东北证券发布研报称，OCS产业趋势目前仍由海外大厂主导，国内厂商参与度逐步提升，建议重点关注 零部件供应或代工机会。重点关注三大投资方向：已进入海外OCS供应/代工环节的厂商、有潜力进入 海外OCS供应/代工环节的厂商、积极布局OCS的光模块厂商。 东北证券主要观点如下： OCS光交换是一种无需光电/电光(O/E/O)转换，直接实现光信号在光纤端口间切换的技术 OCS原理是直接对光信号进行物理路径的重构，从而在输入/输出端口之间建立专用光路。数据中心中 采用OCS可显著提升整体网络性能、运行效率和可持续性，优势显著。OCS可应用于数据中心"三张网 络"：TPU集群互连(scale up网络)、Spine层(scale out网络)、DCI跨数据中心互连(scale across网络)。 OCS有望迎来国内外共振，市场前景广阔 海外，OCP宣布成立光交换OCS子项目，有望推进行业标准化;国内，运营商与工信部积极推进OCS应 用落地。根据Cignal AI的测算，2025年OCS市场由谷歌MEMSOCS主导，总体市场规模约为4亿美 元;2029年OCS的市场规模将超过16亿美元，四年CAGR约为41%。Light ...

Core Insights - Google is making a significant investment in optical circuit switches (OCS), with an expected procurement of over 23,000 units by 2025, driven by the demand for its TPU chip clusters [1] - The global OCS market is projected to grow from $36.6 million in 2024 to $2.022 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% [5] - OCS technology is becoming essential for AI computing clusters, as it meets the high bandwidth and low latency requirements necessary for AI model training [11] Investment and Market Dynamics - Google's investment in OCS systems is expected to reach $3 billion by 2026, with a significant order of 4,600 units from Polatis valued at $250 million [3] - The OCS market is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% from $7.278 million in 2020 to $36.6 million in 2024, and is anticipated to exceed $2 billion by 2031 [12] Technological Advancements - OCS technology offers advantages over traditional electrical switches, including a theoretical efficiency that can be 1,000 times greater and a power consumption reduction of around 40% [6] - Three main technological pathways exist in the OCS field: MEMS, DLC, and DLBS, with DLBS (piezoelectric ceramics) showing the most promise for high stability AI cluster interconnections [7][10] Competitive Landscape - The OCS market is currently dominated by North American companies, which hold 58% of the market share, while Chinese manufacturers are rapidly gaining ground with a 28% share of global production capacity by 2024 [13] - Chinese companies like Dekoli and Guangxun Technology are innovating in the OCS space, with Dekoli's photon routing engine achieving latency below 10 microseconds and Guangxun being the only domestic producer of MEMS optical switches [13][14] Future Outlook - The demand for OCS is expected to surge as AI server interconnect needs increase, with estimates suggesting that 48 OCS switches are required for every 4,096 TPU units [11] - The collective actions of major tech companies, including Google, Meta, and Nvidia, are accelerating the adoption of OCS technology, marking a significant shift in data center infrastructure [16]

Summary of OCS Switch Technology, Trends, and Market Potential Industry Overview - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology is applied in traditional and AI data centers, enabling low-power and efficient data transmission through optical channels. The market potential is projected to be 30-40 times larger than the current electrical switch market [1][6][26]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: Google has scaled up the deployment of OCS in its TPU network, purchasing approximately 12,000 units. If other potential clients like Microsoft, NVIDIA, Oracle, and Meta adopt OCS at scale, the market could expand significantly, with expectations of reaching 300,000 units in the coming years [1][6][26]. - **Technological Advancements**: Google’s OCS switch has achieved a thousand-fold increase in speed while reducing power consumption, showcasing significant progress in the switch technology sector [2][4]. - **Core Advantages**: OCS technology eliminates the need for optical-electrical conversion, directly interconnecting different cards through optical channels, which significantly reduces power consumption. For instance, a 51.2T electrical switch consumes about 3 kW, while OCS can save nearly half of that power [1][9]. - **Industry Initiatives**: The establishment of the Optical Switch Project Group by the Open Compute Project (OCP) indicates a growing recognition of OCS as a complement to traditional electrical switches and CPU switches [1][7]. Important Developments - **Domestic Collaborations**: In China, Xizhi Technology, in collaboration with ZTE and Biran Technology, launched a full-optical OCS supernode network, indicating a trend towards advanced optical interconnection solutions [1][8]. - **Application in AI Networks**: OCS is seen as a future trend in AI networks due to its low power and low latency characteristics, although current switching times may still favor electrical switches for frequent data exchanges [13][15]. - **Investment Returns**: NVIDIA has reported that by adding OCS devices, they can achieve automatic switching in case of hardware failures, reducing the risk of interruptions in large model training, with an investment payback period of about one to two years [4][14][16]. Market Dynamics - **Future Demand**: Google is expected to procure between 16,000 to 20,000 OCS switches by 2026, with a potential market value of around $1 billion based on a unit price of $50,000 [25]. - **Long-term Market Potential**: The OCS market is projected to exceed $2 billion by 2029, with significant interest from major players like Microsoft, Oracle, and NVIDIA, indicating a shift towards OCS solutions [26][30]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Traditional electrical switches currently dominate the market, with an estimated 800,000 to 1 million units. However, OCS is expected to capture a 30% market share in the next few years, potentially reaching over 300,000 units by 2030 [30]. Additional Insights - **Technological Variants**: OCS technology includes various solutions such as MEMS, silicon-based liquid crystal, and piezoelectric ceramics, each with unique advantages and challenges [5][28]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Key suppliers for Google’s OCS switches include Lumentum, Claudeline, and Coherent, with significant contributions from domestic manufacturers like Saiwei Electronics and Guanghua Technology [19][32][33]. - **Adoption Trends**: While overseas data centers like Google have adopted OCS extensively, domestic centers are beginning to explore its use, indicating a gradual shift in the industry [29]. This comprehensive overview highlights the transformative potential of OCS technology in the data center industry, emphasizing its advantages, market dynamics, and future growth prospects.

Core Viewpoint - Optical Circuit Switches (OCS) differ from traditional switches by enabling direct optical switching without optical-electrical conversion, leading to reduced hardware costs and power consumption [1][2][5]. Group 1: Overview of Optical Switches - OCS operates by forwarding optical signals through wavelength division multiplexing and cross-connection, with optical-electrical conversion occurring at the server side [1][2]. - The main performance indicators of optical switches include switching speed, insertion loss, return loss, durability, and reliability [2][3]. Group 2: Current Development Status - OCS technology has gained attention due to Google's initiatives, with increasing applications in data centers [5][6]. - The rise of east-west traffic in large data centers has created bandwidth bottlenecks in traditional three-layer architectures, necessitating the adoption of the Spine-and-Leaf architecture for better scalability and reduced latency [6][8]. Group 3: Market Demand and Shipment Volume - Global shipments of optical switches reached 10,000 units in 2023, with an expected increase to approximately 13,000 units in 2024, driven by growing bandwidth demands in machine learning and cloud computing [16][19]. Group 4: R&D Directions - Despite the promising outlook for optical switch technology, challenges remain, including high initial capital expenditures and signal insertion loss [14][19]. - Continuous technological advancements are anticipated to enhance performance and reduce manufacturing and deployment costs, solidifying the foundation for large-scale applications [19].