Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is likely to back down in the trade war with China, as evidenced by the recent decision to cancel most tariffs after April 2025 and only retain 10% tariffs, while suspending an additional 24% for 90 days [1][9][10] - China has responded to U.S. tariffs with its own measures, imposing tariffs on various American goods, resulting in a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. [1][3] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China remains significant, with nearly $700 billion in trade expected in 2024, highlighting China's importance as a major export market for the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - China's export dependency on the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift towards diversifying its trade relationships [7] - The Chinese government has implemented monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, to stabilize its economy amid the trade tensions [7] - China has also employed non-tariff measures, including reducing imports of U.S. agricultural products and imposing export controls on rare earths, demonstrating its ability to counter U.S. actions [7][15] Group 3 - The U.S. faces significant domestic challenges, including stock market declines and public discontent, which may pressure the administration to ease trade tensions with China [9][10] - The upcoming 90-day period for the suspension of additional tariffs will be critical, as China is expected to maintain its stance without yielding to U.S. demands [12][13] - China's confidence in its economic resilience suggests that it is well-prepared for ongoing trade confrontations, with a belief that the U.S. will struggle more in the long run [13][15]

2025.05. 13 本文字数：2317，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 "爆舱，一个下午各家船公司都宣布爆舱。" 5月12日晚，东南物流（越南）上海分公司总经理刘祁峰告诉第一财经，当天的订舱和咨询量就已是 近期的3～4倍。 面对美国的高关税，杜传奎他们在以中国为主要生产基地的基础上，加大了对于柬埔寨工厂的投入， 也因为这样的国际化产能布局增强了韧性。 5月12日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。美方取消4月对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修 改对中国商品加征34%的"对等关税"，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 关税的大幅下降，让大量中国外贸人开启了紧急订舱行动，抓紧联系美国客户支付尾款，把4月延迟 发出的货尽快运出。 此外，对美航线迅速"爆舱"并将大概率持续火爆数月，还因为本就存在的需求旺季和美国航线供应的 临时调整。 当务之急是"去库存" "明天赶紧让客户转钱出货！""会不会订不到柜？"12日晚上，一名外贸人在得知关税下降第一时间冒 出的两个想法颇为典型。他的欣喜又急迫的心情，既为了完成订单，也因为4月因高关税而积压的货 物着实占用了不少空间。 作为沃尔玛的供应商 ...

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has primarily affected the relationship with China, leading to a backlash in the U.S. consumer market, where consumers will ultimately bear the cost of tariffs [1] - The last batch of goods not subjected to high tariffs is arriving at U.S. ports, with a significant reduction in imports expected next week; the American Retail Federation predicts a 20% year-on-year decline in imports by the second half of 2025, while JPMorgan forecasts a drop in imports from China to 75-80% [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have evolved into a prolonged dispute rather than negotiations, with potential risks to the stock, bond, and currency markets as the U.S. faces challenges in managing its debt obligations [4] Group 2 - Retailers in the U.S. are under pressure, with only 6-8 weeks of inventory left, necessitating quick decisions from Trump to alleviate panic; the shortage of essential goods could lead to rising prices and a decrease in job opportunities, increasing the risk of economic recession [7] - Trump acknowledges the difficulty of completely severing supply chains with China, but he aims to weaken China's position in the new order; however, he may have overestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy [9] - The situation is a race against time, with the need to rally other countries against U.S. economic coercion; the strategy may involve allowing certain countries' products to enter the U.S. market at reduced tariffs to mitigate supply chain shortages [10][12]

