A股开盘，上证指数开涨0.25%，深证成指开涨0.87%，创业板指开涨1.14%。 ...

今天，上交所召开私募机构座谈会了，大家也应该看到大盘指数十连阳是不常见的，因为这次连续收涨量化机构不砸盘了？这说明近期量化交易收敛了很 多。 现在市场上多空分歧还是很大，但是稳定股市是现在的目标，机构这个时候需要发力共同维护市场稳定，而不是趁机扰乱市场交易秩序。 所以，尽管很多人一直认为A股缩量要大跌，但还是走出了持续的反弹向上，尤其是今天个股赚钱氛围回升之后，量能也开始放大了，说明信心也在慢慢恢 复了。 四是发布实施自由贸易试验区提升战略意见，自贸区高水平对外开放，高质量发展稳定经济； 现在几乎每天都有和股市直接相关的利好消息，这说明A股市场的战略意义得到了提升。 很多人比较在意A股市场量能不足，但是缩量情况下可以保持稳定拉升，更能说明当前主力资金筹码较为集中而且市场抛压整体较轻。 除了以上这些现象还不够，因为今天盘后还有这些关键消息： 一是人币国际化进程在加速； 二是美y指数最低跌破98美y，美指数的大跌反映出市场资金对于美元资产的担忧； 三是上交所召开私募机构座谈会，目的是希望机构联手推动股市持续上涨； 大盘指数可能不会一直连阳下去，但是现在的趋势是偏多的，这周指数反弹依旧不会很快，但是个股机会会明显增 ...

海外策略：关税主导预期，降息高度谨慎 美债方面，受益于关税政策的暂缓、贝森特表明会在必要时支持美债市场，美债市场的悲观情绪有所缓和，美 债利率高位回落。从基本面的角度来看，我们认为美国经济滞胀风险正在升高，美联储受制于通胀担忧，短期 内降息概率不高，美债利率走势或为宽幅震荡，维持高配中短久期美债的观点不变。 美元方面，短期看，美元有可能进一步向下。中期看，美元基本面的优势正在明显下降。一方面德国财政立场 由保守转为扩张令"美强欧弱"叙事遭遇挑战。另一方面，市场对关税政策的担忧更多集中在了"衰退"层面，美 国经济下行风险增大，对美元不利。 人民币方面，汇率依然面临中美利差倒挂、关税等客观压力。但是自美国推出对等关税以来，CNY中间价仅 缓慢抬升，稳汇率信号较强，叠加美元下行，未来人民币走势预计将以双向波动为主。 黄金方面，中性偏多。第一，美国滞胀风险上升。第二，关税政策不确定性升高，有利于强化央行购金逻辑。 第三，市场避险情绪仍然偏强。 关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非 ...

美国关税政策在全球范围内掀起一波又一波风暴，使宏观经济格局巨变，各类资产亟需破局之道。 彭博中国市场快评系列活动推出 关税专题网络研讨会 （共两期），彭博首席经济学家及业内专家 将围绕关税相关热点议题，向大家分享最新研究成果与洞见，助您在复杂多变的宏观环境中保持高 瞻视角，破局远航！ 关税系列主题第二期 展望美国经济，聚焦中国股票与消费市场 活动时间 第一期： (已结束) 2025年4月17日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 第二期： 2025年4月24日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 主要议题 主讲嘉宾 Anna Wong 彭博美国首席经济学家 美国宏观经济展望 中美不确定性与A股市场 悬而未决的关税对中国消费市场的影响 Marvin Chen 彭博行业研究资深股票策略师 林爱娜 彭博行业研究亚太地区主管，亚太消费及科技行业高级分析师 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核，敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒，活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒，请注意查收！ * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解释权。 ...

A股开盘，上证指数涨0.42%，深证成指涨1.23%，创业板指涨1.44%。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on April 14, 2025, at 10 AM to discuss the first quarter economic data [1] - Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, will introduce the import and export situation for the first quarter of 2025 and answer questions from reporters [1]

