新增信贷方面，数据显示，前11个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5333亿 元，其中，短期贷款减少7328亿元，中长期贷款增加1.27万亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加14.4万亿 元，其中，短期贷款增加4.44万亿元，中长期贷款增加8.49万亿元，票据融资增加1.31万亿元；非银行 业金融机构贷款减少332亿元。 综合人民银行此前披露的数据，北京商报记者进一步统计发现，11月单月，人民币贷款增加3900亿元， 同比少增1883亿元。分项来看，11月企业贷款增加6100亿元，同比多增3600亿元，其中企业短期贷款增 加1000亿元，同比多增1100亿元，企业中长贷增加1700亿元，同比减少400亿元。 另在居民贷款方面，11月住户贷款减少2063亿元，同比多减4763亿元，环比增加1541亿元。其中，居民 短贷减少2158亿元，同比多减1788亿元，环比增加708亿元；居民中长贷增加100亿元，同比多减2900亿 元，环比增加800亿元。 11月金融数据出炉。12月12日，人民银行发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告。数据显示，2025年前11个 月，人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元；社会融 ...

12月12日，央行披露最新金融统计数据。初步统计，2025年11月末社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%。 业内专家表示，今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通国债、特别国债和地方政府专项债额度都明显增 加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。业内专家指出，M2同比增速比上年同期高0.9个百分点，在上年同期基数 提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速。当前社会融资规模和M2增速比名义GDP（国内生产总值）增速高出约一倍，充分体现了适度宽松的 货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。 信贷投放"提质换挡" 业内专家表示，中长期来看，贷款增速回落是经济新旧动能转换在金融领域的反映。 一方面是传统信贷大户需求回落。前些年，基础设施建设、房地产和地方融资平台等领域是信贷投放的主力，经过几十年大规模开发 建设后，传统投资驱动模式的边际效益在递减，房地产市场从"增量扩张"转向"存量提质"，地方债务风险化解工作也在有序推进，导 致这些传统领域的信贷需求有所降温。 另一方面是新的经济增长点较少依赖银行 ...

在具体行文中也有不少变化。例如：货币政策方面，从去年的"发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功 能"，调整为"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"；在消费能力方面，从去 年的"推动中低收入群体增收减负"，转变为明确提出要"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"；教育领域，新增 强调"增加普通高中学位供给"；房地产领域，在控增量、去库存基础上，强调"优供给，鼓励收购存量 商品房重点用于保障性住房等"；服务业方面，强调"制定服务业扩能提质行动方案"。 新的认识"新"在哪里？ 与以往强调规律性认识不同，本次会议提出，"通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认 识和体会"。 会议提及的认识"新"在哪里？对明年开展经济工作将有什么指导意义？会议强调必须充分挖掘经济潜 能，我国在哪些领域存在经济潜能？ 中国建投投资研究院主任、研究员张志前在接受每经记者书面采访时表示，面对复杂的外部环境和内部 困难，在推动我国经济继续稳步发展的过程中，对这些规律有了新的认识和更加深切的体会，同时也发 现和提炼出了新的规律性东西。比如投资于物和投资于人要紧密结合，这是对投资理念、方向、重点的 提升和优化，对于实现经济质的提升和量 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 固 定 收 益 如何理解中央经济工作会议的货币政策基调 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 251212 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周央行 7 天逆回购净投放 47 亿，公开市场操作影响有限， 但月初资金需求不高，叠加政府债缴款压力减弱，资金维持宽松，隔夜匿 名下限降至 1.25%，DR001 周二后再度降至 1.30%下方并持续走低，周五 DR001 降至 1.27%，再创下 23 年 8 月以来的新低。此外，周五盘后央行 宣布将于 15 日进行 6000 亿 6M 买断式回购操作，净投放 2000 亿。 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回升，日均成交量较上周上升 0.15 万亿至 8.08 万亿；质押式回购整体规模周二后持续回升，创下 7 月以来的新高。 分机构来看，大行净融出先降后升，股份行净融出上周持续回升后维持高 位，而城商行净融出在周一回升后窄幅波动，各类银行净融出均高于上周， 其中股份行升幅最大；银行整体刚性净融出持续上升，周四再度突破至 5 万亿元以上。非银刚性融出周四前维持震荡但周五明显回升，主要是货基 融出持续上升；各类非银机构刚性融入规 ...

