Group 1 - The short-end bonds showed slight warmth, with the China Government Bond and Policy Financial Bond 0-3 Year Index rising by 0.01% [1] - The Government Bond and Policy Financial Bond ETF (511580) attracted nearly 380 million yuan in inflows yesterday, marking a total net inflow of over 500 million yuan over the last three trading days [2] - The ETF closely tracks the China Government Bond and Policy Financial Bond 0-3 Year Index, which primarily consists of bonds with a remaining maturity of 3 years or less [2] Group 2 - The current macro environment indicates stable liability growth in the banking system, with a high reliance on bond allocation through the financial market [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to see an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the bond market, with a mixed backdrop of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations [3] - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a volatile recovery, influenced by the interplay between stock and bond markets and increasing allocation forces [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment and recovery, with slight increases in interest rates across various maturities following a rapid decline in rates the previous week [1][10]. - The report highlights that the fundamental data does not present a clear signal for the bond market to adjust, with demand still under pressure despite a slight recovery in CPI and PPI growth rates [2][11]. - It is noted that the adjustments in the bond market since the third quarter are primarily driven by institutional behavior rather than fundamental or liquidity factors, with a significant reduction in bond fund positions due to increased risk appetite in the equity market [3][15]. Group 2 - The recovery in the bond market since October is largely attributed to non-bank institutions replenishing their positions, while the participation of banks and other institutional investors remains limited due to profit-taking pressures and regulatory constraints [4][19]. - The report suggests that the impact of bank regulatory pressures will be more evident in the early to mid-fourth quarter, as banks prepare for asset allocation for the upcoming year [5][20]. - Overall, the report concludes that the bond market will continue to recover amidst fluctuations, with expectations for smoother declines in interest rates towards the end of the fourth quarter, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield [6][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the economic growth slowed marginally, and there was still pressure on the price front. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%. Achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. However, the nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, hitting a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, indicating continuous price pressure [7]. - Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year [7]. - The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020 [7]. - The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month [7]. - The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In Q3, the economy slowed down marginally, and the economic data in September was generally weak due to the drag on the demand side. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, basically in line with expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size rebounded by 1.3 pct to 6.5%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 0.4 pct to 3.0% compared with the previous month, lower than the expected 3.1%. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.0 pct and turned negative to - 0.5%, lower than the expected 0.03% [4]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Economic Growth**: In Q3, the economic growth slowed down marginally, and price pressure persisted. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 pct lower than Q2, the lowest single - quarter growth since Q3 2023, and the quarter - on - quarter growth rate remained flat at 1.1%. The cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%, and achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. The nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, showing continuous price pressure [7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year. In Q3, the industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, a 0.6 pct increase quarter - on - quarter. The capacity utilization rates of industries such as automobiles, electrical machinery, and electronic communications increased, but some traditional industries such as the mining industry still faced over - capacity pressure. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index remained flat at 5.6%, while construction activities were weak, and the year - on - year decline in cement production widened to - 8.6%, indicating a drag on the investment side [7]. - **Investment**: The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020, and the decline in private investment reached 8.9%. All three investment sub - items deteriorated: 1) The year - on - year decline in real estate investment in the current month widened to - 21.3%, the year - on - year decline in sales area was - 11.9%, and the year - on - year decline in sales volume was - 12.4%. Although the new construction and completion areas improved marginally, the funds in place were weak, and real - estate enterprises lacked confidence. 2) The full - caliber infrastructure investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year in the current month, affected by the limited fiscal space, and the investment in areas such as water conservancy and public facilities management declined. 3) Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.9% year - on - year in the current month. Weak terminal demand and the "anti - involution" phenomenon disturbed enterprises' willingness to make capital expenditures. The drag from construction and installation projects increased, and the implementation of physical work volume was slow. Weak investment became the core of weak domestic demand [7]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month. Both commodity retail (3.3%) and catering (0.9%) weakened, especially the year - on - year growth rate of catering above the designated size turned negative to - 1.6%. The effect of the "trade - in" measure declined: the year - on - year growth rate of home appliance retail decreased from 14.3% to 3.3%, and the growth rate of cultural office supplies declined. Structurally, rural consumption (4.0%) continued to be stronger than urban consumption (2.9%), which may be because the decline in housing prices had a deeper impact on the wealth effect of urban families. In Q3, the growth rates of residents' income and expenditure slowed down simultaneously: the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income decreased by 0.2 pct to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure decreased by 0.6 pct to 4.7%. The low - inflation environment affected consumer confidence. The urban surveyed unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.2% in September, but as of August, the surveyed unemployment rates of the 16 - 24 - year - old and 25 - 29 - year - old labor forces were still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The bond market may have priced in the marginal slowdown of the Q3 economy. The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the decline in risk appetite are conducive to the repair of the bond market. