最近AI行业可谓，一波刚刚平息，一波又来侵袭。刚刚打消了市场对AI产业"泡沫"的顾虑，现 在市场又开始担心谷歌的强势崛起将影响到英伟达未来在AI产业的布局。但真正"鲶鱼效应"并 非是非此即彼，而是共同推进AI产业往新的高度发展。 01 谷歌&英伟达："绝代双骄"而非你死我活 谷歌近期在AI算力与模型领域的密集动作引发市场广泛关注，每六个月算力翻倍、TPU产能大 幅扩张、模型能力持续升级等举措，似乎预示着行业竞争将进一步加剧。但深入分析英伟达的 核心优势与行业格局后可以发现， 谷歌的加码难以撼动英伟达的龙头地位，两者更可能形 成"差异化竞争、协同发展"的格局。 英伟达的核心护城河：技术垄断+生态壁垒+产能优势 首先，在核心硬件技术方面，英伟达凭借GPU产品的绝对优势占据算力市场主导地位。GPU在 并行计算效率上的天然优势使其成为AI训练和推理的首选硬件，而英伟达通过持续的技术迭 代，不断巩固领先优势。GB300系列产品的成功爬坡的RTX300系列的强势表现，证明了其在 芯片设计、制造工艺等方面的深厚积累。 相比之下，谷歌TPU虽在特定场景下具备性能优势，但主要用于自身AI基础设施建设，市场化 程度和生态兼容性远 ...

11月25日，和讯投顾魏玉根表示，今天A股大反弹呈现普涨格局，主要受三大利好推动：一是昨天美股 因前期跌多了而普涨，且科技股尤其是谷歌领涨，这种强势传导至A股；二是此前美联储降息概率降低 33%，近期多位美联储官员释放鸽派信号，使降息概率重新压缩到80%以上，受此影响，今天有色金 属、黄金板块涨势不错；三是"小特子"出来缓和相关事件，此前最大的利空因素基本出清。不过，对于 是否追涨需谨慎，明天市场有可能分化，因为此前每天4000多家下跌的情况不可持续，之后迎来近5000 家上涨的普涨，接下来下跌个股数量可能会偏多，所以今天适合控制仓位。另外，OCS交换机板块前几 天在大盘下跌、散户抛售时逆势缓慢上涨，今天情绪好转迎来高潮，明天也可能出现分化。 ...

创50ETF紧密跟踪创业板50指数，创业板50指数由创业板市场中日均成交额较大的50只股票组成，反映 了创业板市场内知名度高、市值规模大、流动性好的企业的整体表现。 创50ETF(159681)，场外联接(A：018482；C：018483；I：023024)。 消息面上，光模块持续走高，"易中天"大涨，存储芯片概念走强，随着中美关系缓和迹象出现，科技人 工智能主线回归。机构指出，随着光通信传输速率越来越高，低损耗、低功耗需求日益迫切，CPO共封 装产业趋势加快，重点关注以下领域：（1）光模块CPO；（2）OCS交换机；（3）交换机CPO；（4） 柜内OIO； 数据显示，截至2025年9月30日，创业板50指数(399673)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代(300750)、中际旭 创(300308)、东方财富(300059)、新易盛(300502)、阳光电源(300274)、胜宏科技(300476)、汇川技术 (300124)、迈瑞医疗(300760)、亿纬锂能(300014)、同花顺(300033)，前十大权重股合计占比69.36%。 截至2025年10月21日 13:14，创业板50指数(399673)强势上 ...