货币政策适度宽松。11月份新发放企业贷款和个人住房贷款利率，同比分别下降约30个基点和约3个基点，社会综合融资成本持续处于低位。各项结构 性货币政策工具加快落地，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具全部投放完毕，重点支持数字经济、人工智能等2300多个项目。 今年，财政、货币、就业、产业、科技、环保等政策形成合力，宏观调控组合拳提质增效，不断激活经济内生动力。 今年，财政政策更加积极。育儿补贴、养老服务补贴、个人消费贷款贴息等惠民政策直达个人。前十个月，科学技术、社会保障和就业、节能环保支出 同比增长均超5%，重点领域得到有力保障。 央视网消息（新闻联播）：今年以来，我国宏观政策更加积极有为，前瞻性、针对性、有效性持续提升，推动经济社会发展保持良好势头。 财政部最新数据显示，今年1—11月，全国发行新增地方政府专项债券42770亿元，发行进度达97%，有力支持各地建设项目加快推进。 与此同时，超长期特别国债在10月全部发行完毕，完成时间较去年提前一个月，及时有力支持重大基础设施、重大民生工程建设加速推进。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with support from Trump and Jamie Dimon, increasing his nomination probability to 41% [1][5]. Group 1: Candidate Support and Probabilities - Trump stated that Warsh aligns with his views on monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed strong support for Warsh, calling him a "great Federal Reserve Chair" [7]. - The probability of Kevin Hassett's nomination has decreased from approximately 71% to 52%, while Warsh's has risen to 41% [5]. Group 2: Background of Kevin Warsh - Warsh, 55, is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and has a background in investment banking at Morgan Stanley [9]. - He served as the Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 to 2006 and was a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [9]. - Warsh previously interviewed for the Federal Reserve Chair position during Trump's first term but was ultimately not selected [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The market generally focuses on the changes in the description of monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting minutes of the People's Bank of China Party Committee's study and implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference spirit are equally important, reflecting the central bank's specific thinking on monetary policy in 2026 [1]. Summary by Directory 1. From the Meeting Minutes of the Central Bank Party Committee's Study to See Subtle Changes in Monetary Policy in 2026 - The Central Economic Work Conference is an important institutional arrangement for the Party to govern the country. After the conference, various systems and ministries will convey, study, and deploy specific work for 2026. The People's Bank of China Party Committee will also study and clarify implementation measures [1][12]. - Comparing the 2025 and 2024 meeting minutes, four main changes were found: adding "grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation", which may indicate a more moderate loose - monetary - policy; changing the description of social comprehensive financing costs from "stable and gradually decreasing" in 2024 to "operating at a low level" in 2025; making the description of the RMB exchange rate more concise, showing confidence in the recent appreciation trend of the RMB; and continuing to emphasize "coordination with fiscal policy" [2][12][13]. 2. Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/8 - 12/12), the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 4.7 billion yuan. As of December 12, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 668.5 billion yuan, at a relatively low level [15]. - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of the central bank's outright reverse - repurchase was 140 billion yuan (including 100 billion yuan for the 3 - month and 40 billion yuan for the 6 - month). On December 5, the central bank renewed the 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 100 billion yuan. On December 15, it will renew the 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 60 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan [16]. 2.2 Institutional Fund Inflow and Outflow: Large Banks' Net Outflow Reaches a New High - Fund supply: On December 12, large banks' net fund outflow was 4.2 trillion yuan (flow concept), up about 100.2 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow balance was 4.8 trillion yuan, up about 130.2 billion yuan. The net outflow balance of money funds was 1.1 trillion yuan, down about 117.7 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow of joint - stock banks was 28.96 billion yuan, up about 285.5 billion yuan from December 5 [18]. - Fund demand: On December 12, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 12.4 trillion yuan, up 646.7 billion yuan from December 5. The leverage ratio of the whole market was 107%, up 0.40 pct from December 5, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, up 1.17 pct from December 5 [29]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation: Low Liquidity Friction - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume was about 8.1 trillion yuan, up 203.9 billion yuan from December 1 - 5. The median of R001 was 1.35%, down 1bp from last week. The median spread of R001 - DR001 was 7.0bp, up 0.6bp from last week, and the median spread of GC001 - R001 was 7.2bp, up 0.8bp from last week [32]. - Fund sentiment index: The overall fund situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was mostly below 50 [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate was basically the same as last week. This week, the median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, at the 11% quantile since 2020 [38]. 3. Government Bonds: The Net Payment Pressure of Government Bonds Will Decrease in the Next Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 14.8 billion yuan, with a relatively small pressure. Among them, the net repayment of treasury bonds was 69.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of local bonds was 84.5 billion yuan. In the next week, the government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 83.9 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 119.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 35.3 billion yuan for local bonds. The net repayment is highly concentrated on Monday [39]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 12, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.7%, up 0.5% in the past week, with about 221 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. Local bonds have basically completed issuance [43]. 4. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Yields Fluctuated Slightly Higher 4.1 Absolute Yields - On December 12, the SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y quotes were 1.28%, 1.45%, 1.53%, 1.59%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.65%, and 1.66% respectively. Except for the 1M term, which increased by 4bp compared with December 5, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (December 8 - 12), the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 941.78 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 9%, 27%, 43%, 6%, and 15% respectively. Among them, the proportion of 3M increased by 15 pcts, while those of 1M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 4 pcts, 1 pct, 2 pcts, and 7 pcts respectively [51]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 12, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 15bp, at the 34% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 18bp, at the 40% quantile since 2020 [54].

