向后续"反内卷"政策将更温和。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造业保持扩 张，后续需要关注对等关税落地对经济事实的影响。8月5日，A股全天震荡走高，午后三大股指持续拉升，沪指涨 近1%，重回3600点上方，再创年内收盘新高。银行、保险、钢铁等权重股上涨，PEEK材料、高速铜连接等概念股 活跃。商品期货收盘，焦煤主力合约涨近7%，多晶硅、焦炭涨超3%。 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对部分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列 明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适用10%的税率；如有国家或地区通过第三地转运方式规避关税，其商 品将被征收40%的转运税。据白宫公 ...

Group 1: Price Dynamics - Global prices for the same products remain stable, but the U.S. market faces upward price pressure due to new tariffs [2][3] - Adidas reported a loss of hundreds of millions of euros due to tariffs, with expected price increases limited to the U.S. market [3] - Procter & Gamble plans to raise prices by approximately 5% on about a quarter of its products in the U.S. to offset $1 billion in increased costs [3] Group 2: Retailer Challenges - U.S. retailers are stockpiling goods to mitigate rising procurement costs, leading to increased warehousing expenses [6] - Retailers like Best Buy and various small businesses are struggling to pass on costs to consumers, resulting in reduced profit margins [6][7] - The phenomenon of stockpiling is seen as a temporary solution, with inevitable price increases expected once inventories are depleted [7] Group 3: Consumer and Business Sentiment - The new tariffs are set to take effect on August 7, raising concerns among small business owners about order cancellations and rising costs [7][9] - Consumer spending is affected, with a reported 2.6% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index, indicating rising inflation [9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress investment willingness among businesses, complicating global supply chain adjustments [10]

周末，我们对国际产品以及国际产品整体行情都有一个梳理，继续参考视频分析 黑色系期货还要继续疯狂吗？原油系探底回升！ 非农爆冷，黄金多头绝地反击，是大涨开始还是昙花一现？ 黄金大扫荡还在上演，我们认为这种大扫荡行情依然会持续；这主要是基本面决定的，上周五非农数据后，市场上开始 压住美联储降息次数的增加以及概率的增加；同时，特朗普也在威胁医药关税和芯片关税，这两点主要是针对欧盟和印 度。 美联储降息和关税这两方面，对黄金是构成利多的；我们需要注意的是，当下黄金利多持续性不强，且黄金月线连续4跟 上影线压制下，多头也会很谨慎；这就是当前黄金继续大扫荡的原因，直线上涨和直线下跌轮番上演。 行情回顾 昨天早上文章强调黄金虽然多头强势，但短期快涨后需要调整修正，继续关注冲高回落，第一3386区域压制下跌，第二 3400-05区域压制下跌；最终，黄金亚盘最高3382-83迎来回落，欧盘时段下破强弱分界线3370区域，美盘前夕最低3350 区域。在晚上我们发布文章强调，黄金3345区域支撑很关键，下破前看反弹；最终，黄金3349~50之间止跌反转，多头一 路向上并上破日内高点最高至3390一线，尾盘回落，日线以上下影小阳线收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].