昨日，短端现券略偏暖，中证国债及政策性金融债0-3年指数上涨0.01%。 国债政金债ETF（511580）紧密跟踪中证国债及政策性金融债0-3年指数。该指数成分以剩余期限在3年 及以下、沪深交易所或银行间市场上市的国债及政金债为主（比例不低于基金资产净值的80%）。 招商基金表示，0-3年债券，也被称作中短期债券，具备风险较低、流动性好、价格波动较小、收益相 对稳定等特点。目前长短端期限利差已压缩至历史低分位水平，长端和超长端收益率也位于历史极值。 相较于长端，短端的确定性或更大。在政策利率连下台阶后，目前短债利率的绝对水平偏高，后续或存 在进一步下行的空间。 值得注意的是，国债政金债ETF（511580）实行"T+0"交易制度，提高交易效率，允许投资者当日买入 卖出，实现多种投资策略。日常费用方面，国债政金债ETF管理费率0.15%/年；托管费率0.05%/年，整 体略低于同类平均水平（0.17%、0.05%）。 热门ETF中，国债政金债ETF（511580）昨日大幅"吸金"近3.8亿元。 拉长时间线来看，Wind数据显示，该ETF连续3个交易日获资金净流入，累计净流入额超5亿元。最新 流通份额与规模均创上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and recovery, with slight increases in interest rates across various maturities following a rapid decline in rates the previous week [1][10]. - The report highlights that the fundamental data does not present a clear signal for the bond market to adjust, with demand still under pressure despite a slight recovery in CPI and PPI growth rates [2][11]. - It is noted that the adjustments in the bond market since the third quarter are primarily driven by institutional behavior rather than fundamental or liquidity factors, with a significant reduction in bond fund positions due to increased risk appetite in the equity market [3][15]. Group 2 - The recovery in the bond market since October is largely attributed to non-bank institutions replenishing their positions, while the participation of banks and other institutional investors remains limited due to profit-taking pressures and regulatory constraints [4][19]. - The report suggests that the impact of bank regulatory pressures will be more evident in the early to mid-fourth quarter, as banks prepare for asset allocation for the upcoming year [5][20]. - Overall, the report concludes that the bond market will continue to recover amidst fluctuations, with expectations for smoother declines in interest rates towards the end of the fourth quarter, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield [6][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the economic growth slowed marginally, and there was still pressure on the price front. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%. Achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. However, the nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, hitting a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, indicating continuous price pressure [7]. - Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year [7]. - The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020 [7]. - The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month [7]. - The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In Q3, the economy slowed down marginally, and the economic data in September was generally weak due to the drag on the demand side. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, basically in line with expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size rebounded by 1.3 pct to 6.5%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 0.4 pct to 3.0% compared with the previous month, lower than the expected 3.1%. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.0 pct and turned negative to - 0.5%, lower than the expected 0.03% [4]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Economic Growth**: In Q3, the economic growth slowed down marginally, and price pressure persisted. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 pct lower than Q2, the lowest single - quarter growth since Q3 2023, and the quarter - on - quarter growth rate remained flat at 1.1%. The cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%, and achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. The nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, showing continuous price pressure [7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year. In Q3, the industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, a 0.6 pct increase quarter - on - quarter. The capacity utilization rates of industries such as automobiles, electrical machinery, and electronic communications increased, but some traditional industries such as the mining industry still faced over - capacity pressure. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index remained flat at 5.6%, while construction activities were weak, and the year - on - year decline in cement production widened to - 8.6%, indicating a drag on the investment side [7]. - **Investment**: The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020, and the decline in private investment reached 8.9%. All three investment sub - items deteriorated: 1) The year - on - year decline in real estate investment in the current month widened to - 21.3%, the year - on - year decline in sales area was - 11.9%, and the year - on - year decline in sales volume was - 12.4%. Although the new construction and completion areas improved marginally, the funds in place were weak, and real - estate enterprises lacked confidence. 2) The full - caliber infrastructure investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year in the current month, affected by the limited fiscal space, and the investment in areas such as water conservancy and public facilities management declined. 3) Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.9% year - on - year in the current month. Weak terminal demand and the "anti - involution" phenomenon disturbed enterprises' willingness to make capital expenditures. The drag from construction and installation projects increased, and the implementation of physical work volume was slow. Weak investment became the core of weak domestic demand [7]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month. Both commodity retail (3.3%) and catering (0.9%) weakened, especially the year - on - year growth rate of catering above the designated size turned negative to - 1.6%. The effect of the "trade - in" measure declined: the year - on - year growth rate of home appliance retail decreased from 14.3% to 3.3%, and the growth rate of cultural office supplies declined. Structurally, rural consumption (4.0%) continued to be stronger than urban consumption (2.9%), which may be because the decline in housing prices had a deeper impact on the wealth effect of urban families. In Q3, the growth rates of residents' income and expenditure slowed down simultaneously: the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income decreased by 0.2 pct to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure decreased by 0.6 pct to 4.7%. The low - inflation environment affected consumer confidence. The urban surveyed unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.2% in September, but as of August, the surveyed unemployment rates of the 16 - 24 - year - old and 25 - 29 - year - old labor forces were still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The bond market may have priced in the marginal slowdown of the Q3 economy. The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7].

债市走向震荡修复 国债周报 2025/10/18 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：9月PMI数据显示，制造业景气度有所回升，但仍处于荣枯线下，供需两端环比均回暖，非制造业有小幅回落。 "反内卷"对 价格预期有所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察；出口方面，对美出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。往后看，在抢出口有所透 支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下，出口可能有一定压力。海外方面，美联储降息落地，后续宽松程度需关注关税引起的通胀变动。 1、2025年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为30.09万亿元，比上年同期多4.42万亿元。2025年9月末社会融资规模存量为437.08万亿元，同比增 长8.7%。 2、9月末，广义货币(M2)余额335.38万亿 ...

30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数，中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系，该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年（包含25年和30 年）的记账式国债组成（不包含特别国债），可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基 金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要 等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产品情况及销售机构适当性意见的基础 上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产 品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至2025年10月14日 10:36，30年国债ETF(511090)下修调整。拉 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit market is experiencing a compression of credit spreads, with institutions favoring short- to medium-term credit bonds due to significant adjustments in long-term bonds [1][10][15] - The overall market sentiment has been influenced by the recent stock market performance, which has increased risk appetite, alongside regulatory impacts that have led to ongoing adjustments in the bond market [2][17] - The report anticipates that the bond market will gradually enter a recovery phase in the fourth quarter, driven by fundamental factors and a potential easing of liquidity conditions [2][17] Group 2 - Seasonal factors suggest that the bond market typically experiences neutral fluctuations in October, with a smoother downward trend expected after December [3][19] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs has seen limited growth in scale and lower trading activity compared to the initial batch, although the excess spread remains stable [4][24] - The current steep yield curve for credit bonds indicates that long-term credit yields are relatively high, with specific advantages noted for certain types of bonds, such as secondary capital bonds [5][16]