Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

另外，美元指数日图走弱，但未跌破中轨支撑，空头也未能进一步增强，周图走势上周虽大幅冲高回落收线，但也仍运行在5-10周均线上方，附图指标也 维持明显的看涨信号发展，暗示后市走势，即便是不继续上涨，也是震荡波动，而会限制金价多头。不过，根据近2年多美元指数都是维持在震荡走盘波 动来看，对于金价来说，依然还是要么维持震荡，要么再度走强。故此，金价的震荡调整就是在为多头制造入场机会。 张尧浠：降息预期再提升、金价进一步多头目标3458 上交易日周一(8月4日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，如期触及给出的扩展线目标位置，虽多头动力减缓，但仍运行在各均线支撑上方，看涨前景依然良好，后市 仍有望继续看涨上行，等待突破阻力，并进一步触及布林带上轨目标3425美元，以及进一步的扩展线目标3458美元附近。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高空开超4美金至3366.90美元/盎司，先行走低，于9点时段录得日内低点3344.88美元，之后止跌反弹震荡上方，延续至美盘触及 录得日内高点3385.09美元，之后遇阻回撤，并处于3370美元上方窄幅盘整，最终收于3373.35美元，日振幅40.21美元，相对于上周五收盘价3362.46美元， 收涨10.8 ...

热门科技股普涨，英伟达、谷歌、Meta、博通涨超3%，特斯拉、微软涨超2%。 （原标题：道指涨超500点！美联储，释放降息信号！特朗普，又发关税威胁！） 昨夜，美股集体走高，道指涨超500点，纳指大涨近2%。 美股集体走高 贵金属、焦炭、加密货币涨幅居前，金田涨超10%，美国黄金公司、美洲白银公司涨超8%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.33%，热门中概股多数上涨，小鹏汽车、名创优品涨超4%，哔哩哔哩、京 东涨超2%；蔚来则跌超8%。 8月4日，美股三大指数集体盘中拉升，截至收盘，道指涨1.34%，纳指涨1.95%，标普500指数涨 1.47%。 特朗普称将大幅提高对印度的关税 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大 部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。特朗普表示，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。 另据CCTV国际时讯，对于美国总统特朗普威胁称将大幅提升对印度的关税，以及美欧指责印度在俄乌 冲突爆发后进口甚至倒卖俄罗斯石油，印度外交部发言人兰迪尔·贾伊斯瓦尔当地时间8月4日晚发声明 回应称，"针对印度的指责显失公允，印度将如所有主要经济体一样，采取一切必要措 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the conflicting strategies of Apple in China, showcasing a dual approach where it closes stores while simultaneously opening new ones, reflecting the broader anxiety among American companies in the Chinese market due to rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Apple's Market Strategy - Apple closed a direct store in Dalian, which was interpreted by Indian media as a retreat from the Chinese market [1] - On the same day, Apple announced a new store opening in Shenzhen, emphasizing its commitment to the Chinese market with the slogan "We love China" [1] - This duality illustrates Apple's struggle between maintaining a presence in the lucrative Chinese market and the pressures to relocate manufacturing to India [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The article mentions that 79% tariffs on steel and aluminum, along with rising tariffs on shoes, electronics, and automobiles, are creating a challenging environment for American companies operating in China [1] - Companies are faced with a dilemma: either stay in China to access a market worth $600 billion annually or relocate and risk incurring losses in the trillions [1] - The situation reflects a collective anxiety among approximately 70,000 American companies in China, highlighting the lack of a clear winning option for these businesses [1]

Economic Growth Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3%, significantly above the expected 2.6% and a recovery from the previous quarter's -0.5%[6] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter's 0.5%, while private investment saw a sharp decline of -15.6% from a prior growth of 23.8%[6] - Domestic final sales, which exclude trade, inventory, and government impacts, recorded a mere 1.2% growth, down from 1.9%, indicating a weakening underlying economic momentum[6] Consumption and Investment Trends - Personal consumption, a critical component of GDP, showed a slight recovery but remained low at 1.4%, with goods outperforming services[6] - Private investment's significant contraction of -15.6% contributed to a 3.1% drag on GDP, with both residential and non-residential investments shrinking for two consecutive quarters[6] - The decline in consumer confidence and income growth is expected to further suppress consumer demand moving forward[6] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The PCE price index for Q2 2025 rose to 2.6%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE index reached 2.8%[6] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in consumer prices, with notable increases in durable goods and services[6] - The market may be overestimating both economic growth and inflation, with potential for monetary policy easing in 2026, contrary to current market pricing[6]