2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 下午市场零距离 第一财经《市场零距离》节目与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰就A股市场现状、板块投资机遇及出口 企业挑战进行了深入讨论。 在当下复杂的全球经济形势下，特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡备受瞩目，A股市场的走向成为各方 关注焦点。为此，第一财经《市场零距离》节目就相关市场问题，与中泰证券首席策略分析师徐驰在 4月7日当天展开了深度对话，全面剖析A股市场现状、板块投资机遇以及出口企业面临的挑战与前 景。 徐驰指出，当前市场波动显著，从全球范围来看，A股市场展现出了一定韧性。尽管今日盘面呈现大 幅低开且整体走势较弱的态势，但对比全球主要市场，A股部分指数表现相对突出。例如，近期纳斯 本文字数：1484，阅读时长大约3分钟 达克连续三天大幅下跌，累计跌幅近15%，若从今年年初至今计算，在特朗普关税政策实施前就已有 近20%的跌幅，整体跌幅超30%。而A股指数的下跌幅度在全球市场中处于相对较好的水平。 综合来看，受全球经济形势的影响，A股市场目前处于调整阶段。特朗普关税政策不仅引发了全球流 动性风险，导致包括黄金在内的避险资产价格下跌，还对过去40年的全球贸易秩序造成冲击 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the sharp decline of the index on Monday, there are still "aftershocks" in the sentiment, combined with continuous international fluctuations and strengthening technical pressure. The short - term trend is expected to turn to weak sideways movement, and there is a possibility of a second bottom - testing. It is recommended that investors continue to be defensive this week. In the medium term, the underlying logic of the starting point of the A - share bull market has not changed. After the short - term pessimistic expectations reach the extreme, the impact of external factors such as subsequent tariffs tends to be the exhaustion of negative factors. Referring to the market from H2 2019 to H1 2020, wait for the opportunity of a second upward attack after the sharp decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 73.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 21.5% [4] - The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly down from the 2.8% level of the previous month, hitting a six - month low and lower than the market forecast of 2.6%. The CPI in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, far lower than the market forecast (an increase of 0.1%), with the previous value being an increase of 0.2% [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - shares continued to rebound. The four major indexes opened higher and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed up 0.60%, the CSI 300 Index closed up 1.31%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 1.92%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 2.34%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+6.22%) and precious metals (+5.30%) led the gains yesterday, while telecommunications (-1.12%) and soft drinks (-0.96%) lagged. More than 4,900 stocks rose, and the number of daily limit stocks was 178, with the profit - making effect warming up [4] - **Technical Tracking**: Affected by the spill - over of external market risks, the indexes gapped down collectively this week. The technical indicators quickly turned bearish, the short - term rebound strength was weak, and the pressure at the daily and weekly levels strengthened [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of A - shares increased slightly, rising to the level of 1.6 - 1.7 trillion this week. The willingness of funds to bottom - fish was acceptable, but it was hard to say that the market had stabilized. It is expected that the divergence will continue today [4] Core Logic Summary - **Short - term Outlook**: Due to post - decline sentiment "aftershocks", international fluctuations, and strengthening technical pressure, the short - term trend is expected to be weakly sideways, with a possible second bottom - testing. Investors are advised to be defensive this week [3] - **Medium - term Outlook**: The underlying logic of the A - share bull market remains unchanged. After short - term pessimism, external factors may turn from negative to positive. Refer to the 2019H2 - 2020H1 market and wait for the second upward attack opportunity after the sharp decline [3] - **Key Factors to Watch**: Whether the Fed will make a compromise rate cut after the uncertainty of the US economic outlook; whether the intensity of domestic policies will increase after the earnings window at the end of April [3] Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operations**: The discounts of stock index futures contracts generally widened, especially for IF and IH. There is room for correction. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - IF and short - IM portfolio; for single - side operations, stay on the sidelines or close positions on the same day according to the trend [3] - **Options Operations**: The implied volatility of stock index options continued to decline. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of the CSI 300 Index in the current month reached the 20 - 21% level. The short - term volatility is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with few certain operation opportunities. You can participate in short - term put option buying or hold the current - month written options until maturity, but risk control should be set in advance [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CITIC Securities Investment Trust has announced a self-purchase plan of 20 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in the A-share market and the high-quality development of the Chinese economy [1] - The company has already utilized 5 million yuan of its own funds to subscribe to its CITIC Securities Industry Rotation Mixed Securities Investment Fund A class shares, committing to hold these shares for no less than one year [1] - The remaining self-purchase plan is expected to be completed within the next six months [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities Investment Trust expresses strong confidence in the deepening reforms of the capital market in China [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but it shows resilience compared to global markets, with some indices performing relatively well despite a weak overall trend [1][2] - The market is in an adjustment phase due to the impact of global economic conditions and the Trump tariff policy, which has led to liquidity risks and a contraction in global trade [2] Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, particularly value blue-chip and essential consumer goods, which have low valuations after recent market adjustments [3] - The seed agriculture sector is noted for its potential absolute return elasticity, benefiting from China's countermeasures against the U.S. and having solid fundamental support [3] Export Challenges - The export chain is expected to experience differentiation, with risks already priced in for direct exports to the U.S., while concerns arise for transshipment trade due to new tariffs on ASEAN countries [4] - Manufacturing companies with strong overseas layouts may benefit from the current trade dynamics, presenting investment opportunities for value reassessment [4]