央广网北京1月14日消息（记者高敏）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，黄金的强势行情已持续数 年，如何研判2026年黄金走势？实物黄金、黄金ETF，还有黄金股怎么选？经济之声交易实况《基金观 察》采访了博时基金首席市场策略分析师陈奥。 基金观察：黄金的强势行情已持续数年，怎么看待2026年黄金的走势？ 陈奥：中长期来看，黄金走势可能比较强势。但黄金并不是稳赚不赔的资产，即便从较长周期看，它也 许是一条向上的曲线，但是中间的波动一点都不小，尤其是在强势刷新历史新高后，往往会吸引大量资 金涌入。一旦出现一些影响信号，如地缘政治缓和、交易性指标恶化等，都有可能出现短期百分之几十 的大幅回调，提醒投资者一定要注意2026年短期波动风险。在资产配置组合中，黄金作为对冲风险部 分，占比10%左右比较合理。 基金观察：2026年影响黄金投资的主要因素有哪些？ 风险提示：投资有风险，入市需谨慎。嘉宾观点仅供参考。 基金观察：从具体投资的角度，实物黄金、黄金ETF，还有黄金股怎么选？哪种方式更适合当下的市 场？ 陈奥：从投资逻辑来看，黄金股不能跟实物黄金和黄金ETF放在一起比较，因为A股的黄金股更多受股 市变化影响。实物黄金和黄 ...

◎记者 张骄 定投黄金，逐步成为河南郑州"90后"上班族小陈的理财习惯。今年9月，他在工商银行开通了积存金业 务并完成首笔交易，此后关注金价波动便成了他的日常。而小陈的经历，正是2025年全球黄金投资潮中 的一朵"浪花"。 行至年末，黄金市场的狂热没有消退。12月22日，现货黄金历史性地冲破4400美元/盎司大关。截至上 海证券报记者发稿时，其以年内近68%的耀眼涨幅，大幅跑赢其他主要资产，改写了全球资产的回报叙 事。 从投资者的"买金潮"，到机构的策略配置，再到全球央行的储备增持，黄金已从传统的"避险符号"，演 变为最具共识的核心资产。一轮新的财富故事，也随之铺开。 新老玩家众生相 2025年10月，在国际金价创新高之时，南京广告从业者徐珍妮（化名）跃跃欲试。她在每克930元左右 的价位入场，买入招商银行积存金（一种黄金投资的储蓄产品）。"美联储降息和地缘冲突的消息，让 我期待金价冲到每克1000元。"徐珍妮对上海证券报记者说。 市场的剧本演绎却没那么简单，随后的追涨加仓将她牢牢套住。每天频繁看盘，也让她心情跌宕起伏， 经常感到"坐不住"。 "没卖就是没亏！"她告诉记者。好在目前金价回升，让她庆幸11月时的 ...

刘庭宇进一步表示，从基本面来看，黄金股呈业绩高增态势，2026年或有望继续上演戴维斯双击行情。 中证沪深港黄金股指数前十大成分股2025年前三季度业绩保持62%的高增速，符合市场预期。这一高增 长得益于金价中枢上行与金矿公司积极扩产形成的"量价齐升"格局，且这一核心逻辑在后续或仍将持续 兑现。从估值层面来看，截至11月30日，若按3800美元/盎司的金价测算，主要金矿公司2026年平均市 盈率仅为11-15倍，而历史上金矿公司估值中枢约为20倍，当前板块仍存在显著的估值修复空间。 刘庭宇表示，从资金维度看，无论是降息周期带来的交易型资金流入，还是在去美元化等趋势下长期配 置需求的增强，黄金板块均展现出显著的投资价值。尤其值得注意的是，近期黄金隐含波动率已快速回 落至历史平均水平，这在降低市场不确定性的同时，进一步提升了投资的性价比。 "美国11月失业率超预期抬升，叠加通胀数据低于预期、消费数据持续疲软，多重信号均指向美国经济 增长动能放缓，为美联储进一步宽松提供了充足依据。高盛、美银、瑞银及世界黄金协会等纷纷上调黄 金目标价至4900-5000美元区间，为黄金股的表现提供了坚实的价格支撑。"刘庭宇称。 12月 ...