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress in the later stage is high. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power [13]. - From the perspective of fundamentals, the September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the price level has rebounded, but affected by the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the base, the growth rate of social financing has declined marginally [10][13]. - In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. The current market may generally remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand repair and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair in a volatile manner [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: The September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. In the future, exports may face certain pressure. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the subsequent degree of easing needs to pay attention to the inflation changes caused by tariffs. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The central government has arranged 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing. This week, there was a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.04BP; the 30Y treasury bond yield closed at 2.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50BP; the latest 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00BP [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis spreads of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][24][27][30][33][38]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, and the economic growth in the first half of the year maintained resilience [47]. - PMI: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI decreased by 0.4 points from the previous value to 50.1%. The manufacturing and service industries showed differentiation. The sub - items of the manufacturing PMI showed that both supply and demand ends had warmed up [47][48][53]. - Price Index: In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI increased by 0.1%, core CPI remained unchanged, and PPI remained unchanged [56]. - Export: In September 2025, China's import and export data slightly exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [59]. - Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, showing a slowdown [62]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. In August, the prices of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new construction area and construction area of houses also showed a downward trend year - on - year [65][68]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In August, the unadjusted CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [74][77][80]. - EU Economy: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [80]. - Eurozone Economy: In September, the final value of the Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service industry PMI was 51.3 [83]. 3.4. Liquidity - In September, the growth rate of M1 was 7.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.4%. The increment of social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The main source of social financing was the growth of government bonds. In the sub - items of social financing, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector remained stable. In September, the balance of MLF was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [88][91][94]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report lists the latest yields of domestic and US treasury bonds and their week - on - week changes, as well as the changes in repurchase rates [97]. - Exchange Rates: No specific analysis of exchange rates is provided, only relevant charts are presented [108].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.44% over the past two weeks as of October 13, 2025, indicating a positive trend in the bond market despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF recorded an intraday turnover of 11.49%, with a total transaction volume of 3.299 billion yuan, reflecting active market trading [1] - The average daily transaction volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past month was 9.163 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Yield Changes - On October 13, the yields for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds increased by 1.8 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively, closing at 1.76% and 2.11% [1] - The bond market experienced a brief adjustment after initial selling pressure in the stock market, leading to a rebound in equity markets and a subsequent rise in long-term yields [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - According to Guosheng Securities, the bond market exhibited significant volatility in the third quarter, influenced by strong performance in the stock and commodity markets, as well as public fund fee reforms [2] - The report suggests that the bond market's operational logic may shift in the fourth quarter, with limited downward space for interest rates and potential external factors, such as escalating US-China tariff issues, increasing market volatility [2] - Despite the recent rise in stock market risk appetite, the current economic fundamentals and asset scarcity do not support a trend of rising interest rates [2] - The liquidity in the market is expected to remain ample, supported by the central bank's policy to maintain reasonable liquidity levels, which provides a foundation for the bond market's stabilization [2] Group 4: Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years, serving as a benchmark for investments in this category [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit market is experiencing a compression of credit spreads, with institutions favoring short- to medium-term credit bonds due to significant adjustments in long-term bonds [1][10][15] - The overall market sentiment has been influenced by the recent stock market performance, which has increased risk appetite, alongside regulatory impacts that have led to ongoing adjustments in the bond market [2][17] - The report anticipates that the bond market will gradually enter a recovery phase in the fourth quarter, driven by fundamental factors and a potential easing of liquidity conditions [2][17] Group 2 - Seasonal factors suggest that the bond market typically experiences neutral fluctuations in October, with a smoother downward trend expected after December [3][19] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs has seen limited growth in scale and lower trading activity compared to the initial batch, although the excess spread remains stable [4][24] - The current steep yield curve for credit bonds indicates that long-term credit yields are relatively high, with specific advantages noted for certain types of bonds, such as secondary capital bonds [5][16]