Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding foreign capital selling US Treasury bonds are unfounded, as data from the US Treasury's International Capital Movement report indicates that the turmoil in May was not caused by foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, global trade tensions eased, with the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy in a 90-day buffer period, leading to a 27.6% month-on-month decline in the US trade policy uncertainty index [1]. - The US government faced increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Moody's downgraded the US's last AAA sovereign credit rating, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, with monthly increases of 24 and 26 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in Treasury prices [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - In April, international capital experienced a net outflow of $146 billion, reversing a net inflow of $171.2 billion in March, coinciding with a 4.4% drop in the dollar index [2]. - In May, the US financial market rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising 6.1%, leading to a net capital inflow of $311.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of $3.257 billion, marking the third-highest monthly inflow on record [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in US Securities - Foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in US long-term securities in May, a month-on-month increase of $369.1 billion, contributing 113.1% to the net capital inflow [3]. - Private foreign capital was the main contributor, with a net inflow of $333.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of $330.4 billion, marking the highest monthly net inflow on record [4]. Group 4: Types of Securities - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with net purchases of $1.463 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $1.871 billion, contributing 50.7% to the net purchases of long-term securities [5]. - Private foreign investors were the primary buyers of US long-term securities, shifting from a net sale of $50.6 billion to a net purchase of $318.5 billion in May [5][6]. Group 5: Country Contributions - Canada was the largest contributor to the net purchase of US long-term securities in May, with a net inflow of $146.7 billion, accounting for 39.7% of the total [9]. - Other significant contributors included the Cayman Islands, Singapore, China, and Japan, with China ending a 10-month streak of net sales to net purchase $3.2 billion in May [10][11].

Group 1 - The incident involving the Wells Fargo executive being restricted from leaving China highlights the importance of adhering to local laws for both domestic and foreign individuals [1][3] - The Chinese government emphasizes that this action is a legal procedure and not a political persecution, contrasting it with past U.S. actions against Chinese companies [3][9] - The situation reflects broader issues in U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding the perception of double standards in international law enforcement [3][7] Group 2 - The restriction of the Wells Fargo executive's departure has led to concerns among U.S. companies about the stability of U.S.-China relations, with some firms, like Wells Fargo, halting employee travel to China [8][9] - The incident may further complicate diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and China, as it could be perceived as a sign of deteriorating trust [7][11] - The need for the U.S. to respect China's legal framework is emphasized, suggesting that failure to do so could lead to increased tensions and potential crises [9][11]

新华财经上海7月26日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月21日-7月26日）国际贸易局势的不确定性逐步下降，全球央行政策则趋于谨慎调整，欧洲央行暂停连续降 息。全球风险偏好回升之际，多数国家股指走高，美元震荡走弱，黄金走强后回落，国内商品走势则随着"反内卷"政策信号持续释放强势上行。 美股方面，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数持续刷新历史高位，其中，标普500指数收报6388.64点，本周累计上涨1.46%；道琼斯工业平均指数报44901.92点， 本周累涨1.26%；纳斯达克指数报21108.32点，本周累涨1.02%；罗素2000指数报2261.07点，本周累涨0.94%。 美股"科技股七巨头"多数上涨，其中，谷歌因第二季度财报营收和净利润超预期，本周累计上涨4.39%，亚马逊全周累涨2.35%，苹果全周累计涨1.28%， Meta全周累涨1.19%，英伟达涨幅达0.63%，微软全周微涨0.72%。特斯拉则因营收和净利润大幅下跌，全周累计下挫4.12%。 欧洲股市方面，欧洲STOXX 600指数全周累计涨0.5%；德国DAX 30指数本周累计下跌0.30%，法国CAC 40指数本周累涨0.15%；英国富时100指数本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, under the guise of inspecting building renovations, raises questions about the political and economic implications of his actions, particularly regarding interest rate policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][10]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's approval ratings have declined due to various issues, including tariffs and health concerns, prompting his high-profile visit to the Federal Reserve to potentially regain public support [3][9][10]. - The visit is seen as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, as Trump has previously criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions and has pressured it to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [6][8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve has historically maintained its independence to avoid political pressures that could lead to economic instability, as seen in past instances of inflation caused by political interference [5][8]. - Trump's focus on the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has escalated from initial estimates to significantly higher costs, is perceived as an attempt to exert influence over the Fed [13]. - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, hinging on the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions despite Trump's pressures [13].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant influence of the Federal Reserve Chair, particularly Jerome Powell, over global economic directions, surpassing even that of political leaders like the U.S. President [1][3][11] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Influence - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has the power to shape global economic trends, a fact acknowledged even by the U.S. President [3][5] - Powell's firm stance on maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve highlights its critical role in the U.S. political landscape, often leading to tensions with political figures like former President Trump [5][9] - The decisions made by the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate changes, have far-reaching effects on global financial markets, demonstrating the institution's pivotal role in economic stability [5][9][11] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical Federal Reserve Chairs, including Paul Volcker, have set precedents for maintaining the independence of the institution, which has been crucial in managing economic crises [7][11] - Powell continues this tradition, making decisions that may diverge from political pressures, thereby reinforcing the Federal Reserve's authority in economic matters [7][9] - The article suggests that the true power in shaping economic policy often lies with financial institutions and their leaders rather than elected officials [11][13]