Core Insights - Google is making a significant investment in optical circuit switches (OCS), with an expected procurement of over 23,000 units by 2025, driven by the demand for its TPU chip clusters [1] - The global OCS market is projected to grow from $36.6 million in 2024 to $2.022 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% [5] - OCS technology is becoming essential for AI computing clusters, as it meets the high bandwidth and low latency requirements necessary for AI model training [11] Investment and Market Dynamics - Google's investment in OCS systems is expected to reach $3 billion by 2026, with a significant order of 4,600 units from Polatis valued at $250 million [3] - The OCS market is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 49.8% from $7.278 million in 2020 to $36.6 million in 2024, and is anticipated to exceed $2 billion by 2031 [12] Technological Advancements - OCS technology offers advantages over traditional electrical switches, including a theoretical efficiency that can be 1,000 times greater and a power consumption reduction of around 40% [6] - Three main technological pathways exist in the OCS field: MEMS, DLC, and DLBS, with DLBS (piezoelectric ceramics) showing the most promise for high stability AI cluster interconnections [7][10] Competitive Landscape - The OCS market is currently dominated by North American companies, which hold 58% of the market share, while Chinese manufacturers are rapidly gaining ground with a 28% share of global production capacity by 2024 [13] - Chinese companies like Dekoli and Guangxun Technology are innovating in the OCS space, with Dekoli's photon routing engine achieving latency below 10 microseconds and Guangxun being the only domestic producer of MEMS optical switches [13][14] Future Outlook - The demand for OCS is expected to surge as AI server interconnect needs increase, with estimates suggesting that 48 OCS switches are required for every 4,096 TPU units [11] - The collective actions of major tech companies, including Google, Meta, and Nvidia, are accelerating the adoption of OCS technology, marking a significant shift in data center infrastructure [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhili Fang (301312.SZ), does not currently have any equipment or technological reserves in the field of OCS optical switches [1] Group 1 - An investor inquired about the company's involvement in the OCS optical switch sector on an investor interaction platform [1] - The company responded on September 24, indicating that it is not engaged in this field at the moment [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in computing power demand, with significant increases observed since June 2023. The sector is entering a phase of valuation upgrades, with leading companies like Xuchuang expected to have a reasonable valuation of at least 30 times earnings due to increasing demand visibility by 2027 [3][6]. Company Insights - **Xuchuang**: Valuation outlook is between 600 billion to 800 billion RMB, with potential to reach 40-50 times in a bull market [6]. - **Google**: Anticipates capital expenditures of $85 billion, with a strong ecosystem including TPU chips and OCS technology, which is attracting interest from major players like OpenAI, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft [7][11]. - **Domestic Players**: Companies like Alibaba and Baidu are advancing their AI chip developments, with IPO plans and technological breakthroughs contributing to the domestic computing power chain [5][6]. Technology Developments - **Optical Switching (OCS)**: OCS technology is crucial for high-speed interconnects in data centers, with increasing demand for high-speed interconnects leading to new market opportunities. Google has deployed approximately 15,000 OCS devices, expecting to reach 30,000 by 2026 and 50,000 by 2027, with the overall market projected to reach 770,000 units by 2027 [11][2]. - **OCS Advantages**: OCS technology offers low power consumption, low cost, and low latency, making it attractive for companies like Meta and Microsoft. It is particularly effective in handling high-throughput data streams and dynamic network topologies [4][14]. Market Potential - The OCS market is expected to approach 100 billion RMB by 2027, with significant growth driven by the adoption of OCS technology by major cloud service providers [11][38]. - The AI industry's long-term demand is supported by major companies like NVIDIA, Meta, and TSMC, with projected smart spending reaching $3-4 trillion by 2030 for NVIDIA alone [9]. Competitive Landscape - Key suppliers for OCS technology include TI, Saiwei Electronics, Fujing, and Fengjing Technology, with major manufacturers like Dekoli and Xuchuang actively involved in the market [36][39]. - The competition in OCS technology is intensifying, with various companies showcasing their products at industry events, indicating a collaborative push towards commercialization [12][39]. Future Outlook - Google plans to introduce a second-generation OCS technology using coherent liquid crystal solutions to address current bottlenecks in channel capacity, with commercial deployment expected in 2026 [19]. - The OCS technology is anticipated to maintain high growth rates over the next three to five years, with significant contributions from both domestic and international players in the supply chain [38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and competitive dynamics within the AI and OCS technology sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry chain is experiencing a surge, expanding from PCB and CPO to more branches, with OCS concept stocks witnessing significant growth in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - OCS concept stocks collectively surged, with notable increases in share prices: Dekoli up 20%, Guangku Technology up over 17%, Lingyun Light up over 16%, and others like Tengjing Technology and Saiwei Electronics also showing gains [1][2] - The trading volume for Dekoli reached 165,400 shares, while Guangku Technology saw 325,900 shares traded [2] Group 2: OCS Technology Overview - OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology differs from traditional switches by reconstructing the physical path of optical signals, leading to higher bandwidth capacity, lower latency, and reduced energy consumption [3] - The technology is gaining attention as data volumes grow exponentially, with OCS potentially leading the next era of optical communication [3] Group 3: Industry Developments - The 26th China International Optoelectronic Exposition showcased OCS as a mainstream direction for next-generation switching technology, with multiple manufacturers, including Guangku Technology and Lingyun Light, presenting their OCS solutions [2][3] - Google has implemented OCS in its Jupiter data center network, achieving a 30% increase in throughput, a 40% reduction in power consumption, and a 50-fold decrease in network downtime [3] Group 4: Challenges and Competition - OCS technology faces challenges such as high costs, the need for upgrades to existing optical modules, and the requirement for standardization to ensure compatibility among different manufacturers [4] - The competitive landscape includes ongoing iterations of electrical switches and optical-electrical hybrid solutions, which may pose alternatives to OCS as the industry evolves [4]

