Group 1 - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington has a budget of $2.5 billion, which may have escalated to $3.1 billion according to Trump [3] - The White House has criticized the project for budget overruns and mismanagement, suggesting potential regulatory loopholes and fraud [3] - Trump's visit to the site highlighted the tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding monetary policy independence [3][4] Group 2 - Powell typically communicates with regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents before interest rate meetings, but Trump's unexpected visit disrupted this routine [4] - Despite the pressure from Trump regarding interest rate cuts and project criticisms, Powell maintained a professional demeanor and focused on the technical aspects of monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - PIMCO warns that any attempt to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve would be "extremely detrimental" to the markets [1] - Dan Ivascyn, PIMCO's CIO, emphasizes the importance of central bank independence, particularly in setting policy interest rates [1] - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for a reduction in the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5% [1][2] Group 2 - Trump claims there is "no tension" between him and Powell, stating he sees no need to dismiss the Fed chairman [2] - Concerns arise among former central bank officials that the government's attacks may be a pressure tactic to force Powell to resign before his term ends in May 2026 [2] - Powell asserts he will remain in his position and believes Trump lacks legal grounds to dismiss him [3]

KVB App发现周四这一天，本应是美联储建筑翻新工地里一次寻常的巡视，却因美国总统特朗普与美联储 主席鲍威尔的到场，演变成了一场充满火药味的交锋。两人刚一碰面，就为央行大楼的改造费用争执起 来，气氛瞬间变得紧张。 特朗普一开口就直指预算问题，称原本 25 亿美元的预算已经膨胀到了 31 亿美元，语气中满是不满。面对 总统的指责，鲍威尔并没有退缩，而是冷静地进行反驳。就在两人各执一词时，特朗普从西装内袋里掏出 一张纸，递给了鲍威尔。鲍威尔戴上眼镜，仔细查看这张纸，很快便发现了问题所在，他指着纸上的内 容，语气带着一丝无奈地纠正道："您刚加进了第三栋楼，先生。" 原来，特朗普所说的这栋楼，是美联储 在 2021 年就已经完成翻新的相邻办公楼，显然不该被算进此次的改造预算中。 这场关于预算的争执，只是两人矛盾的冰山一角。《华尔街日报》著名记者 Nick Timiraos，这位素有 "美 联储传声筒" 之称的资深媒体人，在其文章中明确表示，这远远不是特朗普和鲍威尔之间最严重的分歧。 但特朗普显然不满足于此，他把这次非同寻常的工地巡视时刻打造成政治剧场，就是要利用舆论的力量， 给鲍威尔制造更多的公众压力。他试图让民众 ...

北京时间25日凌晨，美国总统特朗普访问美联储。特朗普表示，跟美联储主席鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，称"这 次谈话很有成效"。他还表示，希望鲍威尔能降息，如果把利率降低三个百分点至一个百分点，美国就能省下 一万多亿美元。根据业内统计，这是近二十年来美国总统首次正式造访美联储。 有分析指出，特朗普访问的时间点非常敏感，距离美联储7月利率决议发布仅剩不到一周的时间。特朗普此举 意在加大对美联储的压力，这是他为推动美联储降息而采取的部分非常规行动，同时加剧了围绕美联储总部25 亿美元翻修项目的争议。 值得注意的是，在特朗普持续施压之下，交易员们开始下注美联储将在明年更积极降息。目前交易员预计，美 联储明年将降息76个基点，明显高于今年4月份的预期（25个基点）。 特朗普罕见访问美联储 美东时间7月24日美股尾盘时段（北京时间25日凌晨），特朗普来到位于美国首都华盛顿的美联储总部视察， 就高成本的美联储总部翻修工程争议同联储主席鲍威尔对话，特朗普再次敦促美联储降息，但暗示放弃解雇鲍 威尔的打算。 据白宫此前发布的总统日程表，特朗普此次访问行程约持续一小时。视察期间，特朗普向陪同的鲍威尔展示了 关于联储总部建筑物翻修成本的纸质 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普频频施压美联储主席鲍威尔降息之际，特朗普周四突访美联储位于 华盛顿特区的埃克尔斯大楼，引发市场关注。此次"考察"原本是针对斥资25亿美元的总部翻修工程，但特 朗普很快将焦点转向了自己真正的目的，向鲍威尔施压，要求尽快大幅降息。 当天陪同特朗普访问的还包括多位国会议员及高级官员，其中包括预算管理局局长Russ Vought、联邦住 房金融局局长Bill Pulte等人。美联储工作人员则带领媒体参观了施工区域，展示了包括防爆窗、屋顶绿化 及新的安保设施。 特朗普甚至展示了一封起草中的信件，内容涉及解除鲍威尔职务，但随后他又称"目前没有计划"解雇美联 储主席。不过他暗示，可能会以翻修工程"涉嫌欺诈"为由推动罢免。值得注意的是，最高法院近期的判决 限制了总统在任期内罢免美联储主席的权力，而鲍威尔本人也多次公开表示即使被要求辞职，他也不会主 动下台。 市场对特朗普与鲍威尔的紧张关系有所警惕，但美股仍持续走强。标普500和纳指屡创新高，债市平稳， 波动率维持低位。