半个月前，知危刚写了国际货运代理们对于关税战的看法，文中提到国际货代们普遍认为这种高关税状态将在 5 月中旬得到一定程度解决。 5月12日，关税果然降了下来。据新华社消息，中美发表《 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 》，双方将在 5 月 14 日前采取一系列措施降低关税。 题图来自：AI生成 而报道中的中方对美关税加征仅剩 10%，即为《 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 》所披露的内容。 但实际上，在 4 月 2 日前，针对美方的前两轮税率加征，中方也有相关反制措施，所谓"仅剩 10%"并未考虑下列相关反制： 2 月 4 日，中方宣布对美方的煤炭、液化天然气加征 15% 关税，对原油、农业机械、大排量汽车、皮卡加征 10% 新关税； 2 月4 日，美国以"平衡中美贸易逆差"为由，针对中国进口商品加征 10% 的关税； 3 月 3 日，美国又以"中国未有效阻止芬太尼类物质流入美国"为由，宣布对中国输美产品，再次加征 10% 关税，此时关税的累计加征税率到达了 20%； 5 月 12 日，《 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 》披露美国在 4 月 2 日及以后对华加征的关税仅保留 10%，此时关税累计加征税率到达了 30%； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that India's recent decision to negotiate with the U.S. regarding tariffs may not lead to favorable outcomes, as the ongoing trade war continues to escalate without clear agreements from the U.S. [1][3] - The initial optimism from Trump about global negotiations has diminished, with key allies like Japan and South Korea showing reluctance to concede to U.S. demands [3][5] - India's willingness to engage in negotiations appears to be a strategic move to mitigate economic pressures, as the country faces a slowing economy and significant foreign capital outflows [8] Group 2 - The article highlights that India's potential agreement to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods may not be as straightforward as suggested, with reports indicating that the terms could resemble previous negotiations with Vietnam, which were not well received by the U.S. [5][11] - The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan are noted as a possible distraction for Modi, as he navigates the domestic implications of negotiating with the U.S. [5][6] - China's response to the U.S.-India negotiations is also significant, as it has announced anti-dumping duties on certain Indian products, indicating that it will not tolerate any agreements that undermine its interests [12][13]

宏观日报 | 2025-05-13 关注关税战后行业进出口变化 中观事件总览 生产行业：中美关税战告一段落。 1）中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8 日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第 14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地， 中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天， 剩余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。。2）据商务部，截至目前，2025年汽 车以旧换新补贴申请量达322.5万份。自2024年汽车以旧换新政策实施以来，累计补贴申请量已突破1000万份。汽 车以旧换新政策有效促进汽车消费持续回升，今年1—4月，国内乘用车零售量687.2万辆，同比增长7.9% 服务行业：关注金融业"补降"。 1）近期中小银行正加速"补降"。据不完全统计，4月起已有哈密市商业银行、聊 城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行、福建华通银行等 ...

Group 1 - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva resulted in significant progress, with both sides expressing a constructive atmosphere and reaching important consensus [1][2] - A joint statement was released, indicating the cancellation of tariffs imposed after April 2, with a 90-day pause on 24% tariffs to allow for further negotiations [2][12] - The automotive industry is particularly affected by these developments, as high tariffs had previously led to a significant decline in sales for imported vehicles, such as Lincoln and BMW models, which saw prices soar due to tariffs [5][7] Group 2 - The pause in tariffs is expected to benefit automotive importers, allowing them to resume business operations that had been stalled due to high tariffs [5][11] - Some automotive parts suppliers, previously forced to relocate to Southeast Asia due to tariffs, are now reassessing their global strategies and receiving new orders from North America [7][9] - The collaboration between Ford and CATL for battery technology is set to be revitalized, with plans for a $3.5 billion battery factory in Michigan, which will create 1,700 jobs and support Ford's supply chain in the US [11][12] Group 3 - The current agreement is only a temporary pause, with ongoing negotiations required to ensure a lasting resolution, highlighting the unpredictable nature of US decision-making [12][14] - The complexity of the automotive industry means that both Chinese and American companies are deeply intertwined in the global supply chain, making them vulnerable to trade tensions [14][16]