美联储大楼迎来近20年来首位到访的美国总统，一场罕见的总统与美联储主席面对面对峙，打破了长期以来白宫与美联储保持距离的惯例。 7月24日，美国总统特朗普亲赴美联储总部，与鲍威尔就高达25亿美元的"装修门"事件展开交锋。 然而，这笔眼前的"小账"，或许只是特朗普心中那本"大账"的引子。 一场罕见的总统与美联储主席对峙 美国总统通常不会以官方身份造访美联储，此举旨在彰显美联储独立于白宫的超然地位。 回顾历史，美国总统此前曾三次踏足美联储：1937年富兰克林·罗斯福出席总部大楼剪彩，1975年福特总统出席美联储理事宣誓典礼，以及2006年小布什出 席本·伯南克就任美联储主席的宣誓仪式。前三次都是总统"捧场"，而这一次，特朗普的到来却更像是"砸场"。 值得注意的是，特朗普此次视察时机"考究"：选择在周四，距离美联储下一次公布利率决议（7月30日）仅剩一周；同时，在美股尾盘时段现身，显然是为 了最大程度地降低此举可能对市场造成的冲击。 当天，特朗普与鲍威尔一同参观了美联储总部的翻新工程。在施工现场，两人头戴安全帽，并肩而立，神情严肃。面对媒体镜头，特朗普突然拿出一份列有 建筑成本的文件，直接质问身旁的鲍威尔，为何翻修成 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing significant pressure as the selection process for the next chair begins, indicating a potential end to Jerome Powell's tenure [1] - Dallas Fed President Logan's hawkish speech emphasizes the need to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25% for at least 6 to 12 months to control inflation, raising concerns about the economy facing risks reminiscent of the 1970s stagflation [3] - The June inflation data shows a year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.7%, the highest in four months, with core CPI rising 2.9%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 2 - President Trump expressed frustration over inflation data, suggesting a drastic rate cut of 300 basis points and contemplating Powell's dismissal, which led to a spike in market volatility [4][6] - The market reacted sharply to Trump's tweet, with the probability of Powell's dismissal rising from 16% to 26%, and gold prices increasing by $20 [4] - The approval of AI chip exports to China by the U.S. government positively impacted Nvidia's stock, pushing its market cap above $4.1 trillion and contributing to a record high for the Nasdaq index [8] Group 3 - The Fed's internal divisions were revealed in the June meeting minutes, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts among decision-makers [9] - Retail sales data showed a surprising increase of 0.6% month-on-month, but concerns were raised about the impact of tariffs on sensitive categories like clothing and building materials [9] - The dollar index rose sharply following the release of inflation data, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.491% [11] Group 4 - The selection process for the next Fed chair is underway, with potential candidates including Hassett and Waller, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [11] - The U.S. Treasury issued a record $1.2 trillion in net debt during the second quarter, indicating a significant increase in borrowing [11] - Global central banks have been selling U.S. Treasuries, with a reduction of $36 billion in April alone, signaling a potential loss of confidence in the dollar [12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Pressure - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly 20 years, breaking the tradition of distance between the White House and the Fed, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [6][12] - During the visit, Trump confronted Fed Chair Powell over a $2.5 billion renovation budget that exceeded initial estimates by $700 million, attributing the cost overruns to rising tariffs and material costs [9][10] - Trump reiterated his desire for interest rate cuts, claiming that a reduction of three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [10][12] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following Trump's visit, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July rose to 97.4%, with only a 62.1% chance of a rate cut in September [10][12] - Despite Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Powell, there are signals from the White House suggesting that the budget overruns could be used as justification for Powell's potential removal [12][16] - Market expectations indicate that traders anticipate the Fed will be more aggressive in cutting rates next year, with a projected 75 basis points cut compared to earlier expectations of 25 basis points [12][17] Group 3: Meta's AI Leadership Appointment - Meta appointed Shengjia Zhao, a key figure in the development of ChatGPT, as the Chief Scientist of its Superintelligence Lab, reporting directly to CEO Mark Zuckerberg [20][21] - Zhao's appointment is part of Meta's significant investment in AI, with Zuckerberg committing to invest "tens of billions" in AI infrastructure [21] - The establishment of the Superintelligence Lab aims to gather top AI researchers to focus on next-generation foundational models and AI products [21] Group 4: International Conflicts and Trade Discussions - Ongoing border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have resulted in 32 deaths, with both sides accusing each other of initiating hostilities [22][24] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. and EU leaders on July 27 is set to address trade cooperation and disputes, with Trump indicating a 50% chance of reaching a trade agreement [27] - The EU has prepared countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, including a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on $93.1 billion worth of U.S. products if no agreement is reached by August 7 [27]