特朗普政府近期还与英国、日本达成贸易协议，与欧盟的谈判也在推进中。稳健的市场 表现似乎进一步增强了特朗普挑战美联储的信心。 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，美国银行策略师Alex Cohen表示，围绕美联储领导层前景的不确定性正在削弱美 元表现，相关疑虑"显然比其他资产更早影响到美元"，并可能是美元迟迟未能反弹的主要阻力。"即便 未来领导层更换以较常规方式进行，市场也开始预期一个更加宽松的美联储环境，"科恩指出。特朗普 持续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求其降息，今日还计划到访美联储总部，进一步凸显政治干预迹象。 美银：美联储独立性存疑施压美元 市场担忧加剧宽松倾向 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, including a potential visit and threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, symbolizes a significant political intervention in the Fed's independence, primarily aimed at reducing government debt interest expenses [1][2][4]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump's upcoming visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time in nearly two decades that a sitting president has done so, indicating a notable shift in the traditional respect for the Fed's independence [2]. - Trump has consistently criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that high borrowing costs are negatively impacting the real estate market [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has expressed confusion over the Fed's reluctance to cut rates, questioning the impact of tariffs on the Fed's decision-making [2][4]. Group 2: Potential Dismissal of Powell - Trump has considered the possibility of dismissing Powell but later retracted this idea, stating that such an action is unlikely unless Powell engages in fraudulent behavior [3]. - Discussions about Powell's potential successors are ongoing, with names like Waller and Hassett being mentioned, although no immediate action is planned [3]. Group 3: Calls for Reform - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has called for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve, questioning its focus on tariffs in the absence of clear inflation pressures [4]. - Any systemic reform of the Fed would require Congressional approval, which could be a lengthy process, highlighting the challenges of balancing political pressure with the Fed's independence [4]. Group 4: Economic Implications of Interest Rates - Trump argues that lowering the current policy interest rate (4.25% - 4.50%) by 3 percentage points could save the government $1 trillion annually in interest expenses [7]. - Interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this fiscal year, with significant increases in debt service costs anticipated [5][7]. - The rising interest expenses are attributed to the growing federal debt and the recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating by Moody's [5]. Group 5: Risks of Political Intervention - Experts warn that Trump's pressure on the Fed could lead to increased long-term interest rates, counteracting any short-term benefits from rate cuts [8][11]. - The potential dismissal of Powell may not significantly impact debt interest costs, as any short-term rate reductions could be offset by rising long-term rates due to inflation concerns [11][13]. - Political pressure on the Fed could result in investors demanding higher interest rates, complicating the Fed's ability to respond to economic conditions without appearing politically influenced [15].