周一，美国股市迎来强劲反弹，三大指数大幅上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数暴涨1160.72点，涨幅达 2.81%，收于42410.10点。标准普尔500指数则上涨3.26%，收于5844.19点。纳斯达克综合指数表现最 好，收涨4.35%，报18708.34点。 至此，道指和标普的年内跌幅已分别收窄至0.32%和0.64%，纳指的累计跌幅为3.12%。行情还显示，在 大型科技股的带动下，纳斯达克100指数已较上月低位反弹超20%，进入"技术性牛市"。 另一方面，中概股跑赢大盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.4%。 热门中概股小马智行初步收涨11.8%，房多多和小鹏涨超8%，B站涨超7%，京东、理想、拼多多涨超 6%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、百度涨超5%，腾讯、新东方、百胜中国涨超4%。ETF中，富时中国3倍做多 ETF收涨9.95%，中概互联网指数ETF收涨5.56%，中国科技指数ETF收涨4.62%，"中国龙"Roundhill China Dragons ETF收涨3.52%。 摩根士丹利最新研究报告显示，对冲基金特别是美国的对冲基金，上周增加了对中国股票（包括购买在 美上市中国股票和国内A股）的看多押注。 市场普遍将本次上 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts on the day is mainly due to the better - than - expected Sino - US talks over the weekend. The short - term trade prospects have improved, and the supply concerns brought by the US line to the European line have been alleviated, which significantly boosts market expectations. However, the progress in the later stage is still uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the European line are weak. In the long term, container shipping prices may still be more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended to participate mainly from the perspective of short - term oversold rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The spot market changed little. The online quotes in the second half of May were basically the same as those in the first half. The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts was caused by the Sino - US talks. According to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, both China and the US suspended the tariff measures upgraded after April 2, and the short - term trade prospects improved. But the long - term container shipping prices may be weak, and short - term oversold rebound is recommended [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 6th to 9th, the China Export Container Transport Market was generally stable after the holiday, with different routes showing different trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year. - On May 9th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index rose 0.3% from the previous period. In the European route, due to weak consumption and slow progress in US - EU trade negotiations, the transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking price fell slightly. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better, and the market price was flat. In the North American route, China's exports to the US decreased in April, but the market price rose slightly [9][10]. - From May 10th to 11th, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. On May 12th, the "Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released. The US will cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify the 34% "reciprocal tariff", suspending 24% of it for 90 days and retaining 10%. China will also take corresponding measures [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On May 12th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 5.5% compared to May 4th, while that for the US West route increased by 10.2% [13]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on May 12th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. All contracts rebounded significantly, with a maximum increase of 16% [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report presents multiple charts, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [20][23]

受到，周末传来的双方会谈消息利好，再叠加今天晚些时候会公布明细结果，今天A股高开高走，大家似乎此前对于能谈好的预期过低，导致今天资金有 点积极定价的意思。 其中，军工股表现依旧非常不错，这得益于印巴之间打算和谈，其中我方的武器出了大力气。另外，是此前受到关税影响的相关板块，今天都有补涨的动 作。 当然，一切的等待和做多，都是为了盘后3点公布的消息。具体内容，大家可以自行去商务部官网查看。 总结下来的意思，中方对美方的关税税率由此前的125%降低至10%，为期90天。而美方对中方的关税税率由145%降低至30%，很多人会说不是应该对等 的10%，你们不要忘了此前18年毛衣战的基础。 说实话，这份贸易谈判的结果肯定是超出市场预期的。因为此前市场并不认为能谈出什么结果，结果真出了结果，此前认为就算谈出什么结果，顶多会将 关税降低至50%左右，结果直接一步到位。 这充分的说明了，在贝森特占据川普政府关税谈判的主导地位之后，川普政府的策略发生了改变。因为关税战这件事的确是伤敌800，自损一千的行为。 欧洲股市，美股期货都在上涨。得益于世界上最大两个国家，关税谈判传出利好，大家对于毛衣战的避险情绪得以大大的缓解。黄金、日 ...