FactSet的数据显示，已公布财报的企业中，必需消费品和材料公司的收益同比分别下降0.1%和5%，而 科技企业和金融企业的季度盈利则分别同比增长41%和12.8%。此外，标普500指数中前10大市值的股 票，占该指数整体利润近三分之一，其中包括苹果、Meta和微软在内的科技集团，以及在标普500指数 中占主导地位的银行摩根大通和高盛。上述企业均公布了亮丽的第二季度业绩，描绘出一幅经济蓬勃发 展的图景，似乎支持了美国总统特朗普近期的断言，即美国"是世界上最热门的国家"。 然而，在表象之下，美国大部分企业正艰难应对利润放缓以及特朗普激进的贸易政策所带来的高度不确 定性。法国兴业银行表示，在已公布业绩的标普500指数成分股公司中，有52%的公司利润率出现下 滑。该行全球定量研究主管拉普索恩（Andrew Lapthorne）表示，尽管销售额有所上升，但企业财报均 反馈利润率面临压力，"这种差异表明，大部分美国企业成本正在上升，且他们尚未向消费者转嫁成 本。" 上周后半周发布的一系列财报表明，美国经济增长放缓已蔓延至华尔街和硅谷以外。此外，上周五美国 劳工统计局表示，美国在5~7月期间仅新增10.6万个就业岗位，远 ...

企业业绩分化 FactSet的数据显示，已公布财报的企业中，必需消费品和材料公司的收益同比分别下降0.1%和5%，而 科技企业和金融企业的季度盈利则分别同比增长41%和12.8%。此外，标普500指数中前10大市值的股 票，占该指数整体利润近三分之一，其中包括苹果、Meta和微软在内的科技集团，以及在标普500指数 中占主导地位的银行摩根大通和高盛。上述企业均公布了亮丽的第二季度业绩，描绘出一幅经济蓬勃发 展的图景，似乎支持了美国总统特朗普近期的断言，即美国"是世界上最热门的国家"。 然而，在表象之下，美国大部分企业正艰难应对利润放缓以及特朗普激进的贸易政策所带来的高度不确 定性。法国兴业银行表示，在已公布业绩的标普500指数成分股公司中，有52%的公司利润率出现下 滑。该行全球定量研究主管拉普索恩（Andrew Lapthorne）表示，尽管销售额有所上升，但企业财报均 反馈利润率面临压力，"这种差异表明，大部分美国企业成本正在上升，且他们尚未向消费者转嫁成 本。" 上周后半周发布的一系列财报表明，美国经济增长放缓已蔓延至华尔街和硅谷以外。此外，上周五美国 劳工统计局表示，美国在5~7月期间仅新增10.6万 ...

智通财经8月4日电，瑞士股市重新开市，受特朗普关税冲击，瑞士SSMI指数盘初跌近2%。 ...

Tariffs Analysis - Fitch estimates the current effective US tariff rate to be 17% [1] - The current tariff rate is approximately 8 percentage points lower than the estimate when reciprocal tariffs were announced in April [1] - The current tariff rate is about 3 percentage points higher than Fitch's estimate at the end of June [1]

Core Insights - The actual tariff rate for U.S. imports in May was 8.3%, significantly lower than Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast of 10% to 15% [1] - It is anticipated that the tariff rates will trend towards the forecasted levels in June and July, with implications for inflation [1] - Key factors contributing to the lower-than-expected actual tariff rate include transportation delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA, and a significant decline in imports from emerging markets [1] Economic Impact - The expected increase in effective tariff rates in June and July is likely to have a more pronounced effect on U.S. inflation [1] - Historically, the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices typically manifests 3 to 5 months after implementation, while the economic growth repercussions are observed within 3 months [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that tariffs could lead to a price increase of approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months, which may gradually dissipate as demand weakens [1]