2025.08. 01 本文字数：1862，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 7月31日，国家发改委召开新闻发布会，解读当前经济形势和经济工作。对市场关注的"两新"、"两 重"、人工智能+、民营经济、提振消费、整治内卷式竞争、全国统一大市场建设等问题予以回应。 国家发改委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，将不断完善稳就业扩内需政策工具箱，根据外部环境变化 及时推出，统筹今明两年政策衔接、工作衔接，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，努力实现物 价水平合理回升、社会就业大局稳定与经济增长的优化组合。 10月下达第四批690亿国补资金 今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕。国家发改委政研室主 任、新闻发言人蒋毅表示，将于10月份按计划下达第四批690亿元资金，届时将完成全年3000亿元 的下达计划。下一步，发改委将会同财政部、商务部等部门，督促地方落实资金配套责任、细化资金 使用计划，确保资金有序均衡用到年底。同时，进一步加强产品质量和价格监管，严防"先涨后 补"、骗补套补等风险，确保政策规范实施。 "两重"方面，今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元已全部下达完毕，中央预算 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to fluctuate strongly due to the boost of macro sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.45%); the closing price of HC2510 was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.45%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,776,150 lots, and the open interest was 2,237,249 lots, an increase of 10,870 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 694,556 lots, and the open interest was 1,595,284 lots, a decrease of 474 lots [3] - **Spot Price Information**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis and Spread Information**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 6 yuan/ton to 132 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (July 3)**: Rebar production increased by 3.24 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.9 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 4.17 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.79 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 3.77 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 0.1 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 4.96 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.29 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 16.77 tons [4] - **Social Inventory of Five Major Steel Products (Late June)**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 769 million tons, a decrease of 7 million tons (0.9%) from the previous month, with a narrowing decline. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 110 million tons (16.7%); compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 272 million tons (26.1%) [4][5] - **Policy News**: On July 1, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to regulate the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [5] - **Economic Indexes**: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of China's economic prosperity [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the I2509 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, due to the slow progress of trade negotiations between the US and Japan, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese exports on Tuesday. In terms of supply - demand, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The rise in steel prices drove the rebound of iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising upwards. Overall, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the domestic port inventory increased slightly; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal output of steel mills increased, and the demand support for iron ore still exists. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 733.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the position volume was 639,417 lots, down 8,458 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 39,580 lots, up 14,833 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 3,300 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 96.4 dollars/ton, up 1.25 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 759 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 671 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 9 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 95.10 dollars/ton, up 1.95 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.58, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 784 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore leaving ports was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,443.00, down 15.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 18.93 dollars/ton, down 0.91 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.04 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.25%, up 0.57 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.89%, up 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.64%, up 2.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.07%, up 1.94 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,800.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 136.52 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 118.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.29 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.69, a week - on - week increase of 0.71 [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a strong and volatile trend, boosted by macro sentiment [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,065 yuan/ton and 3,191 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 78 yuan/ton (2.61%) and 70 yuan/ton (2.24%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,371,284 lots, and the position was 2,226,379 lots, an increase of 150,312 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 920,428 lots, and the position was 1,595,758 lots, an increase of 73,130 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions increased. For example, in Shanghai, the price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of hot-rolled coil increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,220 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to regulate the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3]. - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of China's economic prosperity [3]. - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26th, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 5.66 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.79 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 12.48 million tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 2.07 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.99 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 1.14 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 0.72 million tons, hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 4.44 million tons, and the total demand of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 million tons [5]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures rose; commodities were differentiated, with silicon metal and poly-silicon falling, and the SCFIS(Europe) rising by nearly 8%. The top three gainers were the SCFIS(Europe), gold, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were silicon metal, glass, and coking coal [4][11][13]. - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures increased. Among commodities, silicon metal and poly - silicon declined, and the SCFIS(Europe) rose by nearly 8%. The SCFIS(Europe) rose 7.8% with a 3.2% month - on - month increase in position; gold rose 1.5% with a 7.5% month - on - month increase in position; TSR 20 rose 1.2% with a 4.5% month - on - month decrease in position. Silicon metal fell 4.3% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in position; glass fell 3.7% with a 10.4% month - on - month increase in position; coking coal fell 3.3% with a 0.3% month - on - month decrease in position [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Rise - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On July 1, it increased by 7.8% to 1904.9 points. EC2508 may trade between 1600 - 1900 points. Trump believes no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary said it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded slightly. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in river water levels have led to supply chain congestion at European ports. Some shipping companies reported a decrease in stockpiling, and there is a possibility of price hikes in the second half of July [17][18][19]. - **Gold**: On July 1, it rose 1.5% to 776.1 yuan/gram. Recent upward movement in risk appetite has pressured gold prices. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded slightly, it's hard to drive the gold market significantly. Focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easement period this week [25][26][27]. - **Copper**: On July 1, it increased by 1.1% to 80640 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support copper prices, which may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. DXY has been declining, boosting copper prices. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped below - $40, and raw material supply is tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have cut production. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, but inventories are still low [29][30][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. It also addressed standardizing government procurement and bidding, local investment promotion, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [37]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning to the expansion range [37].