Group 1 - The company currently does not have OCS switch products and is actively exploring new network architectures and cutting-edge technologies to meet changing user demands [1] - The company has not partnered with NVIDIA to develop CPO switches [1] - The recent release of the State Council's AI+ action plan is expected to accelerate the iteration and evolution of AI technologies, promoting high-quality development across various industries [1] Group 2 - As AI application scenarios deepen, the demand for computing power is expected to continue rising [1] - Computing power networks are anticipated to experience sustained development opportunities as a key support in this trend [1]

Group 1 - The company currently does not have OCS switch products and is actively exploring new network architectures and cutting-edge technologies to meet changing user demands [1] - The company has not partnered with NVIDIA to develop CPO switches [1] - The recent release of the State Council's AI+ action plan is expected to accelerate the iteration of AI technologies and promote high-quality development across various industries [1] Group 2 - As AI application scenarios deepen, the demand for computing power is expected to continue rising [1] - Computing power networks are anticipated to experience sustained development opportunities as a key support in this trend [1]

Summary of OCS Switch Technology, Trends, and Market Potential Industry Overview - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) technology is applied in traditional and AI data centers, enabling low-power and efficient data transmission through optical channels. The market potential is projected to be 30-40 times larger than the current electrical switch market [1][6][26]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: Google has scaled up the deployment of OCS in its TPU network, purchasing approximately 12,000 units. If other potential clients like Microsoft, NVIDIA, Oracle, and Meta adopt OCS at scale, the market could expand significantly, with expectations of reaching 300,000 units in the coming years [1][6][26]. - **Technological Advancements**: Google’s OCS switch has achieved a thousand-fold increase in speed while reducing power consumption, showcasing significant progress in the switch technology sector [2][4]. - **Core Advantages**: OCS technology eliminates the need for optical-electrical conversion, directly interconnecting different cards through optical channels, which significantly reduces power consumption. For instance, a 51.2T electrical switch consumes about 3 kW, while OCS can save nearly half of that power [1][9]. - **Industry Initiatives**: The establishment of the Optical Switch Project Group by the Open Compute Project (OCP) indicates a growing recognition of OCS as a complement to traditional electrical switches and CPU switches [1][7]. Important Developments - **Domestic Collaborations**: In China, Xizhi Technology, in collaboration with ZTE and Biran Technology, launched a full-optical OCS supernode network, indicating a trend towards advanced optical interconnection solutions [1][8]. - **Application in AI Networks**: OCS is seen as a future trend in AI networks due to its low power and low latency characteristics, although current switching times may still favor electrical switches for frequent data exchanges [13][15]. - **Investment Returns**: NVIDIA has reported that by adding OCS devices, they can achieve automatic switching in case of hardware failures, reducing the risk of interruptions in large model training, with an investment payback period of about one to two years [4][14][16]. Market Dynamics - **Future Demand**: Google is expected to procure between 16,000 to 20,000 OCS switches by 2026, with a potential market value of around $1 billion based on a unit price of $50,000 [25]. - **Long-term Market Potential**: The OCS market is projected to exceed $2 billion by 2029, with significant interest from major players like Microsoft, Oracle, and NVIDIA, indicating a shift towards OCS solutions [26][30]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Traditional electrical switches currently dominate the market, with an estimated 800,000 to 1 million units. However, OCS is expected to capture a 30% market share in the next few years, potentially reaching over 300,000 units by 2030 [30]. Additional Insights - **Technological Variants**: OCS technology includes various solutions such as MEMS, silicon-based liquid crystal, and piezoelectric ceramics, each with unique advantages and challenges [5][28]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Key suppliers for Google’s OCS switches include Lumentum, Claudeline, and Coherent, with significant contributions from domestic manufacturers like Saiwei Electronics and Guanghua Technology [19][32][33]. - **Adoption Trends**: While overseas data centers like Google have adopted OCS extensively, domestic centers are beginning to explore its use, indicating a gradual shift in the industry [29]. This comprehensive overview highlights the transformative potential of OCS technology in the data center industry, emphasizing its advantages, market dynamics, and future growth prospects.