1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, gold and silver prices showed significant upward trends. The London spot gold price rose by over 70% from the end - 2024 level, and the London spot silver price had a maximum annual increase of over 170%. [2][79][87] - In 2026, the outlook for the gold market remains optimistic. Continued fiscal expansion in major countries, expected dollar interest rate cuts, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support gold investment demand. The silver market is also expected to be positive, with both industrial and investment demand likely to remain strong. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Precious Metals Industry Chain - **Gold Industry Structure**: It includes upstream exploration and mining, mid - stream smelting and refining, and downstream consumption and recycling. Upstream involves geological exploration, mining, and beneficiation; mid - stream includes smelting and refining; downstream covers gold jewelry, investment and collection, industrial applications, and gold recycling. [13][14][16] - **Silver Industry Structure**: The upstream is mineral resource exploration and ore transportation. The mid - stream is silver smelting and metal comprehensive recycling. The downstream includes the jewelry industry, industrial applications, financial investment, and silver recycling. [18][19][23] Second Part: Introduction to Precious Metals Futures and Options Contracts - **Gold Futures Contracts and Delivery System**: The trading unit is 1000 grams/hand, and the contract has detailed specifications such as minimum price change and trading time. The delivery system includes physical delivery, with specific procedures and requirements. [33][37][42] - **Silver Futures Contracts and Delivery System**: The trading unit is 15 kilograms/hand. Similar to gold futures, it has its own contract specifications and delivery system. [51][56][60] - **Gold Futures Options Contracts**: It is an American - style option, allowing the buyer the right to buy or sell a certain amount of gold futures at a predetermined price. [65] - **Silver Futures Options Contracts**: Also an American - style option, it has specific contract terms such as trading unit, contract month, and exercise price. [71][72] Third Part: Review of Precious Metals Price Trends - **Gold Price Review**: From 2016 - 2025, it was a new bull market. In 2025, influenced by factors like the US tariff policy, Fed interest rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the gold price rose significantly. [75][77] - **Silver Price Review**: From 2021 - 2025, factors such as financial attributes, industrial demand, and speculative demand drove the silver price to exceed $80/ounce. In 2025, it had a strong upward trend. [85][87] Fourth Part: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Economy on Precious Metals Prices**: The expected start of the US interest - rate cut cycle supported the rise of precious metals prices. The US economic situation, including GDP growth, inflation, and employment, as well as the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, affected precious metals prices. The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. [96][100][110] - **Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices**: Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves in recent years, providing support for the gold market. In 2025, the net gold purchases by central banks decreased compared to 2024. [113] - **Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices**: Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold and affecting the supply - demand pattern of gold. [116] Fifth Part: Precious Metals Supply and Demand Analysis - **Gold Supply and Demand Analysis**: In 2025, the global gold supply was 5002.31 tons, and demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand being the main driving force. SHFE gold inventory increased, while COMEX gold inventory was relatively stable. [117][120][125] - **Silver Supply and Demand Analysis**: The global silver supply was expected to increase by 2% in 2025, and demand was expected to decrease by 1%. The inventories of SHFE, COMEX, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver had different trends. [131][132][138] Sixth Part: Precious Metals Market Arbitrage Analysis and Position Analysis - **Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures was mostly negative, and there were opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage and calendar - spread arbitrage. The gold - silver ratio fluctuated wildly. SHFE gold futures had net long positions from domestic institutions, and the settled funds increased with the rising gold price. [146][149][156] - **Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis**: The basis of SHFE silver futures was mostly negative, and there were positive spreads in the calendar - spread. Domestic institutions held net long positions, and the settled funds had different trends during the year. [166][170][173] Seventh Part: Precious Metals Options Analysis and Strategies - The implied volatility of gold and silver options fluctuated. For gold options, the put - call ratio indicated a bullish market. For silver options, investors may buy put options when the market is volatile. Different option strategies are proposed according to price and volatility expectations. [183][184] Eighth Part: Precious Metals Seasonal