施压升级？特朗普将亲访美联储 CNBC报道，尽管历任总统曾对前任美联储主席提出过批评，但从未有哪一名总统尝试解除美联储主席 职务。 特朗普2017年提名鲍威尔为美联储主席，其任期至2026年5月结束。鲍威尔领导的美联储不愿按特朗普 要求再次降息，令特朗普不满，从而多次威胁要让鲍威尔"走人"。 美联储去年9月开始连续三次降息后，今年1月起维持利率不变至今。特朗普希望美联储把基准利率从当 前4.25%至4.5%的目标区间下调至1%，以降低联邦政府借贷成本。他23日说，美联储停止降息举措背后 有政治动机，其去年几次降息是为了在11月总统选举前助力民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯或其他鲍 威尔想帮助的人。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克23日呼吁，要么"炒"掉鲍威尔，要么他自己辞职。同一天，美国财政部 长斯科特·贝森特则说，特朗普政府并不急于提名替代鲍威尔的人选，可能在今年12月或明年1月宣布继 任者人选。 贝森特21日公开呼吁就美联储的运行和效率展开全面调查，指认美联储在特朗普政府对进口商品征收高 额关税问题上"制造恐慌"。 卜晓明 美国白宫23日说，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普定于美国东部时间24日16时造访美国联邦储备委 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell and the Federal Reserve is rooted in the economic challenges facing the U.S., including high debt and low growth, leading to calls for interest rate cuts [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, indicating a failure of Trump's tax cuts to stimulate growth [1][5] - High tariffs and interest rates have contributed to rising import prices and suppressed corporate financing, resulting in a manufacturing PMI below the growth threshold for three consecutive months [7] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to a $4.5 trillion revenue loss from tax cuts [5][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on inflation, employment, and growth data, rejecting political pressure from Trump [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is protected by the Federal Reserve Act and Supreme Court rulings, but Trump's team is attempting to challenge this independence [3][5] - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential impact on the dollar's dominance if the Federal Reserve succumbs to political pressure [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic situation, characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratios and persistent deficits, raises concerns about a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. debt market, which has reached $35 trillion [9] - Historical precedents indicate that conflicts between the White House and the Federal Reserve can lead to significant market volatility [9] - If fiscal and monetary policies diverge for more than six months, the yield curve could invert by up to 150 basis points, posing systemic risks to financial markets [9]

Global Macro - The core conflict between Trump and Powell stems from differing monetary policy ideologies, with Trump advocating for low interest rates while Powell emphasizes data-driven decisions based on economic indicators and inflation targets [1][6][12] - The recent escalation in their dispute has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly as Trump has suggested potential legal grounds for dismissing Powell, which could set a dangerous precedent for political interference in central bank operations [1][12][54] - Despite Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt burdens, the report argues that such actions may lead to increased long-term interest rates if the market perceives risks to inflation or the Fed's independence [2][13][28] Trump-Powell Dispute - The dispute has evolved from conceptual criticisms to operational threats, with Trump actively seeking to find justification for Powell's dismissal based on the Federal Reserve's renovation project cost overruns [7][12] - Trump's administration has faced multiple legal and political constraints in attempting to dismiss Powell, including the requirement for "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act, which has never been successfully invoked [33][34] - The potential for a "demotion strategy" to undermine Powell's influence is considered unlikely to succeed, as Powell's term extends until May 2026, and he has demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence [38][39][50] Interest Rate Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely refrain from immediate rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2025, potentially starting in the fourth quarter [2][20] - Current financial conditions indicate that the policy interest rate is not excessively tight, and the market's response to tariff uncertainties has stabilized, suggesting a return to relatively loose liquidity conditions [21][20] - Trump's claims regarding potential savings from interest rate cuts are questioned, as the long-term cost of financing could outweigh short-term benefits if market confidence in the Fed's independence is undermined [28][34] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining institutional credibility, which has been built over decades of professional operation and crisis management [54] - Any attempts to weaken this independence could lead to systemic risks that exceed expectations, impacting the stability of the financial system and the broader economy [54] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's independence is not merely a technical arrangement but a fundamental safeguard for financial stability and economic prosperity [54]