观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表 现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证。投资不同类型的基金将获得 不同的收益预期，并承担不同程度的风险。通常基金的收益预期越高，风险越大。敬请投资者在做出投 资决策之前，仔细阅读产品法律文件，充分认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性，充分考虑自身的风险 承受能力，理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。 美联储独立性弱化与全球去美元化趋势，进一步强化了黄金的长期配置价值。当前美国滞胀发生概率较 高，而欧洲主要经济体也面临财政状况恶化与滞胀风险，从历史表现来看，黄金在滞胀环境中相对其他 大类资产更具优势，全球宏观环境对黄金资产形成明确利好。值得注意的是，近期美联储内部政策分歧 加剧，独立性逐渐动摇，叠加美国赤字率上行持续侵蚀美元与美债信用，全球"去美元化"趋势不断加 剧。在此背景下，不仅新兴市场央行有强烈的增配黄金需求——当前新兴市场央行黄金储备占比显著低 于全球平均水平，数字货币发行商也 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大草驴 来源：雪球 2025年12月 ， 全球金融市场迎来了一个历史性的转折点 。 美联储不仅如期降息0.25% ， 更在刚刚结束缩表的11月之后 ， 迅速掉头转向 ， 宣 布在30天内购债400亿美元 。 这一举措标志着继2008年次贷危机和2020年新冠疫情之后 ， 美联储历史上第三次大规模资产负债表扩张 （ 扩表 ） 正式拉开序幕 。 这不仅仅是 一次简单的货币政策调整 ， 更是一个明确的信号 ： 美国经济已再度步入 " 危机时刻 " 。 债务货币化 ： 唯一的 " 完美 " 解药 ？ 这次扩表的直接导火索 ， 是美国国债市场的供需失衡与债务利息的不可承受之重 。 下半年以来 ， 美债规模呈直线飙升态势 。 面对未来每年高达 2.5万亿至3万亿美元的新发国债规模 ， 以及高达1.5万亿美元的利息支出 ， 全球市场已显现出明显的 " 消化不良 " 。 尽管短期利率因降息有所回落 ， 但长端利率居高不下 ， 由于市场缺乏足够的接盘资金 ， 美债流动性面临枯竭风险 。 在这种背景 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the start of the current easing cycle in September 2024, totaling a cumulative reduction of 175 basis points [1] - The easing monetary policy is expected to benefit gold prices, with a favorable macro environment anticipated for 2026, as new rounds of monetary easing and fiscal expansion in the U.S. will significantly weaken the credibility of fiat currencies, supporting a higher price level for gold [1][2] - Market caution prior to the rate cut led to a stable gold price, with resistance observed around the $4250-$4300 per ounce range, which is a dense trading zone from October and November [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices need time to digest significant gains and the large amount of positions above $4200 per ounce, while the macro environment in 2026 is expected to remain favorable for gold [2] - The U.S. tax cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026 are projected to initiate a new global easing cycle, with competitive currency devaluation led by Japan, further depreciating credit currencies [2] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, up from 74.09 million ounces at the end of October, marking a continuous increase in gold holdings for 13 months, totaling 1.32 million ounces [2] - Gold stocks are currently lagging behind gold prices, with insufficient profit release expected for 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery to around 15 times PE, which remains low [2]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, global gold assets have maintained a strong market driven by three main factors: a phase of declining real interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks and uncertainty in U.S. domestic policies, and continued buying by global central banks, particularly from emerging economies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in global real interest rates is influenced by the U.S. fiscal deficit and long-term debt structure, making it difficult for real rates to rise further, while persistent inflation enhances long-term demand for gold [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and deteriorating security in Europe, along with uncertainties following the Trump administration's policies, have structurally increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. - Central banks remain the largest buyers of gold, with emerging market central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent tax policy adjustments in China regarding gold transactions mark a significant structural change in the gold market, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, affecting standard gold transactions [5][6]. - The new tax policies aim to clarify the tax burden and usage of gold, impacting costs for off-exchange gold, price differentials, retail premiums, and the structure of futures and ETFs, rather than directly altering domestic gold prices [6]. - Gold ETFs are expected to be the most affected by the new policies, as the attractiveness of physical gold for secondary sales diminishes, while virtual gold instruments like paper gold and ETFs remain unaffected by the VAT adjustments [10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The high beta sensitivity of gold assets to macroeconomic trends makes them a preferred choice for quantitative CTA, multi-asset strategies, and discretionary long strategies [5]. - The stricter regulations on gold withdrawal and usage declarations may lead to a decrease in arbitrage scale in futures, potentially increasing price volatility and enhancing the correlation of futures with international gold prices during trending markets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical financial situation in the U.S., indicating a turning point that may lead to a "currency reset" and a revaluation of gold to help repay sovereign debt [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - James Thorne predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach between 7400 and 7500 points by spring 2026, driven by a significant capital expenditure