Analysis Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals are more likely to rise in March, April, and October and more likely to fall in June. [201] Ninth Part: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The Fed's interest - rate cut policy may support precious metals prices. [209] - **US Government Policy and its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, with a high fiscal deficit rate. Lower tariffs and a possible dovish Fed chair may be beneficial for precious metals. [213] - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic due to factors such as the weakening dollar, expected interest - rate cuts, and stagflation risks. [214] - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and a long - term bottom at $35/ounce. [218] Tenth Part: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations In 2026, factors such as the global macro - game situation, fiscal deficits in major economies, and geopolitical complexity are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy. [224] Eleventh Part: Hedging Cases of Precious Metals Enterprises ABC Gold Mining Company used gold futures to hedge against the risk of falling gold prices in 2025, effectively locking in the sales price. [227][228][233] Appendix: Statistics of Precious Metals - Related Stock Prices and Price Changes The document provides the stock prices and annual price changes of precious - metals - related companies at different positions in the industrial chain. [234][236]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - level factors, including the stabilization and recovery of PPI and abundant global liquidity, form dual core benefits driving the rise of the natural resources index. The resource ETF Bosera (510410), which tracks the Shanghai Securities Natural Resources Index, can effectively capture investment opportunities through balanced allocation in various resource sectors [3][6]. - Different resource sectors have their own favorable factors. For example, gold benefits from central bank strategic gold purchases, rigid supply, and the interest - rate cut cycle; silver is supported by industrial demand and low inventory; lithium and cobalt face supply contraction and demand growth; rare earths are supported by quota control and strategic attributes; coal supply is tightening while demand shows resilience; and crude oil prices are supported by demand recovery and supply control [3][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Natural Resources Industry Fundamental Analysis - **PPI and Global Liquidity**: PPI and global macro - liquidity are important external factors affecting the natural resources index. During the PPI upward phase, resource product prices rise, improving corporate performance and driving the index up. Global liquidity affects commodity prices through multiple channels, and in a period of abundant liquidity, it can push the index higher [16][18]. - **Gold**: In 2026, gold is in a dual resonance period of "long - term credit reshaping" and "medium - term liquidity easing", showing an upward trend. The recent price adjustment is not a signal of a trend reversal. Central bank gold purchases, investment demand, and supply constraints all support the price of gold [23]. - **Silver**: The sharp fluctuations in the silver market are a necessary process from "speculation - driven" to "value re - evaluation". Industrial demand from "photovoltaic + AI" and low inventory levels form a solid price bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the key support around $75 per ounce [34][35][38]. - **Copper**: Supply - side rigidities, such as mine production limitations and smelter profit compression, make copper prices prone to rise and difficult to fall. The supply in the first half of 2026 is expected to be tighter [44][45]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity is restricted, while demand is expected to improve. The industry is in a tight - balance state, and domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profits are expected to expand [52][55][59]. - **Lithium**: The supply - demand fundamentals of the lithium industry have reversed. Supply growth is slowing down, while demand from energy storage and power is increasing. The lithium market is expected to shift from surplus to shortage, and lithium prices are likely to rise [66][73][75]. - **Cobalt**: Congo - Kinshasa's implementation of export quotas will lead to a shortage of cobalt in the next two years. Enterprises with their own cobalt mines will benefit relatively, and the supply uncertainty is increasing [89][95]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry is currently at the bottom. Although the supply has been increasing, the downward space of nickel prices is limited. With the improvement of macro - demand and the implementation of Indonesian policies, nickel prices may rise [107][108][124]. - **Rare Earths**: Rare earths have significant strategic attributes. Domestic supply control is strengthening, and global trade frictions have increased their strategic value. Prices and valuations are expected to rise [127][135][136]. - **Tungsten**: Tungsten has strong supply rigidities due to resource and policy constraints. The supply is tight, and the price has increased significantly. In the future, new supply may slow down, and tool price increases will support the tungsten price [146][147][156]. - **Coal**: The supply of coal is tightening in the short and long term, while demand shows resilience. The coal price is expected to rise, but the decline in electricity prices may suppress the long - term price center [158][163][173]. - **Oil**: The supply of U.S. shale oil is limited, and OPEC has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices. Global oil demand is expected to continue to recover, and the oil price center is expected to be between $60 - $65 per barrel in 2026 [178][184][195]. 