快报！快报 日本突然宣布了 12月12日消息，下周四和周五（12月18日至19日），日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。 目前，市场几乎已经认定 ——利率要从0.5%上调至0.75%，或许是"板上钉钉"的事。 植田和男行长早就放话了，说"实际借贷成本还是负的"，意思就是虽然现在利率是0.5%，但实际 还是负利率，所以还得继续加。这可是日本近18年来少有的一次"断奶"！ 为啥这么急？主要是日元太弱了，从年初142兑1美元，一路跌到157，创10个月来 的新低。日本90%的能源靠进口，日元贬值让能源进口成本暴涨28%，老百姓的菜篮子都涨了。 更有趣的是，这和美联储的行动完全相反。美联储12月10日 刚宣布降息25个基点，而日本却要加息，全球货币政策史上都少见。日本这次加息，不光是为了自己，还可能是为了稳住日元，避免进一步贬值。但问题来 了，日本政府债务占GDP的260%，全球第一，加息对政府压力太大了。 现在市场早不关心"会不会加"，而是开始琢磨会"加几次"。 日本央行行长植田和男 说的"恰当判断"，恐怕是这十几年来最艰难的一次判断了。说白了，日本经济这"老汉"，是该站起来了，还是会被自己的债务压垮，就看下周 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 国债期货周报 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场短端回暖，超长端微幅回调。TL 合约在周三、周四回暖后，周五高开低走收 阴。 中央经济工作会议召开，货币政策基调未变，未来仍将以支持实体、消费并拉动通胀为主导。但 或采用结构与总量工具并用的方式，降准降息尽管仍有空间但对债市拉动或有限。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场短端回暖，超长端微幅回调。TL 合约在周三、周四回暖后，周五高开低走收 阴，收益率曲线趋平。本周，中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务。传统稳增 长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market may have a relatively insufficient preference for duration. The proportion of bonds held by institutions with a preference for longer - duration, such as commercial banks and insurance institutions, has decreased. To support macro - economic stability and control the upward pressure on yields, monetary policy is expected to provide more long - term liquidity [2] - Trump is considering the candidate for the next Fed Chair. His choice of Hassett or Warsh may be interpreted differently by the market in terms of the controllability and independence of monetary policy [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded, with different trends in various commodity prices and real estate transaction data [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Frequency Data Scan - **Domestic Bond Market Situation**: The year - on - year growth rate of the domestic social financing stock in November was 8.5%. The growth rate of government bonds slowed but remained at 18.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans dropped to about 1.1%, while enterprise financing (excluding foreign - currency loans) increased by about 7.8%. Since Q4 last year, the proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions in the inter - bank market bond custody volume has decreased. As of October this year, it was about 69.7%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from the 2024 high [2] - **International Financial Situation**: The Fed meeting in the week of December 12 fulfilled the interest - rate cut expectation. However, the 10 - year government bond yields of major developed economies mainly increased this week (US Treasury bonds by 5BP, German bonds by 6BP, French bonds by 5BP, Italian bonds by 6BP, and Spanish bonds by 4BP). Trump is considering the next Fed Chair, with Hassett and Warsh as candidates [2] - **Price Index Changes**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.73% year - on - year. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables increased by 0.71% week - on - week and 18.48% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 1.10% week - on - week in the week of December 5, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.09%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.84% on average week - on - week. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.99% and 2.03% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 2.31% on average week - on - week, and the aluminum spot price decreased by 0.32%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from December 1 - 10, 2025, was about 267,000 square meters per day, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides a large amount of high - frequency data on various aspects, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, showing the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in these indicators [17][18] 3.3 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicator Trends - The report presents multiple sets of charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - economic indicators, such as the year - on - year change in copper spot price and the year - on - year change in industrial added value (+ year - on - year change in PPI), etc., to help analyze the relationship between high - frequency data and macro - economic indicators [21] 3.4 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [90][95] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators, such as the daily average output of crude steel (decadal), production material price index, etc., with all seasonal trend indicators being the month - on - month increase rate [103] 3.6 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [152][153]