cycle fueled by AI and data center demands [3]. - Thorne argues that the current market is in the early stages of the largest capital expenditure supercycle in modern history, despite the ongoing sovereign debt crisis [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Valuation - Thorne dismisses concerns about market bubbles, suggesting that the current pricing of new technologies reflects a misunderstanding of their intrinsic value, as the market is dominated by narratives rather than fundamentals [4]. - He warns that while the market may see significant gains until 2031, it could face a "lost decade" afterward, where returns stagnate for ten years [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Policy - Thorne believes that the current financial system cannot sustain high interest rates and predicts that the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower overnight rates to around 2% [5]. Group 4: Gold and Alternative Investments - Thorne emphasizes that public trust in fiat currency is waning, making gold a preferred investment, with a long-term price target of $5000 in the short term and potentially $8000 by the end of the decade [6]. - He warns that the easy profits from gold mining stocks have likely been realized, and investors should focus on physical gold rather than high-leverage stocks [6]. - Thorne notes that Bitcoin is in a frustrating consolidation phase, and once it breaks out, it may experience rapid price movement [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a strong rebound after a significant drop from historical highs, benefiting gold mining stocks as a leveraged bet on gold's future performance [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The correlation between gold and gold mining stocks is increasing, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [1][5]. - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has shown returns exceeding 125% since the beginning of the year, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD.US) has increased by 57% during the same period [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider leveraged bets on gold through options on gold mining ETFs, as they present a more cost-effective way to capitalize on bullish expectations compared to direct gold ETF options [8][12]. - The current market environment suggests that GDX options are undervalued relative to gold options, making them an attractive investment for those bullish on gold prices [8][11]. Group 3: Company Performance - Major gold mining companies like Newmont Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., and Barrick Mining Corp. have seen stock price increases that are approximately double that of gold prices this year, with Barrick Mining's stock up over 130% [12][15]. - Despite anticipated declines in gold production, these companies are expected to achieve strong revenue growth, with adjusted earnings per share projected to increase by at least 79% year-over-year [12][15].

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and heightened market risk aversion, leading to a significant influx of funds into the gold market [3] - The fluctuation of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive as an investment, further driving up its price [3] - Central banks around the world are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing strong support for gold prices from the demand side [3] - There has been a noticeable net inflow of funds into gold ETFs, indicating a recovery in institutional investor confidence towards gold [3] Group 2 - For long-term investors, gold plays a crucial role in risk diversification within asset allocation, and it is advisable to consider gradual investments during price dips to achieve stable asset appreciation [4] - Short-term speculators should exercise caution as gold prices are currently at relatively high levels, and market volatility may increase, necessitating careful stop-loss strategies [4] Group 3 - There are two prevailing viewpoints regarding the future trajectory of gold prices: the optimistic perspective suggests that ongoing global economic uncertainty and central bank purchasing trends will sustain demand for gold, allowing for further price increases [5] - The cautious perspective warns that gold prices may have already priced in most favorable factors, and a strengthening dollar or improved market sentiment could lead to a withdrawal of funds from the gold market, resulting in potential price corrections [5] - Overall, while the long-term allocation value of gold remains, short-term volatility is expected, and investors should maintain a rational approach to avoid impulsive trading decisions [5] Group 4 - Investors interested in gold can participate through various means, including physical gold (such as bars and coins), which is suitable for long-term holding and has preservation and collectible value [6] - Other options include paper gold or gold ETFs, which offer convenience and liquidity, as well as gold stocks and funds that are influenced by individual stock and market factors, requiring investors to possess market analysis skills and risk tolerance [7]