唐纳德·特朗普计划罕见地访问美联储，这一决定引发了人们的广泛关注。这将是美国历史上第四次有总统亲自踏足美联储的大门，而且特朗普的此行背景 尤为特别。近年来，特朗普与美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之间的摩擦逐渐升级，特朗普对鲍威尔的领导能力以及美联储在华盛顿特区总部的开支问题提 出了越来越多的批评。此时，特朗普的访问似乎是对这一系列问题的回应，背后潜藏着对美联储独立性的一些政治压力。 通常，历史上的总统访问美联储常常被视为对美联储及其独立性的一种尊重。以往的访问具有象征意义，标志着总统对该机构的信任与支持。例如，乔治· 布什曾在2006年2月6日访问美联储，出席了他提名的本·伯南克担任美联储第14任主席的宣誓仪式。布什在该场合强调了美联储在美国经济体系中的独立 性，指出美联储在制定货币政策、监督银行体系以及维护支付系统方面具有不可动摇的独立地位。他曾公开表示："美联储的决策直接影响每一个美国人的 生活和生计，它是全球金融体系稳定性的重要象征。"布什的言辞彰显了他对美联储独立性和决策自由的坚定支持。 而在布什之前，最接近的总统访问美联储的例子发生在1975年，当时杰拉尔德·福特出席了美联储理事会成员菲利普·杰克逊的 ...

Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to record its largest weekly decline in four weeks, currently at 97.80, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will remain steady amid political pressures [3] - Spot gold initially rose to a five-week high but later retreated, currently priced at 3346.63 USD/ounce, showing resilience despite recent trade agreements [3] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the fourth consecutive trading day, marking the longest winning streak since December of the previous year [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Deutsche Bank strategists warned that if Trump replaces Powell, the 30-year US Treasury yield could spike over 50 basis points, suggesting hedging against risks to Fed independence [6] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicated that Trump's potential tax increases could raise actual tariffs to as high as 20%, which the market may not have fully priced in [6] - Barclays noted that the US-Japan trade agreement may benefit the yen in the short term, while Goldman Sachs stated that despite trade agreements, the dollar will remain under pressure [6] Group 3: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - Trump announced a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system with tariffs ranging from 15% to 50%, targeting countries with which the US has poor relations [9] - A bilateral trade agreement with Japan was described by Trump as the "largest ever," imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, while Japan will reduce its auto import tariff from 25% to 15% [9] - The EU is nearing a trade agreement with the US, aiming for a unified 15% tariff on most imports, but significant disagreements remain in sensitive sectors like steel and automobiles [10] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla reported a 12% decline in revenue to 22.5 billion USD in Q2, marking its largest drop in a decade, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.40 USD, below Wall Street expectations [20] - SpaceX's recent equity offering documents warned investors about the potential for Elon Musk to return to politics, which could impact the company's operations and contracts [19] Group 5: Legal and Regulatory Issues - Azoria Capital has filed a lawsuit against Powell and other Federal Open Market Committee members, alleging violations of the Sunshine Act regarding closed-door meetings [8] - The China Gold Group's subsidiary faced a major safety incident resulting in six deaths, prompting regulatory scrutiny and a halt in operations [26][27]