Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Analyst Information - Black analyst: Li Yafei - Investment consulting number: Z0021184 - Date: November 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The steel price fluctuates due to the game between demand and cost [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Aspects Overseas Macro - The liquidity risk is alleviated in the short term. The US unemployment claim data confirms the weakening of the labor market, providing conditions for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. The Fed will officially end balance sheet reduction on December 1st [5][9] Domestic Macro - The domestic policy is in a short - term vacuum period. With the cold weather, coal trading shifts from "anti - involution" to "supply guarantee", and Mongolia plans to increase exports to China, which significantly impacts market sentiment and weakens coking coal [5][6][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The steel industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel demand enters the off - season, steel inventories are high, steel mill profits are greatly compressed, and seasonal maintenance increases. The slow destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory suppresses the overall rebound of steel prices, and the winter storage trading starts a bit early. Negative feedback dominates the industry logic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production reduction rhythm [5][12][14] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3110 (+53) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 140 (-23) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -7 (+34) yuan/ton [21] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. In the traditional off - season, rebar demand is at a low level [22][25][26] Rebar Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows that supply and demand are at a low level, and the inventory level is healthy. The supply from long - and short - process production and inventory data are also presented [27][28] Rebar Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 56 (+30) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 178 (+64) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 174 (+103) yuan/ton [36] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3302 (+32) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was -12 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 14 (+18) yuan/ton [41] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The peak season for hot - rolled coil demand is not prosperous as the production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries are not good. However, hot - rolled coil exports remain at a high level [42][43] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows production reduction and inventory destocking. The profit expansion leads to an increase in hot - rolled coil production [48][49] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -65 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 220 (+43) yuan/ton [53] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The cold - hot spread stops profit - taking. Data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, etc. are presented [54][55] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are presented, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou [60][61][63] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate are presented [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its driving force may come from the macro - level.权益表现偏好，短期政策刺激概率有限，中长期需要需求端发力以保证经济走出通缩螺旋 [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1总量矛盾 3.1.1 权益表现与政策刺激 - The equity performance is favorable, and the probability of short - term policy stimulus is limited [5] 3.1.2 资金供给 - In March 2025, the scale of ultra - long - term special sovereign bonds was 1.3 trillion yuan (300 billion yuan was for debt roll - over and 500 billion yuan was for supplementing bank capital). On May 20, 2025, the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year, with the 1 - year LPR dropping from 3.1% to 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR dropping from 3.6% to 3.5%. On May 15, 2025, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% deposit reserve ratio), and the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies was lowered by 5 percentage points [11] 3.1.3 资金需求 - Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and other aspects are presented to show the situation of capital demand [13][14] 3.2 地产 3.2.1 销售 - The real estate market is not stable, housing prices are falling, and the decline in new home transactions is expanding. The growth rate of spot - home sales has slowed down, and the growth rate of unsold housing area has also slowed down [18][22][26] 3.2.2 新开工与土地成交 - The decline in new construction starts has expanded [27][28] 3.3 基建 3.3.1 投资增速 - The "anti - involution" policy restricts supply, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined [29][30] 3.3.2 资金 - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds come from quasi - fiscal policies, such as the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 for "two - major" construction and the 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bonds in March 2025 [31][33][36] 3.3.3 项目 - Data on the PMI of the construction industry and the investment amount of major project starts are presented [38][39] 3.4 制造业 3.4.1 投资与利润 - The "anti - involution" policy restricts supply, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has declined, and industrial profits have expanded [40] 3.4.2 相关指标 - Data on power generation, coal consumption, freight volume, and price differences are presented [43][44][45] 3.4.3 主要工业品产销 - Production and sales data of major industrial products such as automobiles, white goods, and excavators are presented [47][48] 3.4.4 生产企业订单和销售 - Data on the planned and actual production of home appliances and their domestic sales are presented [50] 3.4.5 家电产销数据 - The home appliance industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. Structural factors include domestic sales and exports, and leading indicators include real estate completion and US housing sales [55] 3.4.6 汽车产销数据 - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. Structural factors include different types of vehicle production and sales, and leading indicators are enterprise orders from micro - level research [63] 3.4.7 机械产销数据 - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model. The export proportion of sub - categories is increasing year by year, and leading indicators are enterprise orders from micro - level research [71] 3.4.8 船舶产销数据 - The shipbuilding industry is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes in the long - term, supply - demand pattern and renewal cycle in the medium - term, and transportation efficiency in the short - term. Currently, shipyards have abundant orders on hand and new orders are growing rapidly [76] 3.5 钢材直接出口 - Exports are price - driven, with production scheduling leading by about one month and port departure being synchronous. High - frequency data such as port departure volume and price differences are presented [77][81][83] 3.6 钢材需求 - Demand has entered the off - season, and the industrial chain has shifted to a pattern of weak supply and demand. Data on apparent consumption, spot transactions, and price difference structures are presented [86][95][97]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, boosting consumption, and ensuring economic growth through a comprehensive policy toolbox, while addressing various economic challenges and opportunities in the current environment [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Initiatives - The NDRC plans to continuously improve policies aimed at stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on timely responses to external environmental changes [3]. - A total of 690 billion yuan will be allocated in the fourth batch of special bonds to support consumption, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [4]. - The NDRC has completed the allocation of 800 billion yuan for "two new" and "two heavy" construction projects, with a focus on accelerating project construction and ensuring effective use of funds [4][5]. Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Development - The NDRC is advancing the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative, recognizing the technology's potential to enhance productivity and efficiency across various industries [6][7]. - The initiative aims to promote large-scale commercial applications of AI, leveraging China's comprehensive industrial system and market scale to foster innovation and application synergy [7]. Group 3: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC is addressing issues of low-price and disorderly competition, with plans to revise pricing laws to better regulate unfair pricing practices [8][9]. - The government aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government intervention to improve market order and encourage quality competition among enterprises [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to fluctuate strongly due to the boost of macro sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.45%); the closing price of HC2510 was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton (1.45%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,776,150 lots, and the open interest was 2,237,249 lots, an increase of 10,870 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 694,556 lots, and the open interest was 1,595,284 lots, a decrease of 474 lots [3] - **Spot Price Information**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai increased by 30 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis and Spread Information**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 6 yuan/ton to 132 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (July 3)**: Rebar production increased by 3.24 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.9 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 4.17 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.79 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 3.77 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 0.1 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 4.96 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.29 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 16.77 tons [4] - **Social Inventory of Five Major Steel Products (Late June)**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 769 million tons, a decrease of 7 million tons (0.9%) from the previous month, with a narrowing decline. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 110 million tons (16.7%); compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 272 million tons (26.1%) [4][5] - **Policy News**: On July 1, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to regulate the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [5] - **Economic Indexes**: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of China's economic prosperity [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the I2509 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, due to the slow progress of trade negotiations between the US and Japan, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese exports on Tuesday. In terms of supply - demand, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The rise in steel prices drove the rebound of iron ore prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising upwards. Overall, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, the domestic port inventory increased slightly; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and hot metal output of steel mills increased, and the demand support for iron ore still exists. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 733.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the position volume was 639,417 lots, down 8,458 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 39,580 lots, up 14,833 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 3,300 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 96.4 dollars/ton, up 1.25 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 759 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 671 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 9 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 95.10 dollars/ton, up 1.95 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.58, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 784 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore leaving ports was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,443.00, down 15.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 18.93 dollars/ton, down 0.91 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.04 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 13.25%, up 0.57 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.89%, up 0.29 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 18.64%, up 2.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.07%, up 1.94 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,800.94 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 136.52 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 118.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.29 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 23.69, a week - on - week increase of 0.71 [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a strong and volatile trend, boosted by macro sentiment [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,065 yuan/ton and 3,191 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 78 yuan/ton (2.61%) and 70 yuan/ton (2.24%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 2,371,284 lots, and the position was 2,226,379 lots, an increase of 150,312 lots. The trading volume of HC2510 was 920,428 lots, and the position was 1,595,758 lots, an increase of 73,130 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions increased. For example, in Shanghai, the price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of hot-rolled coil increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,220 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed [3]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting proposed to regulate the low-price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3]. - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of China's economic prosperity [3]. - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26th, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 5.66 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.79 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 12.48 million tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 2.07 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.99 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 1.14 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar demand increased by 0.72 million tons, hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 4.44 million tons, and the total demand of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 million tons [5]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures rose; commodities were differentiated, with silicon metal and poly-silicon falling, and the SCFIS(Europe) rising by nearly 8%. The top three gainers were the SCFIS(Europe), gold, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were silicon metal, glass, and coking coal [4][11][13]. - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures increased. Among commodities, silicon metal and poly - silicon declined, and the SCFIS(Europe) rose by nearly 8%. The SCFIS(Europe) rose 7.8% with a 3.2% month - on - month increase in position; gold rose 1.5% with a 7.5% month - on - month increase in position; TSR 20 rose 1.2% with a 4.5% month - on - month decrease in position. Silicon metal fell 4.3% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in position; glass fell 3.7% with a 10.4% month - on - month increase in position; coking coal fell 3.3% with a 0.3% month - on - month decrease in position [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Rise - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On July 1, it increased by 7.8% to 1904.9 points. EC2508 may trade between 1600 - 1900 points. Trump believes no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary said it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded slightly. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in river water levels have led to supply chain congestion at European ports. Some shipping companies reported a decrease in stockpiling, and there is a possibility of price hikes in the second half of July [17][18][19]. - **Gold**: On July 1, it rose 1.5% to 776.1 yuan/gram. Recent upward movement in risk appetite has pressured gold prices. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded slightly, it's hard to drive the gold market significantly. Focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easement period this week [25][26][27]. - **Copper**: On July 1, it increased by 1.1% to 80640 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support copper prices, which may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. DXY has been declining, boosting copper prices. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped below - $40, and raw material supply is tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have cut production. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, but inventories are still low [29][30][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. It also addressed standardizing government procurement and bidding, local investment promotion, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [37]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning to the expansion range [37].