3.2 Shanghai Securities Natural Resources Index - The Shanghai Securities Natural Resources Index selects resource - related securities in Shanghai Stock Exchange. It has a balanced distribution in various resource sub - sectors, which can capture investment opportunities in different resource sectors and reduce risks [201][206]. - Historically, the index's revenue and net profit growth have fluctuated, but it shows strong resilience. Currently, it shows a bottom - reversal trend, and its revenue and net profit growth are expected to recover in 2026 - 2027 [206][207]. - Compared with other broad - based indexes, the Shanghai Securities Natural Resources Index has advantages in different time intervals [213]. 3.3 Bosera Natural Resources ETF (510410) - Bosera Natural Resources ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Securities Natural Resources Index. It uses a full - replication method for passive investment with strict risk - control targets [214]. - As of February 13, 2026, the ETF has achieved good returns and has a scale of 1.057 billion yuan, with good market liquidity. Its fund manager has rich financial experience, and the fund management company has a large asset - management scale [216].

Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase today, with the index returning to 3.8 stars [2] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) experienced gains, with small-cap stocks rising more significantly [3] - The low volatility index reached a high valuation after today's increase [3] - Value styles, including dividends, saw slight increases [4] - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, experienced more substantial gains [5] - Hong Kong stocks also rose overall, with gains similar to those in A-shares [6] Global Market Dynamics - From last Monday to Thursday, global stock and commodity markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping by 4% [7] - Concerns about the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affected market sentiment [8] - However, on Friday, the Federal Reserve indicated expectations of a continued decrease in inflation later this year [9] - A reduction in the dollar's inflation rate is favorable for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - This alleviated short-term liquidity concerns in the market [11] - Following this, global stock and commodity markets rebounded significantly on Friday night [12] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also saw a catch-up rally after opening on Monday [13] Interest Rate Outlook - Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, leading to increased global liquidity and asset valuations [14] - Global stock markets have risen approximately 30%, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have surged by 50-60% [14] - The abundance of liquidity is likely to result in significant increases in smaller assets, such as small-cap stocks and smaller markets [14] - There may be intermittent phases of liquidity tightening, as seen in April 2025 and early February [15][16] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates into 2026 [17] - A significant amount of maturing deposits in RMB will occur in the first half of 2026, contributing to overall liquidity [18] - In the latter half of 2026, the focus will shift to the trends in dollar interest rates, as the Fed will not remain in a rate-cutting cycle indefinitely [19] Upcoming Events and Publications - This week marks the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, with specific arrangements for live classes and fund operations [20][21][22] - A live session is scheduled for February 10 to discuss investment strategies for year-end bonuses and suitable investment options [24] - The performance report for the "Screw Nut" investment advisory portfolio will be released, showing a cumulative profit of 2.72 billion yuan and a holder profit ratio exceeding 90% [26] - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, focusing on the growing interest in dividend index funds [26] Investment Insights - The "Screw Nut" investment advisory has developed a gold bull-bear signal board to assist investors in evaluating gold valuations [29] - A clear and objective reference can help investors remain calm and make informed decisions [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise, while the AH premium has reached a phase low, leading to a divergence in opinions regarding the overvaluation of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Some industry insiders believe that the current AH premium is at a reasonable level based on the existing exchange rate and market environment, with potential for further narrowing of the AH premium amid a mid-term trend of RMB appreciation and USD weakening [1] - Hong Kong assets may benefit from abundant global liquidity and the return of foreign capital, especially if the US further cuts interest rates to improve global liquidity and AI companies continue to deliver strong performance [1]